Board 8 > College Football Ladder Contest Week 9: Anti-purge for the opposite reason

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yes, I am capable of actually getting the topic up in time for Sun Belt Tuesdays. Occasionally. Speaking of which...an expanded marquee is super tempting because it's so rare that I'd get a chance to put the Sun Belt of all conferences on the marquee (well, I technically could've opted to put Arkansas State on the marquee when they faced Alabama, but I considered that too ridiculous and took the alternate option) and Appalachian State-Georgia Southern doesn't quite make the top five, though it does meet the criteria for consideration, but there actually only are nine games that "merit consideration" so doubling the marquee would require me to just pick something out of thin air.

Also, as stated, I took out the arbitrary requirement in level 6. It's still a very tough level to pass, as was pointed out to me, but at least you've got freedom to mix and match!

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 3: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 4: First! Pick a winless team to get their first win or an undefeated team to suffer their first loss. If you are predicting a favorite to win, they must also cover the spread (a push is sufficient). You may also select "none" if you think that every game between two winless or two undefeated teams will result in the favorite winning but failing to cover the spread and that no other teams will get their first win or suffer their first loss. Also, for this level, only the team that you are predicting will lose must be from the FBS.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one team and move the line 7 points to your disadvantage.

Level 6: Triple points pleaser. Pick either three over/unders and move the lines on each 5 points to your disadvantage. 3 out of 3 needed to pass.

Level 6:
jcgamer107
Paratroopa1
turbopuns2

Level 5:
KCF0107
ShatteredElysium
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 4:

Level 3:
kevwaffles
5tarscream

Level 2:
Jakyl25

Level 1:
baubeta
Eddv
SmartMuffin

Marquee Games:
Florida (+7) vs. Georgia (O/U 51.5) (Jacksonville, FL)
Iowa (+5.5) @ Penn State (O/U 53)
South Florida (+7.5) @ Houston (O/U 72.5)
Washington State (+3) @ Stanford (O/U 56)
Texas A&M (+2.5) @ Mississippi State (O/U 44)

Those over/unders aren't terribly stable yet, because of how early I'm putting up the topic this week. Also, in a way it's lucky that no one's actually on Level 4 because the "favorites must also cover" clause could easily come into play with that line locked on the marquee.
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Man, I forgot how tough the pleaser level is. And there may be nothing more painful than seeing an underdog you think stands a chance be listed at "+7.5" because since a push isn't sufficient and there are no ties in this sport, +8 is functionally identical to +6.5 on this level. Though I did still end up going with a 7-point underdog.

Level 5: Kentucky (PK) @ Missouri
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L3:
Georgia (-1)
West Virginia (-7.5)
Texas (+3)
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Level 5 (already teased)
Boise St. at Air Force (+3.5)
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Bump
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Bump
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Man, I forgot how tough the pleaser level is. And there may be nothing more painful than seeing an underdog you think stands a chance be listed at "+7.5" because since a push isn't sufficient and there are no ties in this sport, +8 is functionally identical to +6.5 on this level. Though I did still end up going with a 7-point underdog.

Level 5: Kentucky (PK) @ Missouri

I have always been of the opinion that an OT game should count as a tie for the purposes of spread betting

Ugh, here goes. I think the odds of passing this level are around 5-10% but let's give it a try.

Level 6:

Clemson/Florida State OVER 54.5
Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 47.5
Washington State/Stanford UNDER 51

I'm abusing your marquee rule pretty hard for Wazzu/Stanford. This line has moved down from your 56 to 53.5, and I agree with this move - I think that coming off an emotional win at home over Oregon the Cougs are in for a letdown game here and games at Stanford just have a tendency to be ugly, so that's going to result in a bizarrely low scoring output. Wouldn't be surprised if this is just like an ugly ass 20-7 game or something. (I think Stanford is going to win this a week after I took Wazzu in the pleaser, by the way)

As for the others, idk. Wisconsin's games are a lot more high scoring this year than I'm used to but I am still conditioned to believe that Wisconsin traveling into Northwestern is going to result in some super boring shit that absolutely nobody wants to watch. As for Clemson I think there's a couple different ways this goes over; either Clemson just goes ahead and scores like 48 by themselves, or it turns out that people are actually way over optimstic about Clemson's defense (which has played extremely well this season) and this turns into a shootout for them on the road. The 49.5 line seemed very low to me.

I know absolutely nothing about betting over/unders, so this is a fucking crapshoot.

Level 6

Florida/Georgia OVER 56.5
Washington State @ Stanford UNDER 51
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State OVER 49

uhhhhhh

Level 6
Iowa @ Penn State UNDER 48
South Florida @ Houston OVER 77.5
Clemson @ Florida St OVER 54.5

I have no idea really
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Exactly 48 points scored in the Wisconsin/Northwestern game. Barf.

I was right about that Clemson/FSU game being too low a line though

jcgamer107 posted...

Level 6
Iowa @ Penn State UNDER 48
South Florida @ Houston OVER 77.5
Clemson @ Florida St OVER 54.5

Clemson/FSU passed. South Florida/Houston is at 49 at halftime, that's on pace, but Iowa/Penn St is at 34, no way that hits the under. rip.
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Son of a bitch. Florida/Georgia hit the over but not +5.

I blame these Big Ten teams for not playing low-scoring games in inclement weather like they're supposed to
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Level 5: Kentucky (PK) @ Missouri

What a pick!

Kentucky wins the SEC east if they upset Georgia.

What is life.

2 blow outs and then Texas get trashed. I always get 2/3.
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turbopuns2 posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Level 5: Kentucky (PK) @ Missouri

What a pick!

Thanks, I just came back here because I checked the scoreboard again after having previously seen it fairly late and having a SFII 2K4 reaction. "Wait, Kentucky WON?!"

And then going further into play-by-play and recap and realizing that they were literally still trailing when the clock hit zero and won it on an untimed down...I cannot believe I got that win. What a miracle.
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Man, who gives up a 28 point lead to the Beavers?

Colorado's coach should be fired. Out of a cannon. Into a brick wall.
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Not that it matters, but man I called that Stanford/Wazzu game wrong. First really bad take of the season

Wait Texas came back and I think I got the push and 2 wins
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Wow, Oklahoma State actually beat Texas. I've been on the "OK State might not even make a bowl game" train for weeks now, so it was a struggle to even keep the Longhorns in my top 25 even though I had them in my top 10 last week.

Of course, 3 of my top 5 were idle this week so no real change there. Texas A&M actually takes the worst tumble simply because this was their third loss and I'd previously been justifying ranking them far higher than any 2-loss team has any right to be this early in the year simply because said losses were to undefeated Clemson and Alabama, the former being a close game and the latter being a game against Alabama. Iowa somehow manages to rise 1 spot after losing, because seven of the ten teams I had ranked 16-25 lost (out of a possible nine since two of them were playing each other), so they were #19 and they lost close to #14, heck it, I'm not bringing in someone who wasn't even on my radar last week and putting them above Iowa. Obviously they'd have dropped further if others in their range hadn't lost as well, or had even had off-weeks.

Biggest riser is Utah. On what I thought was my finalized Top 25 for last week, I'd had the Utes at #25, but when looking at it to gauge my "poll inertia" for this week, I found that I'd somehow missed Oklahoma. Checking two weeks' ago's poll showed me where to slot them, and everyone else slid down, which meant sliding "out" for Utah. One blowout over a struggling team later, to wind up alone in front of the Pac-12 South clusterfuck, and they're #15. Meanwhile, the ACC has a little support for Clemson, and it's...Virginia and Syracuse? Believe it. And even the MWC, C-USA, and Sun Belt are getting in on the fun! Georgia Southern upset Appalachian State this week and has still not lost to anyone other than Clemson, while UAB...may be one for us Level 6'ers to watch. Since conference play began, they've averaged just 7 points allowed per game, including two shutouts; they also shut out a non-conference opponent to run their season total to 3. I'm hoping that the "natural lower limit of vegas lines" can get an over/under that's easy for them to get under.
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I think Im level 4 which means either picking against Alabama, Clemson or Notre Dame or picking I think UTEP to win?

I guess bama might lose to LSU but I doubt it. If Im right I guess Ill pick UTEP to beat Rice. Take that as my pick and let you know if I change.
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Well, I don't have to worry about barely missing the over on Florida/Georgia, because I went 0-3 this week. The other two weren't even close.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

This is a de facto SEC semifinal game...in Lexington, KY.

I'll be tailgating!

5tarscream posted...

Wait Texas came back and I think I got the push and 2 wins

yep, did exactly enough, nice
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I think at most one person will pass level 6 the rest of the season honestly

Bump
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Up again.
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