junk_funk posted...
Let's see if you can follow. To begin, I had to find out how much SFF Link would have on Mario because that would play a significant role.
To do this, I used Mario's match against Mega Man in 2010. Mario got 58.38%. Then I looked at what Link got on Mega Man in 2004 (because he's pretty stable year in and year out). Link got 67.61%.
Subtracting those two numbers (67.61 - 58.38) gave me the difference in strength between the two. Right around 9.23%.
After that, it was on to calculating the SFF factor. I looked at Mario's match with Link in 2010. Link won by 64.57%. If Link is 9.23% stronger, then on can calculate how much SFF was involved in that match (64.57 - 9.23 = 55.34). So in terms of SFF, Link would nab 5.34% from Mario.
BUT...that was last year and this contest runs on a whole new system with the rivalry factor. Still, Link/Ganon got 57.72% on Cloud/Seph. Cloud/Seph roughly = Trainers in strength. Mario/Bowser got 55.64% on the Trainers.
Based on that, one could expect Link/Ganon to get 52.08% on Mario/Bowser (57.72 - 55.64).
HOWEVER, add in the SFF factor that Link will drain from Mario (52.08 + 5.34), and you come out to 57.42% in favor of Link/Ganon.
That's how I arrived to my pick. Not by luck.
...nice
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