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XIII_rocks 12/20/11 9:53:00 PM #1: |
I'm sorry I can't hear you from up here in the land of sensible, glorious straight picks.
-- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. The guru champ isn't such a SuperNiceDog, he made me change my sig! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 12/20/11 9:53:00 PM #2: |
If it's as predictable as this one, then yes.
-- SuperNiceDog is better than a bunny slug: http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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iGenesis 12/20/11 9:53:00 PM #3: |
That stupid X% pick idea was nothing short of MORONIC.
Thanks a lot for nothing, Allen. When someone with 39700 before the final match can finish in 48th place, you know something is f***ing wrong with this contest. I say that Allen should go back and recompute the placements based on straight outcome + "number of votes" tiebreaker only. -- GameFAQs.com: Where YOU make the content, but CBS makes the money. http://lueshi.info/Mario_Zelda_Tier_List.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Lopen 12/20/11 9:58:00 PM #4: |
Hey, at least you got a chance to blow yourself to bits by making a bad pick. I gave up mid contest because I didn't think such a point gaining measure would exist!
-- I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Sorozone 12/20/11 9:59:00 PM #5: |
From: Lopen | #004 Same. : | -- - ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TimJab 12/20/11 9:59:00 PM #6: |
u mad
-- http://www.thejetsblog.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/himommangold_thumb.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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iGenesis 12/20/11 10:01:00 PM #7: |
From: Lopen | #004 14/50 perfects survived. That means those who "made a bad pick" are in the overwhelming majority -- 72% to be exact. It's not like *I* did something unusually stupid that didn't happen to the majority. I don't see your name on any leaderboard. You can stop being full of yourself. -- GameFAQs.com: Where YOU make the content, but CBS makes the money. http://lueshi.info/Mario_Zelda_Tier_List.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 12/20/11 10:01:00 PM #8: |
Well you did pick Link > 70%
That was pretty ill-advised. -- http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png No I'm not a damn furry. Looney Tunes are different. - Guiga ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TimJab 12/20/11 10:02:00 PM #9: |
From: Lopen | #004 From: iGenesis | #007 ... -- http://bryandanielson.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/photo3.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TimJab 12/20/11 10:02:00 PM #10: |
From: LordoftheMorons | #008 XD he's complaining after he did this? XFD -- http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6VmYVI7liwE/TnVxd6msalI/AAAAAAAAE74/SZT6xCZPZeI/s1600/8.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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junk_funk 12/20/11 10:02:00 PM #11: |
I made the leader board because of my excellent 1% pick. So bugger off.
-- http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=5364544 Congrats to SuperNiceDog! Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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iGenesis 12/20/11 10:03:00 PM #12: |
From: junk_funk | #011 hurr durr next contest should be based on the final match only. you can fail the first 62 as long as you get lucky on the last one! -- GameFAQs.com: Where YOU make the content, but CBS makes the money. http://lueshi.info/Mario_Zelda_Tier_List.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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AlecTrevelyan006 12/20/11 10:04:00 PM #13: |
You could have just gone straight pick.
We had 50 perfects, most weren't getting prizes. He gave you the chance to put your fate in your own hands. -- ##Alec Congrats to Guru champ SuperNiceDog! All hail our Guru overlord. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Lopen 12/20/11 10:10:00 PM #14: |
Sorry I just think it's funny when people kill themselves on Link > 70%. That's like the dumbest pick I've ever seen.
And as Timjab so elegantly put it, you're not on any leaderboards either. Difference is you killed yourself on picks that had literally no chance of happening vs getting a poll that was decided by less than 1% wrong. -- I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Xcarvenger 12/20/11 10:11:00 PM #15: |
I don't really mind about the % picking thing. 1% is a huge risk, but has a great payoff, so it's to be expected. However, one thing that could have been done much better: He should have at least decided on the final jeopardy thing way earlier than a few hours before the first semifinal. I took the Pokemon upset thinking that's the only chance I had to catch up to the perfects should it happen even if it's not likely (banked in Round 1 and Cloud > Link or Mario/Pokemon > Link are even more unlikely), and then of course Allen announced the final jeopardy thing an hour after I left the night for good, thus ruining the entire battle contest for me! And if you look at my Oracle predictions, I was 100% confident that Link will finish between 55-60% too, so I'd have picked that (but I might be tempted to do 1% on 56-57 >_>). Oh well, such is life.
-- SuperNiceDog recommends the following SuperNiceGame: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=77WDL08B ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Menji76 12/20/11 10:12:00 PM #16: |
Don't be mad you made a terrible pick. There was absolutely no reason to pick that high.
-- Menji~ by Ctrl-Alt-Del http://img.imgcake.com/menjipngre.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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pojr 12/20/11 10:18:00 PM #17: |
iGenesis, just wondering, what was your score before and after the final battle?
-- pojr [poh-ger] - Dignity, the feeling of hope, and turning over a new leaf. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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HyperSage 12/20/11 10:32:00 PM #18: |
From: XIII_rocks | #002 Indeed, greetings from Rank #22! -- http://www.backloggery.com/whitelens http://myanimelist.net/profile/WhiteLens ... Copied to Clipboard!
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#19 | Post #19 was unavailable or deleted. |
junk_funk 12/20/11 10:49:00 PM #20: |
Let's see if you can follow. To begin, I had to find out how much SFF Link would have on Mario because that would play a significant role.
To do this, I used Mario's match against Mega Man in 2010. Mario got 58.38%. Then I looked at what Link got on Mega Man in 2004 (because he's pretty stable year in and year out). Link got 67.61%. Subtracting those two numbers (67.61 - 58.38) gave me the difference in strength between the two. Right around 9.23%. After that, it was on to calculating the SFF factor. I looked at Mario's match with Link in 2010. Link won by 64.57%. If Link is 9.23% stronger, then on can calculate how much SFF was involved in that match (64.57 - 9.23 = 55.34). So in terms of SFF, Link would nab 5.34% from Mario. BUT...that was last year and this contest runs on a whole new system with the rivalry factor. Still, Link/Ganon got 57.72% on Cloud/Seph. Cloud/Seph roughly = Trainers in strength. Mario/Bowser got 55.64% on the Trainers. Based on that, one could expect Link/Ganon to get 52.08% on Mario/Bowser (57.72 - 55.64). HOWEVER, add in the SFF factor that Link will drain from Mario (52.08 + 5.34), and you come out to 57.42% in favor of Link/Ganon. That's how I arrived to my pick. Not by luck. -- http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=5364544 Congrats to SuperNiceDog! Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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RingoBell 12/20/11 11:07:00 PM #21: |
Um ... what's all this about changing rules in mid-contest?
From http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/rivals.html : New For This Contest: The Final Battle Challenge. After the 62nd battle (the second semifinal), all points will be banked, and there will be a 24-hour gap before the final battle. During that day, you can make your pick for the final battle, and wager any amount from 0 up to the total number of points you have earned in the contest so far on the outcome of the final battle. Pick correctly, and you might double your score - pick incorrectly, and you could lose it all. Sounds like somebody's upset that they didn't read the rules before the contest started. -- Ya know, one of these days I'm gonna think of something to put here... ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 12/20/11 11:09:00 PM #22: |
RingoBell posted...
Um ... what's all this about changing rules in mid-contest? From http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/rivals.html : New For This Contest: The Final Battle Challenge. After the 62nd battle (the second semifinal), all points will be banked, and there will be a 24-hour gap before the final battle. During that day, you can make your pick for the final battle, and wager any amount from 0 up to the total number of points you have earned in the contest so far on the outcome of the final battle. Pick correctly, and you might double your score - pick incorrectly, and you could lose it all. Sounds like somebody's upset that they didn't read the rules before the contest started. Bacon actually did change it; under the original rules only a straight pick would have been available. -- http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png No I'm not a damn furry. Looney Tunes are different. - Guiga ... Copied to Clipboard!
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XIII_rocks 12/20/11 11:10:00 PM #23: |
junk_funk posted...
Let's see if you can follow. To begin, I had to find out how much SFF Link would have on Mario because that would play a significant role. To do this, I used Mario's match against Mega Man in 2010. Mario got 58.38%. Then I looked at what Link got on Mega Man in 2004 (because he's pretty stable year in and year out). Link got 67.61%. Subtracting those two numbers (67.61 - 58.38) gave me the difference in strength between the two. Right around 9.23%. After that, it was on to calculating the SFF factor. I looked at Mario's match with Link in 2010. Link won by 64.57%. If Link is 9.23% stronger, then on can calculate how much SFF was involved in that match (64.57 - 9.23 = 55.34). So in terms of SFF, Link would nab 5.34% from Mario. BUT...that was last year and this contest runs on a whole new system with the rivalry factor. Still, Link/Ganon got 57.72% on Cloud/Seph. Cloud/Seph roughly = Trainers in strength. Mario/Bowser got 55.64% on the Trainers. Based on that, one could expect Link/Ganon to get 52.08% on Mario/Bowser (57.72 - 55.64). HOWEVER, add in the SFF factor that Link will drain from Mario (52.08 + 5.34), and you come out to 57.42% in favor of Link/Ganon. That's how I arrived to my pick. Not by luck. ...nice -- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. The guru champ isn't such a SuperNiceDog, he made me change my sig! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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#24 | Post #24 was unavailable or deleted. |
iGenesis 12/20/11 11:33:00 PM #25: |
From: junk_funk | #020 That's wonderful and I'm glad it worked out for you, but there are also numerous situations when x-stat computations fail. otherwise, you'd have statisticians consistently winning these contests. -- GameFAQs.com: Where YOU make the content, but CBS makes the money. http://lueshi.info/Mario_Zelda_Tier_List.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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junk_funk 12/21/11 12:13:00 AM #26: |
iGenesis posted...
you'd have statisticians consistently winning these contests. Oracles and Gurus are statisticians. That's what they use to make their picks. That's why the consistently do better than casuals. I only missed one match in the battle bracket (Gordon>Wright). I deserve the spot I got. None of the Oracles in their right minds would have taken Link > 70%. Anyone who risked 1% on that call deserved 0 points. Next time, if you're too lazy to look into the percentages, just do a straight bet and be the lucky casual you set out to be. I bet you took the majority Board's advice on every match anyways and that's why you had a perfect. I can't think of any other reason why you would go perfect and then obtusely pick Link with that high of a %. -- http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=5364544 Congrats to SuperNiceDog! Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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X_Dante_X 12/21/11 12:18:00 AM #27: |
I got 96th place, with a 20 battle streak and a straight bet on link
#swag -- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Raka_Putra 12/21/11 12:21:00 AM #28: |
ahaha.wav
-- Oh, I am one yet many. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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AlecTrevelyan006 12/21/11 9:05:00 AM #29: |
From: iGenesis | #025 Didn't you just post about how stats-topic regular Yoblazer has so often made money in these contests? -- ##Alec Congrats to Guru champ SuperNiceDog! All hail our Guru overlord. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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iGenesis 12/23/11 1:44:00 AM #30: |
From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #029 He's one person. Do other statisticians win as often as Yoblazer? Looking at past leaderboards it would appear not. If a billion monkeys were to make random picks, one of them would win every single contest. -- GameFAQs.com: Where YOU make the content, but CBS makes the money. http://lueshi.info/Mario_Zelda_Tier_List.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Princess Anri 12/23/11 2:42:00 AM #31: |
Yeah but the other 999,999,999 monkeys wouldn't whine about it.
They'd just say "gg, bro" and move on with their lives. -- Congratulations to Rafael Nadal on a Career Golden Slam. - The Mana Sword ... Copied to Clipboard!
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iGenesis 12/23/11 3:49:00 PM #32: |
From: Princess Anri | #031 yup, because gf contests are a waste of time. -- GameFAQs.com: Where YOU make the content, but CBS makes the money. http://lueshi.info/Mario_Zelda_Tier_List.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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