Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 204: Cory in the House of Representatives

(+) Yeah! (+)

Couldn't think of anything clever that wouldn't upset me regarding voter suppression, so here's a Board 8 classic title.
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Braun seems to have flipped Bloomington area.
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K
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Donnelly looks like hes going to lose based on really early results.

Hes plummeting on Predict It.
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Walorski is beating the ass of her opponent. So is Barr. Those are two races they were hoping to flip according to CNN.
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Corrik posted...

Walorski is beating the ass of her opponent. So is Barr. Those are two races they were hoping to flip according to CNN.

Not the first one. That was 95% republican on 538. Barr was only 60% though and grouped in the toss up.
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NVM they just showed Bloomington not in yet
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

Walorski is beating the ass of her opponent. So is Barr. Those are two races they were hoping to flip according to CNN.

Not the first one. That was 95% republican on 538. Barr was only 60% though and grouped in the toss up.

CNN pointed to it as they opened up at 6pm and said if they win that then a blue wave is real.
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Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

Walorski is beating the ass of her opponent. So is Barr. Those are two races they were hoping to flip according to CNN.

Not the first one. That was 95% republican on 538. Barr was only 60% though and grouped in the toss up.

CNN pointed to it as they opened up at 6pm and said if they win that then a blue wave is real.

...Yeah because it was so impossible for them to win.

A flip like that isn't a blue wave, it's a blue hurricane. It would imply that the Reps would lose every single election.
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Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

Walorski is beating the ass of her opponent. So is Barr. Those are two races they were hoping to flip according to CNN.

Not the first one. That was 95% republican on 538. Barr was only 60% though and grouped in the toss up.

CNN pointed to it as they opened up at 6pm and said if they win that then a blue wave is real.

Well yeah because it's not expected, so if it flipped then that'd be insane
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CNN was dumb or ignoring polling if they said that! 538 said if Dems won that one itd be an avalanche.

Barr is in a R +10 district only so thats a much better barometer.
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Im also not watching CNN but if they said something more like winning this district means its a blowout then, sure. Dems would have like 300+ seats though in that scenario.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Im also not watching CNN but if they said something more like winning this district means its a blowout then, sure. Dems would have like 300+ seats though in that scenario.

Dunno their exact wording but they keyed on it as a race to watch.
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Remember friends, whatever happens tonight, Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump already won politics for a generation :)
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Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Im also not watching CNN but if they said something more like winning this district means its a blowout then, sure. Dems would have like 300+ seats though in that scenario.

Dunno their exact wording but they keyed on it as a race to watch.

That's just kinda dumb then. Polls didn't show that and 538, which looks at the "other stuff" too gave republicans 95.1% chance of holding that district. That was not one to watch.

Kentucky 6 is though!
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My polling place was packed despite it raining with occasional downpours. Think it was the most crowded I've seen it.
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Looking for signs of whats happening with Democratic incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana? In Bartholomew County, which had 1 percent of the states vote in 2016, a bit more than one-third of its precincts have reported. Trump won it by 33 points in 2016, and Donnelly lost it by 8 points in 2012. Currently Donnelly trails there by 9 points, which is close to his 2012 result when he won statewide by 6 points.

Encouraging, but early results in other counties aren't good (again, I don't know where those votes are coming from and it is hard to tell for sure with so little votes in).

BUT

Since Indiana has started counting 538's percentage for Dems capturing the Senate went from 19% to 14% and Donnelly is under 40 cents now on Predict It. Not a good start.
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if you don't know where the votes are coming from it seems a bit premature to react imo

i don't think i could handle it personally >_>
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Next wave of polls closing!

Lots of competitive house races in this batch including several must win for the Dems if they want to retake the house.
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Kaine and Sanders just won with 0 percent of the vote counted.

RIGGED
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Bball time. Tag me if something crazy happens
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Would have been extremely surprised if hadn't happened, but good job to my home state for reelecting Tim Kaine instead of a white nationalist.
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Tiny Switzerland County isnt staying neutral in Indianas 2018 Senate race. In the 2012 Senate race, it was almost evenly split, going for the GOP candidate by a little over 1-point. But this time around, Republican Mike Braun is ahead by 32 points with 10 of 12 precincts reporting.

This is the case in a lot of the redder counties btw compared to 2012.

Donnelly likely loses unless he has a huge turnout in the bigger cities. And if he loses, something like -4 or -5 is definitely a possibility.
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I remember when Virginia was a legit swing state.

Now they're team FUN.
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https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1059955427469942784

Well, this is interesting
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Assuming the Democrats do take the house, who are likely candidates for speaker?
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Shaduln posted...

Assuming the Democrats do take the house, who are likely candidates for speaker?

Pelosi

There isn't really a question.
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Like it's just set that she will be speaker?
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Shaduln posted...

Assuming the Democrats do take the house, who are likely candidates for speaker?

Really depends on the margin

If the Dems win big I'm sure it'll still be Pelosi. No idea if it's close (lots of Dem candidates pledged not to support her as speaker).
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Shaduln posted...

Like it's just set that she will be speaker?

Well, technically no. And I think some House candidates have either said they don't agree with her or hedged, but in reality what'll happen is this:

Democrats get together and hold an informal vote among just themselves. Pelosi will win this.

If the Dem House margin is small: Those candidates who said they were against her will say they voted someone else in that informal vote, but Pelosi won, and they're not going to just not vote for her in the real thing and prevent the House from having a Speaker/have it fall into chaos with calls for vacating the chair, etc.

If the Dem margin is a bit healthier: Pelosi lets those people vote against her in the real thing because she doesn't give a **** and has the 218 needed votes elsewhere.
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Im watching NBCs coverage, and as results come in they compare them to 2016 and 2012, and Gillum and Nelson are both ahead of the winning percentage of votes.

Well see how it goes.
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Yeah, I'm watching NBC's as well.

They just noted that the Dems did pick up a Governorship... in Guam.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yeah, I'm watching NBC's as well.

They just noted that the Dems did pick up a Governorship... in Guam.

Guam!
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yeah, I'm watching NBC's as well.

They just noted that the Dems did pick up a Governorship... in Guam.

You got a problem with Guam, guy?
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Yeah. Guess there's not much to report yet... I'm looking forward to the 8PM closings since that's my state. I've been told my district is considered a battleground!
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I highly recommend NBCs coverage, btw.

Watching CNN, you can tell theyre covering whatever is hottest for ratings.

On NBC, you can tell theyre a bunch of straight-up political NERDS, and it makes for much more interesting political TV.
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McGrath just took the lead over Barr, now with 39% of precincts reporting 53.2 - 45.6. She currently is winning Fayette 60.2% to 39.8%. Barr won this district by roughly 1% in 2016.

The "bad" news for McGrath is this is with 59% of Fayette reporting and a lot of smaller counties haven't reported at all yet.
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Neeeeeeeeeeeerd!
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SupremeZero posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yeah, I'm watching NBC's as well.

They just noted that the Dems did pick up a Governorship... in Guam.

You got a problem with Guam, guy?

Not at all. Just that the U.S. territories don't feel as relevant as the states since the current administration tends to forget that they're actually a part of the country at all.
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And Virginia 10 becomes our first flip of the night!
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VA-10 was the most obvious flip and it was hilarious seeing Republicans continually throw millions of dollars into the void for it.
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Barbara Comstock lost, making NoVA's Congressional delegation all Democratic
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

And Virginia 10 becomes our first flip of the night!

Did Donnelly's loss not get called yet?
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They have not called it yet. Based on the counties reporting, Braun's lead was to be expected.

They have called that the Republicans will hold on to Florida 6.
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Donnelly is almost certainly done done. RIP.

Manchin and Nelson both look okay so far.
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538 has the Dem's House odds up to 11/12, but their Senate odds are down to 1/8.
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And we've got another! Shalala will take Florida 27. But Riggleman takes Virginia 5, another one thought to be a Democratic target.
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are you all ready

for

BETOMENTUM
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