Board 8 > Fire Emblem Heroes Discussion Topic Part 10: The Black Knight Approacheth

(+) Yeah! (+)

Target: Azura (Pull order: All Green, Single Blue, Single Red, Single Colourless)

Budget = 50 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 25.57%
AvgNumFiveStars = 0.94

Budget = 100 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 46.78%
AvgNumFiveStars = 1.97

Budget = 200 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 73.48%
AvgNumFiveStars = 4.08

Target: Shigure (Pull order: All Blue, Single Green, Single Red, Single Colourless)

Budget = 50 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 23.25%
AvgNumFiveStars = 0.68

Budget = 100 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 43.57%
AvgNumFiveStars = 1.45

Budget = 200 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 70.70%
AvgNumFiveStars = 3.05

Target: Olivia (Pull order: All Colourless, Single Green, Single Blue, Single Red)

Budget = 50 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 23.22%
AvgNumFiveStars = 0.64 (Includes 5* Staff users)

Budget = 100 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 43.61%
AvgNumFiveStars = 1.37 (Includes 5* Staff users)

Budget = 200 Orbs
Iterations = 100000
SuccessRate = 71.07%
AvgNumFiveStars = 2.87 (Includes 5* Staff users)

I assumed only Oscar went down to 4*.

As usual, Green focus units are easy mode. Even sharing though Azura shares a colour with Inigo, she is still easier to get Olivia or Shigure and on top of that you average more 5*s during the pursuit of Azura. Shigure and Olivia are about equally difficult but Olivia is in colourless hell.
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Looking at the datamine...

Apparently there's going to be quests involving Fir, Fredrick, and Sully. So make sure to spare one the fate of being turned into feathers/SI.

Also I'm not sure if they're accurate, but the stats for the dancers has been revealed.

Some received more love than others.
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Thanks TRE. As expected, pulling green looks like the way to go
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

As usual, Green focus units are easy mode

What does this mean? Do green focus units tend to have higher percentages of being pulled?

@Yankees, I'm not sure if you're still playing Duel Links or have been following it, but GX just got released today and they are giving out a TON of gems, so if you're a fan of the series, now is a good time to jump back in!

If only IS were as generous with their orbs.
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It's due to how the character generation system works. The listed rates in the game are across all orbs but the game gives you hints regarding the colour of a unit behind an orb. Using conditional probability, it can be determined what the rarity rates are on a per colour basis.

Since there are fewer green 5*, 4* and 3* units than the other colours, when a green focus unit exists you are more likely to get a green focus unit when sniping green orbs than the the other colours when sniping the corresponding orbs.

Also I wasn't being 100% serious when I said Greens are easy mode. Your odds are slightly better at getting the focus unit you want compared to Blue or Colourless but it's not a massive difference.
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barreldragon88 posted...

What does this mean? Do green focus units tend to have higher percentages of being pulled?

yes. all focus units appear equally often in summoning sessions, but green orbs are rarer, so more of them end up being focus units. the opposite is true for red.

Dark Young Link posted...

Apparently there's going to be quests involving Fir, Fredrick, and Sully. So make sure to spare one the fate of being turned into feathers/SI.

normally when they have quests like that they give you one for free. though this time it's a bit of a different format, with no quests to KO an enemy with the 3 askr lords. i have both a Fir and a Sully pulled at 4* with +atk -HP so i'd use those even if we got one free. but my only Fredericks are 3* +res, one being -atk and the other being -def, so i think i'd rather use the free one if we get one.
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I'm actually a bit happy Fir is one of the heroes. A long while back, I actually pulled a 5* Fir on her banner. This gives me an excuse to use her for a bit(I also used her as bait once for a defense win).

Fresh outta 4* Sullys so she's going to be slightly more annoying to level. Thankfully Warriors maps will make leveling her far less painful that it would normally be.
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Oscar was demoted to 4* as predicted by many people.

And right away I pull an Azura form green. I'm not used to luck like that.
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My free pull was a green 5* too.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/278706978220408833/363219606707634188/Screenshot_2017-09-29-02-03-54.png

I mean hey whatever, not gonna turn him down. Nice to get the would've-been-frustrating-otherwise off-banner pull out of the way from the get-go, I suppose.
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Now the first world problem delimma....

Do I continue pulling colorless for Olivia(I told myself I'd spend 20-30 orbs and stop for the time being)?

Do I try for Inigo?

Or do I take the one dancer I did get and stay away from the banner?
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Spent 100 orbs, just about half my stash.

Azura + Atk - hp
Shigure +Atk - def

A couple Barsts, and Shanna are always welcome. Plus speed Raven is kinda neat too. I got what I wanted, and am done with the banner.

Barrel, I stopped playing. I realized I can really only keep up with one mobile game. I haven't been playing Breath of the Wild as much as I should be lately and need to fix that. Not enough time, but glad to hear about the additions
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Damn, I just used up all my orbs trying to get Inigo, but barely any green stones showed up. I got a Delthea though, so that's neat I guess.
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i spent all my orbs and got... Takumi. -spd +res. do i keep that or the -atk +HP <_<
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DYL, my advice is to just stop for now. You have a bonus character for next week in Azura. The banner is here all month. Better to wait til the end now to see if Halloween or Genealogy is worth your interest and not feel screwed over if Halloween Elise or something shows up
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Xuxon posted...

i spent all my orbs and got... Takumi. -spd +res. do i keep that or the -atk +HP <_<

No blue or green orbs? Eventually, there will be someone worth the Close Counter. Maybe minus speed is better? He's not going to be doubling at neutral speed
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i didn't want blues. i was going green and colorless. got mostly colorless. at least i got a Matthew and my first Clarine and Setsuna. also a -atk Fae, so i gotta decide which Falchion (or Celica) gets her too.

i've been thinking about feeding Takumi to Spring Camilla forever now. i think i'll just feed the new one cause i'm lazy and probably never going to use him anyway now with Lyn and Innes.
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Thank goodness, got Azura with 20 orbs. 165 orbs left, now I can keep saving for Halloween!
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Woo third try netted me a +Spd -Res Azura! I don't even know which dancers here are the main attractions other than her, so for once, I can sit on 17 orbs with a brand new banner and be perfectly content waiting for something else.
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Poked my head in for the freebee, saw no greens but chose Blue and got Shigure. Makes me 2/2 with new characters added in as LT units since I got Charlotte from the bride banner. Well, as long as we don't try and pretend Inigo and Laslow aren't the same character.

Sadly, Shigure is +HP/-Spd, so it kinda ruins the idea of giving BoL3 and the seal to him so he heals as much as the basic healing+imbue does.
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Yeah I think it's probably best if I save my orbs for now. Just the excitement of getting something good right away was getting to me for a moment there.

Apparently my Azura is +Att -Spd. The bane is unfortunate, but at least the boon will help her out on occasion.

Training her up.... she really doesn't take physical hits well, even neutral ones. Passable res though, so TA should really help her tank those Reinhardts. Granted dancers(Well singer in her case) should mostly avoid battle....
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Currently at around 80 orbs plunked on this and 4% pity rate-- I've been drawing greens and the occasional colorless if I'm by a pity breakpoint because I wouldn't mind the Olivia.

I know I'm going to get someone off banner or inigo though.
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60 orbs in, no 5* yet, got 4 sheenas in a row at one point. Go me
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Have been trying to color snipe for Soren and Mist ended up pity breaking me. Ah well, I didn't have her and now Soren is the only Tellius crew member left.
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Soren is a four star character. Probably better to pull for Azura and you may pick him up along the way
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My haul after ~40 orbs:

5* Inigo
5* Julia
5* Soren
4* Camilla
4* Titania
4* Seth
4* Jagen
3* Barst
3* Nino
3* Cecilia

I managed to pull three 5* while the rate was at 3%, and i think Soren was my first non-free summon. His nature is worse than the 4* I currently have, so i'll be merging him when he's upgraded.

Julia was promptly merged because of the crappy nature. She is quite the beast.

I merged a couple Cecilia's into my +Atk/-Def one to make some space and got another in the process. Still no +Spd, though. She is getting quite scary, and with the number of Nino's i have, the game really wants me to give Cecilia Gronnblade+.

Too bad Camilla is outclassed by Cherche. I feel a little bad upgrading her only to sac her.

I now have three Titania's. Not sure if i should just merge them all.

Inigo is +Spd/-HP i think, so i'm guessing he wants TA and Moonbow?

The fact i got three 5* without a boost to the pity rate leads me to believe i was pulling during a time frame where the game was rolling very favorably. How likely was this to have been the case?
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Grimmer posted...

Soren is a four star character. Probably better to pull for Azura and you may pick him up along the way

I think I'll be skipping this banner for that reason actually. It has two Green 5* which would get in the way of Soren! I also don't really use dancers so yeah.
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My phone told me I could get a free pull, so I tried Performing Arts.

Ogma, Matthew, Setsuna, Robin, and Subaki. Good to see you again too, game.
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88 orbs down, 5* Abel to reset the pity rate right at the end. Good, good.
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It could be worse. You could've gotten Shigure.
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I have to remember it's harder to get a response in here on double SP days >_>
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@barreldragon88, Titania doesn't have much to offer in terms of skill inheritance so you don't lose anything by merging her. Unless you plan to 5* her at some point. I have a +Spd 4* I've been considering merging into my 5* one that's -Spd. Part of me is thinking it is time to start stockpiling feathers to get high level merges on Eirika/Soren/Tharja since I have some 4* copies of each.

As for Inigo, Moonbow is a safe special for him. His resistance doesn't stand out, and shouldn't be fighting much so the low charge makes sense to me. TA is probably fine, but it's a pretty rare skill and I think I'd hold it for a character meant to brawl. I kinda wish his speed stat was worse so he'd be able to run a TA Raven build better.

The time frame matter in the way that you think it does. Sometimes the RNG is friendly and sometimes cruel. The system timestamp may be used as a seed for the RNG, but there's no sense you can really make out of it.
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Yea, I don't know if Titania will be 5*-worthy down the road. She has niche use, and since I have two extra copies and am always tight on barrack space, I'm most likely just going to merge and keep her at 4*. Cecilia, on the other hand, is very 5*-worthy, but the fact I have so many spares of her makes it much more practical to not upgrade her and just merge.

I was very tempted to continue summoning given the sheer luck I had this morning. I wish I had orbs to spare to experiment with, but I also didn't want another Mathilda incident. I'll hold out to see what banners come out within the next month. There's a pretty good chance I'll go for this banner again before it goes away.
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my ladyfriend pulled mathilda on the neph banner

and a second elincia on the same 5 pull. lol
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Titania has Guard, which is pretty nice. Don't know who I'd put it on though.
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Because I appreciate anti-meta units:

https://i.redd.it/1kdp3dpt7voz.png
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Nice. Cancel Affinity on BowLyn still isn't that popular.
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Wasn't mine, just found it on the FEH reddit. Would be nice to have though!
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Guard is ok, but I can't really think of a home for it either. There are too many strong B skills and you have to give up too much to run it. It would make for a nice seal though.

That was the first build I thought of when Indigo was announced. I only have one Setsuna for Bowbreaker, and have been giving thought to building a Fae to do the same kind of thing. Cecilia is the only character I have capable of dealing with Lyn on the enemy's phase.

The cost of Cancel Affinity is pretty high on Lyn. It opens the door for the distant counter users to beat her. I think it only makes sense with Firesweep bow and that's hardly affordable. I'd rather see more of those building the arena honestly. At least my blade mages can kill that version.
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Anyone give Fury to BK? He would appreciate the boost outside of Aaamaa Emblem. I would give him Fire Boost if I had it, but I don't.
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I don't think you can go wrong with Fury on him if you have it to spare. His default skill is also fine.

I used the double SP to finish the BK today. Took him, Hector, Tana and Effie into arena assault and hit my new high score of 4870. Starting off with an armor team appeared to give me easier matches. A lot of distant counter armors, but zero Bow Lyns and only one Reinhardt. Armors are pretty much free wins, and the last map was literally 4 swords. Not a problem for Lukas and Valter.
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Current score: 4812

Rank: 8992/9560 to advance to tier 20

I'm starting to get worried here.
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You're done, bud.
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Oh I was at 4808 and I just fell back into Rank 18 territory now.

Eh, whatever, it's just feathers. I never worry about the Rank 18-20 disparity since it's all 4 orbs anyway.
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I wonder why an armor team would give you easier matches. I would think the opposite would happen given they're worth quite a bit in the scoring.
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because you end up facing less horses. though when you do end up facing them, they'll be a lot tougher cause they'll be heavily merged.
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Horse teams have less BST so you're less likely to face them, and more likely to fight higher BST armor teams. But yeah, when you do face a cavalry team, it will be merged up. Which is fine if I only have to fight them a couple times per run.
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MrSmartGuy posted...

4808

MrSmartGuy posted...

fell back into Rank 18

Well RIP me then. Unless everyone somehow stops getting 4 more points than that.
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So I need to pick my poison... Do I want to face tougher cavalry teams but less cavalry teams overall or do I want to face more cavalry teams that are easier to deal with. I've been building up more weapons against cavalry, but I do want to give starting with an armor team a try because I never use an actual armor team in AA, only sticking Effie in somewhere where I need a tank. This will also give me an opportunity to rank higher.
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I'm 4830 and I'm 5340/9570. Is there really that much of a difference in 18 points?
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There's a lot of clumping up in the high scores. That's just a result of how the scoring works.
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