Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7

(+) Yeah! (+)

Zelda
Sephiroth
Pikachu
Ganondorf
Tifa
Bowser
Alucard
Auron
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Sephiroth
Zelda
Pikachu
Ganondorf
Tifa
Auron
Alucard
Bowser

That's my feeling. I think Auron/Geralt is misleading, and Kirby/Bowser is misleading. Bottom 4 are really close together though.
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hm...isn't beating X better than getting 56% on Zero?

is Zero that close to X?

Well, that's the question in some of these divisions when you look at all the #2 finishers. If you think Tifa beats Vivi, she's got a great shot at beating Ganondorf, for instance.
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Probably not that far off. I could see Zero SFFing X to win actually.
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Zelda
Sephiroth
Pikachu
Tifa
Bowser
Ganondorf
Alucard
Auron

Zelda
Sephiroth

Should be above the rest. Not sure who's stronger but both should be lower end Noble Nine strength

Tifa
Pikachu
Bowser
Ganondorf

High midcarder strength. Ganondorf's probably the most likely of the group to be a fraud, since I don't really know how good 52% on Vivi is and that Chun Li match is still bizarre.

Auron
Alucard

Not really trusting these guys. Feel like both just went through easy divisions and will get destroyed when they run into the big boys though I'd love to be proved wrong.
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So Sans os the favorite to become the ultimate loser now, right

Sans < Pac-Man < Bayonetta < Geralt < Auron < Sonic < Snake < Mario < Link

That sure is ironic.

MetalmindStats posted...

Zelda
Sephiroth
Pikachu
Tifa
Bowser
Ganondorf
Alucard
Auron

This looks really good.
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I think Seph/Zelda at the top and Auron at the bottom makes the most sense. that middle tier is a little trickier.
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maybe this is a better way to look at it. rank these

52% on Vivi
55% on Yoshi
51% on Luigi
57% on Charizard
53% on Red
53% on Geralt
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55% on Yoshi
57% on Charizard
51% on Luigi
52% on Vivi
53% on Red
53% on Geralt

also 60% on Ryu > 62% on Aerith

that implies that Amaterasu beats Aerith and Squall, too

which I kinda like
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I said this in the Stats Topic, but I do kinda think Ammy's gonna be a little overrated this year due to the fact that she's the one who beat Draven. Her board vote (and ensuing dropoff) against Lara was almost joke character level. Same with Seph, but that one's easier to brush off because that's what always happens to Seph.
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Ammy having a strong board vote against someone like Lara is not entirely surprising, though. I could see it if it was a different opponent, but I don't think she had a snowballing effect.
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Well, western characters usually don't have great board votes, but dropping 6%+ from the freeze is pretty drastic.
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Zelda
Sephiroth
Tifa
Pikachu
Bowser
Ganondorf
Alucard
Auron
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you know, I just played with the new bracket for a few minutes and there's probably a great chance to debate if the noble nine holds here. I think it's pretty likely.
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there's one potential noble nine upset that i like so far
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yeah I like a few
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X-Stats up to this point:

Division 1

Ganondorf 50.00%
Vivi 48.04%
Dante 43.60%
Donkey Kong 43.26%
Chun-Li 41.09%
Leon Kennedy 38.35%
Tidus 37.26%
Spyro the Dragon 36.02%
Lightning 29.98%
Cuphead 24.77%
Yu Narukami 24.13%
Dragonborn 24.02%
Aya Brea 23.59%
Neku Sakuraba 21.40%
Victor Sullivan 19.08%
Chloe Price 15.48%

Division 2

Pikachu 50.00%
Yoshi 45.20%
Zero 43.44%
Knuckles the Echidna 38.10%
Kratos 36.59%
Wario 34.53%
Scorpion 33.59%
Zidane Tribal 32.92%
Master Hand 26.96%
Velvet Crowe 26.55%
Monika 24.47%
Shantae 23.26%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 22.89%
Primrose 22.43%
James Sunderland 20.69%
John Marston 19.63%

Division 3

Alucard 50.00%
Pokemon Trainer Red 46.19%
Sora 45.36%
Big Boss 44.18%
Princess Peach 43.19%
Crash Bandicoot 41.64%
Kefka 40.56%
Yuna 40.38%
Ridley 38.29%
Cecil Harvey 38.16%
Bomberman 32.59%
L-Block 32.29%
Ryo Hazuki 28.05%
Kazuma Kiryu 25.50%
Neptune 22.80%
Godot 22.16%

Division 4

Bowser 50.00%
Kirby 46.14%
Charizard 43.45%
2B 41.81%
Terra Branford 41.02%
Ness 38.70%
Shadow the Hedgehog 36.17%
Phoenix Wright 29.24%
Ike 28.86%
Isaac 27.42%
Chris Redfield 25.19%
Guile 23.49%
Gordon Freeman 22.61%
Joel 21.74%
Estelle Bright 19.40%
Cayde-6 18.56%

Division 5

Zelda 50.00%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.81%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
Fox McCloud 35.77%
Jill Valentine 32.83%
Waluigi 32.19%
Captain Toad 30.26%
The Boss 29.30%
Shovel Knight 28.70%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
D. Va 20.37%
Aloy 19.18%
Hat Kid 17.69%

Division 6

Auron 50.00%
Geralt 46.86%
Bayonetta 46.04%
Simon Belmont 44.81%
Vincent Valentine 44.20%
Pac-Man 44.13%
Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%
Lucina 34.56%
Riku 32.77%
Shulk 32.41%
Claire Redfield 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 27.12%
Sans 25.27%

Division 7

Tifa Lockhart 50.00%
Mega Man X 49.82%
Luigi 48.64%
Mewtwo 41.90%
Frog 37.33%
Revolver Ocelot 31.48%
GlaDOS 31.44%
King Dedede 31.17%
Miles Tails Prower 29.52%
Geno 26.81%
Master Chief 26.29%
Nathan Drake 25.55%
Miles Edgeworth 21.92%
Isabelle 19.28%
Monokuma 17.64%
Goro Majima 16.29%

Division 8

Sephiroth 50.00%
Ryu 39.74%
Amaterasu 38.63%
Captain Falcon 35.07%
Lara Croft 34.84%
Albert Wesker 29.72%
Richter Belmont 27.78%
KOS-MOS 27.76%
Commander Shepard 26.59%
King K. Rool 25.93%
Ellie 25.29%
Lloyd Irving 25.08%
Aqua 23.66%
Metal Man 22.37%
Quiet 16.98%
Draven 9.16%
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heck yeah Geno > Master Chief
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yeah those Division 7 results actually make me think Luigi might have SFF'd Tails a bit
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Tails got SFF'd.

I'll just assume Goro Majima can beat Isabelle and call it a day.
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LeonhartFour posted...

yeah those Division 7 results actually make me think Luigi might have SFF'd Tails a bit

I was saying this had happened the entire day of that match!
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Well, a lot of people expected Luigi/Tails SFF.

but yeah as LOL-worthy it would be for Geno to beat Chief I don't think it would happen

until Geno gets announced for Smash
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the mere rumor of Geno being in Smash is probably worth more than Mario RPG already
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ranking round 1 matches in the big bracket

Mario/Sephiroth
Snake/Zelda
Tifa/Samus
Crono/Bowser
Mega Man/Pikachu
Sonic/Auron
Cloud/Alucard
Link/Ganondorf (you can argue this should be much higher just to see how high it goes)
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transience posted...

the mere rumor of Geno being in Smash is probably worth more than Mario RPG already

Maybe, although that would mean Tifa's even stronger than we thought because that match was pretty much in line with their strength levels in the past.

Mario/Seph and Snake/Zelda are definitely the two biggest matches in round 1. I don't see a lot of upset potential in any of the others.
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While I don't see the upset happening, I don't see Mega Man/Pikachu and Crono/Bowser as complete locks, and it'll in particular be interesting to see how Crono looks.
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Sephiroth beating Mario in Legends would be interesting because it allows for both Tifa/Mario and Tifa/Samus to happen. It's been said in the past that Tifa seems to overperform against female characters, even in a losing effort. If Mario and Samus are indirectly equal to each other, why not put the Tifa "female overperformance" factor to the test against Mario and Samus and see whether Tifa performs better against Samus compared to Mario.
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Guys you are missing out on something:

Seph > Mario would allow for Mario vs Sonic to happen.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Guys you are missing out on something:

Seph > Mario would allow for Mario vs Sonic to happen.

or sonic > snake

how much has mgs dropped?

or both
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Guys you are missing out on something:

Seph > Mario would allow for Mario vs Sonic to happen.

it wouldn't make it likely to happen though
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LeonhartFour posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Guys you are missing out on something:

Seph > Mario would allow for Mario vs Sonic to happen.

it wouldn't make it likely to happen though

Well it needs Sonic > Zelda and Mario > Samus

wow look at chrono trigger murdering this poll

hope yall are ready for cbx champion crono
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such a weird contest that's turned Sephiroth into the plucky underdog
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he feels like a slight underdog that no one feels comfortable picking
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yeah everyone's afraid of the Odyssey boost and their preconceptions that Mario is the second strongest character even though he really doesn't have a performance that indicates he is
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I wouldnt even go that deep. Id just compare through Amaterasu
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through Amaterasu Squall would have a great shot at Seph
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Seph > Mario is the Lopen upset special

That and Sonic > Samus, still denying us Mario vs Sonic
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this will be the year Samus finally beats Mario
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I guess I should clarify Sonic > Snake in winners first

The creatures of planet earth boost gonna take Sonic to the upper echelons of the noble nine believe.
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LeonhartFour posted...

this will be the year Samus finally beats Mario

this but unironically
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Sonic should just be happy to beat Zelda.
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Lopen posted...

Seph > Mario is the Lopen upset special

That and Sonic > Samus, still denying us Mario vs Sonic

Mario would double sonic. Seriously.
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Guys you are missing out on something:

Seph > Mario would allow for Mario vs Sonic to happen.

it wouldn't make it likely to happen though

Well it needs Sonic > Zelda and Mario > Samus

That semi will most likely be snake mario.
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The Mana Sword posted...

wow look at chrono trigger murdering this poll

That's not really surprising.

I'm just disappointed that it's SFFing FFVI harder than ALttP is SFFing SMW. That is the case, right? Like we don't really think that SMW would beat FFVI on RPGFAQs?

2004 X-Stats suggest no. CT 59-41'd SMW in the Division 16 semis while ALttP only got 52.66% against FFVI, and then CT barely squeaked out the win over ALttP in the Division Finals.

2009 is pretty much useless for determining anything because divisions were based on 3-year spans and one of these covered the SNES's "prime"--which meant that SMW, a launch title, was mostly facing NES games while CT, which was relatively late in the system's lifespan, had to deal with a lot of PS1 and N64 stuff.

2015 might be even less useful for determining this because of all of the SFF matches set up, and also because SMW ran headlong into the rally entrant. So unfortunately the only reliable results we have to compare this to is 2004.

The Mana Sword posted...

hope yall are ready for cbx champion crono

Still not buying it. For one thing, the large amount of first-party Nintendo in that poll means that CT is getting LFFed less than most other entrants, similar to Link/Mario/Samus/Crono 2008. For another, remember again what I just said about 2004. Chrono Trigger did win Division 16, if only barely. Except that's the only game Crono has to draw strength from, whereas Link (and Mario) have stronger games on the N64. SM64 beat CT twice in 2009, one of them in a situation where the LFF seemed to favor CT.
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