Board 8 > Hearthstone Topic - C-C-C-COMBO META

(+) Yeah! (+)

Oh we are getting the Vandarr Drekthar refund soon

also Korrak getting extended since I opened that too

Well, couple days of data now, we can take a look at how the death knights are performing. Drawn winrate relative to other cards in the decks that are running them.

1. Kurtrus: about 8% higher drawn winrate than his deck (median drawn winrate 59%, Kurtrus drawn winrate 67%).
https://hsreplay.net/decks/kz2qcnMFib4JG1tNy4oQnc/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

2. Scabbs--I'm going to skip over the most played Rogue list, cause it's thief rogue, which I'm assuming won't be the most played list in a week or two. Second most played is quest rogue, where he's good. About 3% above the deck median. (Deck median of 61% drawn winrate, Scabbs 64%).
https://hsreplay.net/decks/kh9V8nLs2uUi6WEdOHo3Og/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

3. Cariel, about 2% higher than the median drawn winrate in Libram Paladin. Up to 5% above the deck median in some decks with less antisynergy, but Libram is the most played paladin deck for now.
https://hsreplay.net/decks/kXaU1gy8t2DSIZ3lXzZbYd/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

4. Bru'kan, about 2% higher than the median drawn winrate in Freeze Shaman. Median drawn winrate of the deck is 57%, Bru'kan is 59%. Still enough to be highest drawn winrate in the deck.

5. Tamsin--I'm assuming Owl Warlock will just drop off in popularity--I already see top 100 legend streamers say that they're not playing against it anymore, and HSReplay released a "best decks to climb with" that had quest warlock and not owl warlock. In owl decks she's 2% above the median for the deck, but slotted into quest handlock she's...roughly at the median for the deck (deck median 66%, tamsin 66%) and not even being run in the turbo fatigue questlocks or zoolocks.
https://hsreplay.net/decks/f6a6HTokOgXjtXRp0utzB/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

6. Tavish: about 2% higher drawn winrate than his deck (median drawn winrate 57%. Tavish drawn winrate 59%). Not actually run in the most played hunter deck, though (face hunter).
https://hsreplay.net/decks/9Y2zZWGPJ9QKyAn6nJkfhh/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

7. Guff: roughly median drawn winrate in his deck (median drawn winrate is 59%, his drawn winrate is 59%)
https://hsreplay.net/decks/O6zZAqLBJ8Xr6uDtefyxgg/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

8. Xyrella: roughly median drawn winrate in the deck that seems designed for her (big resurrect deathrattle priest). Deck median 64%, Xyrella 64%.
https://hsreplay.net/decks/NvplEz1P8HBWTKjwXv5aEb/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

9. Dawngrasp--I'm not going to count big spell mage as a real deck, cause lol it is flopping hard (Dawngrasp is the best card in that deck, but the deck has a 40% winrate). But I will count No Minion Mage as a maybe still playable deck that runs dawngrasp, and dawngrasp is roughly average in the deck (median drawn winrate for the deck 55%, Dawngrasp drawn winrate 55%):
https://hsreplay.net/decks/65dQFnEKgW56mbt4kFp0ee/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

10. Rokarra: data is really spotty, probably due to small sample size. Quest warriors are not running her. There's a control warrior list where she's maybe 1% above median for the deck, but also a Captain Galvanger charge warrior deck where she has the lowest drawn winrate, about 3% below the median for the deck. Might not be last in a month or so when there have been a couple waves of buffs and nerfs, but meta's pretty hostile for now.
https://hsreplay.net/decks/ZcBmIxuOWjArakiz6GiZx/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD
https://hsreplay.net/decks/w91Pbzvkb9ZbbffC0sAbC/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD

FFDragon posted...

so maybe I'll try some burgle rouge

so I did this, and my shitty burgle/disruption deck already peaked after match one

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/9/2/8/AAAqtIAACr24.jpg

If you were to tell me 4 years ago Freeze Shaman would be tier 1, I would have laughed but here we are

If you were to tell me it would take 4 years for it to happen, I'd believe you 100%.

If you were to tell me during united in stormwind that freeze shaman would be meta in the very next set, I would have laughed.

Usually decks like these have some amount of buildup, periods of releasing some support but not enough support for a few sets in a row before they are good enough.

When the legendary was leaked during spoiler season, everyone was like "uhh...does Shaman even have a single freeze spell in standard?"

See also: the current state of big spell mage.

I think I had a 20% winrate trying big spell mage

The way some of these decks turn the game around in a single turn is kinda maddening. Druid and priest have both been losing, losing, losing...haha jk, guys. Let me completely up-end the game and put gigantic taunts on the board you can't beat and heal a ton while I'm at it.

I don't know what Burgle/Maestra Rogue is at but it's the only fun deck I've found so far.

Having played quite a bit of Freeze Shaman, what makes it work is how good windchill is. Its even nuttier that you have 4 with sleetbreaker. The 4 mana spell isnt frost but being able to generate 3/4s is pretty good value all around and the 5 mana nova guy is pretty decent when you make a big one and then Battlemaster next turn

Im still kinda unsold on Frostbite and Bearon but I have won against combo decks with the former and board centric with the latter. Mutanus just feels good, especially with the gavel and Lightning bloom.

UltimaterializerX posted...

The decks youre speaking of have sub 45% win rates, aka tier 4.

Considering I'm not following the meta, either, my win rate is more like 30%, so...

I mean some things can have a low win rate and still be miserable to play against. Even when Priest was bad and I had a great win rate against them, I still hated matching up against them because it just wasn't fun regardless of result.

That's kinda my point. Some decks feel bad to lose to because they overpower and manhandle you from the start. And some gradually win against you in the long game in a way you know is going to happen. But when a deck is genuinely losing, and then they play one card (in the case of druid) and it just activates their whole deck and mostly deactivates yours, and in that same moment they somehow crank out an enormous wall to prevent you from just winning via reach, it feels like Blizzard might as well just have printed a card that reads "Haha, you lose!"

I think my last 10 BG games have been 7th or 8th place. I've gotta get a new approach or something because whatever I'm doing is NOT working anymore. Are you supposed to stay on 3 or 4 until you have an insane build now or something? Obviously that's simplifying BGs way too much but I don't even know where to start anymore.

Ironic, because I've been on a surprisingly good run the last few games. I always tank whenever something is changed (not on purpose), and then climb back up. That means Blizzard is probably about to change something again.

I wouldn't say I'm doing anything particularly magical. I do sometimes stay down on 2, though, if I have a hero that lends itself to it. Mostly I've just been fortunate that my pieces have actually fit together cohesively lately. Also been winning on occasion with menagerie, which is not something I've been seeing much of lately, but I had a good Aggam game last night.

7 of the 32 decks brought to Worlds arent OTK combos

Should be fun and interactive

At least every class is represented, though.

...

...

skullbone posted...

I think my last 10 BG games have been 7th or 8th place. I've gotta get a new approach or something because whatever I'm doing is NOT working anymore. Are you supposed to stay on 3 or 4 until you have an insane build now or something? Obviously that's simplifying BGs way too much but I don't even know where to start anymore.

Without seeing how you play or anything, I'd say the 2 biggest things to note about BGs right now are Avenge and leveling curves. Avenge is the strongest thing in BGs right now and in many lobbies it's what you want to go for. Nestmatron and Lightspawn are the 2 strongest cards in all of BGs at the moment and the demon avenge unit is still quite strong. Meta right now is triple into an Avenge unit and use that as direction to get you to the end game. Tripling into 5s is generally bad - really the only things you want on 5 as far as direction right now are mama bear and nomi, and even with nomi you want him after you have a lightspawn ideally. If you aren't in an avenge lobby (no eles, mechs, demons) then if you aren't hitting nestmatron you can look to tripling into 5s/6s for direction. One of the tricky things is things are so hit or miss in terms of tempo discovers. If you are hitting avenge on 4 or stuff like felbat on 6 then you are getting top 4. If you whiff there isn't much you can do other than try to salvage a 4th. Whether you go to 6 anymore depends on your current setup. Demons need to get to 6, eles absolutely don't, etc. Then, after you've found direction, the end game becomes all about getting out of your direction and into poison scam because that's how games are won. BGs late game, at least at higher MMRs, is basically who can be strong enough to get into poison comp. Reborn Maexxna made poison even more mandatory unfortunately.

As far as levelling curves, I'd say the 'standard' levelling curve is probably sub-optimal for at least half of the heroes in the game at this point. There's a lot of warrior curve and Jeef curve in the game right now, with some 3 on 3 stuff, Rafaam curve, and a couple heroes on their own plan. Generally it boils down to the fact that a lot of direction is found on/around tier 4 right now, so if you are taking too long to get there or aren't tripling into 4 then you're being left behind when everyone is looking for the same stuff. The bigger picture is that tier 2 simply sucks. Tier 1 offers basically the same strength, offers better units for Avenge comps, and tier 2 is significantly worse than 3 so you don't want to be spending much time on 2 at all in most instances.

In terms of unit comps:

Dragons: Get to 3, find Tarecgosa, triple into promodrake, find more of those 2, triple into Nadina. Kalecgos is dead.

Beasts: Usual Parrot/Goldrinn comp is still strong. Bird buddy is surprisingly good tempo. Hopefully use a good econ hero to get to 5/6 and try to kill the players greeding avenge.

Mechs: Interesting because they have good units on each tier starting with 3. Ideal comp is Parrot/Buster/Baron with a divine shield and a couple Mecherels. Tank is a stupid unit and can absolutely farm in the mid-game.

Elementals: Triple into Lightspawn (or steal it with Scabbs because why not) as fast as possible. Greed the absolute crap out of it until you're getting 30/30 or better elementals. Use your health as a resource as much as possible for the greed. Triple into Nomi, that's your transition out of lightspawn, then just find cleave/DS eles and win. No need to go to 6 until it's safe.

Demons: Hitting the avenge unit early is nice. If so you are just using typical stuff like Acolyte and 1/1 demon to farm and use the econ to quickly level to 6 and hit felbat. If not, you're probably using early wrath weaver and/or juggelrs for tempo and getting to 5/6 that way. Cute strat is to have lightspawn early, get up to large eles in shop, then transition to felbat demon comp that takes advantage of eating large elementals in shop.

Murlocs: Rare to be playing murlocs until the end game unless you are Flurgl or you have a compelling reason. Usually used as the late game transition to poison scam. Sefin is nuts and I'll take it in most any comp. One thing about leveling curves is I will say I hate every curve that isn't standard curve on Flurgl.

Quilboars: Not in a great spot. Usually I think you're here if you get groundshaker/bonker/aggem as consolation prizes and trying to get 2nd-4th. I think boars really depend on hero now. Some can still make a lot of use out of shaker comps. Dynamic Duo still a strong unit, but yeah this is a comp that's just hoping to get into top 4.

Pirates: Not the strongest, but buffs helped, and still one of the more fun strats. If you are getting econ (via stuff like nestmatron or your hero power) then Peggy is underrated, and the buff to Tony was actually kinda nuts. Usually going something like Peggy/Hoggar for scaling to get into a late game comp, or using an Eliza discover from a triple to get into the usual scam comp.

Menagerie: In a really bad spot right now. Early lightfang/Aggem can be a consolation prize to sneak into top 4, but again in most lobbies (a lot really depends on available tribes) you are trying to find 4s and 6s instead of 5s. Best way to get here is nestmatron and brann for stats and economy to get to 6, then you are ahead of the game in finding Amalgadons and getting the endgame everyone wants. Remove Amalgadon from the game please.

Very nice guide! Appreciate the information. I have a pretty good understanding of comps and what to grab when I see it but I think my biggest pivoting into the mid game. Like when I don't get a clear direction on turn 5 I usually just try to improve my board but then I feel like I'm massively falling behind. The worst is when you try to grab a few tempo cards and STILL lose that round. It feels impossible to come back at that point.

Looks like we are getting some balance changes after worlds, focusing on a number of the tourney decks

Think it will be Celestial Alignment, Moarg, and one of Cutlass/Octobot/Scabbs. Although honestly I think Snowfall Guardian would change the meta the most if it was bumped up one mana.

The main deck I'd really like to see nerfed out of the game is Celestial Alignment. It's a fun idea but the swing turn from Druid is so crazy strong it just never feels fun on the other side. I'd like to see something like "Set the cost of cards in both hands and deck to 1. Set your mana crystals to 0 mana and your opponent's to 0 mana at the end of their next turn".

A little wordy but it allows your opponent to dump 5/6 cards on their next turn to counteract the potential swingy turn from Druid. As it stands now it's basically "Your opponent skips their next turn and you play 100 mana worth of stuff" which is way too silly.

Just spent an hour losing every match in Overwatch so I decided to chill with some BGs instead.

Literally lost on TURN 9 with this comp

https://i.imgur.com/GDX3Az2.png

I'm not exaggerating when I say that after the Overwatch tilt I almost uninstalled Hearthstone after this match

For those curious what I lost to he had an amalgadon (with taunt, divine shield, poison), Brann, Foe Reaper, a 60/50 Swolefin, and 2 poison giving murlocs who proceeded to give all 3 murlocs poison. I took 22 damage the turn before because someone left the game early and I played the first place guy.

Got around to doing the legend push, played Handlock though honestly I drew Dreadlich once, just the tempo from Flesh Giants was usually enough.

Surprised I didn't see any Shamans though, think the class is pretty strong

I watched three matches of grandmasters and all three games were decided by turn one trogg.

Lol

Every time someone complains about Trogg my brain gets confused and it takes me a second to realize Tunnel Trogg was not in fact added to the base set.

FFDragon posted...

I watched three matches of grandmasters and all three games were decided by turn one trogg.

Lol

The current woirld championships? Yeah, see, 75% of the decks at the world championships are combo decks, cause they decied to do no balance changes before the world championships

And it turns out face hunter with turn 1 Trogg into turn 2 buff spell is good against combo decks that spend their early turns casting spells to draw cards.

https://playhearthstone.com/en-us/news/23758614

Well they just nerfed trogg into the ground so...

Trogg was WAY too good of locking opponent out of casting spells period. Solitaire decks aren't the only ones that play spells.

These hero power Mage buffs sound interesting. That was one of the first decks I tried and I was very surprised that wildfire went away after using Dawngrasp. Now he'll be able to come down on turn 7 with a 4 damage hero power immediately which sounds cool.

The Gmail that is my name or the xdragon one?

I assume the latter since I haven't checked it in forever and is my slush email but I want to make sure it didn't go to spam or something.

I'll check both when I get off work regardless though

Yesssss I love that wildfire change