Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 263: NOT INVITED to CPAC

(+) Yeah! (+)

more like the iowa ca-ca m i rite

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FFDragon posted...

Real talk, if there was ONE TIME for a "Trump clowns the Dems on Twitter" this is it.

I'm actually a little let down.

Wait until at least 1AM for shitposting hours

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Yeah, this ineptitude makes every Democratic candidate look like a loser before we get any real results. It'll be outrageous if Iowa isn't punished for this in 2024.

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It'll be done and somehow have Warren and Klobuchar in a tie for first.

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Kinglicious posted...

It'll be done and somehow have Warren and Klobuchar in a tie for first.

A+
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Who woulda thought Tulsi Gabbard would be tied for first in Iowa at this point.

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FFDragon posted...

Also

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1224558756354306048

lmao what a shitshow

Ofc cuz he wants to delay the results as long as possible if they hurt him so it won't affect the results in the next states.

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As for an explanation behind Sanders:
A forensic analysis was done on the machines and found unusual data. A similar coding issue was found and officials discovered that packets were being interfered with a series of complicated connections that ultimately were decrypted: it was data sent to Moscow before relaying back to the US in an altered form. The original votes have been placed.

Goddamn Russians, I swear. It's not that nobody likes Sanders, it's that only Russian operatives do.

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cory booker is BACK IN IT

https://twitter.com/MrDanZak/status/1224523194637438977

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https://twitter.com/petebuttigieg/status/1224564353040625665?s=21

Pete seems to have forgotten to disable a scheduled victory tweet in all the chaos
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Mayor Pete claims victory. On to the White House! Biden campaign claims the results maybe shouldn't be trusted!

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

cory booker is BACK IN IT

https://twitter.com/MrDanZak/status/1224523194637438977

This was on CNN. They asked the one girl if this made unity of the party seem weak. She said no, why would it. Lol.

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https://twitter.com/petebuttigieg/status/1224566143043674112?s=21

At least this one is technically correct
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/petebuttigieg/status/1224564353040625665?s=21

Pete seems to have forgotten to disable a scheduled victory tweet in all the chaos

Alternatively he's treating this clusterfuck like calling for dibs.

"Who won?"
"It's unknown."
"Who won?"
"Still unknown."
"I see. ...I won this."
"Bu--"
"Can't tell me I didn't~"

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shotgun

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Corrik7 posted...

This was on CNN. They asked the one girl if this made unity of the party seem weak. She said no, why would it. Lol.

The unity of the party has never been stronger.

We all hate Iowa.

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Sorry we're taking shotgun privileges sway from you too. No assault calls.

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Kinglicious posted...

Alternatively he's treating this clusterfuck like calling for dibs.

"Who won?"
"It's unknown."
"Who won?"
"Still unknown."
"I see. ...I won this."
"Bu--"
"Can't tell me I didn't~"

After all the chaos settled down, the Iowa DNC agreed that the "dibs" method was the fairest and most democratic method left.

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Didn't Buttigieg need this win the most? Might as well go all in and hope it builds some kind of momentum.

Biden on the other hand needs to hope the final results place him closer to the top three. His lead in Nevada is small and while he may destroy in South Carolina, you don't want the "front runner" to be 0-3.

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charmander6000 posted...

Didn't Buttigieg need this win the most? Might as well go all in and hope it builds some kind of momentum.

Biden on the other hand needs to hope the final results place him closer to the top three. His lead in Nevada is small and while he may destroy in South Carolina, you don't want the "front runner" to be 0-3.

Klobuchar probably needed it even more if you want to count her as being in it! But yeah, Buttigieg needed it more than the other three.

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Biden supposedly finished in single digits in 5th. We will see though.

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charmander6000 posted...

Didn't Buttigieg need this win the most? Might as well go all in and hope it builds some kind of momentum.

Biden on the other hand needs to hope the final results place him closer to the top three. His lead in Nevada is small and while he may destroy in South Carolina, you don't want the "front runner" to be 0-3.

pete and klobuchar needed it to establish themselves as legit threats.
bernie needs it to establish himself as the frontrunner.
warren is somewhere between those two.
biden though just needs to perform well. if he doesn't then his argument of being the most electable goes out the window and then he has nothing. a notable loss for him here means his numbers will drop everywhere else and the not bernie (and maybe not warren) candidate will gain massively. his base is sticky because they're convinced that he has the best chance to beat trump. if he ends up proving he can't beat 3 or 4 other democrats, why the fuck is that believable?

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Well, for one thing Iowa (and NH) are white as fuck and Biden has the most support among minorities!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Well, for one thing Iowa (and NH) are white as fuck and Biden has the most support among minorities!

This is not true!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Well, for one thing Iowa (and NH) are white as fuck and Biden has the most support among minorities!

Not everyone has that insight. Just look at Sanders in 2016. Iowa and NH were something like two out of his top five states on paper. Those performances alone gave voters the belief that he could challenge Clinton and essentially kept his campaign alive until the end.

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https://twitter.com/zachdcarter/status/1224546058119917568?s=21
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

This is not true!

?? Which part are you saying isn't true?

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charmander6000 posted...

Not everyone has that insight. Just look at Sanders in 2016. Iowa and NH were something like two out of his top five states on paper. Those performances alone gave voters the belief that he could challenge Clinton and essentially kept his campaign alive until the end.

Oh I'm not saying a bad finish wouldn't hurt Biden, just that it wouldn't logically be incompatible with him being the strongest candidate overall. It's a really bad state for him.

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Biden is not a run away for minority support.

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Bernie supposedly releasing internal numbers soon to fire back at Pete declaring victory. CBS and CNN saying the problems today were because of rules put into place because of Bernie Sanders.

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oh god.
so apparently the app has ties to hillary's 2016 campaign manager and romney's 2012 campaign manager.

that explains everything, the app committed suicide with took two shots to the backend and its corpse was found between binders.

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here's bernie's numbers

https://twitter.com/misyrlena/status/1224578150358831108

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Wanglicious posted...

oh god.
so apparently the app has ties to hillary's 2016 campaign manager and romney's 2012 campaign manager.

that explains everything, the app committed suicide with took two shots to the backend and its corpse was found between binders.

Also questions if Pete's campaign got tens of thousands in donations from the company also.

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if those results are true, pete's numbers are remarkable and he's gonna take biden's place.

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https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1224574845536624641

Better to wait for the official numbers than to try and absorb numbers released by campaigns based on incomplete data (at minimum, the decision to release them is presumably dependent on how good the numbers are for that campaign).

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Only 40% of precincts and likely a slight Bernie bias due to his workers. Have to see what actually comes out... If they ever release the results.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

here's bernie's numbers

https://twitter.com/misyrlena/status/1224578150358831108

Ooh boy. I know this obviously isn't the full picture...but this would be close to best case scenario.

Now we just have to wait like twelve more days for them to sort all this out to know if I should be excited or disappointed.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1224574845536624641

Better to wait for the official numbers than to try and absorb numbers released by campaigns based on incomplete data (at minimum, the decision to release them is presumably dependent on how good the numbers are for that campaign).

I mean yes that is definitely the rational take...

But I choose to be irrationally hopeful instead!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Better to wait for the official numbers than to try and absorb numbers released by campaigns based on incomplete data (at minimum, the decision to release them is presumably dependent on how good the numbers are for that campaign).

True, but if they're even in the ballpark in terms of accuracy, Biden got rolled. I'll have to take a look at South Carolina polling to see if he's dominating as hard there as is general perception... because it feels like no one at all is excited about the guy.

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Wanglicious posted...

if those results are true, pete's numbers are remarkable and he's gonna take biden's place.

I have very little faith he can spin it into winning momentum. Biden's pretty resilient and the South will be split. Maybe he'll steal enough support for a contested convention though.

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Pete's campaign releases numbers saying based on 77% precincts they did 8% better than they expect and expect to have won the state. They were viable in 81% of districts, in those 77%.

*Shrug*

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

True, but if they're even in the ballpark in terms of accuracy, Biden got rolled. I'll have to take a look at South Carolina polling to see if he's dominating as hard there as is general perception... because it feels like no one at all is excited about the guy.

538's polling average has Biden +17.5 over Bernie in SC

But yeah, If Biden is actually below 15 or something it's gonna hurt. I don't think it's necessarily a death blow, but ouch if true.

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I'll have to take a look at South Carolina polling to see if he's dominating as hard there as is general perception... because it feels like no one at all is excited about the guy.

South Carolina:

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1224078403592167425

Biden: 25%
Sanders: 20%
Steyer: 18%
Warren: 11%

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Oh, one observation about Bernie's internal numbers - Pete is the candidate who showed the most growth between the First and Final counts, and by a noticeable margin. The supporters from tonight's doomed candidates (Biden, Yang, Klobuchar, Steyer) presumably favored Pete when they were forced to re-align.

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Anyway, I'm guessing those numbers overstate Bernie's support (example mechanism: excited precinct captains in places where Bernie did well being more likely to report to HQ), and if there's much of a difference lot of his supporters are probably going to be convinced that it's rigged, which is gonna fucking suck

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biden was killing it in SC for a while but he's not anymore.
you can't make your pitch of being the most electable candidate when you lose.

the big takeaway from the numbers bernie gave isn't that he took first, that's a trend we could expect. it's the 2nd round numbers: pete is the only one who got more votes. meaning that in terms of uniting the party, in terms of being the more electable guy, pete's the only one who can make that claim. for most candidates it's not that big a deal to lose iowa but for biden losing like this? it makes him just look like shit.


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metroid composite posted...

South Carolina:

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1224078403592167425

Biden: 25%
Sanders: 20%
Steyer: 18%
Warren: 11%

that's the most recent poll but it's probably worth noting that particular outlet seems to consistently rank Biden closer to other candidates so it probably isn't quite that close...yet

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/south-carolina/

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In personally funner news - I can't wait to give this topic a firsthand account of the NEXT caucus in three weeks.

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Nate seems to agree with my take! (Short thread)

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1224580573324365824

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so somebody explain to me why the delegates in this caucus system aren't given proportional to your win but redistributed evenly among those who pass the threshold?
like as a joke i totally appreciate and love the irony of it happening to Bernie but as a democratic system it's quite possibly the dumbest one i've heard yet.


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