Board 8 > College Football Ladder Contest Week 9

(+) Yeah! (+)

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose. You cannot pick an underdog of more than 7 points.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one game and move the line 7 points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Pick one game, please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U line by 25 points, creating two sets of mutually-exclusive but not all-inclusive picks. If any of these picks is a winner, you pass.

Level 7: Pick one straight-up winner from each of the ten FBS conferences. You may select no more than two double-digit favorites and no more than one of these can be a favorite of at least 20 points.

Level 7:
kevwaffles
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 6:
5tarscream

Level 5:
Paratroopa1

Level 4:
KCF0107

Level 3:
jcgamer107

Marquee games:
Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ West Virginia (O/U 73.5)
Penn State (+6.5) @ Ohio State (O/U 55)
TCU (-6.5) @ Iowa State (O/U 49)
North Carolina State (+7.5) @ Notre Dame (O/U 60.5)
Mississippi State (-1) @ Texas A&M (O/U 56)

Even though I normally use the AP Rankings over the Coaches' Poll for determining who is "ranked" and thus the top choices, I couldn't pass up MSU-A&M for, what, Clemson-GT? Maybe WSU-UA?
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GT used to have a way of sneaking up on Clemson many times before, but we haven't done it in a few years and they're going to be on guard now.
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Actually, the line on WSU-UA is surprisingly close. I can't help but wonder if I'm walking into a trap...

Level 7:
ACC: Miami (20.5-point favorite)
American: SMU
Big Ten: Iowa
Big 12: Texas
C-USA: Marshall (17-point favorite)
MAC: Northern Illinois
MWC: San Diego State
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: South Carolina
Sun Belt: Appalachian State

Still, there weren't really any good options in the ACC or C-USA, so looks like I need to avoid the typical Pac-12 upset.
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So to be clear. For level 6. I would add 15 to both the + and - and if either is right I advance so if it's -5 favourite I make it -20 or +10?. If the O/U was 26 I would win if it's less than 1 or more than 51?
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-5 would be -20 or -10 (for the underdog), but yes

I might as well pick 3 games at random, then randomly pick over or under on each, and it would give me a better chance than if I were to pick them manually, which I'll still do cause I'm an idiot
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OK thanks Para. I move the +/- 15 points in the direction I want and the O/U 25 each way. Cool
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Level 6:
Stanford (-6) Oregon St (+36)
U (34.5) O (84.5)

I hope this is the right way to do it.
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There is no way that line should be Stanford -6 after pleasing it 15 points

Yeah what you did was tease the lines 15 points, which makes them both piss easy: what you ACTUALLY get is:

Stanford (-36) OR Oregon State (+6)

MUCH more difficult!

Level 5:

Penn State (+0.5)

I just stopped when I got here. I don't really know if Penn State is going to win this game, but taking them straight up seems better than any other option I'm going to get.

You can only move it one way?
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Like I can't move it Oregon St favour it has to be towards Stanford or not at all?
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It's 15 points AGAINST your favor for BOTH teams

So you get Stanford -36 AND Oregon State +6 - if either of these results occur, you advance

No you don't get to move it 15 points in your favor for either team, that would make it hilariously easy to pass

The whole point is for the spread or O/U to be way off, regardless of the direction. You have the concept for the O/U correct. It's the same thing for the spread. You're just getting confused because of how they're written.

Imagine the spreads as if they're +-15 both for one team. They have to cover the harder one, or fail to cover the easier one.
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Guess I need to do this today, or at least make sure there aren't G5 games I want before tonight.
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Level 4 (already teased)
Penn St. (+12.5) at Ohio St
N.C. St. (+13.5) at Notre Dame
Minnesota (+13) at Iowa
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ACC: FSU (-4)
American: SMU (-9.5)
Big Ten: Wisconsin (-26.5)
Big 12: TCU (-7)
C-USA: Florida Atlantic (-7)
MAC: Northern Illinois (-7.5)
MWC: San Diego State (-9.5)
Pac-12: Washington (-18)
SEC: Kentucky (-3.5)
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina (-8)

I listed all the spreads I found mostly for my own convenience, but also in case some of them flip.

A lot of the G5 conferences really don't have many options without spending a double-digit or taking an underdog. You'd need at least 3 conferences all with double-digit spreads in conference play to pick an underdog on the spread anywhere, so you otherwise need both a largely predictable week and some luck in the double-digit picks to avoid upsets. That or be incredibly bold in some picks.

(And that's assuming I'm remembering that exception correctly and that it's still applicable. It's not written currently.)
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kevwaffles posted...

The whole point is for the spread or O/U to be way off, regardless of the direction. You have the concept for the O/U correct. It's the same thing for the spread. You're just getting confused because of how they're written.

Imagine the spreads as if they're +-15 both for one team. They have to cover the harder one, or fail to cover the easier one.

Ok thanks.

I'll leave the pick as is for this week (with the correct numbers) then next week maybe i can take a proper look and pick a better match.
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That Stanford/Oregon State pick, barring something crazy happening, is going to have Oregon State cover AND hit the under, holy shit

Well for all of your confusion you pretty much crushed that.
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So to be clear I passed this level?
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5tarscream posted...

So to be clear I passed this level?

Yeah

Sweet thanks for the help. I'm so glad I don't have to go through that again for the rest of the season.
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kevwaffles posted...

ACC: FSU (-4)
American: SMU (-9.5)
Big Ten: Wisconsin (-26.5)
Big 12: TCU (-7)
C-USA: Florida Atlantic (-7)
MAC: Northern Illinois (-7.5)
MWC: San Diego State (-9.5)
Pac-12: Washington (-18)
SEC: Kentucky (-3.5)
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina (-8)

I listed all the spreads I found mostly for my own convenience, but also in case some of them flip.

A lot of the G5 conferences really don't have many options without spending a double-digit or taking an underdog. You'd need at least 3 conferences all with double-digit spreads in conference play to pick an underdog on the spread anywhere, so you otherwise need both a largely predictable week and some luck in the double-digit picks to avoid upsets. That or be incredibly bold in some picks.

(And that's assuming I'm remembering that exception correctly and that it's still applicable. It's not written currently.)

Oh, yes, you're right! I forgot about the safety exception I made when I was reconstructing from scratch after the unfortunate purge.

Yes, you're absolutely right. If at least three conferences have no games with single-digit spreads, or at least two conferences have no games with spreads under 20 points, you're allowed to pick an underdog to merely cover the spread in one of those conferences. Though I fully expect that won't be an issue outside of conference championship week. Hmm, now I want to speculate...

ACC: Too early to speculate. Clemson-NC State is at the latter, so that game could go either way, and that changes who plays in the game.
American: Well, the East winner will probably host, so this could be a double-digit spread. Probably shouldn't be one, though, so that might be a decent pick for the underdog cover if needed.
Big Ten: I doubt this will be a double-digit spread.
Big 12: Too early to speculate; half the conference still control their own destinies. Let's try again after Saturday, since the loser of OK State-WVU loses control of their own destiny and assuming TCU beats ISU, the Cyclones would too.
C-USA: Marshall will likely be a double-digit favorite, possibly even a 20+, but they only need to get upset once at the right time to miss it entirely--FAU hasn't lost a conference game yet, either.
MAC: See Big 12. Both divisions have a tie for first place and a third-place team one game back that has yet to play either first-place team. So who knows who will be in that game.
MWC: I don't foresee a double-digit favorite, no matter who makes it.
Pac-12: See Big 12 and MAC. No one is unbeaten in conference, but half of them have just one loss-- most of them to one of the one-loss teams in the opposite division, with the few that lost in division having done so to teams with no other conference wins. So while certain teams are at disadvantages if the triangles come down 1-1-1, all six control their own destinies.
SEC: Alabama always has the potential to be a double-digit favorite, even against Georgia, but the "neutral site" of the SEC Championship Game favors Georgia so maybe the Bulldogs can manage to only be single-digit underdogs.
Sun Belt: Lacks a conference championship game, so there will still be a full slate of games.
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Whelp, I'm out for the week.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not expecting great things from FSU at this point, but it's freaking Boston College for crying out loud.

You don't lose 35-3 to Boston freaking College.
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Level 3:
North Carolina State @ Notre Dame UNDER 60.5
Penn State @ Ohio State OVER 55
Michigan St @ Northwestern OVER 41.5
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Things started out well for me. Hopefully I don't regret taking Minnesota over Wake Forest
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Save
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oh my god

not only did i finally pass, i went 3/3. what sorcery is this.
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Jesus fuck I just realized Penn State fucked me

El bumpo
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Bump for Level 7
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It'll be up later today.
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Level 7: WMU
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Game starts soon and didn't want to miss it. inb4 I lose before the topic is even up
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I'm gonna go with Toledo anyway, but MAC does have a lot of Tuesday and Wednesday games in the remaining weeks, not just this one. Level 7 is gonna be tough if we can't pick those games.
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Level 7:
ACC: Clemson
American: Navy
Big 12: TCU
Big Ten: Penn State
C-USA: FAU
MAC: Toledo
MW: UNLV
Pac-12: Washington (-17.5)
SEC: Miss State (-31.5)
Sun Belt: Applachian State
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Probably won't have a chance to post that even if you get it in time for tonight, so consider that my Week 10 picks in full.
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kevwaffles posted...

I'm gonna go with Toledo anyway, but MAC does have a lot of Tuesday and Wednesday games in the remaining weeks, not just this one. Level 7 is gonna be tough if we can't pick those games.

Posting your next week's picks in the previous week's topic if I'm running late, the way you did, is always an option.
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Level 5:

Indiana +6.5

None of these lines really spoke to me... I was fully prepared to bet big against Iowa State, but honestly, I expected they'd be about 5 point favorites... instead, they're actually 3 point underdogs. I was expecting to tease WVU up to like -2.5 but instead they're *already* set at -3.5. So never fuckin' mind that noise.