Board 8 > College Football Ladder Contest 2018: Week 8: Anti-purge edition

(+) Yeah! (+)

You knew it'd happen eventually. It does at least once every year. I at least managed to get the capture of the opening post, but only because I so rarely go on the computer that I post this from--which means the only person's picks for last week that I have access to are my own. I'm posting it exactly as it was rather than putting in the fact that I actually finally advanced last week. I have no idea if Level 6 is necessary, so I'm posting it. Not that I really planned out what it would be, so it'll probably be awful.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 3: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 4: First! Pick a winless team to get their first win or an undefeated team to suffer their first loss. If you are predicting a favorite to win, they must also cover the spread (a push is sufficient). You may also select "none" if you think that every game between two winless or two undefeated teams will result in the favorite winning but failing to cover the spread and that no other teams will get their first win or suffer their first loss. Also, for this level, only the team that you are predicting will lose must be from the FBS.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one team and move the line 7 points to your disadvantage.

Level 6: Triple points pleaser. Pick either three overs or three unders and move the lines on each 5 points to your disadvantage. 3 out of 3 needed to pass.

Level 5:
turbopuns2
jcgamer107

Level 4:
KCF0107
Paratroopa1
ShatteredElysium

Level 3:
kevwaffles
5tarscream
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 2:
Jakyl25

Level 1:
baubeta
Eddv
SmartMuffin

Marquee Games:
Michigan (-7) @ Michigan State (O/U 40.5)
Oregon (+3) @ Washington State (O/U 68)
Colorado (+17.5) @ Washington (O/U 50)
NC State (+17.5) @ Clemson (O/U 57.5)
Mississippi State (+6.5) @ LSU (O/U 45.5)
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I honestly did try to do this yesterday (last week's had already purged by then). Computer wouldn't register existence of Internet access.
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yaayy

I picked Michigan -14.5 last week for Level 5 so i am indeed on Level 6
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Nobody's going to pass level 6

Yeah, I know that I passed level 4, and I am pretty sure that Shattered and Para chose Colorado to lose. I couldn't tell you about anyone else.

Level 5 (line already teased):
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State (-4)

Back to the random games!
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I'm on level 5. I had USC over Colorado last week

Edit: And yeah anybody passing level 6 is just going to be dumb luck I think

Well, I'm a man of my word, so...

Level 5:

Washington State (-10)

Yeah, I was kind of expecting Oregon to be favored by 1 or 2 points here, so I'm not happy about taking this on Washington State -3, but I said I was gonna do it, so I'm gonna do it. I think this game is going to be a hilarious drubbing of the Ducks. They've only played one game on the road, and it was at Cal. They were lucky to beat Washington. Wazzu has been quietly quite good and I think this should be a coming out party for Gardner Minshew against an Oregon defense that isn't really anything. Cougs 41-20. Calling it.

Level 5
Oregon -4

dueling pleasers

we got dueling pleasers, y'all!

I was tempted to take NC State so I may yet change my mind

Level 6
Oregon/Washington UNDER 63
UConn/USF UNDER 64
Bowling Green/Ohio UNDER 64.5
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Level 4:

Nebraska (-5) to defeat Minnesota

It's kind of tempting to just say Clemson will cover the spread against NC State, but I'm not feeling it.
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Guess I should make some picks. Don't feel like bothering to look shit up, so marquee games it is.

L3:
NC State (+23.5) @ Clemson
Michigan (-1) @ Michigan State
LSU (-0.5) vs Mississippi State
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Paratroopa1 posted...

Nobody's going to pass level 6

Yeah, I just realized that there's no good reason to force all three to be the same type if it's not a combined score type of level like the one I had last year. I'll change it next week.
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Level 5
Mississippi State (+13.5) @ LSU

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Paratroopa1 posted...

Nobody's going to pass level 6

Yeah, I just realized that there's no good reason to force all three to be the same type if it's not a combined score type of level like the one I had last year. I'll change it next week.

It's not even that, it's that picking three O/Us on its own is a 12.5% chance and then you have to please all three lines, I wouldn't give better than 5% odds of passing

Hahaha wow I'm so glad I'm actually on Level 4 right now. Last week, when Florida was hopelessly behind and I was certain that I was going to be stuck on Level 3 for another week, I vowed to just pick against Rutgers this week because no matter how lopsided the line was, they seemed to exceed expectations for misery. And now they're actually ahead late in the first half? I'm very confused and a little scared.
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Why do I bother?
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Dang, my alternate pick would've been a success. Temple actually beat Cincy.
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jcgamer107 posted...

Oregon/Washington UNDER 63

That's supposed to say Washington St, but Bowling Green/Ohio's going over anyway
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Oh, nevermind, Michigan stopped being ass.

NC State isn't starting out promising, but I've got some leeway there.
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Wait Bowling Green/Ohio finished at 63, lol I'm alive
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Chose the wrong team in my random game
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Paratroopa1 posted...

Well, I'm a man of my word, so...

Level 5:

Washington State (-10)

Yeah, I was kind of expecting Oregon to be favored by 1 or 2 points here, so I'm not happy about taking this on Washington State -3, but I said I was gonna do it, so I'm gonna do it. I think this game is going to be a hilarious drubbing of the Ducks. They've only played one game on the road, and it was at Cal. They were lucky to beat Washington. Wazzu has been quietly quite good and I think this should be a coming out party for Gardner Minshew against an Oregon defense that isn't really anything. Cougs 41-20. Calling it.

Fantastic call. I have watched neither team this year so was going purely off numbers.

holy shit lol

alright time to coug it

cougs are totally starting to coug this

I suddenly need to hope that the cougs have another TD in them this late in the game after getting fucking destroyed all second half

this should have been easy

Could be worse. I'm a buckeye and we are getting murdered by Purdue of all people. We have shot ourselves in the foot all night long but even without that we would still be losing

It's been a good day to be a Michigan fan and a Detroit sports fan in general
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cougs leading 34-20, getting scarily close to my 41-20 predix

Okay, looks like all three of my top picks would've succeeded. (Clemson to cover against NC State, Temple to beat Cincy, and the pick I actually made).

Also Purdue over Ohio State looks like it's going to happen. As a Big Ten guy, I have mixed feelings about this. Hopefully Michigan can just win out and get to the playoff as a one-loss team.
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oh my god the mad men fucking did it

Paratroopa1 posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Paratroopa1 posted...

Nobody's going to pass level 6

Yeah, I just realized that there's no good reason to force all three to be the same type if it's not a combined score type of level like the one I had last year. I'll change it next week.

It's not even that, it's that picking three O/Us on its own is a 12.5% chance and then you have to please all three lines, I wouldn't give better than 5% odds of passing

Yeah, good point. Well, this is usually when I start getting weird, because compare it to the NFL Ladder Contest, they don't even start working the spread in for a number of levels. We've always started with spread, likely because SmartMuffin originated this (well, also because in the NFL, a double-digit line of any kind is considered very large.)

Today's twin 23-0 scores almost made me want to do a shutout-based level, but I feel like that would honestly be even harder than that level that I've yet to use, the one that's reserved for if I ever need a Level 9 (and leads into a Level 10). So I'd either have to downgrade those levels, or "pick a team to not score" would have to be a Level 11.

Though given how tough I made Level 6, maybe I can afford to downgrade my planned Level 9 to an 8 or a 7. ...No I can't, that's obviously the alcohol talking.
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jcgamer107 posted...

Level 6
Oregon/Washington St UNDER 63
UConn/USF UNDER 64
Bowling Green/Ohio UNDER 64.5

wooowww I got 2 out of 3. UConn/USF went to 68. fuck.

ninkendo posted...

It's been a good day to be a Michigan fan and a Detroit sports fan in general

Yes

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Hopefully Michigan can just win out and get to the playoff as a one-loss team.

Yes
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what's really hilarious about this is that washington state is going to lose to stanford next week

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Okay, looks like all three of my top picks would've succeeded. (Clemson to cover against NC State, Temple to beat Cincy, and the pick I actually made).

Also Purdue over Ohio State looks like it's going to happen. As a Big Ten guy, I have mixed feelings about this. Hopefully Michigan can just win out and get to the playoff as a one-loss team.

I think it's very possible the Big Ten just isn't any good this year.

Technically we could still win out and make it but this is just such a bad loss and there's no big wins on the schedule either with Penn State losing after we played them. Even beating Michigan could be argued as they lost to Notre dame before Notre dame got hot and then the big ten not being good

I can't believe I'm saying it but things might actually open up for UCF

Ohio State ate chicken before the game

It's a nervous bird
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ninkendo posted...

Ohio State ate chicken before the game

It's a nervous bird

lmao
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https://twitter.com/sportingnews/status/1053846791743913986

Ohio St forgot how to tackle lolol
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Sometimes I regret being gracious and not talking smack on other teams. Like today is very tame but it seems whenever anything ever goes badly for Ohio State people always immediately put the boot in despite me never doing the same for other teams, even after rivalry victories.

ShatteredElysium posted...

Sometimes I regret being gracious and not talking smack on other teams. Like today is very tame but it seems whenever anything ever goes badly for Ohio State people always immediately put the boot in despite me never doing the same for other teams, even after rivalry victories.

I'm a mild-mannered Seahawks fan, I have absolutely no idea what to tell you, this is a symptom of success

Hey I only get to dump on Ohio State like once a decade give me my time

Especially since there's no guarantee Michigan will even beat them later in the season anyway
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ninkendo posted...

Hey I only get to dump on Ohio State like once a decade give me my time

exactly lol. they always beat us so when they get blown out by Purdue, I'm gonna enjoy it.
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LSU got it done for me, nice.

ShatteredElysium posted...

Sometimes I regret being gracious and not talking smack on other teams. Like today is very tame but it seems whenever anything ever goes badly for Ohio State people always immediately put the boot in despite me never doing the same for other teams, even after rivalry victories.

also it's not meant to be directed at you, I just root against Ohio St generally. I've seen people shit on Michigan all the time.
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bump
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