Board 8 > Do you think trump wins re election ?

(+) Yeah! (+)

but do you want him to win re election?

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I'd currently give him a 1/3ish chance. And no, I absolutely do not want him reelected.

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He has to

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Well I didn't think he'd win last time, so I'll assume he'll win again in hopes I'm wrong a second time.

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I give him an 80% chance. And called the last election almost perfectly. 48/50, and off by less than 1% in the other 2.

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You have to think right now hes a heavy favorite.

People vote with their wallets regardless of where the impact came from.

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unfortunately, yeah

he's got the rich vote, the white supremacist vote, and the batshit lunatic vote, which probably gets him a majority at this point

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I'd say he's about 80-85% likely at this point.

I don't want him too, but I'd say his odds are better now than they were in 2016. I think the end map looks exactly the same, with maaaaaybe PA coming back blue depending on the candidate.

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I don't want him to, but I think his chances are pretty high.

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Everything the Democrats have done in the last 6 months has only made him more popular. You cant go by then vocal minorities that overrun places like Reddit or Current Events here on gamefaqs. Trump is the heavy favorite.

linid0t posted...

Everything the Democrats have done in the last 6 months has only made him more popular. You cant go by then vocal minorities that overrun places like Reddit or Current Events here on gamefaqs. Trump is the heavy favorite.

He can definitely win, but I dont see the case for calling him a heavy favorite when Biden (whos leading the Dem primary race) consistently outpolls trump by the high single digits in head to heads.

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linid0t posted...

Everything the Democrats have done in the last 6 months has only made him more popular. You cant go by then vocal minorities that overrun places like Reddit or Current Events here on gamefaqs. Trump is the heavy favorite.

He's not a heavy favorite. I know polling only tells part of the story, but he'snot polling well. Does he have a good shot? Of course. But if you think he's a heavy favorite you're deluding yourself just as much as the people you called out.

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If they screw Bernie Sanders over again, yes.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

He can definitely win, but I dont see the case for calling him a heavy favorite when Biden (whos leading the Dem primary race) consistently outpolls trump by the high single digits in head to heads.

Hilary led him the same way.
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v_charon posted...

Hilary led him the same way.

And Hillary would have won if not for the Comey letter. Trump was elected very narrowly (by like 70000 votes across three states). I think you can certainly make a case for Trump having an over 50% chance, but totally dismissing the fact that he's significantly down in head to head general election polls strikes me as being pretty similar to the pundits that ignored the actual polling in 2016 (which had Trump down by 3% and with an electoral college edge. And surprise surprise, he lost the popular vote by two with an EC edge!)

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havent really looked over recent state by state polling but I imagine we are likely looking at a situation where Trump is almost certainly going to lose the popular vote but has more than a shot at an electoral victory.

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I agree with that generally. I just disagree with the idea that the Dems don't have a chance!

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I really question this theory that the Comey letter had much of an effect. That movement in the polls could have just been Republican and independent voters finally facing the reality that Donald Trump was their only way to avoid a Hillary Clinton presidency. And they made the inevitable choice when faced with that horrible prospect.

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red sox 777 posted...

I really question this theory that the Comey letter had much of an effect. That movement in the polls could have just been Republican and independent voters finally facing the reality that Donald Trump was their only way to avoid a Hillary Clinton presidency. And they made the inevitable choice when faced with that horrible prospect.

There was a very sharp change in the polls (several points) immediately after the Comey letter, and no other drastic such change in the week before or after. Obviously its impossible to definitively prove that it was decisive, but I think the evidence for that conclusion is pretty strong (indeed, stronger than for other things which conceivably were also decisive but which stretched out over the whole campaign, like sexism or the actions of the Russians).

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I agree with that generally. I just disagree with the idea that the Dems don't have a chance!

It would have been a lot better without stirring up the wackos with this pointless impeachment thing. This is their undoing.
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Most likely and I think he was ns it comfortably again.

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People keep saying "Impeachment will be the dems undoing!" but impeachment is pretty popular. Nobody who wasn't already voting Trump is going to feel sorry for the guy who regularly bullies people.

I think he has a strong shot at winning, but I don't think Impeachment has any negative effect on that. (On the contrary, I think it sends a message that Donald Trump is corrupt, and that he's unfit for office). Joe Biden is a pretty dull candidate, and those tend to lose.

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Dancedreamer posted...

People keep saying "Impeachment will be the dems undoing!" but impeachment is pretty popular. Nobody who wasn't already voting Trump is going to feel sorry for the guy who regularly bullies people.

I think he has a strong shot at winning, but I don't think Impeachment has any negative effect on that. (On the contrary, I think it sends a message that Donald Trump is corrupt, and that he's unfit for office). Joe Biden is a pretty dull candidate, and those tend to lose.

Trump's approval rating has climbed since this impeachment inquiry began, and spiked when he was actually impeached according to some sources. The thing about this country is that a large number of people don't actually vote. It's impossible to know for sure what a 100% voter turnout would look like, but I stand by my belief that this stirs up backwoods nuts who might not have actually went out to vote and now, sensing this, will.
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I'd say it's 50-50 at this point.

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The comey letter meant shit. The problem is everyone is in a depressed fearful state because of how much social media has ruined society. People are lonely, isolated, pissed, etc. The primary guiding force of the alt right is fear. Most of the alt right are very fearful people with lots of anxieties, and feed on injecting that onto others is their course of action.

There is a reason why this is happening all over the world. Bolsonero, La Pen getting as far as she did, brexit somewhat revolves around this. Hell even progressives poster child Sweden has seen the swedish democrats rise immensely in the polls, who stand for very similar things as the alt right.

The problem is just nobody goes outside anymore. Everyone sees everyone elses fake highlight reel on instagram/youtube/fb/twitch/etc and get jealous. Then they turn on their mandalorian for their baby yoda memes, but never address the problems that they have. Fuck 2007

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LordoftheMorons posted...

There was a very sharp change in the polls (several points) immediately after the Comey letter, and no other drastic such change in the week before or after. Obviously its impossible to definitively prove that it was decisive, but I think the evidence for that conclusion is pretty strong (indeed, stronger than for other things which conceivably were also decisive but which stretched out over the whole campaign, like sexism or the actions of the Russians).

What did the state by state polls show? If the move in the national polls came from pearl clutching moderates in safe blue state and red states, then it didn't really change anything in the EC, just the national popular vote.

Also, if the Democrats had nominated a candidate who wasn't obviously guilty, they might have won. Comey bent over backwards to avoid prosecuting her, and his letter seemed to be some weak attempt to pretend to be impartial. Comey came up with an entirely new term "extremely careless" to describe Hillary's actions just so he could avoid prosecuting her. So she was either guilty, or she was extremely careless. People very reasonably didn't want either as president.

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red sox 777 posted...

a candidate who wasn't obviously guilty

I mean, this works pretty well for Trump though.
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Trump confessed to everything. Hillary denied it.

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What ever the only reason why hes president is case of what he did to Vince McMahon at wrestlemaina

I mean if he really confessed to "everything" he should probably not still be the president.
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100% chance of Trump being re-elected.
It's not if he's re-elected at this point. It's how much of an utter landslide victory it will be.

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