Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 195: Revenge of the Clintons

(+) Yeah! (+)

StartTheMachine posted...

Oh holy shit again. Those women that were all right behind Kavanaugh during his hearing were placed their on purpose for optics. They were all women that he had worked with.

That backfired.

Most of them honestly looked like they were faking it.

Whatever was happening on his wife's face was undoubtedly the most unquestioningly honest part of his hearing. Still not sold it was the "divorce look" people are making it out to be but she was very clearly troubled and trying to reconcile ford's testimony. Her husband may not have watched it but she almost certainly did.

Edit: not so much faking it as overselling it to the point it looked unnatural
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StealThisSheen posted...

I don't think you're aware how much WV is for Trump and how desperately Manchin is trying to get the Trumper vote right now

I don't think you're aware how ahead he is in that race right now. He is by far the safest of the red-state Democrats. dude is up by an average of 9 points per 538.

He can endure voting against Kavanaugh.
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xp1337 posted...

StealThisSheen posted...

I don't think you're aware how much WV is for Trump and how desperately Manchin is trying to get the Trumper vote right now

I don't think you're aware how ahead he is in that race right now. He is by far the safest of the red-state Democrats. dude is up by an average of 9 points per 538.

He can endure voting against Kavanaugh.

Don't get me wrong. He doesn't need it

But he very much thinks he does. I'm trying to find some local ads for you, because Manchin is shook right now. Some ads came out with some Trump quote/sound bit of "Joe Manchin is bad for West Virginia," and Manchin has gone into panic mode and literally all of his campaign ads right now are trying to prove how much he'll lick Trump's nuts.

That worries me.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Personally I don't think he should be confirmed but also not because he is conservative. We're getting one of those anyway. Like sephyg acts like this is a victory when really this is horrific for the GOP if he is confirmed. The democrats will use this to absolutely, without a doubt, murder the GOP for years.

^

This whole thing makes no sense to me. They control the senate. They're going to control the senate. Even if they somehow lose it, the democrats keeping it open for 2.5 years is political suicide and they wouldn't win the presidency in 2020.

They're going to get that seat no matter what, and this is the worst possible optics for them at this point. I just don't understand why they're doing it this way because I feel like this is going to lose them independents and moderates in the upcoming midterms.

I mean it goes back to that whole thing where people desperately fear happening to them what they or the group they're a part of have historically done to others. Like obstructing a supreme court nomination that is rightfully the oppositions to make.
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Shaduln posted...

I was going to say I didn't get why the whole "let's just postpone and do an investigation" was getting push back, but oh yeah, midterms.

Yeah, literally that was how Rs tried to approach Dr Ford.

They realized that she was way too credible, that she obviously had been assaulted given that she insisted on her house having a second door way back in 2012 due to this specific childhood trauma.

So their attack (during the hearing) was "Dr Ford is pure and innocent and honest (except she must have been confused on her attacker). But evil democratic party knew about her before we did and did not tell us because they wanted to delay the confirmation hearings until midterms".

Which...yeah, both parties have been playing politics with the length of the hearings; Rs have been doing as much as possible to try to push Kavanaugh through quickly. They may very well be right that Democrats did not share info about Dr Ford as early as they should have in an unbiased setting. (Dr Ford wanted to let president Trump know to not pick Kavanaugh before he had even chosen his candidate, so yeah, republicans may even have a point here that if the Democratic Party had gotten this info to Trump immediately, Trump might have picked a different candidate, and Dr Ford would not have needed to break anonymity, receive multiple death threats, and move houses twice).

It's an interesting attack angle, and honestly I think Republicans have a good point. But I don't really know who it's going to sway in terms of the ultimate outcome. "You should have let us known earlier that this was a bad candidate, all this emotional trauma today is the Dem's fault" is...probably not going to convince very many people that Kavinaugh should be on the supreme court. (Even though...yeah, probably most of the public emotional trauma today was made worse by Dems slow-rolling this).
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StealThisSheen posted...

That worries me.

that's why i'm saying you all need to have more faith

He'll back Trump rhetorically on a ton of things, but I really don't think Kavanaugh will be one of them. This is different.

I'm totally willing to eat my words, admit I was wrong, and apologize if Manchin acts contrary to what I'm saying here.
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metroid composite posted...

if the Democratic Party had gotten this info to Trump immediately, Trump might have picked a different candidate

lmao

Trump's choosing Kavanaugh is based on his views on presidential power. We already know that McConnell warned him that Kavanaugh would be the hardest one to get confirmed. If Feinstein got the message to Trump it wouldn't have changed his mind.
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Has mcconnel ever explained why he warned trump about kavanaugh like that?

Also, re: metroid composite's point. The Republicans didn't need to convince anyone today. All they had to do was provide reasonable deniability to the few swing vote senators on this issue. And they probably achieved that, because it was incredibly easy to do. Making it out like the democrats caused all this probably was, as sephy puts it, the perfect defense in all honesty.
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pxlated posted...

Has mcconnel ever explained why he warned trump about kavanaugh like that?

Also, re: metroid composite's point. The Republicans didn't need to convince anyone today. All they had to do was provide reasonable deniability to the few swing vote senators on this issue. And they probably achieved that, because it was incredibly easy to do. Making it out like the democrats caused all this probably was, as sephy puts it, the perfect defense in all honesty.

Afaik it was the hundreds of thousands (or whatever) of pages of documents. I dont know that he was thinking of a specific thing, just that that many docs existing posed a serious risk.

(Also with Kavanaugh being a long time political operative he was never going to be super sympathetic to swing voters).
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xp1337 posted...

Postponing at any real length would run them into the midterms, yes. But if the nomination falls through I fully expect them to get a different nominee (Odds on Barrett) in regardless of the midterms or their result. So like Chris is saying, I am operating under the assumption that a conservative justice is seated regardless of the outcome of the Kavanaugh vote.

Why do they care?

Thats the thing: If their new nominee takes until midterms, that A) motivates Republican turnout and B) is completely irrelevant to if they get blown out, as there will still be 2 more months AFTER the elections before the new Congress starts.

They are sticking with Kavanaugh and reenforcing their image as the party who doesnt care about women for no benefit at all.
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pxlated posted...

Has mcconnel ever explained why he warned trump about kavanaugh like that?

Well, reporting claims he was worried that Kavanaugh's long paper trail and millions of documents would take forever to review and that his time under Bush 43 and his role on Starr's team would lead to re-litigation of Bush era issues and the like.
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honestly, the only hope against this nomination is that the last 4(?) dems to question him managed to pretty well refute the R's only talking points at the hearing and make the outright refusal to even entertain the idea of an investigation looks pretty silly.

but i wouldn't hold my breath
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xp1337 posted...

pxlated posted...

Has mcconnel ever explained why he warned trump about kavanaugh like that?

Well, reporting claims he was worried that Kavanaugh's long paper trail and millions of documents would take forever to review and that his time under Bush 43 and his role on Starr's team would lead to re-litigation of Bush era issues and the like.

ah, okay. makes sense
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Because short term political losses is irrelevant to a long term deeply conservative Supreme Court which will uphold gerrymandering and voter suppression to maintain power.

Basically Kavanaugh replacing the swing vote guarantees stuff like anti-abortion laws (not necessarily Roe v. Wade) get rubber stamped and things like UHC never getting off the ground.

That's the Republicans real victory.
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TheRock1525 posted...

Because short term political losses is irrelevant to a long term deeply conservative Supreme Court which will uphold gerrymandering and voter suppression to maintain power.

Basically Kavanaugh replacing the swing vote guarantees stuff like anti-abortion laws (not necessarily Roe v. Wade) get rubber stamped and things like UHC never getting off the ground.

That's the Republicans real victory.

Yeah, but the baffling thing is that they could get that same thing with another super-conservative nominee without rape allegations against them.
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TheRock1525 posted...

Because short term political losses is irrelevant to a long term deeply conservative Supreme Court which will uphold gerrymandering and voter suppression to maintain power.

Basically Kavanaugh replacing the swing vote guarantees stuff like anti-abortion laws (not necessarily Roe v. Wade) get rubber stamped and things like UHC never getting off the ground.

That's the Republicans real victory.

But they could literally still have that with any other Conservative pick?
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Why do they care?

I've long stood by the opinion that the Senate GOP desperately wishes Kavanaugh would drop out/Trump would pull the nomination but absent that they're too cowardly to oppose Trump and risk the wrath of his base.

A darker opinion I find myself coming to more and more the past days and weeks is that they see it as a referendum on MeToo/fear something similar happening to them and are knowingly choosing to take the side they have because at the end of the day they sympathize more with Kavanaugh - guilty or not - than they do the accusers.

Also unlike you I'm not sure what effect not confirming him has on turnout. Could see it energizing or depressing GOP turnout. Democrats I think are energized either way but go into turbo mode if the confirmation is forced through after this.
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Personally I don't think he should be confirmed but also not because he is conservative. We're getting one of those anyway. Like sephyg acts like this is a victory when really this is horrific for the GOP if he is confirmed. The democrats will use this to absolutely, without a doubt, murder the GOP for years.

What is "horrific" about it? How are democrats gonna "murder" the GOP for years regarding it? None of that makes sense.
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See recent polling where GOP is losing support among women. A lot of recent polling. Ask them what is horrible.
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pxlated posted...

StartTheMachine posted...

Oh holy shit again. Those women that were all right behind Kavanaugh during his hearing were placed their on purpose for optics. They were all women that he had worked with.

That backfired.

Most of them honestly looked like they were faking it.

Whatever was happening on his wife's face was undoubtedly the most unquestioningly honest part of his hearing. Still not sold it was the "divorce look" people are making it out to be but she was very clearly troubled and trying to reconcile ford's testimony. Her husband may not have watched it but she almost certainly did.

Edit: not so much faking it as overselling it to the point it looked unnatural

She was mad at what her husband and family was being put through. The fact you are so biased that you couldn't put that together is just silly. Take a step back at some point and breathe!
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

See recent polling where GOP is losing support among women. A lot of recent polling. Ask them what is horrible.

They aren't losing support among women. Everyone showed poll after poll of how women were going to carry Hillary to the white House. And she lost the woman vote iirc. These flavor of the moment polls don't show loss of voters anymore than the flavor of the moment polls showing more African American support for Trump show gained voters.

If you believe that is accurate to voters, you are silly. Republicans always come back when it is time to vote. Always have.

Hell, if you are so into polling the Gallup poll just said Republican outlook on the party is the best it has been in years.

You are not losing the woman vote to confirm someone who was alleged to have done a crime and in which no evidence exists to either prove or disprove it.

Most of America isn't liberal and automatically condemns someone as guilty because someone says so and it agrees with them politically.
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Corrik posted...

pxlated posted...

StartTheMachine posted...

Oh holy shit again. Those women that were all right behind Kavanaugh during his hearing were placed their on purpose for optics. They were all women that he had worked with.

That backfired.

Most of them honestly looked like they were faking it.

Whatever was happening on his wife's face was undoubtedly the most unquestioningly honest part of his hearing. Still not sold it was the "divorce look" people are making it out to be but she was very clearly troubled and trying to reconcile ford's testimony. Her husband may not have watched it but she almost certainly did.

Edit: not so much faking it as overselling it to the point it looked unnatural

She was mad at what her husband and family was being put through. The fact you are so biased that you couldn't put that together is just silly. Take a step back at some point and breathe!

have you missed the part where i have repeatedly said that i'm not convinced she's mad it him like people are claiming?

probably.
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See you in November. Arguing now is pointless
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pxlated posted...

Whatever was happening on his wife's face was undoubtedly the most unquestioningly honest part of his hearing. Still not sold it was the "divorce look" people are making it out to be but she was very clearly troubled and trying to reconcile ford's testimony. Her husband may not have watched it but she almost certainly did.

No. I read your post which does not say any of what you just said. But, maybe you said so in other posts.
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Corrik posted...

pxlated posted...

Whatever was happening on his wife's face was undoubtedly the most unquestioningly honest part of his hearing. Still not sold it was the "divorce look" people are making it out to be but she was very clearly troubled and trying to reconcile ford's testimony. Her husband may not have watched it but she almost certainly did.

No. I read your post which does not say any of what you just said. But, maybe you said so in other posts.

literally bolded the part where i said that in the post you quoted. which isn't even long.

classic corrik reading comprehension.
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Corrik posted...

They aren't losing support among women. Everyone showed poll after poll of how women were going to carry Hillary to the white House. And she lost the woman vote iirc. These flavor of the moment polls don't show loss of voters anymore than the flavor of the moment polls showing more African American support for Trump show gained voters.

No, she won women by a pretty substantial margin.

She lost white women by a bit.
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

See you in November. Arguing now is pointless

There is nothing to argue. The chances of taking the Senate have nothing to do with today. If anything, Trump's base is looking very deliberately if someone were to break rank. Trump himself has lambasted the Senate for not doing what it needs to do in regards to his agenda. It is why Trump is like 4 times more popular than the Senate is to Republicans. Trump in a way ate his arms off with his outcry against Congress at times. He praises Manchin before then tried to say Manchin was bad and you needed Morrissey. It is how Manchin can even say he is Pro-Trump and can point to Trump praising him despite campaigning against him and saying he needs to be removed.

Too many of you keep viewing Kavanaugh as guilty because you want him to be and not realizing that not everyone has your view.

The is Ford credible or not poll in my local newspaper website is like 2.5 to 1 against her being credible.

This is being viewed pretty partisanly down the line. Just because yinz are all liberals and view it one way, doesn't mean everyone does.

Not everyone views people as guilty upon accusation without evidence.
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Women voted Dem, 54% vs 41%
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Corrik posted...

And she lost the woman vote iirc.

lmao

Clinton won women by 13 points.
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like, of fucking course she's upset about what her family has been put through. that literally goes without saying.

what doesn't go without saying are the other potential emotions going on in her head. people are claiming it's "anger at her husband" or "divorce looks". my posts in this topic, the one you just quoted included, have basically been "i'm not sure what's actually going in on her head but whatever it is, it's fascinating to watch" because despite trying to remain collected, her facial expressions and body language were absolutely captivating.

the only opinion i've offered about what i think *is* going on in her head is that it seems pretty clear she *did* watch ford's testimony, because i feel like her expressions/body language, especially during his opening statements, convey someone processing a lot of new, heavy information.

edit: actually, that's not true. the other opinion i've offered, again, included in the very post you quoted, is that i'm *not* convinced she's mad at him/considering divorcing him.
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pxlated posted...

Corrik posted...

pxlated posted...

Whatever was happening on his wife's face was undoubtedly the most unquestioningly honest part of his hearing. Still not sold it was the "divorce look" people are making it out to be but she was very clearly troubled and trying to reconcile ford's testimony. Her husband may not have watched it but she almost certainly did.

No. I read your post which does not say any of what you just said. But, maybe you said so in other posts.

literally bolded the part where i said that in the post you quoted. which isn't even long.

classic corrik reading comprehension.

That doesn't say what you are saying it does.

I am not convinced she is all the way at red alert divorce. But clearly saw her testimony and is reconciling it and was the most honest thing of the hearings.

So if her look is "Ford is an asshole trying to make shit up and ruin our family". Is it still the most honest thing of the hearing?

Nothing you are saying in that post actually has any standing of it not being a response of her being mad at what her husband did.

It would be like saying "His response said it all. It may not be the I want to burn you alive and dance on your grave look, but he clearly knows that guy did something to his son and is trying to reconcile himself with it"

(In regards to a guy listening to another guy in regards to whether he killed his son or not).

Your response just states she might not want to divorce him over it "maybe" but she is mad he did something wrong.

And that is just not you able to see through bias.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Corrik posted...

They aren't losing support among women. Everyone showed poll after poll of how women were going to carry Hillary to the white House. And she lost the woman vote iirc. These flavor of the moment polls don't show loss of voters anymore than the flavor of the moment polls showing more African American support for Trump show gained voters.

No, she won women by a pretty substantial margin.

She lost white women by a bit.

Thanks. Correct. That is what I was referring to.
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I don't view him as guilty. I think the rush here is really strange and belittling.
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Corrik posted...

pxlated posted...

Corrik posted...

pxlated posted...

Whatever was happening on his wife's face was undoubtedly the most unquestioningly honest part of his hearing. Still not sold it was the "divorce look" people are making it out to be but she was very clearly troubled and trying to reconcile ford's testimony. Her husband may not have watched it but she almost certainly did.

No. I read your post which does not say any of what you just said. But, maybe you said so in other posts.

literally bolded the part where i said that in the post you quoted. which isn't even long.

classic corrik reading comprehension.

That doesn't say what you are saying it does.

I am not convinced she is all the way at red alert divorce. But clearly saw her testimony and is reconciling it and was the most honest thing of the hearings.

So if her look is "Ford is an asshole trying to make shit up and ruin our family". Is it still the most honest thing of the hearing?

Nothing you are saying in that post actually has any standing of it not being a response of her being mad at what her husband did.

It would be like saying "His response said it all. It may not be the I want to burn you alive and dance on your grave look, but he clearly knows that guy did something to his son and is trying to reconcile himself with it"

(In regards to a guy listening to another guy in regards to whether he killed his son or not).

Your response just states she might not want to divorce him over it "maybe" but she is mad he did something wrong.

And that is just not you able to see through bias.

no, it doesn't say she's mad he did something wrong. it says she's trying to process emotional and honest sounding testimony from someone accusing her husband.

it literally doesn't say a thing about whether or not she believes he did it.

you're so biased that you can't see things through the framing that anyone that doesn't agree with you must think kavanaugh is undoubtedly guilty

see? both of us can play that game
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also corrik literally just admitted to using "women" to mean "white women"

oof
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Yeah only white women matter, Pxl.
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I don't view him as guilty. I think the rush here is really strange and belittling.

Well then kudos. Because nothing here has been presented that makes him guilty.

However, you have others who have openly said he is an attempted rapist as if it is fact over and over again.

Would they be continuing the confirmation so quickly if not under the gun of midterms? Of course not.

Is there anything that has ample evidence to support delaying the confirmation with the deadline approaching? Not really.

Would they be continuing with Kavanaugh if ample evidence did exist against Kavanaugh? Of course not.

I mean, they aren't "supporting rapists" and being "anti-women". They are supporting their candidate under the gun of midterms elections who has been accused of things that there is no evidence to support.

Simple as that.
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like, are you really so dense that you can't fathom having to process compelling testimony about sexual assault allegations against your husband without also absolutely believing he did it?

even if you stand by your partner in that situation, even if you've believed him the whole time, seeing testimony as compelling as ford's was is going to leave you shook. most people with any amount of empathy are going to have to process that. even if the processing eventually ends up back at 'i believe my husband", you're going to have to reconcile it in your head.

i guess i shouldn't be surprised because i'm pretty sure you admitted to not having actually watched ford's testimony.
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In fairness Corrik you know I berate many people on the left in these topics so it shouldn't surprise you. Anyone who is certain he did this is biased.

I think the GOP are hurting themselves tbh. Which doesn't anger or worry me. Fine. Confirm him. Have fun haha.
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pxlated posted...

also corrik literally just admitted to using "women" to mean "white women"

oof

Yes, white women are the ones who voted for Trump over Clinton when polls over and over again said Clinton would win them.

Figuring like 9% of African Americans vote Republican and like maybe 20% or so of Latinos do. They are relatively insignificant numbers for Republicans voter rolls. When you say it will lose you the woman vote, you have to be basically referring to the white woman vote.
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pxlated posted...

like, are you really so dense that you can't fathom having to process compelling testimony about sexual assault allegations against your husband without also absolutely believing he did it?

even if you stand by your partner in that situation, even if you've believed him the whole time, seeing testimony as compelling as ford's was is going to leave you shook. most people with any amount of empathy are going to have to process that. even if the processing eventually ends up back at 'i believe my husband", you're going to have to reconcile it in your head.

i guess i shouldn't be surprised because i'm pretty sure you admitted to not having actually watched ford's testimony.

As compelling as Ford's.

I mean I didn't watch it. I played Ori instead (what a great decision by me).

But, Democrats came out of it convinced how compelling Ford was.

Republicans came out of it convinced how compelling Kavanaugh was.

I have read quite a few things from how Ford was faking it and was erratic and thus lying. And I have heard how Ford was so compelling and honest and trustworthy that you couldn't help but believe her.

I have read quite a few things about how Kavanaugh was emotional, not impartial, and didn't have the temperment of the job of judge and cried which was basically an admission of guilt. I have read how Kavanaugh was disgusted, fiery, and told it like it was regarding the political circus of the confirmation. That he was extremely believable and cried with emotion with pureness based on how things were being unfairly presented against him and his family.

The only differences of these opinions? Basically where the voter's political party is beforehand.

People are just believing what they want to believe.

The facts are the facts though. Kavanugh has not been found guilty of a crime, and would not be found guilty of a crime with what is presented. Thus, he must be treated as innocent unless such evidence would ever arise. Did he do it? Maybe? Is she lying? Maybe.

We don't know. And it is careless to assume one way or the other.

It is quite possible they both are telling the truth as far as what they think happened. We don't know that either.

That is why it is best to stick to what we do know.
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even the republicans in the judiciary committee admit that ford's testimony was compelling and credible, dude. they're just running with there not being any evidence that it was kavanaugh and not someone else (which is true, ultimately)
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also, i haven't said a single thing about whether or not i believe kavanaugh is guilty. intentionally. and it's literally irrelevant to this discussion whether or not i think he did.

but please, move the goal posts.
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pxlated posted...

even the republicans in the judiciary committee admit that ford's testimony was compelling and credible, dude. they're just running with there not being any evidence that it was kavanaugh and not someone else (which is true, ultimately)

I am referring to Republican voters.

But, I do find it amusing you think Republican Senators would tell a possible attempted rape "survivor" to her face on national television that she is full of shit and to go fuck herself when there is also no evidence that directly forbids her from being telling the truth either.
Lol
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why did you put survivor in quotes
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source on me saying i think republicans would tell her she is full of shit and go fuck herself
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pxlated posted...

also, i haven't said a single thing about whether or not i believe kavanaugh is guilty. intentionally. and it's literally irrelevant to this discussion whether or not i think he did.

but please, move the goal posts.

I have already shown in your posts how you have painted a picture.

You are welcome to outright state your views if your context of your posts and implications of your posts is betraying your actual position.
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xp1337 posted...

why did you put survivor in quotes

I don't know what the actual word for it would be. I see usage of survivor regarding it a lot, but I highly think that is not the proper use there.

Thus, I was using the word I see used a lot there instead of the word I felt was best fit there.
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also, for the record, almost 0 republicans actually said anything to ford's face. all of the claims of her being credible and compelling came after she was gone.

because almost 0 of the republicans actually talked to ford. they used a stand in.
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also even if Corrik just meant white women he'd still be wrong -- because polls accurately had white women favouring .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/the-demographic-groups-fueling-the-election/

White women with college degrees (14% of registered voters)
48% Clinton
33% Trump
[+15% Clinton]

White women without college degrees (24% of registered voters)
28% Clinton
59% Trump
[+31% Trump]
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