Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 272: Anti-Social(ist) Tendencies

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I am once again asking you to post in these topics
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worth carrying over from the end of page

https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1231392649384472576

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So does this mean Trump and Russia will start trying to harm Bernie now so he doesn't actually win the nomination? I assume the goal is to get a contested convention.

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Pretty sure you are wrong, pxlated. Trump and likely every incumbent has won the first 3 primaries.

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obviously there's a caveat that omits races with incumbent presidents or no competitors, corrik.

the reporting might be wrong regardless, but not for that reason.

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pxlated posted...

obviously there's a caveat that omits races with incumbent presidents or no competitors, corrik.

the reporting might be wrong regardless, but not for that reason.

Looks like Nixon did it in 1968:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Looks like Nixon did it in 1968:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

yep, looks like it

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de blasio, a mayor currently hated in new york who was laughed at here more than anywhere else for his presidential campaign, talking about showing humility.

fuck, this election has had not one but TWO NYC mayors in it.


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Wanglicious posted...

de blasio, a mayor currently hated in new york who was laughed at here more than anywhere else for his presidential campaign, talking about showing humility.

fuck, this election has had not one but TWO NYC mayors in it.

If Trump was a little less arrogant it could have had 3.

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So apparently Sanders/Warren could resign their Senate seat and force a special election on the November ballot and avoid their states R governors from replacing them longer term as long as they do so at least three months ahead of time

Not sure to what extent voters would consider that to be fuckery or if theres any small risk of a Republican winning, giving Rs an additional seat for free in the event of a Trump win.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

So apparently Sanders/Warren could resign their Senate seat and force a special election on the November ballot and avoid their states R governors from replacing them longer term as long as they do so at least three months ahead of time

Not sure to what extent voters would consider that to be fuckery or if theres any small risk of a Republican winning, giving Rs an additional seat for free in the event of a Trump win.

That is really high risk.

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Quite possibly!

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Quite the performance by Sanders in Nevada today. He's on pace to pick up a majority of the delegates, even more should Buttigieg fails to be viable state-wide.

While it's not the performance that Biden wanted, it (along with SC) will likely keep him as the not-Sanders candidate going into Super Tuesday which at that point he'll face off against Bloomberg.

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Biden is actually outperforming his predicted results in Nevada. Sanders is just out-outperforming his own in comparison.

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Biden's been dropping a bit as more results have come in :\

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First alignment numbers with 50% of the data:

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1231465225586663426

So Bernie gained ~13% from realignment; being above 15% everywhere is a huge advantage. Given where Biden is he was presumably gaining a fair amount in some places but also losing a lot from places where he wasn't viable.

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Final Alignment has him at 40%. Delegates Awarded is at 47%.

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/22/1920943/-2020-Nevada-Democratic-caucuses-live-results-for-final-alignment-vote

Buttigieg is actually above Biden in the Final Alignment but below him in awards delegates, which feels like karma after Iowa.

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Ah you're right, I knew they were reporting SDEs but my brain skipped a step.

I am very much not liking the prospect of not actually disambiguating the moderate clusterfuck, though. Hopefully Biden goes back up in the second half of the data...

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Thread:

https://twitter.com/nicolenajafi/status/1231248923706175488?s=21

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so we are definitely headed toward a donald vs sanders matchup it appears.

i believe that if the election were held today bernie sanders would win fairly comfortably, as reflected in polling.

however as we know its not held today. i think bernie has won over all the people he is going to win over (which is enough to win an election). while of course there are going to be individuals who switch to his side, in terms of population chunks i think hes got who hes got (in terms of the general election, more will come to him in the primaries as people fold). the thing that will determine who wins the general is if he can keep all those people are not bleed out from what is going to be a nonstop bashing on the socialist piece and the 93737 trillion million dollar for x legislation piece. the russia stuff recently, while not his fault, is also going to he weaponized against him.

theres also the x factor that trump may literally shoot someone on fifth avenue at this point, but after the past 4 years i dont think anyone still on the trump train will ever get off

certainly going to be an interesting election

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Thread:

https://twitter.com/nicolenajafi/status/1231248923706175488?s=21

Ahh yes, "The Jewish Guy is loud and cheap!" Totally not anti-Semitic.

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from what is going to be a nonstop bashing on the socialist piece and the 93737 trillion million dollar for x legislation piece. the russia stuff recently, while not his fault, is also going to he weaponized against him.

Nah. None of this will happen. The second he actually secure the nomination, the media will completely turn in his favor and fall in line. Maybe some of the never-Trump neocons won't, but nobody ever cared about them in the first place.

We're really going to have an openly socialist President. Sell your stocks now, folks. The American economy is over.

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iiaattgg posted...

so we are definitely headed toward a donald vs sanders matchup it appears.

i believe that if the election were held today bernie sanders would win fairly comfortably, as reflected in polling.

however as we know its not held today. i think bernie has won over all the people he is going to win over (which is enough to win an election). while of course there are going to be individuals who switch to his side, in terms of population chunks i think hes got who hes got (in terms of the general election, more will come to him in the primaries as people fold). the thing that will determine who wins the general is if he can keep all those people are not bleed out from what is going to be a nonstop bashing on the socialist piece and the 93737 trillion million dollar for x legislation piece. the russia stuff recently, while not his fault, is also going to he weaponized against him.

theres also the x factor that trump may literally shoot someone on fifth avenue at this point, but after the past 4 years i dont think anyone still on the trump train will ever get off

certainly going to be an interesting election

Bernie being the nominee makes Florida no longer a BG state and gives it to Trump. How else it will affect the map remains to be seen at this point.

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I am not so sure about florida but that's because florida is crazy

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Sanders best chance in Florida is to hope the Latino wave overruns the shortcomings he has in that state. Based on polling he may not even be viable during the democratic primary let alone the general.

Arizona seems like a state he could flip, which will be needed if Wisconsin remains red. While people like to talk about Texas I still think it'll be one of those close by not in danger states.

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charmander6000 posted...

Sanders best chance in Florida is to hope the Latino wave overruns the shortcomings he has in that state

I don't think Cuban expats are going to want to vote for a Castro sympathizer

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

I don't think Cuban expats are going to want to vote for a Castro sympathizer

The Cubans of that generation are Republican anyway for the most part.

Source: Live here.

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there are certain latino communities he can win over. Florida does not contain one of them, with bernie it's not in play and they're going red. it's one of the consistently gotten wrong things pundits do, they assume hispanics are a uniform bloc when we're really, really not. mexicans ain't cubans, which ain't domnicans, which ain't puerto ricans. central americans are the closest thing to a hispanic bloc out there and a lot tend to lean into religion or more traditional values anyway.

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Feels bad af to be a Bernie diehard and live smack dab in the middle of Trump country, Florida

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I assume Florida will be lost 50.5-49.5 in any election regardless of candidates, issues, whether the ocean has risen to swallow the east coast, or the franchise has been extended to gators.

say it with me: it's the most inelastic state imaginable

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Feels bad af to be a Bernie diehard and live smack dab in the middle of Trump country, Florida

Everyone wears a MAGA hat here.

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New polls today

Bernie up five in Penn
8 in Michigan
17 in Wisconsin.

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Wanglicious posted...

there are certain latino communities he can win over. Florida does not contain one of them, with bernie it's not in play and they're going red. it's one of the consistently gotten wrong things pundits do, they assume hispanics are a uniform bloc when we're really, really not. mexicans ain't cubans, which ain't domnicans, which ain't puerto ricans. central americans are the closest thing to a hispanic bloc out there and a lot tend to lean into religion or more traditional values anyway.

That's the interesting thing about how unelectable Bernie is. You can attack him in about a dozen different, totally disqualifying ways that it's almost impossible to remain focused. Sort of like the three stooges syndrome of Mr. Burns.

You could tell Central Americans that he's a militant atheist. You could remind Cubans that he has praised Castro. You can tell middle class Hispanics that he intends on taking away your healthcare. And you can tell legal immigrants that he wants open borders.

It must be a truly fascinating time to be a republican strategist. Maybe I'll take a major pay cut to join them?

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Please do. You sound very qualified :)

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SmartMuffin posted...

Nah. None of this will happen. The second he actually secure the nomination, the media will completely turn in his favor and fall in line. Maybe some of the never-Trump neocons won't, but nobody ever cared about them in the first place.

We're really going to have an openly socialist President. Sell your stocks now, folks. The American economy is over.

lol, im republican man but these networks like msnbc lean left on things because its very easy and profitable when its just social issues/going against the right. when someone like sanders comes in who is going to veer things hard left economically and their bottom line starts getting eaten, its going to be a different ballgame. believe me, you are already starting to see the fangs come out and the curtain get pulled back

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iiaattgg posted...

lol, im republican man but these networks like msnbc lean left on things because its very easy and profitable when its just social issues/going against the right. when someone like sanders comes in who is going to veer things hard left economically and their bottom line starts getting eaten, its going to be a different ballgame. believe me, you are already starting to see the fangs come out and the curtain get pulled back

You mean how they compared sanders to nazis yesterday? Lol

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I thought SmartMuffin was in the It doesnt really matter who is President camp
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

You mean how they compared sanders to nazis yesterday? Lol

which one said that? yes, thats pretty much what im saying you are going to see. im saying this in defense of him and against the media, if that wasnt clear

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or how you had Matthews on MSNBC yesterday basically say take 4 more years of trump.

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Wanglicious posted...

or how you had Matthews on MSNBC yesterday basically say take 4 more years of trump.

yeah his rise is going to expose them pretty badly. expect it to get worse the more wins he has and the more nervous they get. they should have started this a year ago

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They did but no one actually cares what they said.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

That's the interesting thing about how unelectable Bernie is. You can attack him in about a dozen different, totally disqualifying ways that it's almost impossible to remain focused. Sort of like the three stooges syndrome of Mr. Burns.

Some might find this comparison a negative, but you could literally say exactly this about Trump in 2016, and we know how that turned out!

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Some might find this comparison a negative, but you could literally say exactly this about Trump in 2016, and we know how that turned out!

Right. I am just banking on the Democratic base not being as shamelessly pragmatic as Republicans.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Right. I am just banking on the Democratic base not being as shamelessly pragmatic as Republicans.

Thats not an unreasonable bet tbh

Im all in for Bernie but Im still skeptical that Dems wont fuck this up

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So my current plan is once Bernie gets the nomination, let's convert that massive network into winning the Senate!

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

So my current plan is once Bernie gets the nomination, let's convert that massive network into winning the Senate!

considering what happened after 2016, i have no doubt that bernie/his campaign will continue working after november. that's kinda been their whole thing

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Thats not an unreasonable bet tbh

Im all in for Bernie but Im still skeptical that Dems wont fuck this up

It should be presumed they will until proven otherwise
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

So my current plan is once Bernie gets the nomination, let's convert that massive network into winning the Senate!

if that wasn't the plan from the beginning then we're totally fucked

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xp1337 posted...

if that wasn't the plan from the beginning then we're totally fucked

It very well may be, but I am making it a talking point since people talk about down ballot a lot.

Bernie has a lot of volunteers in all 50 states. Some senate nominees can expect help!

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Jakyl25 posted...

It should be presumed they will until proven otherwise

Absolutely, and I dont want any excitement I show about Bernie winning a couple states give you guys the impression that Im hopeful about the odds.

https://twitter.com/markruffalo/status/1231398153301176327?s=21

Especially when you read the replies to Mark Ruffalos extremely reasonable tweet and see thousands of Hillary, Warren, and Kamala stans talking about being #NeverBernie and how theyll never support someone Putin supports.

All this time crying about the Bernie or Busters and they cant even act like they arent hypocrites. Its sad as hell.

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