Current Events > thanks, white Alabama

(+) Yeah! (+)

http://mattbruenig.com/2017/12/15/what-actually-happened-in-alabama/

According to CNN exit polling, 30 percent of the electorate was African-American, with 96 percent of them voting for Mr. Jones. (Mr. Joness backers had felt he needed to get north of 25 percent to have a shot to win.) A remarkable 98 percent of black women voters supported Mr. Jones. The share of black voters on Tuesday was higher than the share in 2008 and 2012, when Barack Obama was on the ballot.

But if you actually look at the exit polling, it is pretty clear that the real story of Joness victory was not inordinate black turnout but rather inordinate white support for the Democratic candidate.

The black share of the electorate and black support for Democrats are virtually unchanged across the three elections, but the outcome in the last election is wildly different.

The white share of the electorate is virtually unchanged, but white support for the Democrat changes dramatically, rising all the way to 30 percent in the Jones-Moore election. This white swing towards the Democratic candidate is basically solely responsible for the fact that Jones won rather than losing by over 20 points, which is the typical outcome of a statewide Alabama election that features this level of black turnout.

any thoughts on this?
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Pretty funny that they can't let em have just this one. Always gotta insert themselves somehow, come away the real heroes even when it supposedly isn't about them. Kek

That being said, whether or not this thing is true doesn't really matter and if the author had a modicum of self awareness and critical thinking he'd be able to deduce that writing this analysis was a waste of time.
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runs against the intended narrative (although why people want that narrative i dont know)
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Asherlee10 posted...

So, it isn't that more black people went out and voted, it was that some of the white people voted for Jones instead?

I found it funny that some of those outspoken black people wanted credit for voting in their own self interests and doing what they always do in elections. Kind of reminds me of a line from the Chris Rock bit.
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Yeah percentages can be disingenuous here I feel.

If 100 black people vote, and you have a 96% D vote that's 96

But if 10000 black people vote...

Percentage-wise this makes sense, but my understanding was that a higher overall number of black voters showed up than usual despite the GOP actively working against them having the ability to do so
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eston posted...

Percentage-wise this makes sense, but my understanding was that a higher overall number of black voters showed up than usual despite the GOP actively working against them having the ability to do so

that was my understanding on 538 also

i am confused as to how only 30% of the electorate was black since that's the state population

i had thought more of them showed up
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I'm honestly way more surprised that 30 percent of whites voted for him than I am that over 90 percent of blacks voted for him.
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did anyone think the contrary? it would be hard for the voter base already near completely on one side to somehow push further to that side in any impactful way, aside from increased turnout, which this says didn't really change with white voters either
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http://mattbruenig.com/wp-content/uploads/ab-768x140.png

The black share of the electorate and black support for Democrats are virtually unchanged across the three elections, but the outcome in the last election is wildly different.

Seems pretty self-explanatory.
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Romes187 posted...

Yeah percentages can be disingenuous here I feel.

If 100 black people vote, and you have a 96% D vote that's 96

But if 10000 black people vote...

that is why the share of the vote that tehy are is relevant

it is basically unchanged from previous elections

Darkman124 posted...

eston posted...

Percentage-wise this makes sense, but my understanding was that a higher overall number of black voters showed up than usual despite the GOP actively working against them having the ability to do so

that was my understanding on 538 also

i am confused as to how only 30% of the electorate was black since that's the state population

i had thought more of them showed up

Well, the main difference is that white voter turnout was down slightly -- the black vote was up only slightly from 2012 and not at all from 2008

black voter turnout is pretty good when you control for stuff like SES; white people vote at around the same numbers, but you'd expect it to be a lot more based on that

edit -- to be clear, other minorities make up the difference here in voteshare, if anyone is wondering how black voteshare can stay the same and white voteshare can go down
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prettyprincess posted...

did anyone think the contrary?

yes

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doug-jones-black-voter-turnout_us_5a311f3be4b01bdd7658d464

Balrog0 posted...

Well, the main difference is that white voter turnout was down slightly -- the black vote was up only slightly from 2012 and not at all from 2008

black voter turnout is pretty good when you control for stuff like SES; white people vote at around the same numbers, but you'd expect it to be a lot more based on that

i had thought data was showing white turnout was down and black basically constant

maybe it was turnout in majority-white areas that were deeply conservative, vs mixed communities being higher, meaning for once the white liberals of AL actually went to the polls?
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Antifar posted...

http://mattbruenig.com/wp-content/uploads/ab-768x140.png

When black people turn up to vote in normal numbers:
http://www.newsweek.com/who-voted-doug-jones-black-women-supported-democratic-senate-candidate-98-746358

When black people don't show to up to vote:


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The Admiral posted...

Antifar posted...

http://mattbruenig.com/wp-content/uploads/ab-768x140.png

When black people turn up to vote in normal numbers:
http://www.newsweek.com/who-voted-doug-jones-black-women-supported-democratic-senate-candidate-98-746358

When black people don't show to up to vote:

well in this case what they needed was for white people to show up slightly less, and for some of them to change their mind about how much they like [Republican]
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True the black and other minority groups voted the same and at the same number as always and that alone wouldn't have put Jones other the time it was white democrats, moderate and people who just couldn't bring themselves to vote for someone like Moore that put Jones over the time. Course it was a group effort.
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Godnorgosh posted...

What we learned from that election is that black women are the key to solving the world's problems, and people like this author are trying to distract us from that truth.

This Summer: "Tyler Perry's Madea Saves America"

Balrog0 posted...

and for some of them to change their mind about how much they like [Republican]

maybe we are viewing this the wrong way per my last post
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Darkman124 posted...

i had thought data was showing white turnout was down and black basically constant

maybe it was turnout in majority-white areas that were deeply conservative, vs mixed communities being higher, meaning for once the white liberals of AL actually went to the polls?

that's very plausible -- rural counties were voting in smaller numbers than expected iirc

so it's possible that literally no white people changed their minds, rural voters just expected to lose and liberal voters in cities thought they might win and actually thought it was worthwhile to go vote for once

we'd have to dig more into the numbers though
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i think 538 posted the county-by-county numbers

they do seem to support this hypothesis

and personally it makes way more sense that a republican decides to not vote and a democrat decides to vote rather than a republican deciding to vote for a democrat
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Darkman124 posted...

yes

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doug-jones-black-voter-turnout_us_5a311f3be4b01bdd7658d464

while of course huffpo failed to note all or even the most impactful factors here, there's perhaps something to be said for evaluating minor increases/victories to break expectation and cyclical voter stagnation
curious the degree of effect that has, if any
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This was already obvious but people just chose to ignore it because it didnt sound as good as the identity politics narrative.
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The Admiral posted...

Kind of reminds me of a line from the Chris Rock bit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeQIQuDL8aA
That one?
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You're welcome, I guess, but I didn't vote so
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I don't care either way, that piece of shit lost the race and hopefully gets tossed into the waste bin of history. And I'm glad that his lasting legacy will be "Roy Moore: Republican who lost a Senate seat in deep red Alabama after allegations of dating teenagers and years of bigoted comments"
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CarlGrimes posted...

That one?

Haha, yes, it was a part of that bit.

That was also my favorite Michael Scott episode before they rewrote his character in season 2.
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The guy was a weak candidate with severe allegations he did nothing to defend. What the hell does race have to do with this, and why is it always the left that tries to make everything racial... and then accuse everyone else of being racists?
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so does it mean that CNN piece about how black women are saving the world...needs to be redacted to include this fact?
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The Admiral posted...

That was also my favorite Michael Scott episode before they rewrote his character in season 2.

yeah, I liked season 1 scott a lot

r4X0r posted...

The guy was a weak candidate with severe allegations he did nothing to defend. What the hell does race have to do with this, and why is it always the left that tries to make everything racial... and then accuse everyone else of being racists?

here's what you don't get, these conveniently timed character smears aren't going to work any more
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we didn't do this for you WHITE PEOPLE!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/12/14/we-didnt-do-it-for-you-black-women- sound-off-on-saving-america-from-roy-moore/?utm_term=.ddad5b4c7e2f

On Wednesday night, late-night television hosts dove headfirst into the fallout from this weeks Senate race in Alabama. Over on The Daily Show, Trevor Noah tapped the programs correspondent Dulce Sloan to highlight one of the bigger takeaways from Doug Joness squeaker win over Roy Moore: the role of Alabamas black women in delivering a win for Democrat Jones over Republican Moore.

According to exit polls, 98 percent of black women voted for Jones, with 93 percent of black men turning up for the candidate. White men and women, by contrast, voted 26 and 34 percent for Jones, respectively.

The strong showing sparked a lot of social media commentary and celebration online for black women, cascading to the point where a hashtag (#blackwomen) began trending on Twitter.

People are saying thank you to black women, online you saw it, it must have been nice to see black womens contributions finally recognized, Noah told Sloan.

Yes! Weve been through so much! Sloan shot back. And youre welcome, white people. But lets be honest, we didnt do it for you, we did it for ourselves. No black woman cast her vote going, This ones for Scott!' she said as the audience cracked up.

So if you really want to thank us, how about you change the laws making it easier for us to vote, or sing our praises by giving us raises. Or at the very least cancel winter. You know only white people like snow.

makes this really cringey
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FLUFFYGERM posted...

so does it mean that CNN piece about how black women are saving the world...needs to be redacted to include this fact?

These facts were known at the time. The media loves these kinds of narratives because it allows them to pat themselves on the back for being progressive.

You'll notice none of the people crediting black people for thwarting Moore were blaming black people's no-show for Trump. That, somehow, was blamed on white women.
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Same thing happened in the La governors race between David Vitter and Jon Bel Edwards...everyone in the state hated JBE, but Vitter was REALLY shitty. Republican voters will vote for the lesser of two evils when presented with bad options.
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Balrog0 posted...

yeah, I liked season 1 scott a lot

I did too, but I also loved the U.K. version. That kind of comedy doesn't work as well with American audiences, so they had to change the tone of the show and soften Michael's character.
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Balrog0 posted...

here's what you don't get, these conveniently timed character smears aren't going to work any more

I absolutely get that, crying wolf only works so many times, and if there was anything to the allegations, it would have come out fifteen years ago when he was getting kicked off the bench in Alabama. Which is another reason he was a weak candidate. He lost because he did nothing to defend himself, and many take silence as admission of guilt.
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The Admiral posted...

These facts were known at the time. The media loves these kinds of narratives because it allows them to pat themselves on the back for being progressive.

You'll notice none of the people crediting black people for thwarting Moore were blaming black people's no-show for Trump. That, somehow, was blamed on white women.

I mean, to be clear for myself at least, I would blame the candidate and their campaign operation in either case. I am trying to be facetious for saying thank you to white alabama here.

The Admiral posted...

I did too, but I also loved the U.K. version. That kind of comedy doesn't work as well with American audiences, so they had to change the tone of the show and soften Michael's character.

yeah, he definitely changes from someone who is legitimately ignorant and terrible into something more like a typical sitcom dad. Though in a few spots throughout the show they still do a good job of showing how awful he is.

I'm almost done with my second re-watch of the office this year lol
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/

Washington Post saw very little mitigation from 2008 and 2012 as far as Republicans were concerned, so it seems that the actual mitigating factor was the overwhelming turnout of black voters and younger people being allowed to vote this time (30% for Moore, as opposed to 15% for Obama in 2012). That's what won the election for Jones.
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Alucard188 posted...

Washington Post saw very little mitigation from 2008 and 2012 as far as Republicans were concerned, so it seems that the actual mitigating factor was the overwhelming turnout of black voters and younger people being allowed to vote this time

Fully 96 percent of African Americans supported Jones, similar to President Obamas 95 percent support among this group in 2012. But Jones fared much better than Obama among white voters, garnering 30 percent of their votes, twice the 15 percent who voted for Obama. Jones made particularly large gains among white women and those with college degrees.

idk it sounds to me like they are saying what I said about how it was white voters and not black voters that made a difference
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Y'all want a pat on the back for making an obvious choice? And the dude still only lost by what, 1%?
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Trying to give a race sole "credit" for a political win in an election is fucking dumb. But whatever, whatever gets people voting Dem.
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Balrog0 posted...

Alucard188 posted...

Washington Post saw very little mitigation from 2008 and 2012 as far as Republicans were concerned, so it seems that the actual mitigating factor was the overwhelming turnout of black voters and younger people being allowed to vote this time

Fully 96 percent of African Americans supported Jones, similar to President Obamas 95 percent support among this group in 2012. But Jones fared much better than Obama among white voters, garnering 30 percent of their votes, twice the 15 percent who voted for Obama. Jones made particularly large gains among white women and those with college degrees.

idk it sounds to me like they are saying what I said about how it was white voters and not black voters that made a difference

Yeah, nothing in the exit polls refute what the dude in the OP is saying. More white people voted Dem this time, as opposed to 2008, 2012, and 2016. That the percentage of people voting as young, college bred millennials essentially doubled in the 4 years since the last election cycle, leads me to believe that they were more or less legally unable to vote last time, due to being too young. The young liberal is slowly supplanting the old conservative. It's why I find that the people crowing about 'black victory in Alabama' to be a bit disingenuous, because yes, they did have a strong hand in defeating Roy Moore, but it was far less than the erosion of the Republican base in Alabama, due to myriad of things.
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r4X0r posted...

He lost because he did nothing to defend himself, and many take silence as admission of guilt.

LMAO what!? He repeatedly denied the allegations, his surrogates were everywhere questioning the legitimacy of the accusers, he and his lawyers demanded to have the year book "checked" by a handwriting expert, etc. He also eventually got back the backing of the GOP funding and had Trump himself ask for people to vote for him in both a speech and with a robocall.

He lost because he is a piece of shit with bigoted ideas and allegations of him being a creep, as well as many Alabamians hating him well before all those things came out. Stop trying to blame his loss on "well Moore didn't deny the allegations enough". That's a crock of shit
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One contributing factor is that the expected percentage of people voting was 20-25 percent of the voting population while about 38% of the population voted last Tuesday.

http://whnt.com/2017/12/12/alabama-voter-turnout-far-surpasses-expectations-reaching-well-over-1-million-voters/
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