Current Events > Antifar's official electoral college prediction

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Antifar
10/28/20 6:11:12 PM
#1:


https://i.imgur.com/SpR0urm.png

There's not really polling reason to suggest this as an outcome, just a hunch that Biden will underperform expectations in states with a lot of Hispanic voters (namely FL, TX, Nevada, and Arizona) but do well enough elsewhere to win.

Screencap this to make fun of me when I'm wrong.
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FlameTurtle
10/28/20 6:11:54 PM
#2:


I like mine better.

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mach25687
10/28/20 6:12:28 PM
#3:


What the fuck are wrong with the Hispanic voters?

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Zero_Destroyer
10/28/20 6:13:10 PM
#4:


Raltson's data on NV has me thinking Biden wins it by double digits. The rest I agree with, but I'm 50/50 on AZ and NC.

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UnfairRepresent
10/28/20 6:13:25 PM
#5:


mach25687 posted...
What the fuck are wrong with the Hispanic voters?
Nothing "wrong" they just tend to have a conservative streak

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monkmith
10/28/20 6:14:28 PM
#6:


does this take into account trump getting the supreme court to block the counting of early votes.

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Zero_Destroyer
10/28/20 6:15:17 PM
#7:


also i really don't think Dems take the senate lol the margins are too thin in AZ/NC/ME for every outcome to be dem favored especially when a lot of polls show MI as close and AL is long gone. Only sure seat gain Dems have is CO

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PatrickMahomes
10/28/20 6:15:41 PM
#8:


Minnesota will turn red. Screenshot this post.

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Doom_Art
10/28/20 6:16:09 PM
#9:


Same as one of mine but I have Biden taking NV and AZ

I would be incredibly shocked if Biden loses Nevada.

In a good night I also have him taking FL and GA

If things are excellent I also toss OH and TX in there

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Antifar
10/28/20 6:16:57 PM
#10:


monkmith posted...
does this take into account trump getting the supreme court to block the counting of early votes.

No, I won't pretend to guess how that'll shake out, except to say that it won't be good
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Zero_Destroyer
10/28/20 6:18:02 PM
#11:


PatrickMahomes posted...
Minnesota will turn red. Screenshot this post.

no lol

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Doom_Art
10/28/20 6:19:33 PM
#12:


Zero_Destroyer posted...
also i really don't think Dems take the senate lol the margins are too thin in AZ/NC/ME for every outcome to be dem favored especially when a lot of polls show MI as close and AL is long gone. Only sure seat gain Dems have is CO
Lolwat

I mean the other ones you've mentioned have had the Democrat ahead consistently since the early Summer either by mid/high single digits (NC/ME) or high single/double digits (AZ)

If we're talking GA or SC then I'd agree that they're unlikely to flip given how close the margins are

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Intro2Logic
10/28/20 6:19:41 PM
#13:


Zero_Destroyer posted...
also i really don't think Dems take the senate lol the margins are too thin in AZ/NC/ME for every outcome to be dem favored especially when a lot of polls show MI as close and AL is long gone. Only sure seat gain Dems have is CO
Iowa too

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Doom_Art
10/28/20 6:20:57 PM
#14:


Intro2Logic posted...
Iowa too
I mean polling there has been good for Democrats but I'm skeptical

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Zero_Destroyer
10/28/20 6:21:17 PM
#15:


also i'll pitch in and say I think the SC will give Trump the election even if Biden wins unless he slams Trump pretty hard. If Biden doesn't win one of TX/GA/FL the EC margins will be akin to the 2016/2004 results and that'll be all Trump needs to start fucking the process into oblivion.

I am very pessimistic about this ending well. The consistent "He can't do X" statements never turn out because most of it isn't codified and what is codified has to be enforced, and there's no entities willing to enforce what is codified to prevent the President from establishing himself as a pseudo-dictator.

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UnholyMudcrab
10/28/20 6:22:31 PM
#16:


I just don't see Biden losing NV. Everything else is feasible, though I'd probably give him AZ and NC too, and give IA to Trump.

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Blue_Inigo
10/28/20 6:23:16 PM
#17:


I want to believe in a blue Texas

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Zero_Destroyer
10/28/20 6:23:23 PM
#18:


Doom_Art posted...
Lolwat

I mean the other ones you've mentioned have had the Democrat ahead consistently since the early Summer either by mid/high single digits (NC/ME) or high single/double digits (AZ)

If we're talking GA or SC then I'd agree that they're unlikely to flip given how close the margins are

Cunningham has been rocked by an extramarital affair and the polling eventually turned competitive, ME's polling has been consistently thin in favor of Gideon, and Kelly's big polling lead has started to erode somewhat. A lot of the best senate polling numbers for Dems were in Sep/early October and the margins have since thinned. Because of how limited split ticketing is becoming outside of Gov elections, I think Kelly/Cunningam both winning seems dependent on Biden running away with both states, which I just don't see happening at this point.

would gladly be proven wrong but none of FL's polling data seems to have meant squat since Dem's VBM lead is being rapidly erased, meaning Rs are overperforming in at least one location.

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Compsognathus
10/28/20 6:26:27 PM
#19:


PatrickMahomes posted...
Minnesota will turn red. Screenshot this post.


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Doom_Art
10/28/20 6:27:06 PM
#20:


Zero_Destroyer posted...
Cunningham has been rocked by an extramarital affair and the polling eventually turned competitive, ME's polling has been consistently thin in favor of Gideon, and Kelly's big polling lead has started to erode somewhat.
I'm looking at recent polls rn having those candidates leading by roughly the numbers I mentioned.

To clarify, polls released in the last few days.

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Doom_Art
10/28/20 6:33:06 PM
#21:


I'm all for skepticism but there's a line between that and doomerism

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HydraSlayer82
10/28/20 6:36:20 PM
#22:


PA is going blue.

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Politics
10/28/20 6:47:30 PM
#23:


I live in Arizona, we are probably going blue this election and legalizing weed. We're about to become the next California

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Politics
10/28/20 6:48:27 PM
#24:


Zero_Destroyer posted...
also i really don't think Dems take the senate lol the margins are too thin in AZ/NC/ME for every outcome to be dem favored especially when a lot of polls show MI as close and AL is long gone. Only sure seat gain Dems have is CO

Doug Jones is leading by a point in Alabama

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BunkerBoy
10/28/20 6:49:11 PM
#25:


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FursonaNonGrata
10/28/20 6:52:13 PM
#26:


I like it TC. Im still hopeful that Biden could win FL and NV. Ive been on a fairly optimistic streak about this for the last couple weeks but it could all come crashing down at literally any moment.

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CruelBuffalo
10/28/20 6:53:07 PM
#27:


Biden will win Arizona. Rest I agree with. Oh i didnt even see your Nevada prediction. Biden will win Nevada and Arizona.
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Doom_Art
10/28/20 6:56:48 PM
#28:


BunkerBoy posted...
Florida looking very good for Biden

https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321578785796431872

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321579879268311040
Been seeing similar talk from counties in Texas and district level polling throughout the rust belt.

Like seriously

I don't wanna slip back into 2016 Doom_Art running his fucking mouth about how Trump is gonna get blown up in a landslide

But something's happening here.

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hockeybub89
10/28/20 6:59:48 PM
#29:


mach25687 posted...
What the fuck are wrong with the Hispanic voters?
They lean religious, so many of them will vote Republican regardless of who it is.

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crazygamer21
10/28/20 7:02:24 PM
#30:


I just hope that Trump's supreme court hasn't completely fucked the election in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with those two recent rulings, and of course if the election itself goes to the supreme court it's pretty obvious we're gonna get another bush v gore repeat

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theiwantsong
10/28/20 7:05:22 PM
#31:


Nevada red = wrong.
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UnholyMudcrab
10/28/20 7:11:42 PM
#32:


Politics posted...
Doug Jones is leading by a point in Alabama
In one poll that is a massive outlier to all the other results. Everything else has Tuberville up by 12-15 points.

Also, every time I read Tuberville's name it makes me think of Tess of the d'Urbervilles, and I don't know what to think about that.

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Ruvan22
10/28/20 7:27:37 PM
#33:


UnholyMudcrab posted...
Tess of the d'Urbervilles
Maybe you are secretly attracted to Thomas Hardy?
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Mecha Sonic
10/28/20 7:32:51 PM
#36:


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littlebro07
10/28/20 7:34:20 PM
#37:


I'm pretty sure Biden will win

But I'm also terrified that he won't

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InhumaneRaider
10/28/20 7:35:54 PM
#38:


Mecha Sonic posted...
This seems more plausible, especially because Georgia will definitely flip blue this election. Warnock and Ossoff are leading their respective races and we've had a record breaking number of early voters from the democratic registrants.

In the end, Pennsylvania and Florida will definitely decide this race.

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VonOrdelia
10/28/20 7:36:29 PM
#39:


Why does Indiana get 11 votes?

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monkmith
10/28/20 7:36:44 PM
#40:


littlebro07 posted...
I'm pretty sure Biden will win

But I'm also terrified that he won't
my big fear is he isn't ahead by the end of election day. if trump is, he's going to kick up the biggest shit storm he can to stop the counting of early votes; because he knows that they'll turn the tide against him.

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Mecha Sonic
10/28/20 7:36:51 PM
#41:


InhumaneRaider posted...
This seems more plausible, especially because Georgia will definitely flip blue this election. Warnock and Ossoff are leading their respective races and we've had a record breaking number of early voters from the democratic registrants.

north carolina will probably flip blue too

ohio and iowa may stay red

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UnholyMudcrab
10/28/20 7:37:52 PM
#42:


The more I think about it, the more it boggles my mind that Indiana went for Obama in 2008. How in the everloving fuck did that even happen?

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Mecha Sonic
10/28/20 7:40:00 PM
#43:


UnholyMudcrab posted...
The more I think about it, the more it boggles my mind that Indiana went for Obama in 2008. How in the everloving fuck did that even happen?

by a margin of 1.03%

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Politics
10/28/20 7:40:40 PM
#44:


UnholyMudcrab posted...
The more I think about it, the more it boggles my mind that Indiana went for Obama in 2008. How in the everloving fuck did that even happen?

I lived there at the time, it was a combo of a lot of Republicans basically not voting and a lot of people REALLY excited to vote for Obama

It will never happen again.

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VonOrdelia
10/28/20 7:42:02 PM
#45:


Politics posted...
I lived there at the time, it was a combo of a lot of Republicans basically not voting and a lot of people REALLY excited to vote for Obama

It will never happen again.
Maybe not but my brother and I still voted Biden

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Mecha Sonic
10/28/20 7:42:03 PM
#46:


Doom_Art posted...
I don't wanna slip back into 2016 Doom_Art running his fucking mouth about how Trump is gonna get blown up in a landslide

four years ago i had a queasy feeling in my gut the entire week leading up to the election, and when the last minute michigan polls dropped showing trump in striking distance i was begging people not to be overconfident

i don't have the same dread this time, i think biden's got this

unfortunately with a 6-3 republican supreme court and republican structural advantages in the senate and the electoral college it's not like it really matters, this country is hosed no matter what

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ScazarMeltex
10/28/20 7:42:37 PM
#47:


Zero_Destroyer posted...
also i really don't think Dems take the senate lol the margins are too thin in AZ/NC/ME for every outcome to be dem favored especially when a lot of polls show MI as close and AL is long gone. Only sure seat gain Dems have is CO
I'll counter with this. Voter turnout is exceptionally high already and when voter turnout is high, dems do better. Thay being said, you could be right.

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CruelBuffalo
10/28/20 7:43:47 PM
#48:


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Balrog0
10/28/20 7:45:27 PM
#49:


I was skeptical of democrat chances to take Senate but the recent numbers are promising. It's definitely possible, before I thought it wasn't

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Smashingpmkns
10/28/20 7:54:40 PM
#50:


I have a hard time believing Trump will take NV. Not just because I live here and hope he doesn't lol
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coolboy11
10/28/20 7:56:32 PM
#51:


UnholyMudcrab posted...
The more I think about it, the more it boggles my mind that Indiana went for Obama in 2008. How in the everloving fuck did that even happen?
lol Obama almost got Missouri too to top it off (I think in the 2000's they were more of a swing state IIRC)

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UnholyMudcrab
10/28/20 7:57:28 PM
#52:


coolboy11 posted...
lol Obama almost got Missouri too to top it off (I think in the 2000's they were more of a swing state IIRC)
It's been really disappointing watching Missouri become more and more of a Republican strongpoint as the elections go by.

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