Board 8 > How confident are you about the election tomorrow compared to 2016?

(+) Yeah! (+)

I've been trying to gauge the general feel from the circles I frequented back in 2016, figuring they might be in a bit of a panic considering everything coming out now seems to say Biden is going to steamroll and I was pretty surprised to see them even MORE confident than they were last time.

Last time I was extremely confident Trump was going to win, I had been since the summer. And fuck whatever Ulti tells you, I was the first person on Board 8 to say Trump was gonna win.

That said, I am far less confident this time around to the point where I think it's a coin flip. I don't totally buy into the polls considering how wrong they were last time, but Trump still needs just about everything to go his way on Election Day with so little margin for error.

I know this place was SUPER confident in Hillary last time around and I expect it's similar now but I just wanted to see what you guys were thinking/feeling going into the festivities tomorrow.

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I have no fucking idea, man.

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Also in case you guys were wondering, I am a battleground PA voter who is voting for Kanye West tomorrow.

Can't wait to see both sides to react to THAT Facebook post tomorrow lmao

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paperwarior posted...

I have no fucking idea, man.

shit. I forgot to add the "COMPLETE TOSSUP" option

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Kinda hard to tell. Intellectually a little more confident (I believed 538 last time on a logical level, but probably not on a gut level). Biden's position is objectively better than Hillary's based on the data we have, but now that gut feeling of "but this couldn't possible actually happen" has been killed.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

Also in case you guys were wondering, I am a battleground PA voter who is voting for Kanye West tomorrow.

extremely small improvement over your 2016 vote!


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Mr Lasastryke posted...

extremely small improvement over your 2016 vote!

I'll take it!

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For those of you who are less confident in Biden than you were in Hillary, what's the reasoning?

Mistrust of the polling done so far or do you think Trump's gonna get rid of some of the mail-in ballots?

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I was so sure Hillary was going to win. Like 100% sure. Polls had never been this wrong before.

Sure Biden is doing better than Hillary, but yeah, now that we know what happened last time, it might happen again.


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I just have zero faith in America right now. We're a completely selfish lot, and if Trump wins then we deserve 4 more years of Covid 19. And just to be clear, I'm saying that I don't think Trump will deal with COVID19 and it'll be here to stay until we get a President who will actually act on it and not withdraw us from the World Health Organization on a whim.

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After 2016 I can't help but feel nervous no matter how certain things feel.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

For those of you who are less confident in Biden than you were in Hillary, what's the reasoning?

Mistrust of the polling done so far or do you think Trump's gonna get rid of some of the mail-in ballots?

last time I basically didnt consider Hillary losing a possibility, and now my faith in anything working out in a remotely good way is broken.
Im just a fundamentally more pessimistic person now than I was then.
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You could legit show me the results right now and biden is ahead at 99% of the votes and I still wouldn't have faith in him

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Kinda hard to tell. Intellectually a little more confident (I believed 538 last time on a logical level, but probably not on a gut level). Biden's position is objectively better than Hillary's based on the data we have, but now that gut feeling of "but this couldn't possible actually happen" has been killed.

This, plus the looming possibility (likelihood?) of shenanigans

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Also this is 2020. It feels like anything that can go wrong, will go wrong just as a fuck you to everybody. Not much good has come out of this year. At least not in terms of world events.

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Biden will definitely win both the popular and electoral vote. Whether that even matters, I do not know

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I voted for Keanu Reeves.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

I literally called it the day he announced.

Sure you did. Back when you were a Colts fan still.

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it's like when it's real obvious the face is winning the belt at wrestlemania but the heel does have some goons and you never know when Vince is gonna be Vince

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I would hope people don't discount the degree of non-vocal Trump supporters this year like they did 4 years ago. I feel like due to everything nowadays, there's still a large group of them, even if it feels like there's a lot more vocal group now.

That said, I still think it's a toss up. I thought Trump was probably going to win last year, but it was more of a "I won't be surprised if he wins" kind of deal. This year I feel much of the same.

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It felt inevitable that Clinton would win in 2016, and it feels like that for Biden this year.

Also Ulti you may still get some people to bite on your reverse jinx but I know you think Trump's gonna win.

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DeathChicken posted...

Biden will definitely win both the popular and electoral vote. Whether that even matters, I do not know

I'd say low end of probably for the electoral vote and high end of probably for the popular vote, but otherwise this is about where I'm at. That's also about how I was feeling in 2016, except I had no reason to doubt the true electoral vote winner would be duly elected back then, so I'm less confident in Biden by default.

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Less confident. Trump has overtly promised to fuck with the vote, and Republicans in power everywhere are already trying to do so. People (seemingly with the blessing of the police) are also intimidating and obstructing voters.
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I would be absolutely shocked if Trump won the popular vote

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Everything coming out now is pointing to a potential slight win by Trump. Which is different than it was yesterday. Or this morning.

Entirely wild race.

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I would be honestly surprised if Trump didn't win this time around. The Democratic party is trying its best to run the exact same as it did in 2016.

There are two major things that are different

1. People who voted for trump initially voted for him despite the fact the man could have led us into nuclear holocaust. Now we know Trump won't do that, and he has run a presidency without doing anything disastrous (that these voters care about) so they're more assured of their vote. I imagine a lot of people on the fence fell for Trump the past 4 years.
2. Everyone who wants Trump out is more motivated than 2016, so literally anyone who can vote is doing so. In 2016 trump was the joke vote so he wasn't taken seriously. Now lots more liberals are activated.

Those two kinda cancel each other out so I guess Trump by a semi-wide margin.

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MawiIe posted...

There are two major things that are different

1. People who voted for trump initially voted for him despite the fact the man could have led us into nuclear holocaust. Now we know Trump won't do that, and he has run a presidency without doing anything disastrous (that these voters care about) so they're more assured of their vote. I imagine a lot of people on the fence fell for Trump the past 4 years.
2. Everyone who wants Trump out is more motivated than 2016, so literally anyone who can vote is doing so. In 2016 trump was the joke vote so he wasn't taken seriously. Now lots more liberals are activated.

you kinda missed covid.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

Hopeful he will win but I legitimately do think Biden has it. It legitimately would take a miracle for Trump to win this.

I thought you had money on Biden. Why the hope?

Kinglicious posted...

Everything coming out now is pointing to a potential slight win by Trump. Which is different than it was yesterday. Or this morning.

Entirely wild race.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1323346502899683333?s=19

let's not be silly

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Kinglicious posted...

Everything coming out now is pointing to a potential slight win by Trump. Which is different than it was yesterday. Or this morning.

Entirely wild race.

Oh? 538 seems to have better odds for Biden now than they did recently. What came out today that says a win for Trump will happen? The only major thing I know about is the Texas drive through ruling, which I would think helps Biden.
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The main thing to realize is Wang is full of shit.

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Alanna82 posted...

I was so sure Hillary was going to win. Like 100% sure. Polls had never been this wrong before.

Sure Biden is doing better than Hillary, but yeah, now that we know what happened last time, it might happen again.

pretty much this

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A little less confident, but mostly because there are more Trump supporters than I thought. All the conservatives I knew who HATED Trump before the election suddenly fell in love with him.

But I do think Biden will win it. Trump has done nothing to expand his base. He's mishandled COVID19. And he's definitely motivated the Democrats in a way that almost no candidate can do against a moderate candidate who everyone doesn't hate. (Remember: Many Republicans sung the praises of Biden before Trump was elected)

Mac Arrowny posted...

Oh? 538 seems to have better odds for Biden now than they did recently. What came out today that says a win for Trump will happen? The only major thing I know about is the Texas drive through ruling, which I would think helps Biden.

trend-wise trump's had some polls where he gained a lot of strength fast over the past couple days (Iowa, Florida) but for today it's mostly been about him having multiple PA polls show that he's with a slight lead. basically things have inched closer over the past week but was this afternoon/evening when PA stuff favoring trump became more notable.

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ExTha how can you vote Kanye, from a positions standpoint? Find a better troll option
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how is kanye running anyway? didn't he submit his paperwork too late?

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

how is kanye running anyway? didn't he submit his paperwork too late?

Its state by state. Some he did, some he didnt
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he was just that inspired by kanye on rogan.


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I voted Thursday last week and couldn't get over how surreal it was seeing Kanye West on the ballot.

I guess voting for him is one way to halfway vote for Trump.

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Not feeling confident at all, but I wasnt in 2016 either.

Mr Lasastryke posted...

you kinda missed covid.

Literally no one cares about the deaths from covid except for people who were never voting for trump in the first place.

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Yeah but at least Kanyes positions are in line with your beliefs
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I have a lot of friends in politics and poli sci from university who are super confident in Biden. I'm not so much feeling the same. Here's hoping.

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thing is extha is in a swing state. in the swing state, PA.


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MawiIe posted...

Literally no one cares about the deaths from covid except for people who were never voting for trump in the first place.

What a weird way to phrase the majority of people are concerned about COVID deaths

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Tbh you should've at least voted for JoJo, ExTha. She's bound to get more third party votes.

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