Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 282: Cancel Culture

(+) Yeah! (+)

its really troubling how many people are straight up crazy morons

people just being dumbasses is going to make this virus 10x worse than it has to be
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Maybe I'm just not looking in the right places, but I actually haven't seen anyone directly blame Trump for this. Had COVID-19 broken out five years ago, a non-negligible % of Americans would have earnestly believed it was an instance of God punishing us for electing Obama.

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Maybe I'm just not looking in the right places, but I actually haven't seen anyone directly blame Trump for this. Had COVID-19 broken out five years ago, a non-negligible % of Americans would have earnestly believed it was an instance of God punishing us for electing Obama.

Correct, people are blaming him for the poor federal response.

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

its really troubling how many people are straight up crazy morons

people just being dumbasses is going to make this virus 10x worse than it has to be

Yeah I'm definitely worried that a significant fraction of people will just refuse to be inconvenienced and continue as normal until they get sick (and some who are sick with mild symptoms will refuse to self isolate).

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Thread on the $1.5 trillion NY Fed buy since I keep seeing bad takes about it:

https://twitter.com/davidfickling/status/1238208213184626693

I'm sorry, the Dow doesn't jump 1300 points in 15 minutes in response to routine financial plumbing.

Public schools here off at least the next two weeks.
All real sports (lol xfl (edit: nevermind, they're canceled too now!)) canceled until further notice.
All tech conferences canceled.
Fast 9 delayed a whole year.
Basically a soft quarantine for a fortnight.

And it's only March.

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https://joebiden.com/covid19/

bUt TrUmP aNd BiDeN aRe ExAcTlY tHe SaMe

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Yeah I'm definitely worried that a significant fraction of people will just refuse to be inconvenienced and continue as normal until they get sick (and some who are sick with mild symptoms will refuse to self isolate).

Combine the facts that the majority of younger individual experience mild symptoms and the expected 15% mortality rate in elderly individuals, the next month or so could be really quite bad, and I attribute a major portion of this to Trump's straight up misleading statements downlplaying the seriousness of the disease. So many Trump supporters were mocking the severity of this even a couple of days ago. I wonder how much of the spread could have been stemmed.

I do think all these corporations are doing the right thing cancelling events, so that at the very least should make things slightly better.

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Biden's old chief of staff (who I assume is a very likely pick for CoS if he's elected) was Ron Klain, who headed up the Obama admin's ebola response. Ebola was almost certainly an easier crisis to deal with, but I'd certainly rather him be leading this response than Pence!

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Pence keep praying! Its working!
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Suprak the Stud posted...

https://joebiden.com/covid19/

bUt TrUmP aNd BiDeN aRe ExAcTlY tHe SaMe

Maybe this is a mobile issue, but a fullscreen pop-up asking for donations appears when I click this and I can't get out of it.

Ah NM, had to leave and click again 7 times but it finally let me in.

Yeah I'm on my laptop so I just had to click out of it once, but I cannot vouch how wonky it is on a phone.

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Look, I know reds gonna roll his eyes and this will probably be ignored, but if Biden lost to Trump with discrepancies like this, I feel like thered be a pretty big outrage

https://twitter.com/bootsriley/status/1237794300793999361?s=21

Also when anomalies a fraction of this size literally led to a coup in Bolivia there were people in this very topic saying that was good and ok because Morales was suspicious or whatever.

This sucks.

also to head off the obvious question, which is totally fair to ask:

https://twitter.com/bootsriley/status/1237864958076932096?s=21

I agree with this

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I hear you.

But at the same time I have never answered honestly to an exit poll because fuck exit polls.

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American exit polls are conducted by news organizations so they have something to talk about before the votes are actually counted. Exit polls in third world countries are conducted by the UN or other NGOs to ensure the vote is being accurately counted. These things are not the same.

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I've voted 8 times in my life and I've never been asked about an exit poll or anything, so I honestly have no idea how they work or where they're done.

I fully admit to knowing next to nothing about them except the numbers I see on the news.

But everyone talks like they are valid and matter, so I'm wondering about this.

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Ugh please no, not the fucking exit poll conspiracy theories again

First of all, the reported MoE for a poll is for the result FOR A SINGLE CANDIDATE, not for the difference in results between two candidates. For a two person poll, the MoE of the difference is twice as large.

Secondly, the MoEs are ONLY FOR SAMPLING ERROR. They don't account for additional errors caused by exit pollsters not getting a representative sample. Exit polls in the US have a ton of questions and not particularly high response rates, whereas in nations where they're used to validate election results they typically only ask 1-2 questions to ensure maximum participation. If there's a bias in your sample (e.g. maybe female voters are more likely to respond, or Bernie voters are more likely to respond because they're more excited about their candidate and want to tell people) the sample will not be representative. Pollsters will typically reweight to get roughly the correct demographics, but even doing that introduces error and you can't correct for everything.

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To follow up, the main purpose of exit polls in the US is to get estimates of the demographics of support, not to validate results (or to get those results a few hours early).

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HeroicCrono posted...

We closed at -9.99%. No. 4 all time.

Worst since 1987. (Which was all the time record, the other two are the Great Depression's Black Monday and Tuesday.)

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Look, I know reds gonna roll his eyes and this will probably be ignored, but if Biden lost to Trump with discrepancies like this, I feel like thered be a pretty big outrage

https://twitter.com/bootsriley/status/1237794300793999361?s=21

Also when anomalies a fraction of this size literally led to a coup in Bolivia there were people in this very topic saying that was good and ok because Morales was suspicious or whatever.

This sucks.

also to head off the obvious question, which is totally fair to ask:

https://twitter.com/bootsriley/status/1237864958076932096?s=21

I agree with this

This is bullshit and you need to stop peddling stupid conspiracy theories you don't even bother to research because it benefits the guy you like. Because 1) exit polls aren't perfect and 2) I can't even find this data. Just look at Texas:

https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/03/07/texas-2020-democratic-party-primary/

The guy here (and this is a single guy running this website) says exit polls show a 34% showing for Biden and a 34% showing for 34% showing for Sanders. He cites CNN's website. Here is the CNN exit poll.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/entrance-and-exit-polls/texas/democratic

First poll shows a 34% showing for Sanders sure enough...amongst Men. Amongst women it is 27% (which as you may notice is lower than 34%). I have no clue what poll he is even pulling from, because nothing matches his data. Go through and search for me if you want. But here let me do some number crunching and use the gender results:

There are 3370 total respondents. 44% male and 56% female. Giving you 1483 men and 1887 women. Sanders got 34% of the male vote and 27% of the female vote, or 504 votes from men and 510 from women (round down but I'll just give him the extra vote as a boost). That is 30.09% of the vote. Meanwhile Biden got 33% of the male vote and 33% of the female vote, or 489 votes from male voters and 623 votes from female voters. That is 33.00% of the vote.

(Someone feel free to check my math here)

The final results from Texas: 34.5% Biden and 30% Sanders. So pretty damn close.

And even if I'm wrong about the numbers. EVEN if this one random douchebag with a website is right about everything 100%: exits polls aren't perfect. You know who tends to respond to exit polls? People who are excited to talk about their candidate. Which one of the two candidates have more excited voters?

So basically more conspiracy theory peddling.

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literally rose twitter

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my favorite part about that $1.5T shit is that this happened a year ago and people were freaking out about that too, the exact same thing, that was debunked thoroughly

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Exit poll (EP) downloaded from CNNs website by TDMS on election night, March 3, 2020 at 9:03 PM ET. Candidates exit poll percentage/proportion derived from the gender category. Number of EP respondents: 3,130. As this first published exit poll was subsequently adjusted towards conformity with the final computerized vote count, the currently published exit poll differs from the exit poll used here and available through the link below.

And yet he provides no screen shot of the supposed exit poll he drew from that isn't available online any longer.

And, again, most importantly, exit polls are notoriously unreliable and overestimate support from "excited" voters.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

This is bulls*** and you need to stop peddling stupid conspiracy theories you don't even bother to research because it benefits the guy you like. Because 1) exit polls aren't perfect and 2) I can't even find this data. Just look at Texas:

It wasn't Red it was Suprak, but this was pretty much the response I was expecting <_<

I admitted I know nothing about exit polls! Reading pure numbers doesn't do shit for me because I know nothing about their reliability! That was my point! LotM's explanation that exit polls the UN calls out being done by the UN makes sense, and your math seems accurate so I guess I'm confused on how this even happens.

If I didn't see in real time, the American Left saying "This Bolivia shit is sketchy!" while people like LotM said "No this is fine" and then it turn out to be 100% sketchy I wouldn't be so inclined to distrust this shit.

But I literally just saw election bullshit blowup a country and the Centrist Dems defend it! You really can't blame me for not trusting them anymore.

Also I respect Boots Riley enough to take his source at their word, and that's both our mistake, I suppose.


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I think the exit polls conspiracies are silly but I also don't think anyone who supported the Bolivia interference really has the right to talk about poll accuracy right about now

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The exit polls were mostly bad for Hillary in 2016, too. They only get snippets of the voters, so while they may provide some information, this guy acting like they are 100% sacrosanct is very very misleading (at best).

Like someone else pointed out, CNN conducted these exit polls, not the UN. I mean if you trust CNN to be perfect at this sort of thing...you have a much higher opinion of CNN than I do!

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I was here shaking my head, if its any comfort Tony?

Most of the lesson is that exit polls give a basic idea but should never be trusted. I believe 2016 exit polls at various points were wrong for the fact that people didn't want to admit they voted for Trump because they didnt want to be seen as openly racist.

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I'm not sure why one would trust a source that is apparently using information that cannot be verified

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I've admitted that I was wrong about Bolivia and deferring to the OAS, though I'd like to note that what I supported was something like an audit of the election results. Furthermore there was a history of previous extremely questionable power expanding moves by Morales.

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red13n posted...

I was here shaking my head, if its any comfort Tony?

Most of the lesson is that exit polls give a basic idea but should never be trusted. I believe 2016 exit polls at various points were wrong for the fact that people didn't want to admit they voted for Trump because they didnt want to be seen as openly racist.

Cuz you are openly racist by voting for Trump.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

What field do you work in again?

Steel industry. Coke plant.

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I keep seeing people uncritically repeat this 100000 cases in Ohio number. Even John Delaney has betrayed me...!

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Trudeau's wife tested positive for Coronavirus.

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Man, this thing is really making a run for the elites, huh. There has to be a 100% chance Trump has it, right?

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Man, this thing is really making a run for the elites, huh. There has to be a 100% chance Trump has it, right?

If he has it and beats it, he's sweeping the general

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

If he has it and beats it, he's sweeping the general

But it's just the flu

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scarletspeed7 posted...

But it's just the flu

The flu killed his grandfather!

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Very much hope this is the case!:

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1238281063169961985

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We're not supposed to openly admit that we wish that people get the Coronavirus

But in a hypothetical alternate universe, there are some who would describe Trump getting the virus as both karmic and hilarious

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Trump would survive like Justinian survived the plague.

Trudeau refusing to get tested just like Trump now. Weird. Some leaders we have here.

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So when the markets open tomorrow 600 points below where they are now and inevitably plunge below where they started when Trump took office will all the conservatives here finally admit he's a shit president or am I gonna have to keep watching the mental gymnastics for another 8 months.

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Crossfiyah posted...

So when the markets open tomorrow 600 points below where they are now and inevitably plunge below where they started when Trump took office will all the conservatives here finally admit he's a shit president or am I gonna have to keep watching the mental gymnastics for another 8 months.

What does a worldwide pandemic destroying the market have to do with the president? Is every single world leader a shit leader under your philosophy?

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Crossfiyah posted...

So when the markets open tomorrow 600 points below where they are now and inevitably plunge below where they started when Trump took office will all the conservatives here finally admit he's a shit president or am I gonna have to keep watching the mental gymnastics for another 8 months.

It can be spun as giving the working class an opportunity to buy. Couldn't happen under Obama cuz the stocks were too expensive!

Corrik7 posted...

What does a worldwide pandemic destroying the market have to do with the president? Is every single world leader a shit leader under your philosophy?

If he werent an asshole the current outbreak wouldn't be as bad and we wouldn't be in near full shutdown mode.

So yeah, its his fault.

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Crossfiyah posted...

am I gonna have to keep watching the mental gymnastics for another 8 months.

What do you think

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Crossfiyah posted...

So when the markets open tomorrow 600 points below where they are now and inevitably plunge below where they started when Trump took office

Hey, that's not a good metric to judge Trump by. It's only fair to base it on where the markets were at the start of Obama's term. When you look at it that way, it's amazing how Trump has managed to save the economy after Obama and the Democrats crashed it in 2008.
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Corrik7 posted...

What does a worldwide pandemic destroying the market have to do with the president? Is every single world leader a shit leader under your philosophy?

He has been terrible in a variety of ways.

But when faced with the many truthful allegations of Trump's awfulness a common reaction is "But the Stock Market !!1!". This "defense" disregards the fact that a healthy market disproportionately benefits those already well off, but now it's about to be undercut by the fact that the gains have evaporated in less than a fortnight.

Now to be clear I am not blaming trump for the market drop. But I also do not think he was solely responsible for the market gain in the first place, so we can call that a wash.

What I will blame him for is for immediately expressing concern for the health of the market before expressing concern for the health of the american citizens.
Edit: And to expand upon that, he immediately tried to downplay the seriousness of COVID19 in an overtly obvious play to keep confidence high in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

He has been terrible in a variety of ways.

But when faced with the many truthful allegations of Trump's awfulness a common reaction is "But the Stock Market !!1!". This "defense" disregards the fact that a healthy market disproportionately benefits those already well off, but now it's about to be undercut by the fact that the gains have evaporated in less than a fortnight.

Now to be clear I am not blaming trump for the market drop. But I also do not think he was solely responsible for the market gain in the first place, so we can call that a wash.

What I will blame him for is for immediately expressing concern for the health of the market before expressing concern for the health of the american citizens.

That's an opinion. Again. How does it make him a terrible leader because a pandemic crashed the market? It could be any leader in America right now with this situation. And, it affects all leaders basically.

Was Xi Jiaping or whatever a terrible leader when their market crashed then became a good leader when it rebounded? Crossfiyah's argument is nonsensical.

He is trying to politicize the pandemic.

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