Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hey there!



Hey, you!

?

Yeah, you! Hi! It looks like you might be new here. Well, you came to the right place. I take it youre interested in joining us here, right? Ehehe, I see it written all over your face, youre super curious! Well then...

Welcome to the Contest Analysis Club!

Im the president of the Club, Master Moltar! Pretty cool name, right? The club also has several other members you should meet, theyre all really fun!

First up, we have transience! Hes very reliable and social, but sometimes can be a little out of touch. Its okay though, no ones perfect.well except for me, ahaha~.

Next, theres Leonhart! Hes super smart, and the most technical member of the club. Some think he needs to make better predictions, but I like him just the way he is!

Then, theres Kleenex! Hes full of energy and super spunky! His writing style does take a while to get used to, but some people find that charming!

And those are the current members, but I didnt forget you! Whats your name?



Huh? Guest? Thats a silly name...but I like it, ahaha! Congratulations, youre the newest member of the Contest Analysis Club!



What do we do? Well, in addition to fun activities and social gatherings, were all really big fans of analyzing contests! You showed up at the perfect time too, because a Character Battle is happening now! Our club looks at each match in the Contest and does a write-up about it. In the write-up, we talk about our thoughts for each match, and give a prediction of what we think is going to happen. Then we share our write-ups with each other and the world! Its pretty fun!



Its not hard at all! Just put your pen to the paper...or keys to the keyboard as the kids say these days, ahaha. Everyone in the club has a different writing style, so its up to you to find the style that suits you best. The most important thing is to enjoy yourself here and have a good time!

Okay, everyone! I look forward to seeing...um... Can you hear me? Tell me you can hear me. Anything. "Please help me."

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to [email protected]

Aloy vs. D.Va - Lopen
Jill Valentine vs. Fox McCloud - ctesjbuvf
Shovel Knight vs. Captain Toad - Nameless2000
Waluigi vs. Aerith Gainsborough - tennisboy213

Geralt vs. Rosalina - WitcherGeralt
Ryu Hayabusa vs. Simon Belmont - Black Turtle
Sans vs. Pac-Man - spooky96
Bayonetta vs. Riku - Bane_Of_Despair
Auron vs. Lucina - RoseChevalier
Magus vs. Vincent Valentine - Zylothewolf
Shulk vs. Sub-Zero - TsunamiXXVIII
Ren Amamiya vs. Claire Redfield - MZero
---

What a day.
---

so who picked Ezio and Squall winning the board vote
---

Square sucks and Square rules I don't get it
---

Zelda is just over here laughing at all these other losers
---

transience posted...

Square sucks and Square rules I don't get it

Old Square rules
New Square sucks
Vivi doesn't count
---

KamikazePotato posted...

Old Square rules

*except Cecil
---

KamikazePotato posted...

transience posted...

Square sucks and Square rules I don't get it

Old Square rules
New Square sucks
Vivi doesn't count

Cecil also doesn't count
---

Lookin good to get two up over the crew here

Good thing the guest extends my will
---

I don't think Metal Sonic wins here. Ramza... man, I have no idea. I feel like Garrus grows as the board vote wears off but also brackets.
---

results have been recalibrated
---

Yeah, Metal Sonic isn't winning.

I don't have a feel for Garrus/Ramza yet.
---

You can pretty much call how brackets are going vs board vote by comparing the first minute to the first 5.

I think Boss and Garrus have a decent bracket lead. Metal tanked pretty hard on update 3 though so much less confident there. Still like Ramza's chances, though!
---

Waluigi time.
---

I guess it was a bit of a longshot for Zelda to put up a performance above 75%, but I put in a fairly bold prediction as the guest and might just claim a Accuracy Challenge point for the guest. Very likely Zelda will drop overnight, so she may finish under my prediction.
---

really proud of metal sonic, thank you everyone for the support! he's doing way better than i thought he could
---

looks like we may finally have a real match
---

if Ramza wins a match because people think he's a chick is it still worth it

this is the question I'm currently pondering
---

Garrus/Ramza is a close one but I think I'm most interested to see how Squall rises. if he can't get much above 70 then that's really bad, but I could see a situation where he rises to heaven and ends up around 75.
---

He's gained two percent in the last two updates.

I think he ends close to 75%, even if he doesn't quite get there.
---

The original release of FFT was never released in Europe, so Ramza could very well collapse during the deep night vote. That might be the only thing which can keep this match close, assuming Ramza doesn't pull away before reaching that point.
---

wow, this isn't really moving. I'll put my money on Garrus, I guess.
---

Yeah, I think Garrus wins. Like Luster said, Europe ought to favor him pretty strongly, so if it's 50/50 right now, that ought to be enough for him to edge out Ramza.
---

I'm not worried about the dead hours. I'm worried about the day.
---

If Ramza has Old Square trends (and since he has no Euro vote, he probably does), he'll suck during the day, too, so either way, Garrus probably has this unless he starts building a lead really soon.
---

and there's the lead change
---

that was a huge update
---

Just checked the updater. Ramza fell off of a cliff on that update. Could be an anomaly.
---

Hat Kid ftw

It does seem most of her strength is board vote though (or board anti-vote on FF).

heh, I kinda forgot that the late night vote wasn't just about to start. an hour into the match and I just naturally assume it's 1AM EST
---

dang, didnt expect this to still be virtually tied 12 hours later
---

---

heh, I just loaded up creative's site for the first time this contest. I didn't even know it was back
---

Hat Kid looks like the designer saw Trucy Wright, made a chibi version of her then changed a few colors.
---

2B confirmed for SC6
---

Give me that 2B > Ness
---

I think it's kinda amazing how the scores for Squall and Zelda are almost equal. I have to imagine that this bodes better for Zelda (facing a bigger name) than it does for Squall, but we'll see.
---

Eh, something's off about Zelda/Ezio. That's a Link-beating performance most years. Same with Bowser/Gordon.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1749-chaos-division-round-1-samus-aran-vs-lara-croft

That was a Link-beating performance in 2004, too, and Cloud 60/40'd her in the end.

There's something weird when you put a relevant mainstream character up against an irrelevant mainstream character because this isn't the first time an oddly disproportionate blowout of this nature has happened.

Now Zelda might win in the end anyway. I'd just be careful about making too much of this performance.
---

tag
---

davidponte posted...

Give me that 2B > Ness

---

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7266

Phoenix does as expected and wins.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7267

Ike has no problem with Joel.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7268

Another expected result.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7269

Kirby wins big against Guile.

Crew Predictions: 29/32

Next Round Thoughts: A day that pretty much went as most people thought. Phoenix/Ike seemed close pre-contest, and neither one did anything to change that after their R1 matches. Kirby still has a free pass to Round 3.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 32
Moltar: 28
Leonhart: 27
Guest: 27
Kleenex: 27

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets the point for Phoenix, Hbthebattle gets the point for Ike, garetha200 gets the point for Charizard, and Moltar, Kleenex, and NowItsAngeTime get the point for Kirby.

transience: 10
Guest: 10 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (2), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot, Hbthebattle, NowItsAngeTime)
Moltar: 6
Leonhart: 4
Kleenex: 4
---

LeonhartFour posted...

There's something weird when you put a relevant mainstream character up against an irrelevant mainstream character because this isn't the first time an oddly disproportionate blowout of this nature has happened.

Theory: Characters stop performing transitively if they face stronger characters who outmatch them badly enough. For the amount of strength Hat Kid and Ezio have compared to their opponents, today's matches might as well be Squall/Not Squall and Zelda/Not Zelda; the eventual Squall/Zelda match won't tell us much about how a theoretical Hat Kid/Ezio match would go.
---

Nice job SuperNiceDog we both got both of our accuracy points

This is why we're 5th and 6th in oracle and these crew losers aren't

3 people getting full points for one match, I dunno about that

this isnt an unexpected result for Zelda.
---

transcience posted...

3 people getting full points for one match, I dunno about that

this isnt an unexpected result for Zelda.

Nah, after Bowser/Gordon I pretty much expected it. I wrote my analysis before that match happened.
---

oh I was talking about your post earlier saying something was off with Zelda/Ezio. this is the definition of a normal result, I think.
---

transience posted...

oh I was talking about your post earlier saying something was off with Zelda/Ezio. this is the definition of a normal result, I think.

well I meant in the sense that you shouldn't just take it at face value compared to previous years with Ezio
---

oh, yeah of course. I remember Tifa/Vyse all too well
---

I'm feeling a lot better about Squall after his performance against Hat Kid surpassed Zelda's performance on Ezio. With that said, the early vote for that match is going to be brutal and it's really going to put him in the hole. Better hope the Rise to Heaven bails him out.
---

Yeah, I'm thinking the beginning of that match is going to look like Cloud/Link matches of old.
---