Board 8 > Official MLB/Baseball Discussion Topic (Preseason Edition)

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Sorozone
02/23/12 2:11:00 PM
#101:


Braun also won his appeal.

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HookedOnSonics
02/23/12 2:14:00 PM
#102:


http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/140213003.html

Theres the article

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Tornadoman78
02/23/12 2:15:00 PM
#103:


leave for spring training in two weeks cant wait

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BleedingRed
02/23/12 2:41:00 PM
#104:


Sorozone posted...
He has a shot at 50 steals, but 50 HR's? I think teams will be more likely to walk him, this which would lead to the 50 steals, but he also will be trying to steal against 2 of the better defensive catchers in Montero and Posey.

He has the skills to do it, I just don't see him pulling it off. Hell, there are only a handful of players that have potential to pull off 40-40 in the league right now; Kemp, Justin Upton, Braun and Granderson. Out of those 4, I think Kemp and Upton are the only 2 to probably pull it off, both are also quite capable of getting to 50-50 as well, Upton more so because he is in a great situation right now, with the protection he will have in the lineup. Goldschmidt, Montero, Young can all protect him, Kemp only has Ethier, who is also coming off an injury.


Um...both are quite capable of doing something that has never been done before by some of the best players to ever play? o_O

I would say the only guys that are likely to be able to have a 40/40 season are BJ Upton (not Justin), Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun.

I don't think any of them have the ability to hit 50/50.

I'm interested to see how Bourjos does with some line-up protection and a decent batting spot. He could be a sleeper to hit 30/30 this year.

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Sorozone
02/23/12 3:37:00 PM
#105:


From: BleedingRed | #104
I would say the only guys that are likely to be able to have a 40/40 season are BJ Upton (not Justin),


Wut?

Justin has far superior power than BJ, literally averaged the longest HR distance last year(and it's not like he hit only 15, he hit 31). Justin isn't exactly slow either, he just isn't a smart baserunner. Only thing that BJ probably has over Justin is just overall speed, and baserunning. Justin is far and away the better hitter, and power hitter.

Justin had 31 HR's with 21 SB's last year, he will have much better protection in the lineup this year, he hits in a hitter friendly ballpark, and he is only going to get better(He's only 24).

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BleedingRed
02/23/12 4:48:00 PM
#106:


Sorozone posted...
From: BleedingRed | #104
I would say the only guys that are likely to be able to have a 40/40 season are BJ Upton (not Justin),

Wut?

Justin has far superior power than BJ, literally averaged the longest HR distance last year(and it's not like he hit only 15, he hit 31). Justin isn't exactly slow either, he just isn't a smart baserunner. Only thing that BJ probably has over Justin is just overall speed, and baserunning. Justin is far and away the better hitter, and power hitter.

Justin had 31 HR's with 21 SB's last year, he will have much better protection in the lineup this year, he hits in a hitter friendly ballpark, and he is only going to get better(He's only 24).


The only thing that Justin has over BJ is that he actually knows what he is and he knows how to use his abilities fully. BJ has better potential if he could put it all together but he just doesn't seem to know how to do it. Either way Justin doesn't have 40/40 potential -- he just doesn't have the baserunning ability. It's questionable that he even has hitting, but he's a fantastic hitter and it wouldn't surprise me if he hit 40 HRs...but I don't expect him to. BJ has decent protection himself...especially since he has a good chance at playing between Jennings and Longoria this year.

Justin is a better hitter and BJ is a better base-runner. Justin has never shown the ability to do 40 SB, nor is he likely going to be in a position to. BJ already has that ability and he has shown massive power in the past...he just needs to put it all together. It will probably never happen for him though.

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Sorozone
02/23/12 4:51:00 PM
#107:


From: BleedingRed | #106
BJ has better potential


No he doesn't. Every scout in the world would tell you Justin is the better brother, has the better potential, and is quite frankly better in every regard.

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BleedingRed
02/23/12 5:00:00 PM
#108:


Sorozone posted...
From: BleedingRed | #106
BJ has better potential
No he doesn't. Every scout in the world would tell you Justin is the better brother, has the better potential, and is quite frankly better in every regard.


So because you have no actual basis for what the original argument is you are picking at a small part of what I was saying as a strawman to distract from the original point (that BJ has a better chance at 40/40 than Justin does)?

Not only that but you are only focusing on something that is purely subjective.

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Sorozone
02/23/12 5:25:00 PM
#109:


From: BleedingRed | #108
So because you have no actual basis for what the original argument is you are picking at a small part of what I was saying as a strawman to distract from the original point (that BJ has a better chance at 40/40 than Justin does)?




No, because your argument sucks, but if you want me to expand upon it I will.

From: BleedingRed | #106
The only thing that Justin has over BJ is that he actually knows what he is and he knows how to use his abilities fully.


Subjective. One could say the same about Justin. The only difference is that Justin has shown the ability to become more consistent, and the ability to actually improve more so than his brother, other than his 2010 season where he was injured with an abdominal strain, which is a pretty bad injury to have for a hitter.

BJ has better potential if he could put it all together but he just doesn't seem to know how to do it.


Or you know, he just isn't that good.

Either way Justin doesn't have 40/40 potential


Uhh...yeah he does. HR totals 15 to 26 to 17(injuries was his main issue) to 31(fully healthy the whole year), each year his HBP and IBB has also been going up, he is reaching base more, and he has been hitting more HR's each new season.

SB/CS(past 3 seasons) 20/5 18/8 21/9-Base running is something that can be improved upon, he just relied on his speed rather than using his head. His attempts have gone up each year, and with Gibson wants his players to steal(2nd in the NL, 7th in the majors last year).
He is getting the attempts in, and unlike hitting, being a smart baserunner is a lot easier to learn.

he just doesn't have the baserunning ability. It's questionable that he even has hitting, but he's a fantastic hitter and it wouldn't surprise me if he hit 40 HRs...but I don't expect him to.


He has the ability because he has shown improvement in hitting each year. Unlike BJ who is up and down(BJ has been in the majors 7 years, Upton 5, they both have 2 20-20 seasons, 1 20-30 season, both last year). They both have the ability it's not about expecting them to, it's about what they are capable of. Justin has shown the speed and power to do it, BJ has shown the speed but not the power.

but I don't expect him to. BJ has decent protection himself...especially since he has a good chance at playing between Jennings and Longoria this year.


His protection doesn't matter, he is not the power hitter that Justin is. He is not the hitter Justin is.

Justin is a better hitter and BJ is a better base-runner. Justin has never shown the ability to do 40 SB, nor is he likely going to be in a position to


I'm pretty sure he will be in a position to. Diamondbacks are a heavy base stealing team, he has the speed, and he has the OBP to get on base.

BJ already has that ability and he has shown massive power in the past...he just needs to put it all together. It will probably never happen for him though.


BJ has never shown massive power compared to Justin.

BJ's Career ISO: .159
Justin's Career ISO: .211

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Sorozone
02/23/12 5:27:00 PM
#110:


Also I'm willing to bet that Justin has a 30-30 year this year, barring injury of course.

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BleedingRed
02/23/12 8:07:00 PM
#111:


Improvement is never linear. Eventually people hit a cap -- just because Upton has been trending upwards doesn't mean that he's going to continuously make giant leaps in production. Only 2 people in the entire league hit 40 HRs last year. A lot of guys with just as much power, more discipline and better bat control than Justin Upton didn't hit 40 last year -- no one has ever gone 50 - 50. Justin hasn't even stolen more than 20 bases in a season and you're saying that he has the ability to do what nobody has done before and something he's never even come close to?

Justin wasn't even in the top 50 in walks last year...and considering his hitting capabilities and power they're going to start limiting his hitting opportunities by pitching around him as he gets better. There are going to be bumps along the way for sure.

BJ has been in the league for a while and he's turning 27 this year (a common year for players to hit their primes) and he has been projected many times as a 40 - 40 guy. He has shown monstrous hitting capabilities before (08 playoffs, 07, etc.) maybe not on the level of his brother, but he's shown much better base running over his entire career.

Sorozone posted...
Also I'm willing to bet that Justin has a 30-30 year this year, barring injury of course.

I'll take that bet. Justin has never shown the ability to steal like that. I'd say he's more likely to get 35 - 25.

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Sorozone
02/23/12 8:41:00 PM
#112:


From: BleedingRed | #111
Justin hasn't even stolen more than 20 bases in a season and you're saying that he has the ability to do what nobody has done before and something he's never even come close to?


He had 21 last year dude...At least look up the stats if you are going to say something. : \

Justin wasn't even in the top 50 in walks last year...


48th in walks, lead the majors in HBP, 25th in OBP. Once again please look up stats next time.

I'll take that bet.


6 month sig bet fine with you?

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Sorozone
02/23/12 9:53:00 PM
#113:


I don't know where you got your stats, but according to Fangraphs, Justin had 21 SB's just last year, as well as being 48th in walks, lead the majors in HBP, 25th in OBP.

He had 30 attempts for steals last year, and while I'm not saying he is going to 30/30 on steals like Ichiro in 06 who ended up 45/47 or something. I'm saying that if he cleans up his baserunning, being able to read pitchers better, he could easily end up 25/30 26/30, because he has the speed to do it. Once he gets going, once his confidence up his attempts will only naturally go up, and 30 steals, 35 steals, 40 steals isn't out of the realm of possibility for him.

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BleedingRed
02/23/12 10:06:00 PM
#114:


Sorozone posted...
I don't know where you got your stats, but according to Fangraphs, Justin had 21 SB's just last year, as well as being 48th in walks, lead the majors in HBP, 25th in OBP.

He had 30 attempts for steals last year, and while I'm not saying he is going to 30/30 on steals like Ichiro in 06 who ended up 45/47 or something. I'm saying that if he cleans up his baserunning, being able to read pitchers better, he could easily end up 25/30 26/30, because he has the speed to do it. Once he gets going, once his confidence up his attempts will only naturally go up, and 30 steals, 35 steals, 40 steals isn't out of the realm of possibility for him.


I was just pointing out that he's never posted great stolen base numbers at any level. I said 20 as a round number. In reference to the walks...I just went to the MLB stats page and hit walks -- he's on the 2nd page tied with like 5 people for 48th. If he's going to become an elite level power hitter he's going to start getting walked a lot more. That might improve his stolen bases count (maybe) but it's going to lower his hitting opportunities as pitchers start pitching around him.

Anyway...the main point is that you are placing expectations of having the best statistical season of all time on the guy when he hasn't even gone 30/30 yet, let alone 40/40 or even close to 50/50. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit 40 or 50 HRs even, but I would be absolutely shocked if his stolen bases jumped like that.

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Sorozone
02/23/12 10:28:00 PM
#115:


All it takes is a breakout year.

Upton on the season he turned 24 years old; 31 HR's 21 SB's. Kemp on the season he turned 24; 18 HR's and 35 SB's.

It's like you can't wrap your head around people improving a certain aspect of their game.

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Dr_Football
02/24/12 1:18:00 AM
#116:


I'm in the mood for baseball quizzes after watching Baseball IQ, so I may be running a game or two of that in the near future, so be on the lookout

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BleedingRed
02/24/12 5:53:00 AM
#117:


Sorozone posted...
All it takes is a breakout year.

Upton on the season he turned 24 years old; 31 HR's 21 SB's. Kemp on the season he turned 24; 18 HR's and 35 SB's.

It's like you can't wrap your head around people improving a certain aspect of their game.


It's like you can't wrap your head around the idea that these guys are not the best batters to ever play the game. Nobody in history has ever hit 50/50 and these guys aren't the ones to do it. At least Kemp took a huge step forward (that wasn't exactly expected.)

On top of this you need to be able to understand that progression in sports is very, very rarely linear and players plateau at different places. Is it possible that Upton continues to improve at a high rate? Sure. Is it likely that he goes 40/40 because he went 30/20 at 24? Not really.

There's bound to be a 'breakout' star every year. I just don't think it's going to be Justin Upton as he gets more attention. I think he'll still be elite, but just not one of the best batters of all time.

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BleedingRed
02/24/12 5:55:00 AM
#118:


Keep in mind that Justin had an almost identical season at 21 years old, too. Why isn't he already a 40/40 guy?

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KCF0107
02/24/12 7:52:00 AM
#119:


From: Dr_Football | #266
I'm in the mood for baseball quizzes after watching Baseball IQ, so I may be running a game or two of that in the near future, so be on the lookout


Will do

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BleedingRed
02/24/12 5:53:00 PM
#120:


I hope Braun has an amazing season just to shut up the haters. He's a class act.

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BleedingRed
02/25/12 6:04:00 PM
#121:


Nobody cares about Braun?

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Rad Link 5
02/27/12 3:50:00 AM
#122:


From: BleedingRed | #120
I hope Braun has an amazing season just to shut up the haters. He's a class act.


Agreed.

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neonreap
02/27/12 4:49:00 AM
#123:


Uptons have no shot at 40/40 unless they become 200 hits guys, and they aren't. BJ's potential is "Justin", and he's only sorta hit that level once and it's starting to seem like a long time ago now.

Braun, I dunno. Probably should have shut his mouth about A-Rod, but now he gets off on a technicality. I don't really care about his cheating, it's just dumb to chirp about someone else when you messed up your own test.

It also makes me think that MLB has had some more shadowy stuff go on like this. Their big problem right now - leak. We weren't supposed to know of any of this.

I've hated the way baseball/MLBPA have dealt with PEDs the whole time and I'm glad Braun is "innocent" so MLB can go F itself for being failures.

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BleedingRed
02/27/12 11:04:00 AM
#124:


neonreap posted...
Uptons have no shot at 40/40 unless they become 200 hits guys, and they aren't. BJ's potential is "Justin", and he's only sorta hit that level once and it's starting to seem like a long time ago now.

Braun, I dunno. Probably should have shut his mouth about A-Rod, but now he gets off on a technicality. I don't really care about his cheating, it's just dumb to chirp about someone else when you messed up your own test.

It also makes me think that MLB has had some more shadowy stuff go on like this. Their big problem right now - leak. We weren't supposed to know of any of this.

I've hated the way baseball/MLBPA have dealt with PEDs the whole time and I'm glad Braun is "innocent" so MLB can go F itself for being failures.


The difference is that Braun claims not to have ever done PEDs. The whole way this thing has gone makes me believe him a lot more than one possibly tainted test.

1) PEDs aren't the only thing that causes a spike in testosterone.
2) The test was 3 times higher than any other test in history...Braun must be really hitting the juice hard if that's the case.
3) The guy who took the test could have brought it to fed-ex the day he took it...he got the test done at 5 and there were a multitude of locations open until 9. He chose to take it home for whatever reason.
4) Ryan Braun has never tested positive before, or after. All of his statistics have been relatively constant. He hasn't had any great injuries that he might need it for recovery, and supposedly his workout has been the exact same for the last 6 years.

I give Braun the benefit of the doubt. He went about it the right way. #3 is by far the most fishy part of the story to me though.

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BleedingRed
02/27/12 11:06:00 AM
#125:


Also, as has been mentioned many times, Braun had to attack the technical aspect of the test because the MLB (or any governing organization really) won't allow you to challenge the science of their test (as it pretty much draws doubt on every test they've ever done, and their testing process in general.) There has never been a case where a player or athlete has challenged the science of the test and won.

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th3l3fty
02/27/12 11:07:00 AM
#126:


2) The test was 3 times higher than any other test in history...Braun must be really hitting the juice hard if that's the case.

this is incorrect - it was the highest in MLB history; they've seen results 5 times higher in international competitions

3) The guy who took the test could have brought it to fed-ex the day he took it...he got the test done at 5 and there were a multitude of locations open until 9. He chose to take it home for whatever reason.

have you seen the OTL story on this? people familiar with the drug-testing process basically came out and said it was literally impossible for the sample to have been tampered with

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th3l3fty
02/27/12 11:10:00 AM
#127:


here's the full story:
http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/page/OTL-Ryan-Braun/ryan-braun-defense-raises-more-questions-doping-experts

I was wavering on it until I read that - and now I'm fairly convinced that Braun effectively just got away with capital murder

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Rad Link 5
02/27/12 11:33:00 AM
#128:


I heard earlier last week on ESPN that Ryan Braun offered to perform a DNA test on the sample, and that MLB turned down that offer, which is suspicious enough for me. It's especially striking to hear that on ESPN, since they've been more or less insisting he's guilty since the day the news broke.

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BleedingRed
02/27/12 12:37:00 PM
#129:


Watch Ryan Braun's press conference. He's a consummate professional and I'm 100% sure that he didn't take any PED.

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th3l3fty
02/27/12 12:51:00 PM
#130:


if Braun did take PEDs, chances are he had no idea that he did

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BleedingRed
02/27/12 4:15:00 PM
#131:


It still just doesn't fit. Suddenly, after years of consistent statistics, consistent workouts, no serious injuries, and no real physical changes he gets a spike of synthetic testosterone that is 5x the acceptable limit?

It just so happens that a guy could have delivered his urine sample the day it was taken (multiple fedex locations open until 9 near him and on his way home) chose to keep it with him for an extra 44 hours? Very, very weird. I know the chances of tampering are very slim, but this is just a weird situation.

That's not even taking into consideration the chances of a false positive (Braun took a test as soon as he found out about the positive and it came out clean, he offered to do a DNA test against the positive sample and it was declined.) Or that there are so many different things that can cause a testosterone boost besides performance enhancers...

Like I said -- he had to go on the technicality because there isn't a governing body out there that is willing to admit that their science and testing procedures are faulty. Good on him for doing it and good on him for winning.

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voltch
02/27/12 4:36:00 PM
#132:


So uh who likes the Ryan Zimmerman deal?

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KCF0107
02/27/12 5:31:00 PM
#133:


I do as long as he stays healthy. I mean, the salary is about $15-17 so it's far from ridiculous and he's probably the most complete 3B in the game. Plus, the deal goes until he's about 33-35.

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HookedOnSonics
02/28/12 10:58:00 AM
#134:


Let's also not forget Braun had no documented weight gain or strength gain (as much as this can be measured I guess) since taking them.

Not definitive by itself but more proof to the pile

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BleedingRed
02/29/12 3:43:00 AM
#135:


Spring training is so close...

...got my MLB.tv subscription and I've just been watching this past season's games again. Argh.

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voltch
02/29/12 5:37:00 PM
#136:


Mike has now changed his name to Giancarlo.

Mike Stanton had a better ring to it but bah.

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Revenus
02/29/12 5:38:00 PM
#137:


oh ya my pirates go my pirates

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Not Dave
02/29/12 7:40:00 PM
#138:


apparently they'll be making an announcement on adding a one-game playoff for the wildcard spot as early as tomorrow

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ExThaNemesis
02/29/12 7:46:00 PM
#139:


It's so stupid that they blatantly ignore the obvious fix in order to add something frivolous.

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BleedingRed
02/29/12 8:24:00 PM
#140:


Are we going to be doing a fantasy league for B8?

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voltch
03/01/12 1:28:00 AM
#141:


It's already filled up.

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th3l3fty
03/01/12 9:54:00 AM
#142:


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/joe_sheehan/02/29/wild.card/index.html

this guy is on the money

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JaKyL25
03/02/12 1:38:00 PM
#143:


Love the new postseason setup. Sure, there are cons to it, but there are pros and cons to every postseason format unless you just go to a completely balanced schedule and then award the NL and AL Championships to the teams with the best records in each league, and then play the World Series between them for s***s and giggles.

If they are determined to have divisions and unbalanced schedules, and they are, then this new format is awesome and far superior to the previous one.

Although yeah, in an ideal world, there would be a shift in divisions every year to re-organize them in a balanced manner based on previous season record.

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Tornadoman78
03/02/12 2:20:00 PM
#144:


just heard their going to expain the playoffs from 8 to 10 teams adding extra wildcards to each divsion

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