Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 1

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Nameless2000
03/30/20 6:28:38 PM
#303:


This makes me feel better about the time I signed up as Guest and blew Shovel Knight v Captain Toad.

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n2k
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transcience
03/30/20 6:31:03 PM
#304:


I looked at the Guru after I wrote my writeup for this one and was absolutely shocked at the results. I expected like a 70/30, maybe 80/20 split.

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iphonesience
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Leonhart4
03/30/20 6:31:20 PM
#305:


Nameless2000 posted...
This makes me feel better about the time I signed up as Guest and blew Shovel Knight v Captain Toad.

At least that was close enough to be considered debatable!

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SuperNiceDog
03/30/20 6:35:59 PM
#306:


spookys taking dota2? niceee

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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transience
03/30/20 6:36:32 PM
#307:


I'll say this - if Minecraft beats Dota 2 with 69% then okay yeah Dota 2 is just awful. but if Dota 2 beats Minecraft with 69%, it should wreck Spider-Man.

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xyzzy
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Leonhart4
03/30/20 6:38:49 PM
#308:


transience posted...
I'll say this - if Minecraft beats Dota 2 with 69% then okay yeah Dota 2 is just awful. but if Dota 2 beats Minecraft with 69%, it should wreck Spider-Man.

Yeah, I think I'd agree with that. We have a decent idea of where Minecraft stands. I don't think it'll be one of the weakest games in the contest.

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WibbleWobbleWok
03/30/20 7:53:00 PM
#309:


I feel like p4gs gonna sadly get fucked because its an enhanced port

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Not changing this part of my sig until Waluigi is in Smash- Started 8/17/18
Fav games: Xenoblade (1) > P4G>P5>DQ11>FETH
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transcience
03/30/20 7:57:22 PM
#310:


if people are antivoting remakes then I sure cant tell by looking at RE2s percentage

maybe we need a viable alternative for that to kick in, but it certainly isnt happen en masse

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iphonesience
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The Mana Sword
03/30/20 8:04:10 PM
#311:


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Kotetsu534
03/30/20 8:05:44 PM
#312:


Lol Dota2. MOBAs not welcome here (shame, they're a lot of fun!).

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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
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transcience
03/30/20 8:06:27 PM
#313:


two thoughts based on early results:

holy crap these board votes are out of control. I dont think I can draw a single conclusion based on a big bracket favorite in the first 2-3 minutes of a poll. saying this more for round 2 and beyond.

anyone claiming that Horizon is a huge favorite over Borderlands should probably take mental note of this Minecraft result. itll probably chill out after the board vote but yeah, yikes.

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iphonesience
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The_Ctes
03/30/20 8:20:33 PM
#314:


I almost made the call earlier that SND would probably throw away another point.

Poor Guest, oh well

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Wildspark
03/30/20 8:24:01 PM
#315:


This is the first day where I got everything right

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SuperNiceDog
03/30/20 10:33:49 PM
#316:


Dang Dead Space 2.... oh well

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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spooky96
03/30/20 10:50:36 PM
#317:


Oh god this is a disaster

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Congrats to Advokaiser, the Guru Champ!
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Leonhart4
03/30/20 11:24:49 PM
#318:


Somehow SND only has the second worst guest pick of the day...!

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transience
03/30/20 11:39:10 PM
#319:


SuperNiceDog posted...
Dang Dead Space 2.... oh well

spooky96 posted...
Oh god this is a disaster

the Guest experience, personified

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xyzzy
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BlAcK TuRtLe
03/31/20 12:03:47 AM
#320:


You can never put any stock in the Guest's overall performance in the contest, because of people like them. All you can do is take solace in the individual points you may have racked up

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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1
lol xstats
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Ngamer64
03/31/20 12:35:47 AM
#321:


ChaozCloud posted...
I have no idea where I should put this. But I don't like that I have to vote on all 4 battles. I have not played Deus Ex: Human Revolution nor Fire Emblem Awakening and would have prefered not to vote on that.
You're not alone, I don't think there's a person on this message board who has played at least one game in every matchup. Weeeeellll, maybe SHINE.

I do agree, forced voting for all four was a mistake in this format- even though I approved of it for the Character Battle.


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Advo bested even The Show hosts in 2018, yowza!
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AxemRedRanger
03/31/20 12:42:47 AM
#322:


If you removed forced voting, you couldnt really have multiple simultaneous polls per day. Would be too confusing for people who arent already familiar with the format.

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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO Advokaiser NO PEACE]
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LusterSoldier
03/31/20 12:50:57 AM
#323:


You could absolutely still have multiple polls per day even without forced voting. This was the case in the 2015 Games Contest and the Years contest, where you could choose which ones you want to vote in and weren't required to vote for all matches currently running each day.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!
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Ngamer64
03/31/20 12:52:15 AM
#324:


For the record, I'm in favor of Guests trying for every wacky upset under the sun. In fact it's maybe my favorite thing about these topics!


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Advo bested even The Show hosts in 2018, yowza!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
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MetalmindStats
03/31/20 1:00:15 AM
#325:


Ngamer64 posted...
For the record, I'm in favor of Guests trying for every wacky upset under the sun. In fact it's maybe my favorite thing about these topics!
My only problem with wacky Guest upsets is when the Guest in question doesn't even have the conviction to roll with it in something like Spread Betting or the Oracle Challenge. At that point, it comes off as less a genuine opinion and more a concerted attempt at torpedoing the Guest slot's prediction accuracy.

Luckily, that lack of conviction won't be a problem in this next match...!

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"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!
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Master Moltar
03/31/20 1:44:55 AM
#326:


Previous Results: Blowout City yesterday with 3 of the matches ending in 80%+ victories. One thing to remember is to try and not draw too much from fodder blowouts, as it's easy for someone to vote a game they like or at least have heard of over a game they haven't played/haven't heard of. Next round it'll mostly be cases were voters like both games, which is much harder to predict.

Crew Predictions: 15/16

Next Round Thoughts: Probably the most exciting set of R2 matches we've seen yet. Both RE2 and DOOM had strong results and you could make a case for either game. Bloodborne also looked really strong, while FE: Awakening only did about as expected. Is 'as expected' good enough to still be the favorite in that match though?

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 15
Kleenex: 15
transience: 14
Leonhart: 14
Guest: 13

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for RE2 and Bloodborne, Black Turtle gets the point for DOOM, and Leon gets the point for FE.

Kleenex: 4
Moltar: 3
Guest: 3 (spooky96, Hbthebattle, Black Turtle)
transience: 3
Leonhart: 2

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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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BlAcK TuRtLe
03/31/20 1:55:35 AM
#327:


Hell ya DOOM!

That half division is shaping up to be really interesting. Despite my bracket, I'll be rooting for Doom

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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1
lol xstats
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Master Moltar
03/31/20 2:00:00 AM
#328:


Round 1 Undertale vs. Octopath Traveler

Moltars Analysis

The REIGNING, DEFENDING, UNDISPUTED Games Contest champion, Undertale, my friends.

This is actually a layup match for the Champ. Octopath might have challenged 2015 Round 1 Undertale, but not now. Even though Undertale wont be as strong as the Internet-fueled beast it was by the end of the contest, its base strength should be decent now, despite the anti-voting that might arise.

Yeah Sans got crushed by Pac-Man in 2018, but at least everybody knows Pac-Man. Octopath is too unknown to be able to benefit from apathy.

Moltars Bracket: Undertale

Moltars Prediction: Undertale 62%

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transiences Analysis

After 2 days of boredom (aren't you kinda sorta glad we have fourways for times like this?), we get a day of potential fireworks. The highlight seems to be this match: the cursed Undertale and... Octopath Traveler? I kinda of treat this match as Undertale vs. Not Undertale.

Not Undertale is actually a fairly convincing argument: did you see that Sans/Pac-Man match? That was a bomb of historic proportions for a contest. It might have been my worst pick as an educated contest-follower who can recite contest results like they're sports statistics. I've made worse picks when I didn't know any better, but this was one of the worst ones I willingly made knowing full well how these things go.

On the other side we have Octopath Traveler, a game that I think I'd put below Bravely Default? It had some Switch buzz thanks to a nice meaty demo but the Switch GOTY poll that it did relatively well in (a clear second behind Ultimate, well ahead of Pokemon and Sonic Mania), was because of that demo + the complete lack of RPG options. RPG heads like myself will vote for Octopath just because we always vote for the JRPG option.

If you can't tell, I don't think much of Octopath at all. I took a look at the Guru and was shocked that so many people have it, though maybe it makes sense when you think about how many people here are polarized against Undertale due to its 2015 run, or look at that Sans performance and check right out. Undertale is a much bigger deal in every way than Octopath, not just for the indie/twee crowd but just across the internet in general. Undertale is vulnerable, but not vulnerable enough to go down to one of our weaker JRPGs. I'd pick Ni no Kuni over Octopath.

Now Shovel Knight, on the other hand...

transience's prediction: Undertale with 61.54%

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Leonharts Analysis

I am very curious to see how Undertale performs in this match. We saw Draven get anti-voted to oblivion against Amaterasu in the last Character Battle, and according to a couple of polls, a quarter of the site swore it would never play Undertale because it ruined the Games Contest. However, theres reason to believe Undertale can avoid the same fate. First, I think we got way angrier about Draven than we ever did about Undertale. Second, Undertales base strength is much higher than Dravens (who was losing badly to Chie Satonaka before the first rally kicked in), and its popularity has only grown over the last five years, Id wager.

Dont get me wrong. I do think Undertale will suffer some anti-voting, but I dont think Octopath Traveler is the game to take advantage of it to score a big upset. Yes, its a Switch RPG made by Square and it sold well enough, but Ive heard so many stories about people who liked it at first but got so burnt out by the repetitive nature of the game that they never even finished it. I think next round is the real test, but I do think Octopath can make Undertale look bad.

Leonharts Vote: Undertale

Leonharts Prediction: Undertale with 57.54%

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Kleenexs Analysis

Time to see what the reigning champ can do. Given how poorly Sans tanked against Pac-Man last year, I'm inclined to believe that Undertale will not actually be a world-beater this time. I think it'll probably be a middle of the road entrant, somewhere in the lower end of the middle tier of games - whatever that actually means these days. I certainly don't think it's in any danger of losing today, against an opponent I have very little faith in. I feel like I've seen some people talking up Octopath a little bit and I don't understand that at all. Octopath came an went in about a week, the response to it was medium at best, and I pretty much never hear anyone utter its name these days. If Undertale somehow drops this match, it's because it sucks, not because Octopath is good.

Kleenex's Prediction: Undertale with 67.25%

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Guests Analysis MetalmindStats

If anyone reading this remembers any of my posts pre-contest, youll likely know that Im banking on a major upset here, which would be the first seeding upset of the contest if it happens. That means the only question left is why Im so convinced Undertale will fall. The answer begins with the one direct comparison we have between the two games: their characters results last contest.

On one hand, Primrose, merely one member of Octopath Travelers ensemble party, avoided a tripling from Zero in 2018. On the other hand, Sans, Undertales breakout character, couldnt exceed 29% that same contest ...on Pac-Man. I just cant get over that juxtaposition - Smash and forced voting or no, I find it hard to believe Pac-Man has budged much from his long-held status as the ultimate apathy vote. Maybe someone will point to the internet exploding at Sans announcement as a mere Mii costume in Smash Ultimate last year, but Im not convinced that did much for anyone who didnt already have a positive opinion about Sans and Undertale in general.

Plus, contest trends favor Octopath here. Weve already seen antivote-susceptible games sag at every opportunity, with Fortnite, Black Ops, and now Dota 2 all collapsing relative to already low expectations, while Final Fantasy XV and Mass Effect 2 failed to impress. Weve already seen that indie games wont monolithically have a good contest - that it will instead depend on their playrates and voters opinions about the game in question. And weve already seen JRPGFAQs in full force, with Ni no Kuni and more importantly Bravely Default saving face in close losses against genuinely well-liked higher seeds. Octopath should have even more cachet than those two, both because it was the first major JRPG on the Switch and beca
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CaptainOfCrush
03/31/20 2:03:02 AM
#329:


spooky96 posted...
Oh god this is a disaster
Can't stop laughing at this

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KamikazePotato
03/31/20 2:09:31 AM
#330:


I don't feel comfortable in Undertale at all. It has every reason to beat Octopath but GameFAQs is not kind to rally targets that stick around.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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CaptainOfCrush
03/31/20 2:14:46 AM
#331:


Draven could have been a warning sign, but it seems like Undertale "came into its own" after winning. Some people actually did give it a chance and wound up loving it. Hell, I've never played the game and still enjoy the soundtrack (which is enough to get my vote against like half of these entrants!). No one was going to warm up to League on account of Draven, but I think that's what happened to Undertale around here.

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KamikazePotato
03/31/20 2:21:25 AM
#332:


I don't think Undertale will be as reviled as Draven is around here, but man Sans bombed. Characters =/= games, but that was still rough.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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SuperNiceDog
03/31/20 2:30:05 AM
#333:


transience posted...
the Guest experience, personified

all good spooky, we can rest in pepperonies

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The_Ctes
03/31/20 4:36:28 AM
#334:


Master Moltar posted...
transience gets the point for RE2 and Bloodborne

Uhh, Guest should have the point for Bloodborne.

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MereChristian
03/31/20 5:00:39 AM
#335:


CaptainOfCrush posted...
Draven could have been a warning sign, but it seems like Undertale "came into its own" after winning. Some people actually did give it a chance and wound up loving it. Hell, I've never played the game and still enjoy the soundtrack (which is enough to get my vote against like half of these entrants!). No one was going to warm up to League on account of Draven, but I think that's what happened to Undertale around here.

I've said this in another thread: "The Undertale fandom might've won a few converts here but the average GameFAQs voter is more likely to have contempt for that game."

Octopath definitely has a shot at winning.
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LinkMarioSamus
03/31/20 5:23:58 AM
#336:


I thought Undertale would be more likely to break 70% than lose.

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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
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MetalmindStats
03/31/20 5:46:48 AM
#337:


CaptainOfCrush posted...
Draven could have been a warning sign, but it seems like Undertale "came into its own" after winning. Some people actually did give it a chance and wound up loving it.
However, others such as myself gave it a chance and didn't wind up loving it, and probably in a similar proportion to those who did love it upon playing it post-contest. There's a fair few factors that distinguish Undertale as not being for every GameFAQs voter - most importantly that it lacks contemporary production values (not a problem for me personally, but the hype likely convinced people who would ordinarily never play an indie game), its humor is pretty intrinsically hit-or-miss, and it toys with convention and expectations at every turn.

I think in part this comes down to my picking philosophy - I'm certainly more comfortable with a well-liked game that has a high playrate, even if it isn't quite beloved, than a game that should by all rights be bigger here, yet is notably divisive. To some extent, that explains my RE2 > ME2 pick and practically all my Round 2 choices in debatable matches, among others.

KamikazePotato posted...
Characters =/= games, but that was still rough.
Agreed; I know that characters ordinarily do not equal games, but I feel like you have to take notice when one character has all the reasons in the world to outdo the other and fails to anyways.

Also oops, I totally forgot Bastion > The Walking Dead was a seeding upset, probably because all the other higher seeds have won, and I see those two as more-or-less interchangeable from a contest perspective. At least Octopath pulling the upset would be a very different ballgame from that match, or even the previous 14-seed JRPG breaking 40% on a 3-seed.

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"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!
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The_Ctes
03/31/20 5:53:57 AM
#338:


Considering how awful SANS did last contest and Draven too, I certainly believe Undertale will be heavily antivoted. I just struggle to see Octopath Traveler being good enough to win against it.

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EventualDecline
03/31/20 6:03:12 AM
#339:


So which game won last decade? I saw someone mention that it was Zelda, so which one was it? Wind Waker or Majoras Mask? I guess Twilight Princess is a possibility too. Id be suprised if games like Smash Melee, Kingdom Hearts, and Resident Evil 4 did not go far in that contest also. I was here at the time, but I dont remember that contest or its outcome at all.

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"High speed progress, step by step, into a trap....."
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squexa
03/31/20 6:06:15 AM
#340:


Majora's Mask won last GotD

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congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru
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EventualDecline
03/31/20 6:09:53 AM
#341:


squexa posted...
Majora's Mask won last GotD

Ok, thanks. I guessed right. Big surprise there, as gamefaqs , especially at the time, was always home to the worlds highest concentration of MM fanboys, at the expense of other games.

MereChristian posted...


Octopath definitely has a shot at winning.

What, the game of the decade? Octopath is definitely a better game than a bunch of the games that will likely beat it, but dont count on Octopath actually winning anything, certainly not game of the decade. Good luck with that one. Thats a pipe dream.

EDIT - You mean against Undertale. Got it. Yes, I think it could beat Undertale as well.

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"High speed progress, step by step, into a trap....."
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DoomTheGyarados
03/31/20 7:21:59 AM
#342:


Can someone remind me which match I signed up for I already forgot. Was it three houses slaughter?

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Sir Chris
Doom The Kanto Saga - Animated Series - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hH4wNFCrLM
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Master Moltar
03/31/20 10:41:07 AM
#343:


The_Ctes posted...
Uhh, Guest should have the point for Bloodborne.

Thanks, fixed!

Previous Results: Blowout City yesterday with 3 of the matches ending in 80%+ victories. One thing to remember is to try and not draw too much from fodder blowouts, as it's easy for someone to vote a game they like or at least have heard of over a game they haven't played/haven't heard of. Next round it'll mostly be cases were voters like both games, which is much harder to predict.

Crew Predictions: 15/16

Next Round Thoughts: Probably the most exciting set of R2 matches we've seen yet. Both RE2 and DOOM had strong results and you could make a case for either game. Bloodborne also looked really strong, while FE: Awakening only did about as expected. Is 'as expected' good enough to still be the favorite in that match though?

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 15
Kleenex: 15
transience: 14
Leonhart: 14
Guest: 13

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for RE2, Black Turtle gets the point for DOOM, Leon gets the point for FE, and ctes gets the point for Bloodborne.

Kleenex: 4
Guest: 4 (spooky96, Hbthebattle, Black Turtle, ctes)
Moltar: 3
transience: 2
Leonhart: 2

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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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Master Moltar
03/31/20 10:42:36 AM
#344:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
Can someone remind me which match I signed up for I already forgot. Was it three houses slaughter?
yep

also more guest sign-ups are open https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78525935

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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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Master Moltar
03/31/20 10:58:50 AM
#345:


Round 1 Shovel Knight vs. Dragon's Dogma

Moltars Analysis

Weird match but I like Shovel Knight here, especially after seeing how well Hollow Knight did since I think those games are relatively close in strength. Double D is just too old and too forgotten of a game here, while Shovel Knight has at least remained relevant over the years with ports and expansions.

Making comparisons to Hollow Knight/Berseria, Dragons Dogma should be stronger than that Tales game. If Shovel Knight shoots into the mid-60s here, that would be a really good showing for it and watch out undertale.

Moltars Bracket: Shovel Knight

Moltars Prediction: Shovel Knight 57%

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transiences Analysis

Shovel Knight is legit. It's somehow become an off-brand Nintendo offering, almost like Mega Man is but without all the nostalgia. People just see Shovel Knight and see Nintendo, think Smash, and that of course plays super well here. The character has had surprisingly good performances and the game wasn't so bad either, putting up a respectable number on GTA. Shovel Knight is probably pretty close to Hollow Knight in strength, probably above it actually. (Shovel Knight would also butcher a weak Tales game.)

I have no idea what to do with its opponent. Dragon's Dogma has its diehard defenders to this day. It has a surprisingly decent GOTY poll result that I didn't know about until two minutes ago, beating a FF title (okay, it was FF13-2) and doing kinda sorta okay vs. a Pokemon game and Xenoblade. If Shovel Knight bombs, Dragon's Dogma might be good enough to finish the job. It's probably better than a weak Tales game.

But... probably not THAT much better, so I'll take Shovel Knight fairly confidently.

transience's prediction: Shovel Knight with 59.55%

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Leonharts Analysis

I think this is a legit indie game test here. Weve seen Shovel Knight in 2015 Games and in the 2018 Character Battle. The game got 38% on San Andreas, and the character narrowly lost to Captain Toad. We think of those results as being pretty good for an indie game, but how will it do against something like Dragons Dogma? It feels like this game was popular for a short time, but it seems like its largely been forgotten. I think itll be more popular than stuff like Tales of Berseria and The Walking Dead just because its more known and more this sites type of game. I think Shovel Knight will be more popular than Bastion and probably not that far off from Hollow Knight. Theres enough room in the gap of the Hollow Knight/Berseria result for Shovel Knight to be a little weaker and still win, although I think itll be close.

Leonharts Vote: Shovel Knight

Leonharts Prediction: Shovel Knight with 52.88%

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Kleenexs Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZNbabKjKpA

If they left this as the title screen music in the current gen releases of Dragon's Dogma, it totally would have won. Dragon's Dogma is fucking rad and all you heathens should play it, but I really don't think it has any shot here. Shovel Knight is on of the most "in view" indie games of all time. He's in every goddamn game these days. I wouldn't be surprised if he was in Dragon's Dogma somewhere.

Kleenex's Prediction: Shovel Knight with 63.50%

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Guests Analysis - Hbthebattle

If we're talking about indies with strength, Shovel Knight is the near-undisputed king. It's on every console, had multiple free campaign expansions, and has crossed over with tons of different games, including Smash. I don't see any way Dragon's Dogma, which was never super popular, wins here. The only question is whether Shovel Knight beats Hollow Knight's result on Tales of Beseria, which I think it easily has the prestige to do so.

Shovel Knight with 65.2%

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Crew Consensus: Shovel Knight buries Dragons Dogma


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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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Master Moltar
03/31/20 2:13:15 PM
#346:


Round 1 Devil May Cry 5 vs Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

Moltars Analysis

Hey its been a while since weve had a debatable Round 1 match and potential upset!

Ive actually been going back and forth on this since the bracket came out. My original thought was DMC5 because its new and DMC is liked here, but it has just performed so poorly in every post-release poll it has been in. Hell, DMC games have always underperformed in polls, and now I have to debate taking one over a Donkey Kong Country game? The only game DMC has beaten in a contest setting before this is Mother 3, a Japan only game, and it couldnt even double that!

DK and his series used to be notorious chokers, but it has turned around since 2015. DKC2 won two very close matches before respectfully bowing out in 2015, and Donkey Kong himself silenced the doubters beating Tidus and Leon before respectfully bowing out to Vivi. Tropical Freeze doesnt have any great poll results, but it also tends to get stuck with Mario and Smash games so of course its going to look bad.

So yeah, even though this match seems even on paper, I feel better going with a DKC game over a DMC game. Nintendrones dont let me down!

Moltars Bracket: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

Moltars Prediction: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze 52%

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transiences Analysis

Okay, let me just say it: I will never assume that a Devil May Cry game -- the focus is on the game here -- is worth much of anything. I learned this lesson when fan-favourite DMC3 took on Mother 3, a game that never even came out here officially, and could only get 65% on it. DMC has lost convincingly to everything it's ever faced. But still, if this was DMC or DMC3, I would take it over Tropical Freeze, a game very few people cared about. DK (the character) has its own troubled past, and while DKC2 is better than anything DMC, the other games in the series are not contest worthy by a long shot.

But this is Devil May Cry 5. Nobody played Devil May Cry 5! Only the most serious of stylish action game players went to bat for that one. Its poll results are I guess okay, in that it lost to Bloodstained, Outer Worlds and the Untitled Goose game. That's bad, but it's not THAT bad.

Tropical Freeze has worse results, and it's a Wii U game which is a prime recipe for failure. Sure, it has a Switch port, and maybe some people checked it out. But it at least has a very good reason to look bad: every year there's one big Nintendo game that all the Nintendo fans flock to. Smash will SFF the hell out of Donkey Kong. And given that most people didn't play either, they're going to pick the Nintendo game with positive buzz over the DMC game that no one played and no one talked about. Go ahead and prove me wrong, Devil May Cry. It could certainly happen but I won't bet a single point on it.

transience's prediction: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze with 55.32%

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Leonharts Analysis

My gut instinct was to pick Devil May Cry 5. It did decently enough in GOTY last year, and Im kind of skeptical as to how much traction something like Tropical Freeze got. Then I started thinking about the fact that Donkey Kongs resurgence in these contests started with the release of Donkey Kong Country Returns, and so Im thinking there has to be some sort of correlation here. Ive heard so many good things about Tropical Freeze (I have a hard time getting into the style of gameplay of the two new games myself; I dont want to play as Donkey Kong with a backpack the whole time. If I wanted that, Id play Ratchet and Clank!), and so with the fact that it got a Switch port last year, its probably decently popular around here.

People have pointed to the fact that known quantities like Donkey Kong and Pac-Man benefitted from the fact that youre forced to vote in every match since theyll get a lot of apathy votes. Im sure theres some level of truth to that, but I think that also helps Tropical Freezes chances if thats the case. Devil May Cry has never been anywhere close to the popularity of Dante himself. Regardless, Im done doubting the ape. I think hes legit now and his newfound power is here to stay.

Leonharts Vote: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

Leonharts Prediction: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze with 54.65%


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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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Master Moltar
03/31/20 2:13:22 PM
#347:


Kleenexs Analysis

Does GameFAQs care about Devil May Cry these days? I suspect not. Despite DMC5 being received fairly well, it's a game I totally forgot even came out, if I'm being completely honest. The best any DMC game was ever able to do in a contest, was to beat a game that never came out in the US. Not that I have much of a respect for a 3rd tier Donkey Kong game in regards to contests, but in a battle of Nintendo vs. series very few people seem to care about anymore, I'm inclined to side with Nintendo.

Kleenex's Prediction: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze with 56.75%

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Guests Analysis - ZeldaTPLink

The fifth DKC vs. the fifth DMC.

We don't have stats on DMC5. And I have played neither game so I don't have much clue about how strong they are.

However, I played Character Battle X, and I want to see if I can draw a parallel from it. Both Dante and DK were in Division 1, having similar, and interesting, paths. DK got two consecutive upsets, with a revenge against Titus followed with a very unpredictable win against Leon. He was hyped to make the finals, but lost to the resident nintendo killer, Vivi. Dante, on the flipside, beat Cuphead with a not very convincing %, but then beat Lightning with a very convincing %, especially with the beatdown she had just dealt on the LiS main in R1. He was hyped to beat Ganondorf in R3, but also lost.

Using Xstats, Dante is projected to beat DK with 55-45. Is that the whole story? I don't think so.

First of all, Dante has always been a solid midcarder, but DMC itself isn't really that popular here. DMC5 had a lot of hype going for it, but it didn't do that well in its GotY poll. It's a classic games =/= characters case.

But Donkey Kong is... even more complicated. The DKC games have never been that strong either, and DK himself is a legendary choker. For most of contest history, the ape's job was to lose matches he was supposed to win. But if one of the two had an impressive run in 2018, it's DK. He clearly boosted there. Well, nintendo as a whole boosted in 2018, and dominated the bracket pretty hard, but there have been spikes of Nintendo dominance in the past, and they didn't actually boost DK like in 2018.

It's possible Tropical Freeze being released on the Switch is what mattered here. The Switch is one of Nintendo's most successful modern consoles, being considered by many a return to form, and Tropical Freeze being rereleased may have increased its playrate, since nobody cared about the WiiU. Well, if that can make DK overcome 16 years of chokery, what does that say about the game's strength? I think it's solid.

I don't know how strong DMC5 is compared to the rest of the series. I think it's... average? The DMC games all failed to enter the 2015 bracket, though. Tropical Freeze also did, but that was a pre-Switch era.

This match feels like a toss up. Does DK repeat his 2018 magic? Did Tropical Freeze boost? How much does DMC compare to Dante, since Dante is stronger than DK the character?

I feel like going with Nintendo, though. When in doubt, take nintendo. Yes, I just wrote a big post just to tell you nintendo wins, but it's because I thought this match had a lot of interesting theories that can predict it. We'll see which ones are true.

Donkey Kong Country 5 52-48% Devil May Cry 5

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Crew Consensus: Clean sweep for DKC? Oh no...

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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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Keltiq
03/31/20 2:39:30 PM
#348:


yes crew curse please save my perfect bracket

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I can't believe I lost the Character Battle X guru contest to some guy named Advokaiser
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LinkMarioSamus
03/31/20 2:42:15 PM
#349:


I picked Devil May Cry to win, except it kind of has a history of choking in debated matches so I switched.

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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
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Leonhart4
03/31/20 2:53:02 PM
#350:


Yeah, I kinda half expected a DKC sweep there. I don't feel confident in either game here, so who knows!

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Ranticoot
03/31/20 2:55:57 PM
#351:


DKC is probably the smart pick. Someone here said "when in doubt, pick the one that's on the Switch" and that's...not the worst theory I've ever heard! At least it's a one point match.

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Born to lose, live to win!
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WarThaNemesis2
03/31/20 2:58:58 PM
#352:


DMC/DKC feels like it's either going to be a close DMC win or DKC wins with 60+, and no in-between.

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Not a stinky alien. :(
Nintendo Switch Code: SW-5719-6555-8388
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