Board 8 > Adventure Time Mafia! Topic 7 - Premonition Dream - someone gets lynched!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Like look at scum!scare on day 3 after lynching a town!chris, high fiving Ulti

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnsAR4Gaa04

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Leanansidhe posted...

Are you accounting for 5tar j my being a bodyguard if empowered?

DoomTheGyarados posted...

what?

Leanansidhe posted...

He only became a bodyguard when targetted by Sbell or Puns

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Oh.

Hrm.

That makes it a bit more interesting. I think Han has done a good job of making this hard to meta due to this kind of unique mechanic.

I guess I am going to have to read over things yet again. Day 1 ended in modkill probably really hurt us because we would have gotten a lot more information about both you and ben one way or another.

two cents, town chris by default pays more attention to a night flip.

Scum chris sees its not who they shot and goes "ah, bodyguard" and moves on without noting the details.

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Also I don't think Chris has looked to see if Star crumbed his save yet which I think he does as town, but doesn't need to as scum since he would know who the shot was

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This is the issue

Chris said it himself, I'm the top of his town pile.

He knows for sure, 100% I am town.

I have 0 reason as scum to save him. I have negative reasons to do it.

He has no choice but to try and turn this day into me vs him, because he knows that until I'm dead I will be the voice in everyone's ear that Chris needs to go. I am the thorn in his side that will not go away as long as I live now, so he has to pay attention to me.

Lea's been along for the ride, he's tried and tried and no one has listened to finish her off, but no one has followed her lead either so he can hope that she just stays in a corner and just pops in here and there and he turns the knobs until she stays quiet

But now, he has a pest problem. I have the pelt, I have the eyes, I have his problems.

Bury me chris

Bury

me

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Honestly I wanna vote the Ben who seems to have no independent thought or free will whatsoever.
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Well here's my unique problem. I am town.

If no one caught the memo yesterday, I have no idea what to do with this game at the moment. I look at Lopen and he is really doing a great job of solving and reacting to events and changing his suspects.

Like day 2 ends and he is like "Oh yeah no way does Ulti bus Chris there, that was so a "haha I lynched town chris" move."

Lea and Scare seem to have no such recognition or thought. It's very different because it is notable that Lopen really shifted after that. He took in new information, and it changed his perception.

Hb has some of this as well, even though he worries me. He went from hating my attacks on him to going "Oh wait, Chris is doing more than I'd expect, maybe he is town." It's progression. It's thought.

I have a lot of such comments from Death throughout the game along with his interactions with people.

As Scare has said. He voted Ulti. That's... a good point. Legitimately, not trying to gloss over it. But now we're down to 7 and I go back and realize he switched to Lea first. And frankly if scare is scum and that was a bus... it was a really effective bus. It got any focus completely off of him for two game days to the point me and red were openly bickering.

Then I think about Ben. It confuses me that a scum ben would be willing to bus sultan but not Ulti in Chris' name. But more than that, I don't understand how someone can have the sincerely held belief that chris/ben is the team when looking at the end of day 2. I don't understand how one can place scum chris being bussed by scum sultan and scum ulti and scum ben who is also bussing scum sultan at the time decides not to bus scum vanilla ulti because... ???

You are using very dramatic language when really you just have a logic problem. I don't know if you noticed but Lopen doesn't think you make any sense either he's just being more plain about it.

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Additionally, I have the added information that "Chris is town" and that "Scare is not changing that vote no matter what."

Which means between our two votes it is either lynch chris (100%) bad or lynch scare (rng'd 66.6% bad) so it's always going to be "better you than me"

I am of course willing to discuss the game at great length, but if we can't make it past how chris/ben makes absolutely no sense for a variety of reasons (reasons I think lopen came to quickly) then I am not sure what civil discussion will change!

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htaeD posted...

Honestly I wanna vote the Ben who seems to have no independent thought or free will whatsoever.

What exactly are you referring to? I admit I doubt myself more when Chris is alive, 1. Because I respect his reads, and 2. Because he's kind of intimidating. But I've only been "sheeping" him so much because I agree with him. And because I trust he's town

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

but if we can't make it past how chris/ben makes absolutely no sense for a variety of reasons (reasons I think lopen came to quickly)

Chris Ben doesn't make sense because I feel you've been cleared for other reasons which I don't expect everyone to come to easily so I'll go into it one more time. If I had my super conspiracy hat on I see the logic behind it (you're riding it as an excuse to be alive and your lynch choices haven't been super pristine) but you don't really make sense as scum unless you think red could never play poorly enough to fool you into thinking he's scum as town, which I don't. Red has had plenty of off games particularly as of late.

As for why I think you're town, Chris is a combination of setup meta (there is probably a doctor to be enabled and no one has countered that) and mostly thinking I have a pretty good idea of how Ulti ticks. Scum Ulti absolutely sees a reeling town Sir Chris and wants to make history. The alternative theory and is they're both scum and Ulti is doing this as a bus tactic to clear himself. Here's the problem with that though: if you subscribe to the Ulti was interacting with scum theory, scare as scum bussing Ulti via trap to clear himself makes a lot more sense as Ulti only signed up as a replace and hardly posted, and said he would be busy before and during game. I highly doubt Ulti had a lot of interest in becoming confirmed town and playing a long game.

Now honestly Ben I only really feel is town due to it clicking with setup meta as we learn more about it. Like all the protection needing to be enabled means there's no protection for an indeterminate amount of time so I feel it would be more balanced to have a weak protective role in the setup to stop that.

I think the best case is on Hb by far coming into the day, but I'm coming around on scare based on today and analyzing the end of day 2 potentially involving scum-scum bussing as a play. Nothing about him being mortally convinced red was right about Chris being scum really makes sense in my eyes. I will say the Scare + Hb scumteam doesn't really work for me though, which is why I'm hesitant to vote him. I don't buy scum doubling down on Ulti early there, and I'd say other than the red hero worship scare has looked better.

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For me, its important to figure out Ben (and Chris by proxy), because it either opens or closes a lot of reads. (Too bad my workday was crazy busy)

Ben, can you paraphrase why your flavor is a protector?
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Leanansidhe posted...

When Lopen thought Chris was scum, Chris said he had famously bad logic, cost town games. Now that Lopen thinks Chris is town, now he has excellent logic, truly advanced thought process

Did Chris actually get that bad with me this game? Do you have a post where he said this? I felt he got that bad in Godzilla mafia but not here.

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I mean, I do have a bias of knowing that arguments against me are bad and knowing arguments in my favor are founded in reality.

I am not inclined to write 50,000 words, mostly because I am being stretched thin and also because I don't think it is needed. I only attack anyone's mafia skill to attack credibility. Just because someone says I am scum and I say I am not doesn't mean I am biased and the person attacking me is credible.

Also all of the night kills can best be summed up as "okay so tonight we're killing Chris' top town read."

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In my little bubble I am thinking whoever is leading scum is highly intelligent and knows how to combat a town chris, which also fits scare's ability as scum.

Night kills are denying me information and removing pieces I have marked off. There's a reason why I am confused. Scum has taken from me my surest reads. Also Corrik but rip corrik.

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Lea I am starting to come around to you probably being town. In that scenario it is vital we mend our fences so we can actually work together to find scum. I am sorry for the crudeness of my defenses, but I dont want to lose a mafia game because of such a thing.

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Leanansidhe posted...

Death, are you still not going to claim what your power is? I didn't press yesterday because I figured you were drawing a shot, which mission maybe accomplished. Although I have to think that 5tar didn't or couldn't save mzero has implications somehow. But if you had something that could help at all, you would right?

If I did, I would say it yeah.
But you are right, I dont know if I can draw a shot anymore. Because scum will probably assume I have nothing worth fearing anyway.

My power is the very oh so useful power of having my own discord.
....
With noone else on it
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I asked but got no answer, but I doubt I can recruit anyone to it. It feels more like this is the power that all princesses get if they are targeted
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Leanansidhe posted...

I don't know what world this scum Ulti who is too timid to bus Chris is from

Also for the record I've never argued this. I think Chris has but whatever, Chris is an egomaniac sometimes-- it's fine.

I said scum Ulti would not be motivated enough to bus scum Chris, because if he bags scum Chris there he becomes town "confirmed" to some level and I don't feel he'd want to buckle down for the long game in a game he posted 3 times in, made a contradiction in 2/3 of those posts, and signed up as a replace in.

The only way it makes sense is if they anticipate the Scare gambit, which only makes sense if Scare is ALSO scum. Really if you think Chris is scum I think the second natural scum becomes Scare all things considered, because I only buy that interaction as a three scum super gambit to super clear a player that isn't Ulti. But like, if your scumteam has Chris and Scare in it that's probably too advanced for them to want to bother with (and also requires Ulti to deliberately put a hole in his vote post which again, seems too advanced given my likely effort level from him), so it doesn't really make sense that way either. A two scum gambit to make Scare sit pretty makes more sense, or Scare being town and honestly catching scum (in which case I, again, like Hb as scum who joined the train as he's the jump that made the least sense).

Anyway I think you're stretching too hard to lynch Chris here to the point where you're not understanding the interactions between me and him very well nor are you understanding my arguments-- probably because he's been pissing you off this game which is fair. You can better prove him wrong by just calming down and analyzing the situation rather than going super bloodlust here. Be sure Chris is scum before you lynch him. I think setup meta + day 2 end of day not really making sense with scum Chris SHOULD be enough to sell you on its own.

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Lopen posted...

I said scum Ulti would not be motivated enough to bus scum Chris, because if he bags scum Chris there he becomes town "confirmed" to some level and I don't feel he'd want to buckle down for the long game in a game he posted 3 times in, made a contradiction in 2/3 of those posts, and signed up as a replace in.

What? You'd think being confirmed town would make Ulti less active, not more. This doesn't make any sense.
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Hbthebattle posted...

What? You'd think being confirmed town would make Ulti less active, not more. This doesn't make any sense.

It makes him have to play the game longer because he's not being considered to be lynched and he's also removing a strong ally in Chris to do so. It's easier for him to just be mostly idle the whole time and not rock the boat, or be a sacrificial lamb to clear a scum. It doesn't make sense for him to want to confirm himself at that price.

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Leanansidhe posted...

Lopen what flavour turns into cop?

I don't know enough about Adventure Time to tell you this. Do you have a guess?

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Leanansidhe posted...

No. I just reject the notion that there definitely needs to be a flavour that can turn into a doctor in the town this game.

I think I agree given that death got nothing as a princess.

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I think doctor and cop are probably locks but I mean who knows I guess.

We have a Scum Princess that flipped-- would she get recruited in too and falsely clear a scum potentially? That makes Death's role feel trappy more than anything. Isn't the only claimed princess other than Death Chris?

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I believe I keep repeating myself and no one is listening and I grow frustrated.

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Honestly I think Lea you would have found me a bit more agreeable if you had been discussing things like this earlier, but iI also accept my part of the blame for contributing to it.

Please give me things you have a problem with, hopefully bullet pointed, on why I am scum and I will focus on debunking.

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I said scum Ulti would not be motivated enough to bus scum Chris, because if he bags scum Chris there he becomes town "confirmed" to some level and I don't feel he'd want to buckle down for the long game in a game he posted 3 times in, made a contradiction in 2/3 of those posts, and signed up as a replace in.

That presumes that Ulti expected his bus to work at all.
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htaeD posted...

That presumes that Ulti expected his bus to work at all.

Chris was at 4 votes at the time and I wasn't on him

If Scare doesn't jump off it absolutely works.

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Look, I still think the most logical option today is Ben. His claim makes no sense with everyone else being a Vanilla, hes coasted off his claim, and he just doesnt have that fire he had last game as Town. A bunch of people have called him scummy today- Chris, Lea, Death, among others, yet Im the only one on him. Why is that?
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Hbthebattle posted...

His claim makes no sense with everyone else being a Vanilla,

Do you think a game with all protective roles being gated behind unlocks makes sense though? I don't. It feels more like enforcing a theme for the sake of being gimmicky than the best thing for balance.

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Lopen posted...

Do you think a game with all protective roles being gated behind unlocks makes sense though? I don't. It feels more like enforcing a theme for the sake of being gimmicky than the best thing for balance.

Yes, I do think it makes sense. The games setup is explicitly experimental, and clearly the other core role, some form of investigative role, is also locked behind the Heroes. And based on how the Heroes both died immediately, scum likely knows the game structure in some form. And based on whos been shot, Scum has no fear of killing power. Why havent they shot Ben?
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Leanansidhe posted...

If it's all the same to you Chris, I'd prefer the Ben bullet points debunked or no

Also semi-related, but Ben came in today all "Aw geez louise I sure was worried Red might be town!!" but he didn't voice ANY such concern yesterday, possibly because he's scum and wanted Red to be mislynched.

Instead of trying to be right or wrong, I am just going to give you my thoughts on all three as I have weighed them in my mind.

So first is his IGCD read. The first thing I think of is the person who was right there with Ben defending IGCD at the last second was Sbell. So in the vacuum of just the IGCD read it is possible Ben is scum defending him, but it has also proven true through Sbell that a town in misguided faith in IGCD can make that mistake. So it's not clearing of Ben nor is it damning.

Now I back away a step and look at where Ben's vote is. Sultan, another flipped scum. So I ask myself "Well, if Ben was willing to bus Sultan in order to keep up the act of protecting me and sheeping me, what benefit does it give him to all of a sudden not save me at end of day?"

Looking at Ulti he was:

• Low Energy
• Vanilla

So what would make a scum Ben hesitate to vote this train but not Sultan's? For Ben to be scum he has come up with this complicated plan involving me but low energy vanilla Ulti is someone he doesn't want to bus in only to establish credibility? It doesn't make sense to me. There could be an answer I am missing, but I can't find it myself.

Next up, the fact that he is protection but alive. For all intents Ben's role as protection is over if Scum just accepts me being alive. If they can contend with me being alive, it frees their night kill choice selection up a lot and it is no secret the longer I am alive the more people start twitching. Ben isn't a doctor who can protect the tracker, for instance.

Actually why didn't 5tar protect the tracker. What the hell am I missing something? <_<.

Anyway so for the point about him being protection it is easy for me to see a scum team that just ignores Ben (who hasn't been great this game himself and may be mislynched if kept around) and focus more on people unlikely to be lynched.

As for setup meta... boy setup meta is hard here. Not sure I can make heads or tails given the nature of the game.

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Lopen posted...

Chris was at 4 votes at the time and I wasn't on him

If Scare doesn't jump off it absolutely works.

I think you under-estimate how bad Ulti looked in that moment.
Granted, I didnt experience the time limit as everyone present did.
Also granted, it cannot have been a fully planned out attack and counter, since that would take too many pieces that scum does not have.
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Btw are we not massclaiming today?
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Hbthebattle posted...

The games setup is explicitly experimental, and clearly the other core role, some form of investigative role, is also locked behind the Heroes. And based on how the Heroes both died immediately, scum likely knows the game structure in some form. And based on whos been shot, Scum has no fear of killing power. Why havent they shot Ben?

If Chris's reads haven't been on point then scum shouldn't feel a need to devote two kills to getting rid of Chris. I think the big thing you can gather from this is (and I'm sure you know where I'm going) Lea is likely town, because if you look at Chris's game he's wasted like 3 days on her and this is the only day he's really drifted off that lead with much significance-- yeah he went off on a red tangent but that one was wrong too.

Keep in mind Ben was a lynch leader early and after claiming still had me and others going after that as a likely bogus claim. I see him as an easy piece to keep on the board as well, and leaving him implicates Chris too as a secondary benefit.

Now, the difference between scanning and protection to me is very different. Protection not existing at all gives scum free reign to kill anyone, which can be antifun for certain players as they just get axed unconditionally based on their rep. I think a game without scanning out of the gate is a bit more reasonable.

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htaeD posted...

I think you under-estimate how bad Ulti looked in that moment.

I actually would not have noticed if Scare hadn't pointed out the blatant contradiction in his previous posts, and I suspect with the time limit a lot of people wouldn't have. Granted I was on Chris for much of the day so maybe I wasn't fully digesting his vote as a potential negative because hey I thought Chris was likely scum then.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Additionally, I have the added information that "Chris is town" and that "Scare is not changing that vote no matter what."

You out of everyone should know just because I say I'm not changing my vote doesnt mean its actually set in stone.

And instead of trying to solve with the rest of the game you were ready to go to war with me when it wasnt needed at all

It doesnt jive


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