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TopicAdventure Time Mafia! Topic 7 - Premonition Dream - someone gets lynched!
Lopen
02/19/20 10:52:21 AM
#209:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
but if we can't make it past how chris/ben makes absolutely no sense for a variety of reasons (reasons I think lopen came to quickly)

Chris Ben doesn't make sense because I feel you've been cleared for other reasons which I don't expect everyone to come to easily so I'll go into it one more time. If I had my super conspiracy hat on I see the logic behind it (you're riding it as an excuse to be alive and your lynch choices haven't been super pristine) but you don't really make sense as scum unless you think red could never play poorly enough to fool you into thinking he's scum as town, which I don't. Red has had plenty of off games particularly as of late.

As for why I think you're town, Chris is a combination of setup meta (there is probably a doctor to be enabled and no one has countered that) and mostly thinking I have a pretty good idea of how Ulti ticks. Scum Ulti absolutely sees a reeling town Sir Chris and wants to make history. The alternative theory and is they're both scum and Ulti is doing this as a bus tactic to clear himself. Here's the problem with that though: if you subscribe to the Ulti was interacting with scum theory, scare as scum bussing Ulti via trap to clear himself makes a lot more sense as Ulti only signed up as a replace and hardly posted, and said he would be busy before and during game. I highly doubt Ulti had a lot of interest in becoming confirmed town and playing a long game.

Now honestly Ben I only really feel is town due to it clicking with setup meta as we learn more about it. Like all the protection needing to be enabled means there's no protection for an indeterminate amount of time so I feel it would be more balanced to have a weak protective role in the setup to stop that.

I think the best case is on Hb by far coming into the day, but I'm coming around on scare based on today and analyzing the end of day 2 potentially involving scum-scum bussing as a play. Nothing about him being mortally convinced red was right about Chris being scum really makes sense in my eyes. I will say the Scare + Hb scumteam doesn't really work for me though, which is why I'm hesitant to vote him. I don't buy scum doubling down on Ulti early there, and I'd say other than the red hero worship scare has looked better.

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