Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hat Kid vs. Squall, a little late

So, Hat Kid is going to be crushed. But, by how much? Her game made a bit of a splash for itself, and a lot of FF games have been dipping. Im going to go with the Squall isnt getting 80% camp. Im not even sure hell triple.

Squall- 74%
Hat Kid-26%
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i don't really trust anything FF to get a blowout this contest, but hat kid is going to be the weakest cute indie thing we've seen so far. i'd definitely take Cuphead and Shantae to beat hat kid.

Garrus I think will be fine but that's mostly because Ramza is bad, and nothing this contest has indicated he will improve. Though I will admit Shepard falling off so hard K. Rool actually gives him a fight isn't impossible.
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Ranticoot posted...

i don't really trust anything FF to get a blowout this contest

so do you not consider a tripling a blowout?

because FF already has two of those
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Ranticoot posted...

Though I will admit Shepard falling off so hard K. Rool actually gives him a fight isn't impossible.

I think this is pretty close to impossible

K. Rool is gonna be pretty terrible
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LeonhartFour posted...

Ranticoot posted...

i don't really trust anything FF to get a blowout this contest

so do you not consider a tripling a blowout?

because FF already has two of those

i forget a lot

for some reason i can see squall not getting a tripling. yoshi couldn't and he gets anti-voted less.

though i hope he does good for that match with zelda.

[i took squall to triple in the oracle. man am i forgetful.]
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I mean Squall does get anti-voted so if he doesn't go super high I'm not going to be too concerned despite my fanboy percentage

I'm basically of the same mind as tran that he should at least be around a tripling, and not getting that would be cause for concern (but not outright PANIC depending on how close he gets).
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LeonhartFour posted...

Ranticoot posted...

Though I will admit Shepard falling off so hard K. Rool actually gives him a fight isn't impossible.

I think this is pretty close to impossible

K. Rool is gonna be pretty terrible

The smash fanbase treats him as one step below Ridley, and he hasnt had a series-killing game like Andromeda recently.
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He's going to be one step below Diddy, and Diddy's already pretty bad.

And K. Rool isn't in DKCR, so he's not getting any benefit from that like DK seems to have.

I mean I guess if Shepard drops as hard as Gordon seems to have it's possible but I don't think the fanbase holds Andromeda against him
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I don't like that Squall pic. I was expecting he'd get over 80% but now I'm not so sure.
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shoulda gotten this

https://imgur.com/3YHJTAt
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lordjers posted...

I don't like that Squall pic. I was expecting he'd get over 80% but now I'm not so sure.

If he doesn't, the pic won't be a reason. I like the classic FFVIII art the best, but his Dissidia art is fine (unlike Ramza).
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Nobody has broken 80% so far.

If anything I'd bet against it by default.

spooky96 posted...

Logience posted...

spooky96 posted...

Squall is not only he's the strongest FF character but he's actually the strongest character outside the N9, but 88.88 is really pushing it lol

No, thats Vincent.

Hahahahahaha no, Vincent would lose to things like MMX and Pikachu.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(5)Vincent_Valentine_vs_(2)Squall_Leonhart_2005

how could Squall possibly flip half a percent against Vincent over the last 13 years
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LeonhartFour posted...

how could Squall possibly flip half a percent against Vincent over the last 13 years

Who's to say that he has? Vincent also has a higher win percentage in his contest history. We can assume Squall has passed him up in that time, but there's definitely an argument to be made otherwise.

LeonhartFour posted...

lordjers posted...

I don't like that Squall pic. I was expecting he'd get over 80% but now I'm not so sure.

If he doesn't, the pic won't be a reason. I like the classic FFVIII art the best, but his Dissidia art is fine (unlike Ramza).

It could sway a few hundred of indifferent voters. Like "eh none of them looks badass but I'll vote for the kid at least he looks cute and happy". You'll know it if Squall locks at 79%.
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TooTooP3 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

how could Squall possibly flip half a percent against Vincent over the last 13 years

Who's to say that he has? Vincent also has a higher win percentage in his contest history. We can assume Squall has passed him up in that time, but there's definitely an argument to be made otherwise.

I mean if you totally ignore CBIX there's an argument to be made
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LeonhartFour posted...

TooTooP3 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

how could Squall possibly flip half a percent against Vincent over the last 13 years

Who's to say that he has? Vincent also has a higher win percentage in his contest history. We can assume Squall has passed him up in that time, but there's definitely an argument to be made otherwise.

I mean if you totally ignore CBIX there's an argument to be made

I mean they both lost to pokefear, so that doesn't change my opinion one way or another. Squall made it one round further because he had weaker matchups. They both placed third in their matches. Squall had the stronger second place finisher (Vivi>Phoenix), but Vincent had the stronger first place winner (Mewtwo>Trainer Red). Mewtwo went on to finish in front of Sephiroth and lost to Draven.

Ignore the Mewtwo match. I'm not concerned about that because of sabotage (and all of Mewtwo's matches after that are useless anyway. I hope you have Mewtwo winning the contest or coming darn close if you're taking that Draven result seriously). Vincent looked pretty bad in round 1 against KOS-MOS.

and Vincent losing to Phoenix at all, bad pic or not, is a pretty terrible result

Snake gets terrible sprite pics but still beats opponents below his weight class anyway because he's just that much stronger.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Ignore the Mewtwo match. I'm not concerned about that because of sabotage (and all of Mewtwo's matches after that are useless anyway. I hope you have Mewtwo winning the contest or coming darn close if you're taking that Draven result seriously). Vincent looked pretty bad in round 1 against KOS-MOS.

and Vincent losing to Phoenix at all, bad pic or not, is a pretty terrible result

Snake gets terrible sprite pics but still beats opponents below his weight class anyway because he's just that much stronger.

I didn't use Mewtwo's strength from last contest to determine how far he would go this contest. My point was that I don't fault Vincent for losing to him when Mewtwo was rallied throughout the whole contest. I don't really understand why we're using CBIX seriously when a majority of the contest was determined by 4chan and reddit rallies. Vincent looked weaker than his normal self in the last character battle, but so did Squall. Also out of curiosity, why bring up Snake? He's a noble nine member, so of course he can win matches with bad match pictures. He's miles above both Squall and Vincent.

TooTooP3 posted...

Vincent looked weaker than his normal self in the last character battle, but so did Squall.

not really, at least not to the extent Vincent did

TooTooP3 posted...

Also out of curiosity, why bring up Snake? He's a noble nine member, so of course he can win matches with bad match pictures. He's miles above both Squall and Vincent.

I'm pretty sure I explained why I brought up Snake.

If you're just that much stronger than the character, you can win even with a bad pic. The fact that Vincent could manage to lose to Phoenix means he might not be that much stronger than him even with a good pic.

I think you can handwave a lot of CBIX away, but not all of it. There's something to be gleaned from what we saw there.
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Squall would embarrass Vincent if they met again.
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I severely underestimated Golden Sun's popularity.

Or overestimated Trails'. Maybe both.
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Almost certainly overestimated Trails. Golden Sun has never been worth much here.
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Going back through Squall's contest history made me realize that Squall has never scored over 75% in any previous match. The closest he came to breaking 75% was 74.84% on Geno in 2005. I think that's going to change tonight, though I'm still pretty hesitant to predict Squall to break 80% because no one else has done it yet and anti-votes will hold him back too.
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Yeah, regardless of whether there's a blanket deboost for FF, Vincent definitely looks weaker. Also I'm still not sure if he was ever the #3 FFVII character. I would argue that not even his 2007 victory over Crono--which, I remind you, came in a poll with two other characters largely associated with the SNES (probably; you could argue that Samus's strength is based more on Smash than on her own games but Super Metroid is still the strongest game in her series)--is as impressive as what Tifa was able to do in a 1v1, which is to say, break 49.5% on Samus. You've also got a bunch of direct comparisons involving SFF matches, but I don't even necessarily take stock in those (I'm honestly not even remotely surprised that Sephiroth SFFs Vincent harder than Tifa, because Vincent is an edgy guy in dark clothing just like Sephiroth and Tifa is a hot chick.)
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Lopen posted...

Almost certainly overestimated Trails. Golden Sun has never been worth much here.

Replace Isaac in this match with Lloyd. Would you have changed your prediction?
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Yes because Lloyd has won a match before.

EDIT: Apparently Isaac beat Layton once. Oops. Well whatever I still count that for a lot less than beating Wesker. Also Tales of Symphonia did okay for itself in the games contests.
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Yeah, 80% is just hard to hit these days.

The only games that hit that mark in 2015 were CT (twice), FFVII, Mario 3, Mario 64 (just barely against MK8, to boot), OoT, and LttP, games we would consider top ten easily for this site.
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LusterSoldier posted...

Going back through Squall's contest history made me realize that Squall has never scored over 75% in any previous match. The closest he came to breaking 75% was 74.84% on Geno in 2005. I think that's going to change tonight, though I'm still pretty hesitant to predict Squall to break 80% because no one else has done it yet and anti-votes will hold him back too.

I feel like Squall gets antivoted even more than Sora and Sora can't even get 70% on Ryo Hazuki. Not sure where the confidence of Squall breaking 80% comes from.
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Lopen posted...

Yes because Lloyd has won a match before.

Isaac has too!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3759-heart-division-round-1-isaac-vs-layton
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squexa posted...

I feel like Squall gets antivoted even more than Sora and Sora can't even get 70% on Ryo Hazuki. Not sure where the confidence of Squall breaking 80% comes from.

Squall is stronger than Sora and Hat Kid is (probably) weaker than Ryo.

FFVII is the most anti-voted thing on this site, and Cloud and Seph could still put up huge numbers anyway because they were strong enough despite it.
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Ha, yeah, I just saw that.

Still though I think Lloyd is decently stronger than Isaac. Just feel like Tales has shown better strength over the years. Not by a lot or anything mind you-- Lloyd is high end fodder or just above the line at best.
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Golden Sun did pretty decent in GotD, too!

never forget Golden Sun > San Andreas

I mean I don't necessarily disagree with you, but Isaac is high fodder at worst and Estelle was never gonna be that.
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If Aya Brea in the year 2018 can be high end fodder anyone can be imo.
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Lopen posted...

Almost certainly overestimated Trails. Golden Sun has never been worth much here.

No, I'm almost certain that in my case, it was underestimating Golden Sun. I used matches like this:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(7)Valkyria_Chronicles_vs_(10)Disgaea:_Hour_of_Darkness_2010

And this:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(7)Skies_of_Arcadia_vs_(10)Baldur%27s_Gate_II:_Shadows_of_Amn_2010

And there are other examples too, but despite being Games Contest matches those probably fit the best. Niche RPGs on both sides, but the first option is also the one with more female in the pic. Seedings even matched this one.

The thing is, you're actually completely wrong about Golden Sun never being worth much here. Isaac's W-L record isn't so great because he's frequently been fed to elites early... he's lost to Pokmon twice, which is totally understandable because he's a GBA character and Pokmon is Nintendo's flagship handheld franchise, and he lost to Noble Niners twice. Really, the only thing that's especially ugly is losing to post-2007 L-Block. And other Golden Sun characters? Felix's lone appearance saw him get over 47% on Master Chief at a time when that still meant something. The game itself? Easily surpassed a Round 1 doubling in GotD and went on to upset San Andreas in Round 2 before avoiding a doubling at the hands of FFX in Round 3.

...Yeah, I feel like I massively underestimated Golden Sun.
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Lopen posted...

If Aya Brea in the year 2018 can be high end fodder anyone can be imo.

maybe if Trails were made by Square

or if it were the only notable RPG on its platform
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Lopen posted...

Ha, yeah, I just saw that.

Still though I think Lloyd is decently stronger than Isaac. Just feel like Tales has shown better strength over the years. Not by a lot or anything mind you-- Lloyd is high end fodder or just above the line at best.

Again, respectfully disagree. Isaac has had the misfortune of running into Noble Niners in Round 1 twice and Pokmon (which given that all of his games are for handhelds is especially damaging!) two other times. Felix getting 47% on Chief in 2004 and the game performing well in GotD (in all three rounds!) also help its case.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Felix's lone appearance saw him get over 47% on Master Chief at a time when that still meant something.

I'm of the feeling that 2003 Chief is arguably the weakest we've ever seen Chief aside from possibly his most recent contest, and that you can't actually trust Chief's x-stat value for much in 03. Anti voting just made him too swingy then. 03 X-Box hate was so seething that you probably had Chief's absolute highest possible win margin at something like 60%. Even something like Tanner I could see scoring high 30s on him.
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I'm still kind of amazed we never bothered getting Felix back in after that.
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Golden Sun vs Tales of Symphonia is a coinflip match. They did about the same in the Games Contests they've been in. Golden Sun's problem is getting into the contests in the first place - it missed 2015 and was removed from the bracket by B8 back in 2008, which I will never let this place live down.
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Round 1 Metal Sonic vs. The Boss

Moltars Analysis

hey zen dont read this thx

Metal Sonic is here because of a concentrated board rally. This is a match where seeding does not equal strength. We know The Boss has decent strength, and while Metal Sonic is unknown, its unlikely that itll be anything more than fodder.

B-b-b-b-but Moltar! You say, Metal Sonic has Sonic in the name, itll get votes based off that!

Well, Metal Sonic could act as a Sonic proxy, but I wouldnt bank on it. Even Shadow cant get away with that these days. Metal Sonic would have to at least be as strong as Knuckles on his own to compete here, and I have a hard time seeing Sonic fans caring about it that much.

Moltars Bracket: The Boss

Moltars Prediction: The Boss 60%

transiences Analysis

......man. What do you even do here?

I took The Boss in my bracket and never looked back. I just didn't really think about it. Metal Sonic? This isn't Mega Man X. This is more like a Dark Samus or something. There's no contest precedent for this, really, at least not in my recent memory.

But The Boss is also going to do poorly because Metal Gear has taken some real shots these last 5 years. Big Boss showed that one loud and clear. I guess this comes down to, do people recognize The Boss as a notable character? I kinda see Metal Sonic like I see Pac-Man. It'll beat garbage and get stomped by anyone with a real fanbase. I'll go with The Boss with very low confidence. Thankfully this website is small enough now to differentiate, otherwise Shadow would have whomped Ness.

transience's prediction: The Boss with 55.51%

Leonharts Analysis

Congrats to Zen for successfully rallying Metal Sonic into the contest. That being said, I think hes gonna get killed. I dont think the average Sonic fan cares about him at all. Hes not much more than a boss fight you encounter in a few of the games. The only really popular Sonic game he even appears in is Sonic 3 & Knuckles. Well, hes in Sonic Mania, too, but Im not expecting that to do a ton for him (His boss fight there is kinda annoying, for one thing. Ive seen a lot of people complain about it). I think maybe hardcore Sonic fans might like the guy a little, but I dont think GameFAQs is a haven for hardcore Sonic fans.

On the other hand, people really care about The Boss. Shes not a super popular character in these contests, but shes definitely someone people are passionate about. Those who like her tend to really like her a lot. Shes attached to a more popular series and a more popular game. Metal Gear Solid 3 is the most popular game in the series now here, too, which I think helps The Boss out. She always tends to do better than people expect, so Im going pretty high here.

Leonharts Vote: The Boss

Leonharts Prediction: The Boss with 63.46%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Hello Zen.

I have no idea how to value Metal Sonic, so Im not really going to try. If I had to guess, hes probably the weakest Sonic entrant weve ever seen aside from maybe Amy Rose, and that should be enough for The Boss to win.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Boss with 57%

Guests Analysis - ZenOfThunder

The bracket dropped when I was driving home from work. It had been a long day, and I was exhausted. When I got home I walked past the Shadow the Hedgehog shrine in my bedroom to my girlfriend. She was typing something intensely on her computer. I gave her a kiss on the cheek and asked how her day was. Alright, she said, without taking a break from what she was working on.

I was pretty ripe from working in a hot kitchen all day, and I was looking forward to a long shower. I stripped all the way down and threw my clothes in the hamper, then made my way back to our joint desk to check my email.

I opened up my laptop. Chrome loaded up my homepage, Board 8. Immediately I noticed a new sticky from Allen. Without even reading the title, I knew what it was.

OH FUCK, THE BRACKET DROPPED! I yelled across our double-sided desk to my girlfriend. She didnt really respond much, just kept typing.

I was hunched over the desk and my chair wasnt nearby, so I dropped down to one knee. Buck naked. The first thing I did once the bracket loaded was hit CTRL+F. I typed in M-e-y-a-l, and when nothing came up my heart sank. I looked to the search box and realized my error. I erased the typo and carefully typed out M-e-t-a-l.

A match! Metal Sonic is a five seed! I yelled across our double-sided desk to my girlfriend. I got Metal Sonic a FIVE SEED!

She didnt really respond much, just kept typing.

In that split-second, completely naked and on one knee, I was the happiest I had been in months. A five seed meant Metal Sonic had a real shot at winning. My eyes wandered down to his opponent, mind raced with possibilities. Who was Metal Sonic going to thrash in Round 1? Was it Estelle Bright? Maybe Metal Man? Some goober from Tales?

My eyes settled on the reality. I took a long hard look at the twelve seed resting below Metal Sonic. My heart sank. The Joy I had felt was gone, a void of Sorrow forming in its place.

FUCK! I yelled across our double-sided desk to my girlfriend. This time, she stopped typing.

What? What? she asked, slightly frustrated with her nerd-ass boyfriends dumb hobbies.

Hes against The Boss! The Fucking BOSS! All the happiness I had felt until that point completely drained from my face. I looked across the desk, searching for comfort.

My girlfriend cocked her head. Who?

Exactly.

Zens Prediction: Metal Sonic - 50.28%

ps my girlfriend is very disappointed that you all didnt vote for Shadow the Hedgehog, she wants me to express that here

Crew Consensus: The true Boss is not Metal Sonic
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MasterMoltar posted...

The only really popular Sonic game he even appears in is Sonic 3 & Knuckles.

Um, that's not Metal Sonic. Is it really that hard to tell which metal Sonics are Metal Sonic?
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Hello, I want to clarify that I really do NOT think Metal Sonic will win and I have The Boss in my bracket. I also do not think Metal Sonic has a very high ceiling of strength. To be honest, I just think Metal Sonic is dope af and I wanted to make a thousand match pics for him.

Oh wait.

Thanks, Bacon.
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give us one anyway

That guest write-up is the best one I'll ever see in my life
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what an epic analysis post from Zen. He should get paid the big bucks for his service to these contests.

GOGOG metal sonic
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Xeybozn posted...

Um, that's not Metal Sonic. Is it really that hard to tell which metal Sonics are Metal Sonic?

I mean I know the one at the end of Sonic 2 is different

the one in S3&K looks pretty similar to me

but yeah if that's not even this Metal Sonic then he's super boned

I should bump up my prediction by like 5%
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LeonhartFour posted...

squexa posted...

I feel like Squall gets antivoted even more than Sora and Sora can't even get 70% on Ryo Hazuki. Not sure where the confidence of Squall breaking 80% comes from.

Squall is stronger than Sora and Hat Kid is (probably) weaker than Ryo.

FFVII is the most anti-voted thing on this site, and Cloud and Seph could still put up huge numbers anyway because they were strong enough despite it.

Fair enough. We'll see how it goes. I'll still skeptical Squall of all people can blow someone out this badly but I've never heard of Hat Kid before so I have no idea how strong she is.
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