Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 326: Quarantine Vogue

(+) Yeah! (+)

LordoftheMorons posted...

Actually this is kinda why I think the framing of "we have X years to avoid 2 degrees C heating, and we're looking pretty fucked" is kinda bad. Being fucked isn't a binary thing; 2 degrees heating is very bad, but 2.5 or 3 degrees would be way worse, and even if we were pretty much doomed on any particular target it would still be worth getting the number as low as possible beyond that.

Disagree. People need a specific target to get them riled up. Talking about the variance in effects of 2 degrees versus 3 degrees will mean nothing to them, neither will a nebulous 'we gotta fix this'. Give them a doomsday clock. It won't work but the chances are slightly higher!

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In a meta sense I am not worried about climate change because humans will find a way to fix it through tech breakthrough i think. I may be gone at that point but since we suck I just have to hope for the best

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GuessMyUserName posted...

pretty sure I've seen Republicans use this to say it's too late so why change now

:|

Republicans cater to Evangelicals who think the rapture is going to happen soon and they're going to be taken away from Earth.

"So why bother doing good things for the planet?"

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metroid composite posted...

Also, if there's a nuclear war that kills a lot of humans, that would also do a pretty good job stopping climate change.

i mean

you have heard the term "nuclear winter" I'm sure

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Florida's voter registration website went down today (on the last day to register to vote) and just came back up

https://twitter.com/KristenClarkeJD/status/1313323513248391168

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"went down"

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I mean, it's certainly plausible it faced traffic issues from last minute people trying to access it... ...but you literally can't give the GOP the benefit of the doubt because they literally sabotage shit like this all the time. IIRC, they took down the healthcare exchanges down for maintenance during a good chunk of the enrollment period to try and deflate the numbers.

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Biden basically saying if Roe v Wade gets overturned he's going to be pushing to make it an amendment.

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FFDragon posted...

i mean

you have heard the term "nuclear winter" I'm sure

Yes.

Nuclear Winter would cool down the planet!

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Republicans want to go back in time. Democrats want to go forward. Cooler temperatures lie in the past, and warmer temperatures lie in the future. It is obvious which party is the one that wants global warming!

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Isn't Trump going to jail if he doesn't win the election? Can't imagine he'd care to live if that's the case.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Isn't Trump going to jail if he doesn't win the election? Can't imagine he'd care to live if that's the case.

Lol of course he isn't going to jail

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https://mobile.twitter.com/Harry1T6/status/1313217568258371587

I don't see what the problem with this is.

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There is nothing wrong with it which is what I think the point he is trying to make is

people would flip shit if trump said it

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iiaattgg posted...

There is nothing wrong with it which is what I think the point he is trying to make is

people would flip shit if trump said it

No. It's making rounds as another Biden gaffe that is racist.

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Is joe Biden a racist? I havent heard anything about that but I also dont pay much attention to this stuff

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He's said a couple dumb things, so it seems a safe guess

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Biden's not a racist (unless you're going by the definition where basically everybody is a racist and it ceases to be an at all useful term).

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"poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids"

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

"poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids"

He very obviously misspoke there

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Corrik7 posted...

https://mobile.twitter.com/Harry1T6/status/1313217568258371587

I don't see what the problem with this is.

It's taken extremely out of context, which I know you're a champion for and you'll diligently search for said context. Right?

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https://twitter.com/AllisonLHedges/status/1313419495373975555

Wow

Again likely to be an outlier, but that's two polls in two days with Biden up in the mid-teens (+16 and +14).

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But how many of those responses are from rigged ballots?!

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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1313451250273464320

Just the worst fucking person

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And they're not just refusing to contact trace the Rose Garden themselves, now; they're also rejecting the CDC's offer to help:

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1313449620845060096

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1313451250273464320

Just the worst fucking person

lol i like how when trump made an "it's just the flu" tweet back in march, he said the flu deaths per year "average between 27000 and 70000." now it's "over 100000"? interesting how the flu stats magically change when there's more covid deaths.

(also, the amount of covid deaths in the US is about 210000 now and the year isn't over. if the flu causes about 100000 deaths in its worst year, covid still seems a lot more serious to me!)

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

(also, the amount of covid deaths in the US is about 210000 now and the year isn't over. if the flu causes about 100000 deaths in its worst year, covid still seems a lot more serious to me!)

Another very important point here is those numbers are not actually comparable. The covid number (which is already considerably larger) is with all of the massive societal sacrifice we've all had to undertake (distancing, masks, lockdowns, etc), whereas for the flu nobody does anything except maybe get a shot (and like half of people don't even do that). If we had done nothing for covid, we very conceivably might have had several million deaths. Similarly, if we did all possibly anti-flu measures like we tried to do for covid flu deaths would be cut down significantly (and in fact social distancing and masks should help prevent the spread of the flu as well, so I'd bet we'll have considerably fewer flu deaths this winter than usual).

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Peace___Frog posted...

It's taken extremely out of context, which I know you're a champion for and you'll diligently search for said context. Right?

I saw the context. I said I don't see the problem with it.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

(also, the amount of covid deaths in the US is about 210000 now and the year isn't over. if the flu causes about 100000 deaths in its worst year, covid still seems a lot more serious to me!)

Don't forget that we shut most of the country down (doing the bare minimum) to keep the number lower. Imagine if we never shut down at all and we didn't have at least some intelligent governors out there who kind of knew what they were doing.

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It's like 100k+ flu deaths a year with a vaccine that limits it and about decades worth of treatment advances.

The first year the flu hit is what you should honestly compare the Covid to. Where no one has immunity and it all hit at once.

You are comparing year 1 of something to like year 100 of something else.

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Correct, once we have a vaccine for Covid and substantially better immunity in the population the death rate will fall dramatically. We have already made huge progress in treatment to keep people alive once they've caught it. The death rate is like 25% of what it was in the Spring already. The flu had a initial run of 50 million deaths globally.

The flu is not even a single disease. Its a dumb comparison.
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Corrik7 posted...

It's like 100k+ flu deaths a year with a vaccine that limits it and about decades worth of treatment advances.

The first year the flu hit is what you should honestly compare the Covid to. Where no one has immunity and it all hit at once.

You are comparing year 1 of something to like year 100 of something else.

Its not over 100k a year. Its typically like 20-70k. And if it was a new pandemic flu strain (like in 1919) we would have to be doing the same shit were doing for covid!

The point is that the flu comparisons are stupid as fuck because theyre typically used to argue that we should have done basically nothing, but doing so would have resulted in millions of deaths rather than anything comparable to any recent flu.

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Jakyl25 posted...

The flu is not even a single disease. Its a dumb comparison.

In 100 years, Covid won't be either. I mean it already isn't, SARS was round 1.

Jakyl25 posted...

The flu is not even a single disease. Its a dumb comparison.

Neither is the coronavirus.

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Lmfao so american it hurts.

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HeroicCrono posted...

The death rate is like 25% of what it was in the Spring already.

No its not. A ton of that is that the recorded death rate in the spring was way higher than the real death rate because we werent testing nearly as much so the denominator was smaller. Another factor is that the people who got covid in the second wave were on average younger (and thus less likely to die). We have gotten better at treating covid, but certainly not by a factor of 4.

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Corrik7 posted...

Neither is the coronavirus.

COVID-19 is more than one disease?
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HeroicCrono posted...

In 100 years, Covid won't be either. I mean it already isn't, SARS was round 1.

Once we get vaccines for it, then hell be right!
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Jakyl25 posted...

COVID-19 is more than one disease?

It's more than one strain.

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Corrik7 posted...

It's like 100k+ flu deaths a year with a vaccine that limits it and about decades worth of treatment advances.

No it's really not.

2010 - 2011: 37,000 deaths
2011 - 2012:12,000 deaths
2012 - 2013: 43,000 deaths
2013 - 2014: 38,000 deaths
2014 - 2015: 51,000 deaths
2015 - 2016: 23,000 deaths
2016 - 2017: 38,000 deaths
2017 - 2018: 61,000 deaths
2018 - 2019: 34,157 deaths

Even if we're generously rounding up, you don't really come close to 100k/year. The average over that period looks to be rounded up to 40,000. Not even half of 100,000.

As far as vaccines go, less than half the population gets the vaccine. The percent of adults who got their flu shot for the 2017-2018 season was 45.3%.

It's also important to note that 200,000 more people could die this year from Covid19. That's the estimates, which would put Covid at 400k/year.

Furthermore, we don't count Flu Deaths the same way we count Covid19 deaths. For Flu deaths, the CDC errs on the side of caution. Their estimates try to account for unreported cases. Something Covid19 does not.

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Corrik7 posted...

Neither is the coronavirus.

Strange hill to die on, but I guess there arent many left.
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Corrik, a few things.

The flu shot isn't really all that foolproof as it is. The reason it's deaths vary year to year so greatly is because we're basically forecasting what strains are going to be big that year. When the deaths climb, it's essentially done much less that year.

There is very much no evidence there are different Covid-19 strains. I've heard there's been some hypotheses that it's evolving to transmit through air more easily or something, but A) I don't know how much merit there are to those claims and B) even if true that doesn't mean it's a unique strain that requires a different vaccine.

What you might be thinking is the pants-on-head argument people (certain Fox News hosts notably) made very early on when we were referring to it more as "coronavirus" than "Covid-19 that there are many things that are "coronaviruses" because that's basically just describing a virus shape (which is technically true), so therefore that means it was nothing to worry about (which is very much not true or even a logical conclusion to draw in any way).

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Runemistress posted...

No it's really not.

2010 - 2011: 37,000 deaths
2011 - 2012:12,000 deaths
2012 - 2013: 43,000 deaths
2013 - 2014: 38,000 deaths
2014 - 2015: 51,000 deaths
2015 - 2016: 23,000 deaths
2016 - 2017: 38,000 deaths
2017 - 2018: 61,000 deaths
2018 - 2019: 34,157 deaths

Even if we're generously rounding up, you don't really come close to 100k/year. The average over that period looks to be rounded up to 40,000. Not even half of 100,000.

As far as vaccines go, less than half the population gets the vaccine. The percent of adults who got their flu shot for the 2017-2018 season was 45.3%.

It's also important to note that 200,000 more people could die this year from Covid19. That's the estimates, which would put Covid at 400k/year.

Furthermore, we don't count Flu Deaths the same way we count Covid19 deaths. For Flu deaths, the CDC errs on the side of caution. Their estimates try to account for unreported cases. Something Covid19 does not.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Yeah I think I was thinking of the worldwide death numbers or something.

Either way, again, you have to compare to initial onset without immunity, vaccine, and therapeutics to the coronavirus. That is common sense. Then when you get that far you can then begin the this is a 100 year advanced society vs that.

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kevwaffles posted...

Corrik, a few things.

The flu shot isn't really all that foolproof as it is. The reason it's deaths vary year to year so greatly is because we're basically forecasting what strains are going to be big that year. When the deaths climb, it's essentially done much less that year.

There is very much no evidence there are different Covid-19 strains. I've heard there's been some hypotheses that it's evolving to transmit through air more easily or something, but A) I don't know how much merit there are to those claims and B) even if true that doesn't mean it's a unique strain that requires a different vaccine.

What you might be thinking is the pants-on-head argument people (certain Fox News hosts notably) made very early on when we were referring to it more as "coronavirus" than "Covid-19 that there are many things that are "coronaviruses" because that's basically just describing a virus shape (which is technically true), so therefore that means it was nothing to worry about (which is very much not true or even a logical conclusion to draw in any way).

Negative. I am referring to the studies that said 3 strains hit people. The one that hit the USA was deadlier. The Chinese one was less deadlier. And, that they were unsure if people who got a strain were immune to other strains because one of the supposed double positives was infected by two different strains (and some supposedly could be infected by more than 1 strain at the same time).

That said, again, I am not arguing anything is deadlier than the other. I am saying you have to compare similar scenarios to one another to make a comparison.


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I mean year 1 flu was probably also a pandemic requiring extreme measures similar to COVID so I dont see why that would be an argument against taking COVID so seriously.

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Maniac64 posted...

I mean year 1 flu was probably also a pandemic requiring extreme measures similar to COVID so I dont see why that would be an argument against taking COVID so seriously.

Nobody said it was an argument against taking it seriously. Take a breath and read what you are actually responding to.

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Corrik7 posted...

Nobody said it was an argument against taking it seriously. Take a breath and read what you are actually responding to.

Trump is making that argument.

That's what the original tweet was. Him saying we dont change our lives in anyway for the flu so why should we for COVID.

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Maniac64 posted...

I mean year 1 flu was probably also a pandemic requiring extreme measures similar to COVID so I dont see why that would be an argument against taking COVID so seriously.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

We've been through flu pandemics, and we have taken them seriously!

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Maniac64 posted...

Trump is making that argument.

That's what the original tweet was. Him saying we dont change our lives in anyway for the flu so why should we for COVID.

You are responding to me. He didn't say we shouldn't take it serious. He said it is something that we probably are going to have to live with and get used to. Everyone from the onset has said it won't be eradicated and likely here forever and will be something a part of life like the flu forever. You can't just stop life due to it.

I would like to think people take the flu serious for the most part despite living their lives.

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