Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 266: Round 2 - The Discord in Concord

(+) Yeah! (+)

TheRock1525 posted...

100 US soldiers have traumatic brain injuries thanks to Iran's retaliatory strikes.

But sure. "Nothing."

oh give me a break dude

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TheRock1525 posted...

100 US soldiers have traumatic brain injuries thanks to Iran's retaliatory strikes.

But sure. "Nothing."

I didnt say nothing at all has come from it. I just said if nothing MORE comes of it.

Iran accidentally shot down a civilian plane because of it but I cant blame Trump for that.

We only killed enemy combatants in the assassination. No civilians were intentionally harmed by the Iranian response, just our military service members.

Overall seems like a net positive for everyone under threat from Soleimani
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xp1337 posted...

The thing about Bloomberg is his strategy doesn't make sense from a winning standpoint. As 538 pointed out, after Super Tuesday 38% of the delegates have been allocated and even if he won a surprising chunk of Super Tuesday delegates (Silver poses a hypothetical where he manages an impressive 30% of the Super Tuesday delegates) he'd need to win a massive chunk of the remaining ones to get to a majority by the convention (64% of all remaining delegates in Silver's hypothetical.)

Which suggest to me he isn't aiming for a majority of delegates but to force a brokered convention... and based on all the talk prior to his jumping in I actually think his primary motive is to try and stop Sanders at a brokered convention.

I don't think it can work but that's the only endgame hat makes sense to me for him.

And as big a disaster as a brokered convention would be if we arrive at that reality the nominee should be whoever has the plurality of pledged delegates. To select otherwise would turn it from a disaster to a catastrophe.

Yeah that has to be it, but given that hes going to be splitting the moderates down to floating around the 15% viability threshold I would imagine hes reducing the total number of moderate delegates (and yes, making it more likely that Sanders has the plurality).

If its split too many ways youre very likely to get a situation where many people see the person who should come out of a contested convention differently. Theres of course the person with a plurality, but there will also be people looking at the total vote in each lane (even though its not exactly true that those voters second choices would necessarily remain in the same lane). I could imagine things being especially contentious if, say, Sanders and Biden end up with like 30 and 28 percent, respectively, with the corresponding lanes containing totals of like 45/55%. No way to avoid pissing off a ton of people in that situation.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

People talk about the hypothetical Bernie/Warren delegate bloc pretty often but what happens if we get the increasingly likely-looking (and highly cursed) Biden/Pete/Bloomberg bloc?

I actually think the most catastrophic scenario entering a brokered convention is:

Sanders with the plurality but Biden/Buttigieg/Bloomberg/Klobuchar as a bloc have more delegates than Sanders/Warren. Like I just said, I think whoever comes in with the plurality should be the nominee as it would be the least painful option (though it would still be painful af if you reverse this scenario and it's Biden with the plurality but loses to Sanders+Warren) but that's the scenario where I get a little nervous at what ends up happening.

Ironically, I think that situation is a bit defused if Bloomberg somehow ends up with the most delegates in that bloc because I think he has the hardest case to sell there but ughhhhh I get chills thinking about this hypothetical.

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Grimlyn posted...

all the moderate SFF is just such an amazing mess, they can't at all figure out who's to lead that lane and they're eaching undeniably taking a significant portion of the vote for themselves away from others

today had Klobuchar fearmongering the frontrunner being a SOCIALIST and......... well if you're so scared of that why don't you drop out already

Yeah but if they manage to collectively win a majority of delegates I bet they'd come to a group decision pretty fast. I just dunno who it would be.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/more-us-troops-traumatic-brain-injuries-iran-missile-attack-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

Sorry I actually give a shit about soldiers unlike you or dear leader.

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What Trump said about the soldier head injuries was awful, I can grant you that.
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Bloomberg was asked if its good for the US to have two billionaires battle for the White House.

His response was "who's the other one?"

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Jakyl25 posted...

What Trump said... was awful

Fixed for permanent accuracy.


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TheRock1525 posted...

Bloomberg was asked if its good for the US to have two billionaires battle for the White House.

His response was "who's the other one?"

I won't lie I'm perfectly fine with Bloomberg just clowning on Trump the entire campaign. If he would just run ads and interviews doing that I would be fine with him.

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TheRock1525 posted...

https://www.businessinsider.com/more-us-troops-traumatic-brain-injuries-iran-missile-attack-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

Sorry I actually give a shit about soldiers unlike you or dear leader.

oh heavens no, some soldiers got concussions in a warzone

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Tinfoil hat Biden ran to help bernie and never had any plans to win. Shows party unity by giving Bernie his delegates

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Yeah but if they manage to collectively win a majority of delegates I bet they'd come to a group decision pretty fast. I just dunno who it would be.

I can't even begin to fathom what an unmitigated disaster a brokered convention would be. There are scenarios I can imagine (that aren't even that unlikely right now) where I don't know even know what the "fair" outcome is.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Tinfoil hat Biden ran to help bernie and never had any plans to win. Shows party unity by giving Bernie his delegates

I legit think Biden is running because he thinks he has the best shot to beat Trump. Like he doesn't necessarily want to be president, but REALLY doesn't want Trump to be president.

Like if he had real ambitions he would've run in 2016. He like everyone else had to assume Hillary would win, which means he couldn't even run until 2024 at the earliest. So while I don't necessarily think your theory is right, I could still see him urging his delegates to support Bernie if it comes to a brokered convention. But who knows - I'm just hoping it doesn't come to that nightmare scenario.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

oh heavens no, some soldiers got concussions in a warzone

Cool since it's not such a big deal then Trump could have just let us know.

What's that? Oh he lied and said there was no injuries because of the attacks. But if they're not a big deal why would he choose to lie? Hmmm...

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brokered convention where Bernie has plurality but the moderate block has majority is horrifying with the potential to shatter the party in chaos............ but the way the race remains at this point makes it look so incredibly plausible

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Grimlyn posted...

all the moderate SFF

LFF, actually, and can I say that i truly appreciate how our time spent analyzing GameFAQs contests has left us perfectly equipped to describe a phenomena happening on a national level

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xp1337 posted...

I actually think the most catastrophic scenario entering a brokered convention is:

Sanders with the plurality but Biden/Buttigieg/Bloomberg/Klobuchar as a bloc have more delegates than Sanders/Warren.

This is exactly the nightmare scenario I'm talking about. Like what if Sanders has the plurality, but a very small one, and the boring moderate block has a significantly more chunk of delegates than Sanders/Warren? What happens then?

Other than a guaranteed second term for Trump, I mean.

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Concussions, no big deal in 2020.

damn

at least we can say there's certainly no TJF in the primaries

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Given the way the Democrats allocate delegates proportionally the analysis for Bloomberg would not really change even if he participated in the early states unless he somehow won them which he knew was not happening. No one is going to have a majority unless a lot of people drop out or stop getting votes very soon.

After this cycle, it may be time for the DNC to think about adopting winner take all.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

This is exactly the nightmare scenario I'm talking about. Like what if Sanders has the plurality, but a very small one, and the boring moderate block has a significantly more chunk of delegates than Sanders/Warren? What happens then?

Other than a guaranteed second term for Trump, I mean.

Time for Sanders and Biden to fuse DBZ style I guess...!

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Suprak the Stud posted...

This is exactly the nightmare scenario I'm talking about. Like what if Sanders has the plurality, but a very small one, and the boring moderate block has a significantly more chunk of delegates than Sanders/Warren? What happens then?

Other than a guaranteed second term for Trump, I mean.

yeah... I don't know how it would be possible to avoid a Trump reelection in this insanely likely scenario

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Grimlyn posted...

damn

at least we can say there's certainly no TJF in the primaries

Isnt that Tulsis entire appeal

Theres a reason her support was 75% male...!

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yeah but 75% of 0% is pretty nonexistent!

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Grimlyn posted...

damn

at least we can say there's certainly no TJF in the primaries

I dont know where I saw this cursed take but I swear I've seen people argue Tulsi's initial support was helped because she was hot

Oh cool me thinking about the take summoned it while I was posting

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https://twitter.com/jessefferguson/status/1226966933892980736?s=21

Fun!

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Grimlyn posted...

yeah... I don't know how it would be possible to avoid a Trump reelection in this insanely likely scenario

The answer is that they just don't primary out Bernie (assuming he's in the lead) and actually support him. Half the reason the SOCIALIST angle is worrying is because the Dems aren't doing anything to make it less worrying. They'd rather use it to attack Bernie to try and stymie his momentum. Short term it maaaaybe works, long term it will haunt them.

I mean, you'll never convince Republican voters, but nothing ever would.

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xp1337 posted...

I actually think the most catastrophic scenario entering a brokered convention is:

Sanders with the plurality but Biden/Buttigieg/Bloomberg/Klobuchar as a bloc have more delegates than Sanders/Warren. Like I just said, I think whoever comes in with the plurality should be the nominee as it would be the least painful option (though it would still be painful af if you reverse this scenario and it's Biden with the plurality but loses to Sanders+Warren) but that's the scenario where I get a little nervous at what ends up happening.

Ironically, I think that situation is a bit defused if Bloomberg somehow ends up with the most delegates in that bloc because I think he has the hardest case to sell there but ughhhhh I get chills thinking about this hypothetical.

Sanders with a strong plurality and not getting the nomination would be the worst. If the runner-up is only a couple of points behind I think most people would agree the two candidates were relatively equal and understand that vote splitting is a thing.

However, if we get a scenario where Sanders got 35% and second place got 20% and then loses then you are going to have issues, even if the same vote splitting argument could be made

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

I dont know where I saw this cursed take but I swear I've seen people argue Tulsi's initial support was helped because she was hot

I agree with this cursed take btw. There's likely a significant numbers of male voters that base a lot of their opinions on female politicians by how hot they are (because that's how they judge females in general)

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charmander6000 posted...

Sanders with a strong plurality and not getting the nomination would be the worst. If the runner-up is only a couple of points behind I think most people would agree the two candidates were relatively equal and understand that vote splitting is a thing.

I super disagree. If Sanders is winning even by a little bit and doesn't get the nom, it is NOT going to be pretty.

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red sox 777 posted...

Given the way the Democrats allocate delegates proportionally the analysis for Bloomberg would not really change even if he participated in the early states unless he somehow won them which he knew was not happening. No one is going to have a majority unless a lot of people drop out or stop getting votes very soon.

After this cycle, it may be time for the DNC to think about adopting winner take all.

Issue is, as a brokered convention looks more likely, the less likely candidates with delegate are going to drop out.

We could have seven people going to the DNC

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charmander6000 posted...

Sanders with a strong plurality and not getting the nomination would be the worst. If the runner-up is only a couple of points behind I think most people would agree the two candidates were relatively equal and understand that vote splitting is a thing.

However, if we get a scenario where Sanders got 35% and second place got 20% and then loses then you are going to have issues, even if the same vote splitting argument could be made

In the latter scenario Im pretty confident that Sanders comes out of the convention with the nomination (I imagine everyone besides Bloomberg would immediately direct their delegates to vote for him). Im not sure where it starts to get dicey in the Sanders lead/moderate lane lead plane.

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I still think the best primary system would be state reps from each party getting together to pick a candidate for their state.

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Pete won by .1% of SDEs and we are not even sure of that is accurate. "Pete wins"

If Bernie has even one more delegate than # 2 and isn't the nominee I am literally moving.

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the 2016 convention was already ugly and that was absolutely clear-cut

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I for one am a fan of over-the-top-rope battle royales and suggest that be the new primary format.

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FFDragon posted...

I for one am a fan of over-the-top-rope battle royales and suggest that be the new primary format.

Chris Christie '24

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LordoftheMorons posted...

In the latter scenario Im pretty confident that Sanders comes out of the convention with the nomination (I imagine everyone besides Bloomberg would immediately direct their delegates to vote for him). Im not sure where it starts to get dicey in the Sanders lead/moderate lane lead plane.

You've got more faith in the moderates than I do because I'm pretty sure it gets "dicey" the instant they have a combined 50.1%. And it can still get worse if some scenario occurs where they use the superdelegates to pass the threshold!

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Also I thought this Tulsi campaign was a myth until I went to Whole Foods yesterday and there were like twelve people bothering everyone who walked in.

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Yeah, the moment Bernie doesn't win on the first ballot the superdelegates come in and Bernie drops about 10 points.

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If the superdelegates swing a popular vote winning candidate out of the nomination, the Dems are handing the election to Trump and they have to know that.

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They're the DNC. They don't know that, or they don't care.

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I have to say that it is absolutely bonkers that the conventional wisdom on the primaries changed so much from the results of a single small and extremely white state (and its not necessarily wrong since theres a feedback loop between where the race is perceived to be and where it goes). I imagine that wed be having a very different conversation if SC had been the first primary!

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Also wow at these mind made up/might change numbers (best for Bernie, unsurprisingly, but then Biden and then another big gap)

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1227001744636465152?s=21

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Well, that's the difference between candidates with actual fanbases and those that are hoping for a bandwagon and/or weird circumstances to win.

Didn't expect Warren to be in the latter camp though. That's a rough result for her chances.

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Warren was never viable tbqh.

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I wonder if there is any person or small group of people besides Obama whose endorsement(s) would put a dent in the coordination problem in the moderate lane

...probably not

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I mean if Hillary attacks Bernie one more time it might not matter anymore...!


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LordoftheMorons posted...

I wonder if there is any person or small group of people besides Obama whose endorsement(s) would put a dent in the coordination problem in the moderate lane

...probably not

Trump.

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