Current Events > Americans are dying younger, saving corporations billions

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/americans-are-dying-younger-saving-corporations-billions

Steady improvements in American life expectancy have stalled, and more Americans are dying at younger ages. But for companies straining under the burden of their pension obligations, the distressing trend could have a grim upside: If people don’t end up living as long as they were projected to just a few years ago, their employers ultimately won’t have to pay them as much in pension and other lifelong retirement benefits.

In 2015, the American death rate—the age-adjusted share of Americans dying—rose slightly for the first time since 1999. And over the last two years, at least 12 large companies, from Verizon to General Motors, have said recent slips in mortality improvement have led them to reduce their estimates for how much they could owe retirees by upward of a combined $9.7 billion, according to a Bloomberg analysis of company filings. “Revised assumptions indicating a shortened longevity,” for instance, led Lockheed Martin to adjust its estimated retirement obligations downward by a total of about $1.6 billion for 2015 and 2016, it said in its most recent annual report.

Mortality trends are only a small piece of the calculation companies make when estimating what they’ll owe retirees, and indeed, other factors actually led Lockheed’s pension obligations to rise last year. Variables such as asset returns, salary levels, and health care costs can cause big swings in what companies expect to pay retirees. The fact that people are dying slightly younger won't cure corporate America’s pension woes—but the fact that companies are taking it into account shows just how serious the shift in America’s mortality trends is.

It's not just corporate pensions, either; the shift also affects Social Security, the government’s program for retirees. The most recent data available “show continued mortality reductions that are generally smaller than those projected,” according to a July report from the program’s chief actuary. Longevity gains fell short of what was projected in last year’s report, leading to a slight improvement in the program’s financial outlook.

“Historically, mortality rates annually have tended to come down year-over-year,” says R. Dale Hall, managing director of research at the Society of Actuaries. The professional association compiles mortality data that many private pension plans use in their projections. “There really has been a little bit of slowdown in mortality improvement in the United States,” Hall says.

Absent a war or an epidemic, it's unusual and alarming for life expectancies in developed countries to stop improving, let alone to worsen. “Mortality is sort of the tip of the iceberg,” says Laudan Aron, a demographer and senior fellow at the Urban Institute. “It really is a reflection of a lot of underlying conditions of life.” The falling trajectory of American life expectancies, especially when compared to those in some other wealthy countries, should be “as urgent a national issue as any other that’s on our national agenda,” she says.

Actuaries use two main factors to project death rates into the future: They start with current mortality levels—the percentages of people who die at a given age—and then make predictions about how those percentages might change with developments such as new medical treatments or changes to smoking or obesity rates. For instance, the widespread prescribing of cholesterol-lowering statins in the 1990s was “a huge driver of mortality improvement,” says Eric Keener, senior partner and chief actuary at Aon’s U.S. retirement practice. If medical science produces new treatments for Alzheimer’s disease or cancer, they could have similar effects.

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Our line of work kind of encourages this. We have a lot of retirees who will come back a couple months a year to work outages at power plants to make the big bucks real quick and these places are really bad for your health if you're not careful. I'm like the only dude who actually uses his respirator most of the time. Oh well, at least our pension is really doing well.
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The same type of incentive system exists in socialized healthcare where the government needs to employ a ton of doctors and nurses and hospital staff. If people get healthier and stop going to the doctor, that sector of the economy tanks.
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There are still companies that offer pension?
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Transcendentia posted...

The same type of incentive system exists in socialized healthcare where the government needs to employ a ton of doctors and nurses and hospital staff. If people get healthier and stop going to the doctor, that sector of the economy tanks.

How does this differ from if people get healthier under a private system?
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Don't our governments have much, much bigger issues with their pension systems than corporations, which have largely switched to 401k-style things rather than defined benefits?
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Antifar posted...

Transcendentia posted...

The same type of incentive system exists in socialized healthcare where the government needs to employ a ton of doctors and nurses and hospital staff. If people get healthier and stop going to the doctor, that sector of the economy tanks.

How does this differ from if people get healthier under a private system?

If people get healthier under a private system, the market will shrink gradually until that sector is no longer needed. Whereas governments become very dependent on things like traffic violations, parking tickets, gas taxes, etc.
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Every country with higher life expectancy than the US doesn't come close to the size of the US population. We're ranked in the 30's but only ~3 years from the top.

This article is straight fear mongering.
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DevsBro posted...

There are still companies that offer pension?

Government jobs
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DevsBro posted...

There are still companies that offer pension?

Yes
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voldothegr8 posted...

Every country with higher life expectancy than the US doesn't come close to the size of the US population. We're ranked in the 30's but only ~3 years from the top.

This article is straight fear mongering.

Only 3 years? 3 years is a LOT of time on the Life Expetancty scale.

Countries will spend 10 years trying to get 1 year of Life Expectancy improvement.
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Proudclad I never gave you permission to quote me in your sig, but I will allow it

clearaflagrantj posted...

Proudclad I never gave you permission to quote me in your sig, but I will allow it

can i also sig this
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DevsBro posted...

There are still companies that offer pension?

The wealthiest of the wealthiest give pensions to select employees.

There are also military pensions.
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Big surprise. everybody is doped up on what their doctor gave them (so it's safe!!1!1!!).
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Transcendentia posted...

clearaflagrantj posted...

Proudclad I never gave you permission to quote me in your sig, but I will allow it

can i also sig this

Yes

shitty diets are helping with population control, though.

I just hope more people start getting cremated because fatties be taking up too much plot space, nahmean?
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This is fearmongering.
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RickyTheBAWSE posted...

fatties be taking up too much plot space, nahmean?

that fat decays and their skeleton isn't much bigger
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RickyTheBAWSE posted...

shitty diets are helping with population control, though.

I just hope more people start getting cremated because fatties be taking up too much plot space, nahmean?

http://nypost.com/2017/04/26/overly-obese-body-sets-crematorium-on-fire/amp/

clearaflagrantj posted...

RickyTheBAWSE posted...

shitty diets are helping with population control, though.

I just hope more people start getting cremated because fatties be taking up too much plot space, nahmean?

http://nypost.com/2017/04/26/overly-obese-body-sets-crematorium-on-fire/amp/

never would've imagined trans fats could have the potential to be weaponized like napalm. jeez.
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I wonder if this is because of cancer
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Thanks Trump for making America great again
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RickyTheBAWSE posted...

clearaflagrantj posted...

RickyTheBAWSE posted...

shitty diets are helping with population control, though.

I just hope more people start getting cremated because fatties be taking up too much plot space, nahmean?

http://nypost.com/2017/04/26/overly-obese-body-sets-crematorium-on-fire/amp/

never would've imagined trans fats could have the potential to be weaponized like napalm. jeez.

maybe when we go to war with north korea we can just use a bunch of fatties as cannon balls
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darkphoenix181 posted...

I wonder if this is because of cancer

As I type this, I'm actually getting my clothes ready to head to a funeral. My uncle died of lung cancer and hadn't smoked a cigarette since the 70's.

Last year my grandmother died of stomach cancer, I currently have another uncle hospitalized as of last week from it, and there's more. I have cancer on both sides of the family, so I'm kinda worried.

My girlfriend's family also has it, so yeah. Cancer is pretty huge. So many different types.
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Win-win?
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RickyTheBAWSE posted...

shitty diets are helping with population control, though.

Imagine all the soap we'll make.
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darkphoenix181 posted...

I wonder if this is because of cancer

Throw in heart disease too
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DevsBro posted...

There are still companies that offer pension?

Most places I've been shift to things like 401K and company stock options for those exiting the work force due to age. A straight up pension plan doesn't seem common anywhere outside of public service jobs (like policing).
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oh boy
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the FDA is inconsistent and easily swayed by money. some things pass as acceptable that shouldn't, and things that should often end up banned.

there's plenty distrust in Monsanto and Dupont seeds as well. their ethics have been in question for many years now. seed experimentation and all... that shit grows to be our food.
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Wherethisfeom posted...

Kinda surprising. I thought our living conditions were improving

They are, but obesity is skyrocketing as well.

And it's ridiculous that corporations are responsible for healthcare directly to begin with.
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Its not like the corporations are killing people. People need to stop being fatasses or shooting heroin.
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Transcendentia posted...

The same type of incentive system exists in socialized healthcare where the government needs to employ a ton of doctors and nurses and hospital staff. If people get healthier and stop going to the doctor, that sector of the economy tanks.

B-but, socialism!

Seriously though, I sort of see what you're saying, but I'm not sure I agree. Basically, your argument is that as people get healthier, less doctors and nurses are needed, therefore there are less people paying taxes, which means lower tax receipts for the government and less for them to spend, right?

My contention with this argument is that:

1. These changes don't occur overnight. They happen over a long period and can be anticipated in advance to a certain extent. You don't just fire a bunch of doctors and nurses that go on to unemployment. What happens instead is that you tweak your training policies. OK, we're not going to need as many nurses, so let's train fewer (although I doubt that's the case in many places at the moment).
2. The economy is not static. Other sectors can expand or contract as needed. Again, these things don't happen overnight and can be anticipated by government, businesses and individuals and affected by government policy.

Also, there are obviously benefits to a healthier populace that can cancel this out at the very least. Admittedly, there are potential issues too (e.g. with people living longer, you need to provide more of end-of-life care), but I think having a healthier populace is a good "problem" to have.

Another argument against UHC that I can sympathize with a bit more is that when people's healthcare is being paid for, they have less incentive to take responsibility for their health. However, when you look at the health of the US population compared to other countries with UHC, I'm not sure that holds much water either. I think there are a lot of other factors there, e.g. attitudes to health in a society, poverty, lack of education, etc.

Medz2017 posted...

Thanks Trump for making America great again

Trump and his novel techniques to not have seniors outnumber the youth.
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faizan_faizan posted...

Win-win?

...um. This is... ok?

Medz2017 posted...

Thanks Trump for making America great again

Trump and his novel techniques to not have seniors outnumber the youth.
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I need to emmigrate within the next 10 years
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