Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 186: Such a leap, it should be the Al Capone Vault

(+) Yeah! (+)

Out of boredom, I messed around with Corrik's set of numbers.

20k*1000
20k*1000
20k*1000
30k*1000
40k*1000
50k*1000
60k*1000
70k*1000
80k*1000
250k*1000
1000k*1000

So we have 11k jobs in this list with an average income of 149.09k. Lets add in .5% growth and assume for the sake of argument that they're all the lowest on the list at 20k. .5% of 11k is 55 extra jobs. With that the average is now 148.44k. The median doesn't actually change here either. So the workers have lost 650$ on average by adding those people in. That sounds significant, but that only amounts to a .43% drop in wages. The top bracket making even 1% more thanks to the tax cuts would more than cover that. So even in the most convenient case for Trump, new employment doesn't really cover the losses.
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Corrik, a few thoughts before I suspect I drop my part in this abomination of a discussion I've willingly created. (To everyone else, I promise to wait at least a month before doing this shit again.)

- I don't personally care about Regaro's opinion on what he posted. I don't personally care about your initial response of "Misleading". I care enough about your evaluation and the significance you think it holds to go down the rabbit hole I knew it would lead.

- I'll spell this one out for you since you missed it repeatedly. People said you can't read because you kept saying that Regaro was saying that no one benefited from Trump, when he specifically said that "normal" people weren't benefiting from him. Obviously even in the worst economies there is someone who has benefited.

- I never said that your point has absolute zero impact. I said it was insignificant. There is a difference. Although in the case of median instead of mean in simplified examples it would tend to be zero impact (as JeffRaze just showed).
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kevwaffles posted...

I don't personally care about Regaro's opinion on what he posted. I don't personally care about your initial response of "Misleading". I care enough about your evaluation and the significance you think it holds to go down the rabbit hole I knew it would lead.

That is a problem then. I obviously fall in the normal person equation. I have benefited. Telling you they are lying through their teeth and deserve their shame is an issue.

I feel you can acknowledge that.

And, to be fair, I have not benefited wage-wise yet. Just take home pay wise/tax burden. (which is financially). I am under contract until April of next year in which we will then have our new contract which will relate to wages.
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Corrik posted...

And, to be fair, I have not benefited wage-wise yet. Just take home pay wise/tax burden. (which is financially).

See, if I were you and were dead set on countering him, I would have just gone with that angle in the first place. Whether it applies on a large scale or not I couldn't say, but it's a logical possibility. Your initial point about wages for new employees isn't illogical, but it's just pretty easy to show why it doesn't matter all that much.

I don't really get caught up on the hyperbole of commentary because everyone does that shit all the time and I'm not gonna change that. In other words, I'm not going to say Reg's take is a problem, but I'm certainly not going to claim it as a fact either.

Also, you're not normal. Zing!
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Well, that counter to that would be the big Steel companies are asking for concessions in pay in initial negotiating.

But...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/01/business/trump-steel-tariffs-arcelor-mittal.html

https://www.nwitimes.com/business/lake-newsletter/arcelormittal-makes-billion-in-second-quarter/article_f8c86720-b4b4-5e43-a61c-4e8350f9fb6c.html

Let's be honest where that is gonna go.

The problem is are they gonna get us on healthcare. We will see.

But yeah the steel makers contracts which were flat the last 3 years renegotiate right now.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gains-157000-jobs-in-july-unemployment-falls-to-39-2018-08-03
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https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/03/politics/trump-administration-aclu-deported-parents/index.html

So, the Trump administration is now arguing that the ACLU should find the parents they deported who are separated from their children to reunify them. (But also won't give the ACLU all the information they're asking for in order to help.)
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http://paceidocs.sosonline.org/PDF/Dunlap%20PACEI%20Docs%20Findings%20letter%20-%20FINAL.080318.pdf

Matthew Dunlap, the Maine Secretary of State, was on Trump's election fraud investigation committee. He found that there was essentially no evidence to support the idea that millions of illegal votes were cast in the 2016 election.

In other words, Trump lied. Again.
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Corrik posted...

The problem is are they gonna get us on healthcare. We will see.

We thank you for your continued patronage.
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Ok I skipped the last 30 posts so sorry if this was addressed.

Corrik, I agree with you that Regaro's post is absurd hyperbole and should not be taken seriously (which in my mind is the case regardless of what the data really says), but your claim really is not mathematically sound and you should not claim that you proved anything. When I have more time I'll post more detail as to why.
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Corrik posted...

Go to a real forum and stop hiding in an echo chamber. lol

let me guess - a "real forum" would be r/the_donald?
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https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1025071229835927554

retweeted by trump. does he understand that 29% is still not good, even though it's higher than it used to be?
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1025512396654346251

"NASA is making a BIG comeback"? was NASA going through tough times before?
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The space shuttle program has ended without being replaced; America needs to rely on foreign countries (Russia) in order to get to the ISS. So, yeah, it's not a great time for NASA.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dGVXmuLmEM" data-time="&start=53

sigh
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If I was a Trump supporter and I saw the level of stupid around me at rallies, I'd start to question what I was supporting
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MalcolmMasher posted...

The space shuttle program has ended without being replaced; America needs to rely on foreign countries (Russia) in order to get to the ISS. So, yeah, it's not a great time for NASA.

And just to be clear, this is a pre-Trump issue
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Jakyl25 posted...

MalcolmMasher posted...

The space shuttle program has ended without being replaced; America needs to rely on foreign countries (Russia) in order to get to the ISS. So, yeah, it's not a great time for NASA.

And just to be clear, this is a pre-Trump issue

It is, but NASA's budget becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of the overall budget while the military budget keeps getting more and more bloated doesn't help.
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Fox News gets footage of Sasquatch!

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5817848690001/?#sp=show-clips

Probably Alex Jones running around nude in the woods on a chili bender
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why is trump randomly insulting Lebron now
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Because Trump's pissed that Lebron and Curry said they'd never to go the White House while he's there and he's had a grudge since
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

why is trump randomly insulting Lebron now

Cnn interview where he was asked if he would run for president if there was nobody else and Trump would win if if didnt.

https://twitter.com/CNNTonight/status/1025595252655058944
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

why is trump randomly insulting Lebron now

Do What now?

MWC must be jumping and down yelling "Take that, Motherfucker! Ungh!"
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i don't know that i agree with everything in this video, but it articulates a number of things better than i ever could about that russia conversation from the last topic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXdL_-H89rk" data-time="

also more noam chomsky is always a good thing
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http://fortune.com/2018/08/04/unite-the-right-rally-unions/

Gotta give the bigots their safe spaces!
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He... He just tweeted it out... Part 2.

Trump admits that the Trump Tower meeting in 2016 was to get dirt on Clinton. I think that's the first time he has done so. I'm curious to know if that would make the previous statement that it was about adoptions rise to the level of obstruction. But either way, that's a huge admission, even if it was obvious to any impartial observer.
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xp1337 posted...

He... He just tweeted it out... Part 2.

Trump admits that the Trump Tower meeting in 2016 was to get dirt on Clinton. I think that's the first time he has done so. I'm curious to know if that would make the previous statement that it was about adoptions rise to the level of obstruction. But either way, that's a huge admission, even if it was obvious to any impartial observer.

So at the very least he is 100% guilty of conspiracy, right?
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Not_an_Owl posted...

xp1337 posted...

He... He just tweeted it out... Part 2.

Trump admits that the Trump Tower meeting in 2016 was to get dirt on Clinton. I think that's the first time he has done so. I'm curious to know if that would make the previous statement that it was about adoptions rise to the level of obstruction. But either way, that's a huge admission, even if it was obvious to any impartial observer.

So at the very least he is 100% guilty of conspiracy, right?

The whole thing with hope hicks is also 100% tampering with a federal witnesses.
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xp1337 posted...

He... He just tweeted it out... Part 2.

Trump admits that the Trump Tower meeting in 2016 was to get dirt on Clinton. I think that's the first time he has done so. I'm curious to know if that would make the previous statement that it was about adoptions rise to the level of obstruction. But either way, that's a huge admission, even if it was obvious to any impartial observer.

But he didnt know about it! Despite knowing a lot about it now!
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I await the next tweet

Yes of course I sent my son to the meeting to keep my nose out of trouble! He, authorized by me, offered a hostile foreign government various favors from me when I took office in exchange for dirt on Crooked Hillary. Thats NOT A CRIME!
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Im only half joking
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I've been dealing with a death in the family the past week, sorry to ask this: can I get I recap of what's happened in here since August began? Any interesting links I missed? I'm pretty news-blind the past few days.

Bonus points if it's about the Manafort trial, but any help in catching up would be appreciated, thanks.
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https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/06/technology/facebook-infowars-alex-jones/index.html

YouTube, Facebook, and Apple Podcasts took down InfoWars stuff

Time to move to RT, Alex
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Good riddance
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Not_an_Owl posted...

http://paceidocs.sosonline.org/PDF/Dunlap%20PACEI%20Docs%20Findings%20letter%20-%20FINAL.080318.pdf

Matthew Dunlap, the Maine Secretary of State, was on Trump's election fraud investigation committee. He found that there was essentially no evidence to support the idea that millions of illegal votes were cast in the 2016 election.

In other words, Trump lied. Again.

Was away from the weekend.

Daaamn.
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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1026524292396273664?s=21

wtf is he even talking about here p
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bring back the old "there's no drought in California, they're just dumping all the water in the ocean"

a classic
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I think someone told him that they need water to combat the wildfires in California, and he looked at his map with county-level election results and was like "but there's water right there!"

Also, this is a good time to plug the 99% Invisible podcast, whose recent episode about forest fires was very good.
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what
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He could probably sign an executive order to release all this stolen water
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If I may change the subject from cold water to hot water...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/06/politics/paul-manafort-trial-rick-gates-donald-trump/index.html

In stunning testimony at Manafort's trial on tax and fraud charges, Gates stated he and Manafort had 15 foreign accounts they did not report to the federal government, and knew it was illegal. Gates said he did not submit the required forms "at Mr. Manafort's direction."

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Jakyl25 posted...

If I may change the subject from cold water to hot water...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/06/politics/paul-manafort-trial-rick-gates-donald-trump/index.html

In stunning testimony at Manafort's trial on tax and fraud charges, Gates stated he and Manafort had 15 foreign accounts they did not report to the federal government, and knew it was illegal. Gates said he did not submit the required forms "at Mr. Manafort's direction."

That's a bit of a big deal
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How do you counter that as a defense team? Attack his credibility based on the idea that saying what the prosecution wanted to hear, even if untrue, would benefit him?

Because if you accept him as a credible witness, I dont know how you come back from that.
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I think it's pretty common strategy to say that a cooperating witness is lying to get a better deal (since yeah, it's kind of all you have to work with).
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I feel like Gates should be able to provide evidence of those accounts, though possibly not Manaforts connection to them
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Jakyl25 posted...

How do you counter that as a defense team? Attack his credibility based on the idea that saying what the prosecution wanted to hear, even if untrue, would benefit him?

Because if you accept him as a credible witness, I dont know how you come back from that.

The first play that comes to my mind is the defense claiming that Gates is trying to frame Manafort. Failing that, yes, I think you'd have to go for his credibility.
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https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1026578824606179336
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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1026578824606179336

niceme.me
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Woof, Rosie O'Donnell was on The Beat just belting out a bunch of harsh truth bombs on the MSM and normalizing Trump. Even naming names, MSNBC included (suck it Scarborough), and saying everyone should stop covering Trump's rallies when their nothing but repeated vicious attacks on his perceived enemies of the day.

Not sure how much I agree with it all but my dad watching was just all "that's what I've been saying!" throughout
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Well, it makes sense for them to send someone to the rallies on the off chance something important/new is said. That said, unless that happens, there isn't really a reason to air them or anything at this point.

Normalizing him is something they won't stop doing though.
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