Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1333

(+) Yeah! (+)

FTL is just that weak!

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Well, I'd definitely take FTL over Baba at least

Which bodes not well for my GTAV > P4G pick!

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Made a fourpack about today's losers:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78532407#13

General consensus seems to be XCOM 2 >> Ghost Trick > FTL > Baba.

IF TRUE: that roughly estimates RDR > P4G > GTAV (perhaps narrowly) and it'd become a question of just how much further ahead XCOM 2 is than the other three of today's losers to see where Cuphead lands in that mix.

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If you make GTAV=Cuphead then XCOM 2 gets 66.31% against Baba Is You.

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I think it's all so close that the difference in the voter pool between today and Round 2 could shift results and affect who wins in the next round. We're also likely looking at a minimum of 3 fodder games in this set of matches (and XCOM 2 likely isn't much better than the other 3), and it's really tricky to say for sure which fodder is better when they are likely close to equal.

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Can B8 really be trusted to speak on GTA when they hate GTA and want to see it lose?

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You guys don't think Baba Is You could get to 18% on Mario RPG?

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Can B8 really be trusted on contests?

How many debatable matches has GTA come out successfully on the other side? And how strong were those opponents it beat or lost to?

We see through GTA's national fame on this site all the time, but gauging how far off it it from its sales has always been the game with it in these contests.

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HaRRicH posted...

Can B8 really be trusted on contests?

How many debatable matches has GTA come out successfully on the other side? And how strong were those opponents it beat or lost to?

We see through GTA's national fame on this site all the time, but gauging how far off it it from its sales has always been the game with it in these contests.

Well, if you want to make an argument against GTA based on B8, it's not the guru favorite to win the division!

GTAV was my gut pick to the divisional finals (though the Xenoblade/Three Houses winner definitely beats it), but that was more because everything else in this half division looked bad. I thought of picking RDR to win instead but I stuck with GTA because I figured that there was a world of difference between San Andreas losing to JRPGs and the stronger V jobbing to another Rockstar game.

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I was just countering if we could be trusted to discuss GTA, but yeah, it shouldn't be the favorite.

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It's absolutely a little bit of both. GTAV is obviously not incredibly strong, but we probably already knew that. Fire Emblem > GTA is the most popular pick, right?

I just meant that, in a meaningless poll like that, it's very easy to vote for the "eh, fuck GTA" option, which puts Baba in last.

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I definitely don't think "trusted on GTA" and "trusted on contests" is the same thing, as you put it.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

GTAV was my gut pick to the divisional finals (though the Xenoblade/Three Houses winner definitely beats it), but that was more because everything else in this half division looked bad. I thought of picking RDR to win instead but I stuck with GTA because I figured that there was a world of difference between San Andreas losing to JRPGs and the stronger V jobbing to another Rockstar game.

I've got RDR but now consider Persona 4 the slight favorite here. That was always the risk I associated with RDR (Persona 4 in the way), but it now looks like GTA has its own risk next round.

Xenoblade is gonna look soooo good emerging from this gauntlet!

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Still super skeptical of Xenoblade, especially after Awakening was relatively underwhelming the other day.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Still super skeptical of Xenoblade, especially after Awakening was relatively underwhelming the other day.

I think you mixed both franchises.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

GTAV was my gut pick to the divisional finals (though the Xenoblade/Three Houses winner definitely beats it), but that was more because everything else in this half division looked bad. I thought of picking RDR to win instead but I stuck with GTA because I figured that there was a world of difference between San Andreas losing to JRPGs and the stronger V jobbing to another Rockstar game.

Yeah, RDR > GTAV is as likely as Smash Ultimate > BotW, which is not likely at all. There's a hierarchy involved.

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I'm gonna put forth the theory that your remake status only hurts if the voter has played both games.

So against jobber fodder everyone just votes for P4 cause it's P4. Against your other favorite JRPG Xenoblade however you might opt for Xenoblade even if you'd vote for P4 normally because it's just a port!

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Advokaiser posted...

I think you mixed both franchises.

The point is that they were virtual equals in 2015.

And before anyone talks about how Xenoblade has reasons to be stronger since then, so does Fire Emblem.

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Advokaiser posted...

Yeah, RDR > GTAV is as likely as Smash Ultimate > BotW, which is not likely at all. There's a hierarchy involved.

We've had 20 years to establish a somewhat understood Nintendo pecking order. I don't think we've seen anything like that for Rockstar (or anything apart from Nintendo/Square). It's all conjecture until we actually see it, but again, both of them might fail to get there!

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I still don't get why Persona 4 Golden is in this contest at all. I guess Persona 5 Royal will make GotD3?

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pjbasis posted...

I'm gonna put forth the theory that your remake status only hurts if the voter has played both games.

So against jobber fodder everyone just votes for P4 cause it's P4. Against your other favorite JRPG Xenoblade however you might opt for Xenoblade even if you'd vote for P4 normally because it's just a port!

I know this is my mindset!
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I don't think we've seen anything like that for Rockstar (or anything apart from Nintendo/Square).

Heh, this was a fun day about Xbox pecking order here.....

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3805-mushroom-division-round-2-ryu-hayabusa-vs-master-chief

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HaRRicH posted...

Heh, this was a fun day about Xbox pecking order here.....

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3805-mushroom-division-round-2-ryu-hayabusa-vs-master-chief

You're bringing back traumatic memories of people literally arguing Master Chief would Xbox SFF Hayabusa

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Leonhart4 posted...

The point is that they were virtual equals in 2015.

And before anyone talks about how Xenoblade has reasons to be stronger since then, so does Fire Emblem.

Not the same reasons, though.

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Yeah, if anything, Fire Emblem has better reasons.
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HaRRicH posted...

Heh, this was a fun day about Xbox pecking order here.....

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3805-mushroom-division-round-2-ryu-hayabusa-vs-master-chief

NES Ninja Gaiden was most likely Ryu's clutch.

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LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, if anything, Fire Emblem has better reasons.

For the franchise? Absolutely.

For a specific game? Hmm-HMM...!

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the franchise being stronger helps the individual games be stronger too

not to mention the big reason for Fire Emblem being stronger is directly in Xenoblade's path to begin with
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Personally, I thought RE2 getting 83% on Danganronpa 2 (a game at least a few people care about) was a great result. Today is showing that games of medium strength still aren't guaranteed to put up 80% on bad fodder. That implies good things for Three Houses.

A lot of the Xenoblade hype for this contest comes across as wishful thinking more than anything else.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Personally, I thought RE2 getting 83% on Danganronpa 2 (a game at least a few people care about) was a great result. Today is showing that games of medium strength still aren't guaranteed to put up 80% on bad fodder. That implies good things for Three Houses.

A lot of the Xenoblade hype for this contest comes across as wishful thinking more than anything else.

I agree regarding Xenoblade, it and its characters have consistently disappointed in these contests. It's one of those weird games that seems like it should have GameFAQs street cred, but just... doesn't for one reason or another.

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Nah, it's one of those things where B8 loves it so much that they assume everyone else does, too. This phenomenon is not unique to Xenoblade...! It's the new Tales of Symphonia in this regard.
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Tales of Symphonia has some actual good showings though! Xenoblade doesn't. Not yet, anyway. This is coming from someone who would love to see it sweep this division.

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I got through about an hour of Xenoblade on the 3DS before putting it down forever. No desire to play any of those games.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Tales of Symphonia has some actual good showings though! Xenoblade doesn't. Not yet, anyway. This is coming from someone who would love to see it sweep this division.

Oh, Symphonia's peak is definitely higher than Xenoblade's, but I think they'll have the same issue actually breaking through against a known commodity. They'll look good but they never manage to actually win.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Personally, I thought RE2 getting 83% on Danganronpa 2 (a game at least a few people care about) was a great result. Today is showing that games of medium strength still aren't guaranteed to put up 80% on bad fodder. That implies good things for Three Houses.

Should we expect great things out of Horizon Zero Dawn or is Fortnite actually that bad.

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lordjers posted...

NES Ninja Gaiden was most likely Ryu's clutch.

On one hand, yes:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4076-north-division-round-1-halo-combat-evolved-vs-ninja-gaiden

On the other hand, no:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3448-division-1-round-1-duck-hunt-galaga-ninja-gaiden-smb-1

Somewhere in-between.

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I mean, on one hand, I'd pick Shulk > Byleth in a heartbeat, but having Shulk losing to what had arguably the most atrocious-looking pic in the entire contest can be a little misleading.

Also Three Houses is not exactly at the level of RE2. Close, but not equal in strength.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Oh, Symphonia's peak is definitely higher than Xenoblade's, but I think they'll have the same issue actually breaking through against a known commodity. They'll look good but they never manage to actually win.

Symphonia has a 2:3 win:loss record in contests, which is pretty good for a game that intentionally gets saddled with debatable matches. We don't talk about the characters.

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lordjers posted...

Should we expect great things out of Horizon Zero Dawn or is Fortnite actually that bad.

It's definitely beating Borderlands, and I think it might give ME2 a run for its money

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KamikazePotato posted...

We don't talk about the characters.

Well, Shulk's performances should be counted as part of Xenoblade's chokes too, imo.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Symphonia has a 2:3 win:loss record in contests, which is pretty good for a game that intentionally gets saddled with debatable matches. We don't talk about the characters.

Well, one of those wins was second place in a 4-way. Beating RE5 was impressive enough but not exactly a popular mainstream game.

lordjers posted...

Should we expect great things out of Horizon Zero Dawn or is Fortnite actually that bad.

Fortnite is that bad. Same thing with Dota 2.
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Advokaiser posted...

Also Three Houses is not exactly at the level of RE2. Close, but not equal in strength.

Speaking of which, what numbers would Three Houses put on Danganronpa 2 if we take the Final GotY vote for reference?

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Advokaiser posted...

Speaking of which, what numbers would Three Houses put on Danganronpa 2 if we take the Final GotY vote for reference?

81.83%
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LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, if anything, Fire Emblem has better reasons.

This is an interesting point of comparison as Fire Emblem and Xenoblade have had very similar rises. FEs rise was much more shocking though. Xenoblade had always seemed like a franchise that was right on the verge of hitting the mainstream, then it did after a gradual rise. FE was basically dead then smashed it in one go and has only been going up. How will this factor in? No idea! But after watching that Definitive Edition trailer I got hit with the feeling that Xenoblade was going to win.

Also every one of these probably beats DR2. Even Baba.

Also you should all play Baba is You.

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LeonhartFour posted...

81.83%

...oh.

There goes bracket, then.

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well if DR2 = these other games, then RE2 beats GTA with 59.41%, P4G with 61.99%, and RDR with 60.24%

that would also basically make it equal to SotC 2015 assuming RDR 2015 = RDR 2020
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Heres my current thinking for the current indie ranking sans (haha) Undertale because I am a coward:

Cuphead
Shovel Knight
Hollow Knight
Bloodstained
Bastion
VVVVVV
FTL
Baba is You
What Remains of Edith Finch
INSIDE

How does that look? Fair range of strength there.

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There comes bracket, then.

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