Board 8 > NHL Free Agency Discussion

(+) Yeah! (+)

We already got signings going.

JVR heading to the Flyers
Stastny to the Knights

Tavares to the Leafs??????? Please
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JT to the Leafs for the league minimum.
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Perron to the Blues

Holy shit Polak is going to Dallas! The nightmare is over! Thank god
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davidponte posted...

Perron to the Blues

Holy shit Polak is going to Dallas! The nightmare is over! Thank god

Yeah Ive been asking myself why for the last 45 minutes
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Looks like Karlsson might be on the move.

Maybe he'll get traded out of the division then right back into it in true Sens fashion
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Vanek is going back to Detroit once again
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Cam Ward to Chicago

Bozak to the Blues.

Sad to see Bozak and JVR gone, even if it's for the better. Sucks that these guys had to endure the garbage years and move on right as the team is on the upswing.

Tavares would be a solid replacement, though.
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Let's go Panthers, time to splurge!
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Woah, 5 mil per year for Bozak. Glad the Leafs didn't pay that.
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Tavares to the Leafs.

What

Someone tell me how to feel
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This is the greatest moment of my hockey watching career
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Looking forward to the Toronto media ripping Tavares apart should he begin to "underperform"
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That's a rite of passage here
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*Remembers Free Agency starts today, and goes to Wild website*

"Wild sign 3rd pair defensemen, fourth liners, and are looking for a backup goaltender*

FUCKING...I know I know. I shouldn't be surprised. I'm just teetering on the brink of apathy and sadness right now. This team is just so boring.
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Meanwhile the Blackhawks signed a bunch of dudes for short term and not a lot of money.

Eh, not like anything outside of signing Tavares or trading for Erik Karlsson would drastically improve their chances next year.
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Tavares has opened the floodgates, Matthews to sign with the Coyotes after this year.
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Komarov to the Islanders. That's all three of the Leafs guys signed now
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Honestly I'm not sure Tavares is worth that much money.

Is he better than JVR? Sure. Is he like 4 million dollars per year better than JVR? I'm not so sure about that one.

I'll probably bet against the Leafs next year. People are expecting too much from this.
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Do the Leafs have a top tier blueliner?
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Not even close really. Rielly, Zaitzev, Gardiner... wouldn't be first-pairing guys on quite a few of the top teams in the league.
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JVR is a one-dimensional player. He does what he does very well, but his defense is bad and he gets shut down in the playoffs.

Tavares can match him offensively at the very least, is one of the best two way centres in the league, and he's a centre.

I feel like he could have got more than 11 million when you look at some other contracts.

Now obviously the Leafs defense is still an issue, but this easily makes them a better team than they were last year.
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I feel like he could have got more than 11 million when you look at some other contracts.

Which ones?

Ovechkin is making 9.5
Crosby 8.7
Giroux 8.3
Stamkos 8.5

Do you think he's better than any of those guys (all of whom are a lot more playoff tested)
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Ive always thought Tavares was overrated. I mean, I would have shit my pants if the Stars landed him. Hes a top 10 center, but 11 mil is too much. Now Im curious if Seguin gets that much. Seguin is basically a younger JT, and IMO hes slightly better.
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SmartMuffin posted...

I feel like he could have got more than 11 million when you look at some other contracts.

Which ones?

Ovechkin is making 9.5
Crosby 8.7
Giroux 8.3
Stamkos 8.5

Do you think he's better than any of those guys (all of whom are a lot more playoff tested)

Every year contracts get higher. You can't even go 2 years back without numbers not making sense.

Everyone must be overrated since Gretzky was only making 2 million a year.

You've got to look at percentage of the cap to make the numbers work.
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davidponte posted...

SmartMuffin posted...

I feel like he could have got more than 11 million when you look at some other contracts.

Which ones?

Ovechkin is making 9.5
Crosby 8.7
Giroux 8.3
Stamkos 8.5

Do you think he's better than any of those guys (all of whom are a lot more playoff tested)

Every year contracts get higher. You can't even go 2 years back without numbers not making sense.

Everyone must be overrated since Gretzky was only making 2 million a year.

You've got to look at percentage of the cap to make the numbers work.

All of those guys signed their contracts when they were considered to be top 3 players in the world not top 15
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https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/8vbbtw/the_mapleleafs_have_agreed_to_terms_with_free/e1m0rf4/

I'm not computer savvy enough to copy that chart over here, so I'll just link it. It aligns the numbers better than "this number is higher than this number, even though the smaller number was signed X many years ago".

11 million isn't peanuts, but if he signed for 12 or 12.5 here or somewhere else, I don't think that'd be an overpayment.

But we'll see. Obviously I'm being incredibly biased here.
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Lockes Ragnarok posted...

davidponte posted...

SmartMuffin posted...

I feel like he could have got more than 11 million when you look at some other contracts.

Which ones?

Ovechkin is making 9.5
Crosby 8.7
Giroux 8.3
Stamkos 8.5

Do you think he's better than any of those guys (all of whom are a lot more playoff tested)

Every year contracts get higher. You can't even go 2 years back without numbers not making sense.

Everyone must be overrated since Gretzky was only making 2 million a year.

You've got to look at percentage of the cap to make the numbers work.

All of those guys signed their contracts when they were considered to be top 3 players in the world not top 15

That has nothing to do with it, though. Are you aware of how the cap has increased over the last few years, or do you see that 11 is larger than 8 therefore it's an overpayment?

Look at the chart. JT is at 13.8% of the cap in year 1. Kopitar and Malkin show similar percentages. Are they top 3 in the world?

I just don't understand how anyone can only take the raw dollar figures at face value and come to the conclusion that it was an overpayment.
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Hell, it still might be an overpayment, who knows.

All I'm saying is that it's so much more complex than 8 < 11 so the contract is bad.
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No I get what youre saying - Malkin got what he deserved. Kopitar probably got overpaid, but the Kings are overpaying everyone. Look at Doughtys contract from today. Theres an age factor that goes into it also.

The Leafs got a really good player today, and if my team got him I would be extatic. I would still say he was overpaid though, assuming it was the same 11 mil. I get where youre coming from too - fuck it, overpay to get him, just be aware that its an overpayment.

I just dont think hes a top 5 center like the hype machine would have us believe.
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Yeah, of course. I didn't mean to come off so strongly there.

I think a major part of the hype comes from how high profile it was. When was the last time a player of this percieved caliber came on the market? Has it ever happened? Sure, better players, like Stamkos, have nearly reached this point, but no one has actually become a full-on July 1st UFA like this.
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4 hours into signing Tavares and I've already become an insufferable Leafs fans.
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davidponte posted...

4 hours into signing Tavares and I've already become an insufferable Leafs fans.

They hate us cause they ain't us. Embrace the hate.
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Lockes Ragnarok posted...

No I get what youre saying - Malkin got what he deserved. Kopitar probably got overpaid, but the Kings are overpaying everyone. Look at Doughtys contract from today. Theres an age factor that goes into it also.

The Leafs got a really good player today, and if my team got him I would be extatic. I would still say he was overpaid though, assuming it was the same 11 mil. I get where youre coming from too - fuck it, overpay to get him, just be aware that its an overpayment.

I just dont think hes a top 5 center like the hype machine would have us believe.

Yeah, this is sort of where I'm at as well. I'm not saying JT is a bad player, and yes, I understand that contracts go up each and every year such that if Ovechkin and Crosby and Stamkos came on the open market today, they too would probably be making at least 11.

That said, I stand by my assertion that JT isn't a third better than JVR is. And I think Toronto has bigger needs (defense, as someone else suggested).

BTW I'd take both Malkin and Kopitar over JT. Both have led their teams to multiple Stanley Cups and that counts for something. Malkin is a perennial threat to win the scoring title, Kopitar is a perennial threat to win the Selke while simultaneously leading his team in points.

I feel like Tavares is this decades version of Rick Nash. He's that guy that we keep being told is really great, and that it's totally not his fault he plays with a bunch of losers who can never make the playoffs. And that as soon as he gets traded to a good team he'll clearly win many cups and a Hart.

Well, that didn't really work out for Rick Nash. And I'm not sure it's going to work out here either.
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Also, I think it's important to distinguish between contracts that reward past performance, and contracts that anticipate future performance.

McDavid has a contract that anticipates future performance. And while it's a lot of money, it doesn't look that bad.

Kane and Toews have contracts that reward past performance. And while they're both good players, those are nasty contracts that are probably killing any chance the Blackhawks have of rebuilding in this era.

At this point in his career, the JT contract looks more past-looking than forward-looking to me.
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I think a difference between Tavares and some of those comparisons, particularly Nash, is that he's still only 27 years old.

He theoretically should be in his prime right now. I think it's unfair to say his best years are behind him, unless we get a Mike Richards situation where he falls off the face of the Earth.
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Hey, Mike Richards was still a pretty big cog in helping a team win its first cup in 40+ years.

I feel like Leafs fans would take that deal if it was offered :)
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Rick Nash joined the Rangers in 2012. If my quick math is right, he would have been about 28 at the time?
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Nash is also a bigger, slower player, so I can see how he could become less relevant faster.
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I wonder what the average peak age is for elite-level performance?

28 might be about my guess. If someone like JT hasn't peaked yet, he probably will within the next 2-3 years, right? For reference, Crosby is 30, Ovechkin is 32, Kane is 29...
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I've always heard of 27 as the prime year, but that might be a baseball thing.

Apparently the Sharks were offering 13 million for Tavares.
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Basically, if you think Tavares hasn't peaked yet, if you think he's going to keep getting better for 1-3 years, then provide another 1-3 years of "at least as good as he is today", this is a good contract.

However, if he's already peaked, and isn't going to get any better and will start to get worse over the next 1-3 years, it's an awful one.
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What if he stays the same.

I don't think he has to be better as long as he remains consistent.

Maybe with some of the star power of the Leafs he'll perform better, regardless of whether he "gets better", if you know what I mean.
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SmartMuffin posted...

Basically, if you think Tavares hasn't peaked yet, if you think he's going to keep getting better for 1-3 years, then provide another 1-3 years of "at least as good as he is today", this is a good contract.

However, if he's already peaked, and isn't going to get any better and will start to get worse over the next 1-3 years, it's an awful one.

So based on this, we can do expect at least the same contract for Seguin, being a year and a half younger.
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Lebron to the Lakers in what is safely the second biggest free agent signing of the day
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The Blues traded to Buffalo Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka and Tage Thompson, a first-round pick in 2019 & a second-round pick in 2021. They have received Ryan O'Reilly in return
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WTF

thats an absolute fucking haul for O'Reilly

especially for a Blues team that's not particularly close to winning a cup

wtfwtfwtf
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I'm not seeing how trading for Ryan O'Reilly makes the Blues better than the Predators or the Jets
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https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/learned-anybody-better-maple-leafs-132853519.html

Not that Ryan Lambert is overreacting or anything...
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I don't even know who that is. Is that the best and brightest of American hockey coverage?
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No, he's the opposite of that.

His declaring the Leafs to be good gives me the utmost confidence that they will miss the playoffs.
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