Current Events > CNN's new poll shows Biden's lead over Trump narrowing.

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Houston
08/17/20 9:01:40 PM
#1:


If you're one to believe in polling accuracy, here's some new info today straight from CNN:

"Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump among registered voters has significantly narrowed since June, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, even as the former vice president maintains an advantage over the President on several top issues and his choice of California Sen. Kamala Harris as a running mate earns largely positive reviews.

Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden's advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%. It is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall."

"Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-august/index.html

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DarthAragorn
08/17/20 9:02:03 PM
#2:


This country fucking sucks
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Smashingpmkns
08/17/20 9:02:52 PM
#3:


DarthAragorn posted...
This country fucking sucks

True that player
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iPhone_7
08/17/20 9:07:32 PM
#4:


Joe Biden is clearly going to win. Its so obvious. I dont even feel like voting, my candidate is going to win, I can just sit back at home & rest easy on Election Day. Trump is going to be so embarrassed lolololo

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RebelElite791
08/17/20 9:08:05 PM
#5:


DarthAragorn posted...
This country fucking sucks


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Intro2Logic
08/17/20 9:09:26 PM
#6:


I think the poll advocates have generally been of the belief that it's the totality of polling, not any one singular poll, that's useful for predictions. When averaged out with other polls, Biden has an 8 point lead

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1295333035345412101

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hockeybub89
08/17/20 9:09:40 PM
#7:


Nothing is more 2020 America than this shitshow of an election

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Ooooooranges
08/17/20 9:10:14 PM
#8:


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Hexenherz
08/17/20 9:10:45 PM
#9:


DarthAragorn posted...
This country fucking sucks
got into a brief argument with a guy who suggested that *every other president* was equally as terrible as trump

this is who I'm voting against

fml

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au_gold
08/17/20 9:10:46 PM
#10:


CNN is fake news.

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COVxy
08/17/20 9:12:06 PM
#11:


Idk why people make such a big deal out of small moment to moment fluctuations in polling that fall within the margin of error.

Well, I kind of do: someone gets to write another story that's gonna earn a lot more money than "things are still roughly the same!"

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LastTomorrow
08/17/20 9:21:03 PM
#12:


Why make such a big deal about polls. Who cares. This is the same logic that lead people to not vote at all. I'm going straight to the polls, flip a coin and vote

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NightMarishPie
08/17/20 9:23:28 PM
#13:


wtf we love polls now

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ExtremeLuchador
08/17/20 9:23:51 PM
#14:


I know a ton of Trump voters who hate him but are only voting because their take home pay is bigger.

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Damn_Underscore
08/17/20 9:24:18 PM
#15:


au_gold posted...
CNN is fake news.

this

fox news: Biden +7
cnn: Biden +4



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Houston
08/17/20 9:25:51 PM
#16:


NightMarishPie posted...
wtf we love polls now

The first sentence in my OP was "If you're one to believe in polling accuracy,"

This is purely for entertainment purposes for me.

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The_Office_pwnz
08/18/20 7:00:27 PM
#17:


"right at the poll's margin of error"

so....they're tied

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pistachio12
08/18/20 7:28:29 PM
#19:


Houston posted...
The first sentence in my OP was "If you're one to believe in polling accuracy,"

This is purely for entertainment purposes for me.

Ah so you can cherry pick one poll to troll and then hide behind any invented narrative you want when results roll in later.
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RetsuZaiZen
08/18/20 7:29:11 PM
#20:


People still believe these polls after 2016?

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Kazi1212
08/18/20 7:33:02 PM
#21:


2016 all over again, only the liberal tears will be even sweeter this time around

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Endgame
08/18/20 7:34:56 PM
#22:


iPhone_7 posted...
Joe Biden is clearly going to win. Its so obvious. I dont even feel like voting, my candidate is going to win, I can just sit back at home & rest easy on Election Day. Trump is going to be so embarrassed lolololo

Yep.

It's 2016 all over again.

But with a way weaker candidate than Hillary.

Bernie was the correct answer both times.

RetsuZaiZen posted...
People still believe these polls after 2016?

Sad, isn't it?
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The_Office_pwnz
08/18/20 8:36:34 PM
#23:


RetsuZaiZen posted...
People still believe these polls after 2016?
srsly like wtf people


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COVxy
08/18/20 8:41:18 PM
#24:


The_Office_pwnz posted...
srsly like wtf people

Polls were accurate in 2016. You just can't wrap your head around uncertainty.

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The_Office_pwnz
08/18/20 8:49:32 PM
#25:


actually, the reason trump lost all polls in 2016 is because they poll previous voters. Trump rallied the forgotten racists in society, who have never voted before. The ones that were just "uncomfortable" when Obama was president. For no particular reason...theres just something about him. And it scared them and united non voters.

We see him now totally on the BLDM bus and he's rallying them again.

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JBaLLEN66
08/18/20 8:57:41 PM
#26:


I still dont get this topic?

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Houston
08/18/20 9:01:31 PM
#27:


pistachio12 posted...
Ah so you can cherry pick one poll to troll and then hide behind any invented narrative you want when results roll in later.

No, I'm just posting a news story from CNN for anyone who wants to take it seriously or wants to take it with a grain of salt. I'm sorry it has seemed to upset you.

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ssjevot
08/18/20 9:03:40 PM
#28:


Houston posted...
"Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%."

This information needs to be emphasized more. Somehow most Americans still don't understand how the electoral college works and that just a few thousand people actually chose the president. A lot of people are wasting time, resources, and effort on areas that don't matter.

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Anime
08/18/20 9:05:04 PM
#29:


reminder that the only poll that matters is in November

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Houston
08/18/20 9:06:24 PM
#30:


ssjevot posted...
This information needs to be emphasized more. Somehow most Americans still don't understand how the electoral college works and that just a few thousand people actually chose the president. A lot of people are wasting time, resources, and effort on areas that don't matter.

"Battleground" states tend to change. And some are more battleground than others. For example, I don't think Pennsylvania and Michigan were considered battleground states in 2016. They probably are now.

It's smart for campaigns to be relentless.

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KiwiTerraRizing
08/18/20 9:08:08 PM
#31:


This was always going to happen

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JBaLLEN66
08/18/20 9:08:46 PM
#32:


Houston posted...
"Battleground" states tend to change. And some are more battleground than others. For example, I don't think Pennsylvania and Michigan were considered battleground states in 2016. They probably are now.

It's smart for campaigns to be relentless.

theyve been battleground states, thanks for admitting you know absolutely nothing lol

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Zero_Destroyer
08/18/20 9:12:58 PM
#33:


Houston posted...
"Battleground" states tend to change. And some are more battleground than others. For example, I don't think Pennsylvania and Michigan were considered battleground states in 2016. They probably are now.

It's smart for campaigns to be relentless.

they were considered a key strategy for the Trump campaign and analysis prior to 2016's election concluded that Trump's best shot was a significant polling error in the upper midwest

PA has literally been a battleground state for decades

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On_The_Edge
08/18/20 9:15:33 PM
#34:


If CNN's polls are showing this you know Trump is miles ahead in reality

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Intro2Logic
08/18/20 9:15:51 PM
#35:


ssjevot posted...
A lot of people are wasting time, resources, and effort on areas that don't matter.
Are they actually, though? Who's wasting any time thinking about NY or Montana?

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Dark_SilverX
08/18/20 9:16:58 PM
#36:


Sleepy Joe is too busy sleepin. Those long leg hairs are wrappin around his eye lids keepin em shut tight.

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ssjevot
08/18/20 9:18:52 PM
#37:


Houston posted...
"Battleground" states tend to change. And some are more battleground than others. For example, I don't think Pennsylvania and Michigan were considered battleground states in 2016. They probably are now.

It's smart for campaigns to be relentless.

They really don't though. If you mean over the long-term some states can become a battleground and other can become a blue or red state, than yes. If you mean California or Texas could be a battleground this year, they can't be. If Trump had a chance in California he would already have a landslide win. Similar if Biden has a chance in Texas he is heading for a landslide win. Battlegrounds are battlegrounds because their distribution of demographics is such that either party could win in a close race. Landslides like Reagan 1988 don't mean every state was a battleground that year.

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Houston
08/18/20 9:19:13 PM
#38:


JBaLLEN66 posted...
theyve been battleground states, thanks for admitting you know absolutely nothing lol

I don't know about that. 79% and 77% chance of Hillary winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, respectively, doesn't sound too much like a battleground state. I certainly never remember the media talking about how Trump could very well take them both! But, maybe you have a different perspective.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

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ssjevot
08/18/20 9:19:23 PM
#39:


Intro2Logic posted...
Are they actually, though? Who's wasting any time thinking about NY or Montana?

TC just suggested any state could be a battleground, so...

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ssjevot
08/18/20 9:21:36 PM
#40:


Houston posted...
I don't know about that. 79% and 77% chance of Hillary winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, respectively, doesn't sound too much like a battleground state. I certainly never remember the media talking about how Trump could very well take them both! But, maybe you have a different perspective.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Your own link shows both states have scenarios where Trump wins in that model. That makes them battlegrounds.

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JBaLLEN66
08/18/20 9:22:01 PM
#41:


Houston posted...
I don't know about that. 79% and 77% of Hillary winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, respectively, doesn't sound too much like a battleground state. I certainly never remember the media talking about how Trump could very well take them both! But, maybe you have a different perspective.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Trump is ahead 6.5 % points in South Carolina- a likely Trump state and Biden is ahead 6.5 % points in Pennsylvania- a so called swing state. I mean if you want to cherry pick polls I can play that game too. Also, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were all close states during the Bush elections, Obama just did relatively well there.

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Unknown361
08/18/20 9:22:28 PM
#42:


Bunker boy is going to kill more Americans and the right will cheer for it as they too will die under Trump but that's the sacrifice they're willing to make if it hurts the other side they hate so much because the left love and care America and the troops more than than the right does.

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Houston
08/18/20 9:23:25 PM
#43:


ssjevot posted...
They really don't though. If you mean over the long-term some states can become a battleground and other can become a blue or red state, than yes. If you mean California or Texas could be a battleground this year, they can't be. If Trump had a chance in California he would already have a landslide win. Similar if Biden has a chance in Texas he is heading for a landslide win. Battlegrounds are battlegrounds because their distribution of demographics is such that either party could win in a close race. Landslides like Reagan 1988 don't mean every state was a battleground that year.

That is a good point. I guess what I was trying to convey is what you said, except in some cases, they can become a battleground on a shorter term, like Michigan and Pennsylvania did. Things change every four years, but I overall agree with what you mean. Trump probably should not be focusing on NY and Biden focusing on Mississippi (but I don't think they are).

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Houston
08/18/20 9:25:51 PM
#44:


JBaLLEN66 posted...
Trump is ahead 6.5 % points in South Carolina- a likely Trump state and Biden is ahead 6.5 % points in Pennsylvania- a so called swing state. I mean if you want to cherry pick polls I can play that game too. Also, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were all close states during the Bush elections, Obama just did relatively well there.

All I was trying to convey is that battleground states can change. You asserted that Michigan and Pennsylvania were considered battleground states in 2016. I don't think they were. Most people did not think Trump would win those by any regard (except maybe the Trump campaign) and the percentages I showed you reflect that. That's why Hillary did not spend much time in Michigan.

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ssjevot
08/18/20 9:27:16 PM
#45:


Houston posted...
All I was trying to convey is that battleground states can change. You asserted that Michigan and Pennsylvania were considered battleground states in 2016. I don't think they were. Most people did not think Trump would win those by any regard (except maybe the Trump campaign) and the percentages I showed you reflect that. That's why Hillary did not spend much time in Michigan.

Your own link says they were. Did you scroll down to the part where it talks about likelihood of a state to decide the election?

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Intro2Logic
08/18/20 9:30:16 PM
#46:


Houston posted...
You asserted that Michigan and Pennsylvania were considered battleground states in 2016. I don't think they were.
Here's a story from June of that year listing them among the 11 states that will shape the election. https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-battleground-states-224025
And specifically as battleground states in this article
https://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/06/clinton-trump-swing-state-poll-224923


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Houston
08/18/20 9:39:17 PM
#47:


ssjevot posted...
Your own link says they were. Did you scroll down to the part where it talks about likelihood of a state to decide the election?

Okay, I can see how they could have been considered battleground states according to polling. I stand corrected.

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JBaLLEN66
08/18/20 9:39:42 PM
#48:


Houston posted...
Okay, I can see how they could have been considered battleground states according to polling. I stand corrected.

id just give up

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Houston
08/18/20 10:12:33 PM
#49:


JBaLLEN66 posted...
id just give up

Give up on what? I just posted an article. Yes, I guess Michigan and Pennsylvania were "swing states" but I doubt I am in the minority in thinking they were in 2016. Everyone was shocked

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