Board 8 > SpC2k17 Oracle Challenge Discussion Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

LusterSoldier posted...

I'm currently in the running for a perfect prediction for 2002. All I need is for 2002 to lose some percentage to finish this match with 70.27%

Currently .02 off of my 1991 prediction. Soooo close.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Round 12 Top 5:
1 - SwiftyDC - 49.57
2 - CaptainOfCrush - 49.31
3 - Steiner - 48.69
4 - Advokaiser - 48.62
5 - Nintendoboy375 - 48.61

Yeah! A Top 5, and currently looking good for the next one!
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I thought I was doing well today, but 2 points off will not cut it today.....
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That last hour was brutal for my 2002 prediction. 2002 had 70.27% at 11:20 PM and quickly gained 0.10% over the final 40 minutes of the match.
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i was rooting for you Luster, and voted 2010 myself. too bad it didn't work out.
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Round 14 Results:
1 - charmander6000 - 651.3
2 - SwiftyDC - 650.18
3 - tennisboy213 - 649.03
4 - Haste_2 - 647.7
5 - ShatteredElysium - 647.02
6 - Camden - 644.34
7 - CaptainOfCrush - 641.88
8 - AxemRedRanger - 640.16
9 - cyko - 637.89
10 - Luster Soldier - 637.37
11 - hylianknight3 - 637.31
12 - Ringworm - 637.09
13 - th3l3fty - 633.15
14 - creativename - 632.98
15 - Glenn_and_Toad - 632.66
16 - Master Moltar - 632.18
17 - transience - 627.3
18 - DarkFalconX - 626.28
19 - linkhatesganon - 623.09
20 - bbbtime - 620.48
21 - DoomTheGyarados - 619.92
22 - Team Rocket Elite - 619.14
23 - 3DSRage - 614.81
24 - Nintendoboy375 - 613.32
25 - ZeldaTPLink - 611.75
26 - Ngamer64 - 610.35
27 - t_kizzle - 609.24
28 - Paratroopa1 - 606.3
29 - theawesomestevr - 606.24
30 - LeonhartFour - 600.4
31 - davidponte - 590.52
32 - Agent M - 587.25
33 - spooky96 - 584.26
34 - whatisurnameplz - 582.86
35 - CherryCokes - 577.72
36 - Menji - 574.87
37 - paulg235 - 572.27
38 - haloiscoolisbak - 570.84
39 - Whiskey_Nick - 570.28
40 - Advokaiser - 566.61
41 - WalkingWiki - 557.3
42 - Xuxon - 553.67
43 - Radix - 548.95
44 - XIII_rocks - 541.24
45 - WiggumFan267 - 531.35
46 - Steiner - 521.43
47 - BlAcK TuRtLe - 517.88
48 - TsunamiXXVIII - 515.21
49 - kateee - 499.93
50 - pirate109 - 498.37
51 - raytan7585 - 388.74
52 - KingBartz - 387.8
53 - Arti - 322.32
54 - Lord Bob Bree - 306.27
55 - pjbasis - 93.19
56 - red sox 777 - 49.23

Round 13 Top 5:
1 - SwiftyDC - 49.89
2 - th3l3fty - 49.89
3 - AxemRedRanger - 49.88
4 - CherryCokes - 49.77
5 - tennisboy213 - 49.54

Round 14 Top 5:
1 - Luster Soldier - 49.9
2 - DarkFalconX - 49.83
3 - SwiftyDC - 49.7
4 - Camden - 49.63
5 - th3l3fty - 49.09
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Welp, today is gonna plummet me. I genuinely thought 94 would blow it out of the water

Looks like I'll be dropping down after today's matches as well.
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4 Top 5's in a row though! woot woot

Has that ever been done before?
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So... did anyone take 2011?
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cyko did, I think.
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My predictions were abysmal today. I totally overestimated the effect of 1994's picture and underestimated the effect of 2011's.
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I regret bumping up my 1994 prediction after I looked at the picture. 2006 may not even hold either.
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rally the troops
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Camden posted...

So... did anyone take 2011?

Skimmed the topic quickly and I think I counted 11 people who had picked 2011 (I'm one of them). Some may have changed later on to 2006 - didn't check that.
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Yup, I held my ground and I did take 2011. But I also took 1994 with a massive blowout, so the two picks will even out...
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LusterSoldier posted...

In all the team names, the word "team" itself is not part of the name.

i'd like to confirm that our team is called TEAM big bad steiner time
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hylianknight3 posted...

My predictions were abysmal today. I totally overestimated the effect of 1994's picture and underestimated the effect of 2011's.

Same. :(
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I knew 1994/2004 was going to be somewhat close... But I'm gonna get destroyed after my 2006 pick.

At least I scaled 12 positions in the last 3 days or so.
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TRE would you be able to massage the data to generate a list of all the Oracle Consensus picks? I know it doesn't mean as much as in the past with so much uncertainty but it gives us a nice basis for our Show discussions on each match. Thanks bro!


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Ngamer64 posted...

the data to generate a list of all the Oracle Consensus picks? I know it doesn't mean as much as in the past with so much uncertainty but it gives us a nice basis for our Show discuss

I think I can put something like that together.
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Consensus should be easy. Add up all one column and divide by the number of predictions? Or am I overlooking something

It's that easy when everyone picks 2006, but when 10 people go with 2011 instead the script needs to recognize that and use [100 - their pick] instead. Not a huge deal but a little bit of a complication.


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Here you go consensus picks:

2009 - 80.72%
1989 - 70.44%
2006 - 78.20%
2005 - 84.11%

1995 - 84.84%
1987 - 55.19%
2001 - 73.32%
2008 - 63.20%

1997 - 74.89%
2007 - 70.89%
2000 - 59.85%
1996 - 78.29%

1991 - 82.26%
2002 - 68.89%
1994 - 68.01%
2006 - 53.93%

Do you need consensus picks for future matches? I can get those but a lot of people don't put in their Oracles picks until there are about 5 seconds before the next match starts.
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Ngamer64 posted...

It's that easy when everyone picks 2006, but when 10 people go with 2011 instead the script needs to recognize that and use [100 - their pick] instead. Not a huge deal but a little bit of a complication.

Consensus shouldn't take into account penalty though? Because let's say you have an exact 50.1/49.9 match or even a 51/49 , consensus would say people picked the loser when actually the majority picked the winner and only the penalty pushed the loser into favoritism.

I guess it depends on if your consensus pick is average result or what people think the % will be. For me it's the latter and then penalty applies after that of applicable. Can see why other would go with the opposite though

He isn't talking about the penalty. Consider these oracle predictions for a hypothetical 1995 vs 2001 match:

1995 - 70.00%
2001 - 55.00%

I can't just take the straight average ((70+55)/2 = 62.5). I need to do: (70+(100-55))/2 = 57.5.
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But if you did it the way I said it would be 70 + 45 = 115. Divided by 2 is 57.5. So same result

I.e. you only care about the % for 1 side of the result, regardless of whether it's predicted as a winner or loser

The Round 1 topics seems like it will be just short of having enough space for Round 1. When it fills up, post your predictions in the Round 2 topics with a clear label regarding which round your prediction is for.
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No need to worry about the future, but if 24ish hours from now you could post the (at that time) consensus for 98 92 03 05 that would be super duper, will be a big help for us in picking our Stars and Turds of R1.
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Ugh... I made a huge rookie mistake on today's match. I was so caught up with 2006 vs 2011 that I never bothered to look at what people were picking for the 1994 vs 2004 match. I was banking on 1994 scoring a big blowout, but I could have lowered my pick by 8 or 9 points and I still would have had one of the three highest picks.

If I would have paid more attention, I would have noticed the huge gap between myself and everyone else and I would have adjusted accordingly. Probably cost myself a spot in the Top 5 Leaderboard... Blast! Learn from my mistakes!!
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

The Round 1 topics seems like it will be just short of having enough space for Round 1. When it fills up, post your predictions in the Round 2 topics with a clear label regarding which round your prediction is for.

At some point within the first hour of the next matches, I'll put up another topic for Round 1, but it should only be used if the other topic fills up completely.
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I noticed an error in how I was scoring matches. I wasn't applying the wrong winner penalty correctly. Results will be slightly delayed and I'll have to update the previous leaderboard as well. If you predicted the right winner up to now, your score won't change.
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Round 16 Results:
1 - charmander6000 - 725.32
2 - Ringworm - 722.94
3 - SwiftyDC - 721.5
4 - Haste_2 - 721.28
5 - tennisboy213 - 720.86
6 - Camden - 715.17
7 - ShatteredElysium - 711.85
8 - bbbtime - 711.31
9 - AxemRedRanger - 711.15
10 - CaptainOfCrush - 710.71
11 - Luster Soldier - 709.24
12 - hylianknight3 - 707.19
13 - transience - 705.96
14 - th3l3fty - 704.06
15 - Master Moltar - 702.01
16 - creativename - 701.31
17 - Glenn_and_Toad - 699.99
18 - cyko - 699.91
19 - DarkFalconX - 698.37
20 - ZeldaTPLink - 693.48
21 - Ngamer64 - 691.1
22 - Paratroopa1 - 686.12
23 - Team Rocket Elite - 683.97
24 - linkhatesganon - 683.46
25 - DoomTheGyarados - 683.05
26 - Nintendoboy375 - 681.8
27 - 3DSRage - 679.44
28 - t_kizzle - 674.84
29 - theawesomestevr - 674.07
30 - Agent M - 673.01
31 - haloiscoolisbak - 669.39
32 - spooky96 - 666.09
33 - whatisurnameplz - 663.41
34 - davidponte - 659.39
35 - Whiskey_Nick - 658.13
36 - Menji - 657.02
37 - LeonhartFour - 652.7
38 - paulg235 - 650.2
39 - WalkingWiki - 642.52
40 - Advokaiser - 640.13
41 - CherryCokes - 633.37
42 - Xuxon - 630.5
43 - Radix - 617
44 - WiggumFan267 - 611.7
45 - Steiner - 605.26
46 - BlAcK TuRtLe - 593.91
47 - TsunamiXXVIII - 575.04
48 - XIII_rocks - 567.11
49 - kateee - 499.93
50 - pirate109 - 498.37
51 - raytan7585 - 450.66
52 - KingBartz - 387.8
53 - Arti - 322.32
54 - Lord Bob Bree - 301.65
55 - pjbasis - 93.19
56 - red sox 777 - 49.23

Round 15 Top 5:
1 - WalkingWiki - 49.24
2 - spooky96 - 48.69
3 - TsunamiXXVIII - 48.69
4 - haloiscoolisbak - 48.69
5 - raytan7585 - 48.47

Round 16 Top 5:
1 - haloiscoolisbak - 49.86
2 - cyko - 47.51
3 - Whiskey_Nick - 47.39
4 - bbbtime - 47.27
5 - Ringworm - 45.91
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ShatteredElysium posted...

But if you did it the way I said it would be 70 + 45 = 115. Divided by 2 is 57.5. So same result

I.e. you only care about the % for 1 side of the result, regardless of whether it's predicted as a winner or loser

You have to do 100-55 to get 45 though. That's what Ngamer was saying.

There must have been some bad picks in match 16.

2nd overall huh? Guess sticking to my bracket paid off.
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creativename posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

But if you did it the way I said it would be 70 + 45 = 115. Divided by 2 is 57.5. So same result

I.e. you only care about the % for 1 side of the result, regardless of whether it's predicted as a winner or loser

You have to do 100-55 to get 45 though. That's what Ngamer was saying.

Yeah I get that, for some reason I thought the spreadsheet listed matches as 55/45 rather than winner and percentage

Wow, I only went down one spot. Guess it was a tough day for many of us.
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hmm, 20 off the lead and half the contest over

that may be too high a hurdle to climb

I'd figure out team scores but eh
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Still at 40... Today's not looking so hot either, I underestimated 1993 and 2016.
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This contest is the equivalent of spending $70 on a new game and using cheats to max everything out and blow through the game.

For those not following me; it's not that fun!

Edit: replaced comma with semi-colon. >_>

Round 18 Results:
1 - Ringworm - 815.8
2 - tennisboy213 - 815.7
3 - SwiftyDC - 815.36
4 - Haste_2 - 813.87
5 - charmander6000 - 813.81
6 - Camden - 809.01
7 - AxemRedRanger - 807.15
8 - CaptainOfCrush - 805.55
9 - bbbtime - 804.75
10 - Luster Soldier - 804.48
11 - ShatteredElysium - 802.59
12 - transience - 799.24
13 - hylianknight3 - 797.07
14 - Master Moltar - 796.95
15 - th3l3fty - 796.91
16 - creativename - 795.65
17 - DarkFalconX - 794.56
18 - Glenn_and_Toad - 793.83
19 - cyko - 792.34
20 - ZeldaTPLink - 791.5
21 - Ngamer64 - 784.04
22 - DoomTheGyarados - 778.8
23 - Paratroopa1 - 778.26
24 - Team Rocket Elite - 776.81
25 - linkhatesganon - 776.23
26 - Nintendoboy375 - 774.2
27 - 3DSRage - 771.28
28 - t_kizzle - 764.91
29 - Agent M - 762.51
30 - theawesomestevr - 759.91
31 - haloiscoolisbak - 758.39
32 - davidponte - 755.29
33 - spooky96 - 753.93
34 - whatisurnameplz - 749.25
35 - Menji - 748.18
36 - paulg235 - 743.64
37 - LeonhartFour - 738.39
38 - CherryCokes - 730.09
39 - Advokaiser - 723.55
40 - Xuxon - 722.34
41 - WalkingWiki - 720.33
42 - Radix - 704.79
43 - Whiskey_Nick - 702.18
44 - WiggumFan267 - 685.07
45 - BlAcK TuRtLe - 682.94
46 - TsunamiXXVIII - 659.46
47 - XIII_rocks - 642.53
48 - Steiner - 605.26
49 - raytan7585 - 546.89
50 - kateee - 499.93
51 - pirate109 - 498.37
52 - KingBartz - 387.8
53 - Arti - 322.32
54 - Lord Bob Bree - 301.65
55 - pjbasis - 93.19
56 - red sox 777 - 49.23

Round 17 Top 5:
1 - Nintendoboy375 - 49.78
2 - Radix - 49.46
3 - Paratroopa1 - 49.45
4 - Agent M - 49.08
5 - Menji - 49.08

Round 18 Top 5:
1 - ZeldaTPLink - 49.96
2 - DoomTheGyarados - 49.39
3 - tennisboy213 - 48.92
4 - Master Moltar - 48.62
5 - CherryCokes - 48.45

Oracle Consensus:
1998 - 87.27%
1992 - 73.67%
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14 - Master Moltar - 796.95
15 - th3l3fty - 796.91

DAMMIT
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Round 18 Results:
1 - Ringworm - 815.8

I think this is the first time I have ever lead in Oracle history! Very unexpected. Also #1 in guru (for today - eliminated after today) and #3 on the site leaderboard. Good times.
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My first #1 prediction! I still haven't moved up in the leaderboard, though.
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Make sure someone archives the old topic just in case we get website working

Early on, it looks like today has some serious bad score potential.
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Knew I should've stuck with my lower prediction for 95 with that pic.
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1995 is killing me. :|
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I'm off by a combined 20% right now.
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Round 20 Results:
1 - tennisboy213 - 911.4
2 - Haste_2 - 910.92
3 - SwiftyDC - 910.59
4 - charmander6000 - 909.35
5 - Ringworm - 909.12
6 - Camden - 904.02
7 - Luster Soldier - 901.73
8 - AxemRedRanger - 900.94
9 - CaptainOfCrush - 900.56
10 - ShatteredElysium - 900.24
11 - th3l3fty - 892.64
12 - creativename - 892.16
13 - hylianknight3 - 890.33
14 - Master Moltar - 889.66
15 - DarkFalconX - 888.22
16 - transience - 888.14
17 - Glenn_and_Toad - 887.53
18 - bbbtime - 886.08
19 - cyko - 883.69
20 - Ngamer64 - 876.7
21 - ZeldaTPLink - 876.25
22 - linkhatesganon - 872.27
23 - DoomTheGyarados - 870.81
24 - Team Rocket Elite - 869.82
25 - Nintendoboy375 - 869.57
26 - 3DSRage - 863.25
27 - t_kizzle - 858.6
28 - Agent M - 858.26
29 - haloiscoolisbak - 852.4
30 - spooky96 - 851.94
31 - Paratroopa1 - 850.63
32 - whatisurnameplz - 843.26
33 - davidponte - 839.92
34 - theawesomestevr - 835.96
35 - paulg235 - 831.35
36 - WalkingWiki - 818.05
37 - Advokaiser - 816.81
38 - LeonhartFour - 813.1
39 - Menji - 811.13
40 - CherryCokes - 806.29
41 - Radix - 803.58
42 - Whiskey_Nick - 771.63
43 - WiggumFan267 - 768.62
44 - BlAcK TuRtLe - 754.47
45 - TsunamiXXVIII - 736.86
46 - Xuxon - 722.34
47 - XIII_rocks - 706.48
48 - raytan7585 - 610.75
49 - Steiner - 605.26
50 - kateee - 499.93
51 - pirate109 - 498.37
52 - KingBartz - 387.8
53 - Arti - 322.32
54 - Lord Bob Bree - 301.65
55 - pjbasis - 93.19
56 - owyn_merrilin - 64.01
57 - red sox 777 - 49.23

Round 19 Top 5:
1 - Agent M - 49.98
2 - Master Moltar - 49.53
3 - DarkFalconX - 49.18
4 - Nintendoboy375 - 49.09
5 - creativename - 49.03

Round 20 Top 5:
1 - spooky96 - 49.98
2 - Radix - 49.91
3 - Luster Soldier - 49.54
4 - ShatteredElysium - 49.48
5 - WalkingWiki - 49.29

Oracle Consensus:
2003 - 58.80%
2005 - 55.81%
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