Board 8 > The Russia Ukraine War appears to be continuing

(+) Yeah! (+)

On February 24th, Russia invaded Ukraine in a "special operation".

Donetsk and Luhansk oblast's supposedly were to be freed by Russia, which was their cassus belli.

The most logical reason for Russia's invasion was to take the Black Sea Coastline from Ukraine, if not all of it, to connect Russia to Crimea, end the Crimea water shortage caused by Ukraine damming the river down to Crimea, connect Russia all the way to Transistria, it's breakaway republic in Moldova they occupy, and to also deny Ukraine, and secure for Russia, all the oil found off the coastline of Ukraine in the Black Sea, to not let their grip on European energy dependence falter.

Russia began quick strikes towards the hearts of cities that they pounded, but could not bring into submission. This caused massive amounts of attrition to Russia as the supply lines couldn't withstand these sustained forward advances through hostile territory, which eventually led to Russia faltering and giving up on this plan of attack.

Russia has failed to gain air superiority. They have failed with their cyber warfare. This has robbed them of the ability to project and defend immensely in this war. Relatively cheap drones have done immense damage, and Russia has lacked this control of the airspace which was supposed to ensure their victory.

Russia eventually in a change of tactics did drive out Ukrainians, at great cost to Ukraine, out of the Donetsk area and secure it. As well as consolidated the Kherson Region, which arguably was handed over mostly to Russia by betrayal in the Ukrainian Ranks.

The last hold out in the south was Mariupol, where Ukraine held out as long as they could but were eventually cornered into a steel mill before eradicated.

From there, Russia has faltered in every line of attack since. Manpower and artillery being depleted, while Ukraine has reinforced with NATO trained men and almost endless equipment from the West.

Ukraine began their counter attack in earnest within this past week. So far, Russia seems to be on their heels in the Kharkiv Oblast, Kherson Region, and surprisingly somewhat even in Donetsk. The fog of war is great, and the propaganda on both sides is great. However, there is confirmations of Ukraine retaking villages in this counter offensive, with the ability to cut crucial supply lines of Russia with a little further movement. There is also rumors of large groups of Russians fleeing and of others being encircled.

This is mostly fueled by the ability of HIMARs that are long range artillery supplied by the United States, which has allowed Ukraine to decimate across a long range Russian assets and which seem to make the Russian AA S-300 and S-400s seems inadequate to defend against. Russia has had to flee Snake Island, remove their Black Sea Fleet from port being effectively neutralized, kept central command and ammo depots constantly under fire, Crimea now an actual target for Russia to have to defend, and also has keep pressure on destroying pontoons and bridges into the Kherson region, effectively strangling off supplies and cutting off Russian soldiers from the ability to reinforce properly.

This could be the point where Russia breaks completely and is forced to withdraw back. Or, Russia could stabilize at some point. With Russia trying to turn to Iran for drones and North Korea for ammunition and artillery, Russia may not have much left in the tank, in a drastic turnaround from an operation expected to take a month to topple Kyiv to potentially an unmitigated disaster and perhaps existential crisis for Putin and Russia itself.

Thanks for the updates.

War were declared

This is what the counter offensive in the NORTHEAST looks like around Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567459059527290882
https://i.imgur.com/NUImTIp.png

Balakliya by most accounts has already fallen to Ukraine, as well as Volokhiv Yar and possibly further.

This is significant because if Ukraine can take all the way to Kupiansk, it can potentially cut off all supply to the Izium region below it.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567395435685216256

This is an overall look at what is going on and showing the counteroffensives.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1567284904659918849

Or perhaps if you need this explained to you in complete nerd:

https://twitter.com/himarstime/status/1561432147864559616

Tag

Peace___Frog posted...

Thanks for the updates.

Yeah, this. Also tag.

Corrik7 posted...

the Crimea water shortage caused by Ukraine damming the river

Did not know about this. There has to have been a reason for this that's at least partially Putin's fault, related to the way Russia took over Crimea. The Soviet superiority complex over their former turf is scary.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Yeah, this. Also tag.

Did not know about this. There has to have been a reason for this that's at least partially Putin's fault, related to the way Russia took over Crimea. The Soviet superiority complex over their former turf is scary.

I mean, they straight up dammed it to say fuck you to Russia for taking their territory. So, yes, it was due to that reason.

One of the first things Russia did when they attacked was blow that dam up lol.

Thank you for this, I've been wondering how the war was going but I'm too lazy to seek out the information myself.

Sad to hear about Mariupol

Everywhere Donetsk is listed should say Donbas btw.

Corrik7 posted...

One of the first things Russia did when they attacked was blow that dam up lol.

Damn. But at least it'll be fine if Ukraine retakes Crimea. They wouldn't need the dam anymore.

And I can't think of a bigger "fuck you, Vlad" statement than taking territory FROM the USSR. The ones notorious for taking land. It would certainly be a much worse look for Moscow than when they were low on allies in 1991 and needed to fake a revolution to save face. They already used that gambit, so I don't know what else they can do. I can't help but think Putin will be deposed. He looks like the worst Soviet dictator since Stalin. They will want to get rid of him.

https://mobile.twitter.com/noclador/status/1567467507665051648
Always take armchair generals with a grain of st ofc.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

I can't help but think Putin will be deposed. He looks like the worst Soviet dictator since Stalin. They will want to get rid of him.

He's pretty popular over there

Obligatory mention of the fact that the territory angle is nothing to do with the Soviet Union. Modern Ukraines borders came from the Soviet Union in the first place, and Lenin and Trotsky were both big on Ukrainian sovereignty. This is Russian Empire stuff.

LightningStrikes posted...

and Lenin and Trotsky were both big on Ukrainian sovereignty.

I don't think that's the slam dunk you think it is.

Reading the opening post feels surreal, it's like I'm reading about the events of a fictional war in some novel. But it's actually happening in our world.

kevwaffles posted...

I don't think that's the slam dunk you think it is.

Its not meant to be a slam dunk, Im just saying that in these topics some have had this weird desire to frame things in terms of communism and the Soviet Union when it isnt really related. The irredentism Putin is using is much older than that.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1567883017015726082

https://twitter.com/praisethesteph/status/1567924635538276359

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1567981433611771904

LightningStrikes posted...

Its not meant to be a slam dunk, Im just saying that in these topics some have had this weird desire to frame things in terms of communism and the Soviet Union when it isnt really related. The irredentism Putin is using is much older than that.

I wish I lived in the world where Soviet territorial policy wasn't directed by anyone after Lenin and Trotsky.

Corrik7 posted...

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1567981433611771904

Why the hell is this marked as sensitive content?

Thank you for the update.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568312857757978624

It's possibly in parts propaganda but Ukraine is reported to have pincers Kup'yans'k from the south and west and possibly taken the city.

Supposedly Russians are in full on panic and fleeing. The 202th division is said to have been abandoned by all their command and roaming communication less in panic. The 237th is supposedly ceased to exist due to every member being dead or in critical condition in the hospital. Ukraine is supposedly running out of room for where to keep Russian POWs. And Izium which taking Kup'yans'k was supposed to isolate and cut off from supplies is supposedly already under attack by Ukrainian forces in the city.

Take with a grain of salt, but everything being heard so far is a total rout in the north in the Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1568376739910361088

https://twitter.com/GoncharenkoUa/status/1568523643000438787

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1568536536844574725

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1568467240869150727?

Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 50km in places which is massive, should be the biggest changes in the frontlines since spring easily. Russia were not prepared for the counterattack in Kharkiv at all.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper

this guy is the best way I've seen to look at changes in who controls what territory.

MariaTaylor posted...

Reading the opening post feels surreal, it's like I'm reading about the events of a fictional war in some novel. But it's actually happening in our world.

Yeah.

https://twitter.com/EssexPR/status/1568641209371082752

I know this is good for Ukraine, but I feel like this makes Russia much more dangerous. This would be humiliating for Putin, and he doesn't seem like the kind of guy to let himself be humiliated. Taking some some territory would let him maybe claim victory and walk away, but if Ukraine is taking back stuff Russia has held for years now, I could see Putin doing something stupid to "save" face.

It's really looking like Putin and Russia will come out as big losers. With sanctions from everywhere and the severe blow to the Russian military, its going to be very difficult for Russia to turn around from all this

Suprak_the_Stud posted...

I know this is good for Ukraine, but I feel like this makes Russia much more dangerous. This would be humiliating for Putin, and he doesn't seem like the kind of guy to let himself be humiliated. Taking some some territory would let him maybe claim victory and walk away, but if Ukraine is taking back stuff Russia has held for years now, I could see Putin doing something stupid to "save" face.

Duma officials have criticized Putin and got fined for it I believe yesterday and some calls for him to resign have been made I believe.

It looks we hit a breaking point this week. For months Ukraine focused on destroying Russian logistics, while Russia focused on propaganda. Now we have the breakthrough.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-world-news-kharkiv-e06b2aa723e826ed4105b5f32827f577

Well, there it is.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568755366254755840

I don't know what to make of this Ukraine counterattack. It seems so easy to say "it's a good thing" but is there any chance this is some weird feign on Russia's part as part of a larger strategy to mobilize troops somewhere else?

Seanchan posted...

I don't know what to make of this Ukraine counterattack. It seems so easy to say "it's a good thing" but is there any chance this is some weird feign on Russia's part as part of a larger strategy to mobilize troops somewhere else?

Doubtful. Russia is probably trying to muster more manpower and possibly pause as long as possible to get them. However, it doesn't look good for them at the moment. They are gonna dig in eventually somewhere. I don't think Ukraine can keep this offensive up indefinitely. The biggest thing to wait for is if they open a 4th line of attack down in the Zaporhiva Region and try to bisect the Russian presence. Dangerous, but it could help them roll up Kherson.

Azerbaijan has begun shelling Armenia. Russia is an ally of Armenia and Armenia has invoked the CTSO to protect it. However, Russia is kind of busy atm.

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have begun border clashes with one another. They are of course part of the CTSO as well.

A politician in Georgia has asked to make a referendum to start a second front and go to war with Russia also to reclaim its lands Russia took from it.

Corrik7 posted...

Azerbaijan has begun shelling Armenia. Russia is an ally of Armenia and Armenia has invoked the CTSO to protect it. However, Russia is kind of busy atm.

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have begun border clashes with one another. They are of course part of the CTSO as well.

A politician in Georgia has asked to make a referendum to start a second front and go to war with Russia also to reclaim its lands Russia took from it.

I don't think any of these are really gonna go anywhere but it's interesting how everyone is trying to take advantange of "Russia is busy".

Yeah, the borders of the former Soviet nations were essentially drawn to promote conflict. The change in the balance of power is emboldening some nations to take/regain land.

Corrik7 posted...

Azerbaijan has begun shelling Armenia. Russia is an ally of Armenia and Armenia has invoked the CTSO to protect it. However, Russia is kind of busy atm.

Kyrgistan and Tajikistan have begun border clashes with one another. They are of course part of the CTSO as well.

A politician in Georgia has asked to make a referendum to start a second front and go to war with Russia also to reclaim its lands Russia took from it.

Im seeing people knee-jerk side with Azerbaijan here just because Russia is closer with Armenia, but the impression I have is that Azerbaijan is probably the bad guy here

situation is a huge mess

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1570739273191620608?t=jLIQl8xtPoA49kF04j1O_Q&s=19

I am surprised they bothered to dig at all.

That was a great unbiased summary in the intro post. Thanks TC.

htaeD posted...

I am surprised they bothered to dig at all.

Even if you assume they are completely heartless, it makes sense from an avoiding disease/smell perspective.

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1570711777838788609?s=20&t=-997pS7QWA7lU1FeDctaJg

im not too familiar with those two countries or what their deal with each other is. I was curious to see how large they were, and its kind of wild to think about such small places going to war coming from the context of the US.

population wise its comparable to if Michigan invaded Indiana

imagine if Indiana had to maintain its own standing army, and have its own tanks and shit

The first three minutes of this video gives you an idea on how messed up the borders of former Soviet Union nations are.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZdkqqjosCM

There's a territory owned by Uzbekistan that's completely surrounded by Kyrgyzstan, but is 99% ethnically Tajikistan

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1571650468559917057?s=20&t=jB3rdjr7Rf-KrJh-jwUfUA