Board 8 > A Feast for Crows Mafia 12: Words are Wind

(+) Yeah! (+)

Leo3L posted...

How does scum win if Nana is scum and gets lynched last day?

what?
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Wait, are you asking what scum's strategy would've been if Nana got lynched yesterday?
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My Immortal posted...

Wait, are you asking what scum's strategy would've been if Nana got lynched yesterday?

Yes. It could be an argument against you and Nana together as scum. Your alignments would still be up for debate, but it would mean logically we lynch Red.
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Leo3L posted...

Leo3L posted...

Why don't you think puns could be scum any longer nana?

At THIS point, for Puns to be scum, his scumbuddy has to be you.

Based on Day 1 votals with KBM and Death town flips, if Puns is scum and you are not, then we are talking about scum gambling hard on him not being lynched at the end of the day with only him as the sole scum vote saving him from being lynched, and given how late you moved it would have been a huge gambit unless pre-planned. I don't see scum taking that risk when they have two scum on fellow Puns and a third idling, WITH the lynch leader literally choosing not to vote. This would have been even riskier given we know now Scare's intention was to lynch Puns.

[7] FFD: red, death, (Leo), KBM, Scare, Jeff, puns, Leo
[5] puns: Shad, Stan, Han, (dowolf), Nana, Scare2

Players [town/scum/?]
FFD: 4-0-3
Puns: 2-2-1

Red could theoretically be the scum partner here, but I think risking Chris staying completely away was substantial.
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That is a fairly mind boggling reason to call Puns town
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Nevermind, it's fine
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Leo3L posted...

My Immortal posted...

Wait, are you asking what scum's strategy would've been if Nana got lynched yesterday?

Yes. It could be an argument against you and Nana together as scum. Your alignments would still be up for debate, but it would mean logically we lynch Red.

Was Nana ever actually going to be lynched over KBM?
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VeryInsane posted...

Leo3L posted...

My Immortal posted...

Wait, are you asking what scum's strategy would've been if Nana got lynched yesterday?

Yes. It could be an argument against you and Nana together as scum. Your alignments would still be up for debate, but it would mean logically we lynch Red.

Was Nana ever actually going to be lynched over KBM?

People sure as shit tried to make it happen, i.e. Puns and KBM.

Entertaining the three scum combos we are talking about - me/Red/MI

Me/Red: Town was split 3-3 on lynching me vs KBM

Me/MI: Town was split 4-2 on lynching KBM over me

MI/Red: Town was split 4-2 on lynching KBM over me.

In only the Red/me scenario would scum have determining vote power to lynch KBM over me.
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I started the day on Nana because of his bizarre Puns reversal

Then I switched to MI because of Scare' s role reveal

Then I switched to KBM after I reread the entire game.

Nana could have easily been lynched if I changed my mind again, or if you switched over to him. I think?

Whenever I switch last moment out of insecurity I regret it so I was trying to be more confident in my read. Perhaps too confident.
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I mean, it was also 4-3 before VI voted. If VI wanted to lynch me, I almost certainly get lynched because it's unlikely MI, KBM, or Puns switch votes, more likely Red/Death/Leo switches onto me and I'm lynched 5-3
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MI has the worst track record. Red has the best. I can't recall Nanas opinions throughout the game at this time because I think he's had every possible opinion
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Nanahara715 posted...

My Immortal posted...

God that post was so bad

Let's not forget that Nana went from "I'm trusting puns to lynch Han" to "Puns is scum because Han flipped scum".

This is a gross misrepresentation - it was because Han flipped "useless scum role that would have been no longer needed."

Scare likes this but I don't know why.
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Leo3L posted...

Nanahara715 posted...

My Immortal posted...

God that post was so bad

Let's not forget that Nana went from "I'm trusting puns to lynch Han" to "Puns is scum because Han flipped scum".

This is a gross misrepresentation - it was because Han flipped "useless scum role that would have been no longer needed."

Scare likes this but I don't know why.

He says it's a town nana reaction
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You know, I don't think sleep is necessary after all. I feel fine. Time to lynch someone based on a time paradox!
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Leo3L posted...

You know, I don't think sleep is necessary after all. I feel fine. Time to lynch someone based on a time paradox!

If only.
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VI, Puns, what did you think of Chris claiming he shot N1 and accidentally killed the cop?

I'm trying to see if my visceral reaction of "no way Chris fires n1, the hallmark of a terrible vig, and also what the hell are the odds of everyone targeting Puns n1 and being town" is a reasonable town response baseline for analyzing MI and them
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Like, I know last night I was pretty incoherent but isn't Occams razor that Chris is scum killing the cop?

How did scum know about the bus drive? Chris instantly claimed at days start. If MI was town you'd think there's be more consideration instead of snap vig claim. Like does Chris do that with like 20 minutes to ponder? I guess it's possible because it was a bad plan but still. I actually have not played in a game with scum Chris before
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Chris would fire Night One as town vig IMO

He's definitely done it before
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Leo3L posted...

VI, Puns, what did you think of Chris claiming he shot N1 and accidentally killed the cop?

I'm trying to see if my visceral reaction of "no way Chris fires n1, the hallmark of a terrible vig, and also what the hell are the odds of everyone targeting Puns n1 and being town" is a reasonable town response baseline for analyzing MI and them

town chris with a vig shot is a dangerous thing. For town.
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Hell, scum-aligned chris with an infinite vigilante shot was a dangerous thing. For scum.
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Heh
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Chris shooting night 1 as vig makes sense because he dies N1 so often. Doubly so on a vanilla claim who was second in votes D1.

I can only speculate how scum would know a town bus happened, which I've already done. Could have targeted me in some fashion. More likely than tracking MI since he'd probably be dealt with the following night.

I think the choice to tilt against me would be easy for chris since he probably saw me as a mislynch opportunity.

It's all very convenient but I hate trying to decide based on things I can't know instead of just judging people's play. I think MI seems better today than over the weekend but haven't gotten to read closely and process yet.
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Hmm okay
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The thing about Nana is that I just strongly get the cube he's speaking earnestly, saying whatever is genuinely coming to mind regardless of whether it's an effective argument or not. Scum's bad arguments are manipulative, calculated. His are just...genuine and misguided feeling at this point.
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Stan wants me to vote Nana but I defended him before reading that post oops
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Leo3L posted...

The thing about Nana is that I just strongly get the cube he's speaking earnestly, saying whatever is genuinely coming to mind regardless of whether it's an effective argument or not. Scum's bad arguments are manipulative, calculated. His are just...genuine and misguided feeling at this point.

Ehh, I think he flipped after I came after him yesterday. Look at the change from the time before I was here to the time after.
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Leo3L posted...

The thing about Nana is that I just strongly get the cube he's speaking earnestly, saying whatever is genuinely coming to mind regardless of whether it's an effective argument or not. Scum's bad arguments are manipulative, calculated. His are just...genuine and misguided feeling at this point.

Is that a today thought or an all game thought?
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I wouldn't be surprised if Chris actually shot Scare and Shad shot Puns -> redirect to Stan

Don't know why they would do it that way, but it wouldn't surprise me.
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My Immortal posted...

Leo3L posted...

The thing about Nana is that I just strongly get the cube he's speaking earnestly, saying whatever is genuinely coming to mind regardless of whether it's an effective argument or not. Scum's bad arguments are manipulative, calculated. His are just...genuine and misguided feeling at this point.

Is that a today thought or an all game thought?

Both, I guess? Like you and Red are jumping on him for his logical leaps but I can't help but feel scum nana would make tamer, safer arguments more likely to succeed instead of throwing all these wild punches
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Nanahara715 posted...

I wouldn't be surprised if Chris actually shot Scare and Shad shot Puns -> redirect to Stan

Don't know why they would do it that way, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Watcher fear but not tracker fear

Save the strongman shot if it was a one time deal
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Wait no that makes no sense if Chris is just going to claim the shot
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Leo3L posted...

Wait no that makes no sense if Chris is just going to claim the shot

We already saw Shad claim roleblocker when he wasn't.

In theory, having a bus is a second unblockable kill. Why not use it as such?
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Leo3L posted...

My Immortal posted...

Leo3L posted...

The thing about Nana is that I just strongly get the cube he's speaking earnestly, saying whatever is genuinely coming to mind regardless of whether it's an effective argument or not. Scum's bad arguments are manipulative, calculated. His are just...genuine and misguided feeling at this point.

Is that a today thought or an all game thought?

Both, I guess? Like you and Red are jumping on him for his logical leaps but I can't help but feel scum nana would make tamer, safer arguments more likely to succeed instead of throwing all these wild punches

I think its a CE thing tbh. They seem to play a much less logical game than here on b8.

This feels more difficult than it should be if me, VI and puns are all town. Town should be a clear favorite but I feel trapped instead.

I need your top lynch choice, Mi, red and Nana. None of this coy "I'm good with either" or "whoever you choose leo" nonsense. Pretend only one scum yet lives
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Nana.

At this point its nana mi or i lost already though. To say thos is a true preference would be a lie.

Leo3L posted...

This feels more difficult than it should be if me, VI and puns are all town. Town should be a clear favorite but I feel trapped instead.

I need your top lynch choice, Mi, red and Nana. None of this coy "I'm good with either" or "whoever you choose leo" nonsense. Pretend only one scum yet lives

To elaborate, the nana preference was a hypothetical scenario in my head where only one scum remains instead of two. In that case, MI has been more steadfast in his logic and done a better job keeping his composure.

Back to real world MI has been a scummy fuck that needs to die, but you didn't ask for that part.

To expand the first part of that, i really think Nana felt trapped last night and absolutely lost his composure as scum. His logic just never followed a reasonable town mindset.

Leo3L posted...

This feels more difficult than it should be if me, VI and puns are all town. Town should be a clear favorite but I feel trapped instead.

I need your top lynch choice, Mi, red and Nana. None of this coy "I'm good with either" or "whoever you choose leo" nonsense. Pretend only one scum yet lives

Red.

If Immy was the one to actually initiate the bus, his odds of also being a full time roleblocker are highly limited. That means Red is the roleblocker. Lynching him first gives us, what I'm estimating, a 66% chance of coasting tomorrow ie with roleblocker dead, 2/3 odds Death scanner either me or MI, and tomorrow is trivialized.

(In practice it's less because who knows if he chose to scan Puns or VI- I wager unlikely, but I'm not Death).

the logic above is the same even if there's one scum left - it couldn't be Immy because he would have to be bus driver + full roleblocker. So if there were one left, it's Red.
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Leo3L posted...

This feels more difficult than it should be if me, VI and puns are all town. Town should be a clear favorite but I feel trapped instead.

I need your top lynch choice, Mi, red and Nana. None of this coy "I'm good with either" or "whoever you choose leo" nonsense. Pretend only one scum yet lives

If there was only one scum I would be pushing Nana
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Nana, Nana, Red

WIFOM MAKES ME FEEL ALIVE

ONLY HALF JOKING
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Does Damphair or Euron do any swapping or anything that can pass as a bus drive

Honestly curious
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VeryInsane posted...

Does Damphair or Euron do any swapping or anything that can pass as a bus drive

Honestly curious

Euron takes his boats all the places. I was looking at this last night too to see if i could meta the last scum role. I could not.

VeryInsane posted...

Does Damphair or Euron do any swapping or anything that can pass as a bus drive

Honestly curious

Based solely on their Wikipedia articles because I don't actually know who they are, Euron lived as a pirate, and Suprak used Davos (also a piraate?) as a bus driver before in GOT2

Don't see anything about Damphair.
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It makes as much sense as Margery swapping people in her litter
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Flavour meta wise, I detest his claim from the get go but I know we don't speak of that
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Your going to run yourself in another circle if you think too hard on mis flavor claim.

Thought Euron would be roleblocker actually. Cuts off his crew's tongues

Damphair could fit the psychic part of MI's claim actually. Nana was the one who brought that up huh
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It's like, all the other flipped roles make sense to me but MI is claiming a Jack that feels like a random hodge podge of unrelated abilities that are justified in the loosest of ways and also smells of someone's bias towards tv show Margery being a talented player and not a 14 year old that Cersei goes paranoid insane about
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VeryInsane posted...

Thought Euron would be roleblocker actually. Cuts off his crew's tongues

Damphair could fit the psychic part of MI's claim actually. Nana was the one who brought that up huh

I was thinking maybe damphair throws them underwater in service of the drowned god for roleblocker too actually. Seemed like mostly dumb speculation when i finished thinking about it.

FFD and Scare remind me we thought it was one of MI/death and one of kbm/nana and don't really see a reason not to stay the course here

Scare strongly thinks MI is scum and leans toward Nana town

@MajinZidane used to be really good at end game, mayhaps he will come safe us because I'm only good at the midgame.
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