Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1035

(+) Yeah! (+)

This'll end 70/30.

Trainers no chance.

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I wonder how many of our perfects will take Trainers over Mario, and how many take Cloud over Link.

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

And I must say I'm impressed by Mario/Bowser. If this finishes at 67%, that'll be twice in a row they've "matched" Link from last year.

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

Northwest Division

Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy – 50.00%
Sora vs. Riku – 49.31%
Dante vs. Vergil – 48.47%
William B.J. Blazkowicz vs. Adolf Hitler – 39.24%
Siegfried Schtauffen vs. Nightmare – 33.24%
Ramza Beoulve vs. Delita Hyral – 29.46%
Laharl vs. Mid-Boss – 26.35%
Sol Badguy vs. Ky Kiske – 16.87%

First Quarter stats coming up in a minute.

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http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png
http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png

Perfects with bad tiebreakers will probably take upsets like Trainers over Mario or Cloud over Link. Still think we'll finish with around 50 though.

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http://img.imgcake.com/nio/2bigwigpngut.png

The bigger Mario/Trainers looks, the worse it is for Cloud. The last thing he needs is a huge Nintendo match to bring more Nintendo fans to the site.

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Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

No one will take Trainers>Mario, because speaking candidly, the Trainers cannot possibly win that.

They still got this.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Mario > Trainers. Without doubt.

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LM

Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy – 50.69% vs. Sora/Riku – 49.31% – Round 3 – 1.38%
2. Sora/Riku – 50.85% vs. Dante/Vergil – 49.15% - Round 2 – 1.70%
3. Frog/Magus – 51.51% vs. Chell/GlaDOS – 48.49% - Round 2 – 3.02%
4. Mega Man X/Zero – 52.70% vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – 47.30% - Round 3 – 5.40%
5. Alucard/Dracula – 53.25% vs. Frog/Magus – 46.75% - Round 3 – 6.50%
6. Samus Aran/Ridley – 53.47% vs. Big Boss/The Boss – 46.53% – Round 3 – 6.94%
7. Luigi/Waluigi – 55.28% vs. Cecil Harvey/Golbez – 44.72% - Round 1 – 10.56%
8. Siegfried/Nightmare – 55.68% vs. Ramza Beoulve/Delita Hyral – 44.32% - Round 1 – 11.36%
9. Frog/Magus – 56.13% vs. Raiden/Vamp – 43.87% - Round 1 – 12.26%
10. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – 56.56% vs. Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen – 43.44% - Round 1 – 13.12%

Top 10 Smallest 24h Vote Gaps
1. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy – 26064 vs. Sora/Riku – 25356 – Round 3 - 708
2. Sora/Riku – 24538 vs. Dante/Vergil – 23715 – Round 2 - 823
3. Frog/Magus – 25211 vs. Chell/GlaDOS – 23729 – Round 2 – 1482
4. Mega Man X/Zero – 27259 vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – 24462 – Round 3 – 2797
5. Alucard/Dracula – 24561 vs. Frog/Magus – 21563 – Round 3 - 2998
6. Samus Aran/Ridley – 27360 vs. Big Boss/The Boss – 23810 – Round 3 - 3550
7. Big Boss/The Boss – 25862 vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – 19833 – Round 2 – 6029
8. Alucard/Dracula – 27431 vs. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – 20976 – Round 2 – 6455
9. Samus Aran/Ridley – 30282 vs. Terra Branford/Kefka Palazzo – 19530 – Round 2 – 10752
10. Red/Blue – 35329 vs. Ryu/Ken – 23514 – Round 3 - 11815

Top 10 Most Popular 24h Polls
1. Red/Blue vs. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 – 58843
2. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth vs. Solid Snake/Liquid Snake – Round 3 - 58655
3. Link/Ganondorf vs. Amaterasu/Orochi – Round 2 – 56036
4. Red/Blue vs. Luigi/Waluigi – Round 2 – 54534
5. Mario/Bowser vs. Sonic the Hedgehog/Dr. Robotnik – Round 3 - 53823
6. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth vs. Kratos/Zeus – Round 2 - 52479
7. Mega Man/Dr. Wily vs. Zidane Tribal/Kuja – Round 2 – 52043
8. Mega Man X/Zero vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – Round 3 – 51721
9. Link/Ganondorf vs. Mega Man/Dr. Wily – Round 3 – 51706
10. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy vs. Sora/Riku – Round 3 - 51420

Top 10 Least Impressive 24h Winners
1. Sora/Riku – Round 2 – 24538
2. Alucard/Dracula – Round 3 - 24561
3. Frog/Magus – Round 2 - 25211
4. Big Boss/The Boss – Round 2 – 25862
5. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy – Round 3 - 26064
6. Mega Man X/Zero – Round 3 – 27259
7. Samus Aran/Ridley – Round 3 - 27360
8. Alucard/Dracula – Round 2 - 27431
9. Ryu/Ken – Round 2 – 29617
10. Solid Snake/Liquid Snake – Round 2 - 30137

Top 10 Most Impressive 24h Losers
1. Sora/Riku – Round 3 - 25356
2. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – Round 3 – 24462
3. Big Boss/The Boss – Round 3 - 23810
4. Chell/GlaDOS – Round 2 – 23729
5. Dante/Vergil – Round 2 – 23715
6. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 – 23514
7. Solid Snake/Liquid Snake – Round 3 - 22220
8. Frog/Magus – Round 3 - 21563
9. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – Round 2 - 20976
10. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – Round 2 – 19833

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 77/96 Today: Mario/Bowser

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Alucard/Dracula vs. Frog/Magus – Round 3 – 17.25%
2. Frog/Magus vs. Chell/GlaDOS – Round 2 – 33.41%
3. Alucard/Dracula vs. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – Round 2 – 34.09%
4. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy vs. Sora/Riku – Round 3 – 34.52%
5. Mega Man X/Zero vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – Round 3 – 34.75%
6. Big Boss/The Boss vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – Round 2 – 37.29%
7. Red/Blue vs. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 – 44.84%
8. Samus Aran/Ridley vs. Big Boss/The Boss – Round 3 – 54.17%
9. Big Boss/The Boss vs. Tidus/Jecht – Round 1 – 55.06%
10. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth vs. Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen – Round 1 – 57.30%

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 77/96 Today: Mario/Bowser

First Quarter Stats

Mario vs. Bowser – 50.00%
Mega Man X vs. Zero – 34.24%
Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion – 32.39%
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik – 29.42%
Donkey Kong vs. K. Rool – 23.01%
Kirby vs. Meta Knight – 22.24%
Ike vs. Black Knight – 19.53%
Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis – 18.47%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze vs. Rodrigo Borgia – 18.31%
Leon Kennedy vs. Ada Wong – 17.35%
Conker vs. The Great Mighty Poo – 15.85%
Katherine vs. Catherine – 15.82%
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh – 15.61%
Earthworm Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt – 14.64%
Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow – 13.39%
Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck – 11.17%

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http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png
http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png

Mario/Trainers will go exactly as Mario/Charizard went

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http://i42.tinypic.com/11jol1t.gif
Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 11th ~Today's prediction: Mario / Bowser - 68.78%

Score-Brackets-% Right
92------171--------100.00
91------19----------94.74
90------12----------91.67
89------6------------66.67
88------26----------84.62
87------71----------97.18
86------53----------77.36
85------50----------52.00
84------76----------68.42
83------70----------71.43
82------317--------84.23
81------144--------56.94
80------156--------57.05
79------221--------44.80
78------262--------48.09
77------293--------49.49
76------331--------48.34
75------418--------43.78
74------421--------42.99
73------441--------42.63
72------471--------40.76
71------534--------36.14
70------556--------36.87
69------558--------34.41
68------576--------34.03
67------582--------32.47
66------550--------33.09
65------568--------30.99
64------573--------32.11
63------577--------27.56
62------541--------29.02
61------541--------29.94
60------464--------25.00
59------462--------28.79
58------430--------23.95
57------416--------24.28
56------355--------25.92
55------346--------24.28
54------315--------25.71
53------273--------19.05
52------213--------23.47
51------226--------19.03
50------212--------21.23
49------182--------24.18
48------160--------23.13
47------129--------24.81
46------133--------20.30
45------102--------11.76
44------122--------22.13
43------92----------27.17
42------89----------11.24
41------82----------15.85
40------64----------23.44
39------45----------11.11
38------47----------12.77
37------48----------10.42
36------29----------17.24
35------35----------14.29
34------38----------13.16
33------34----------26.47
32------23----------4.35
31------19----------10.53
30------31----------16.13
29------11----------9.09
28------13----------7.69
27------9------------11.11
26------7------------14.29
25------4------------25.00

23------9------------11.11
22------6------------33.33

A Sora upset would have wiped out the perfects. Since Sora couldn't pull it off, the perfects went perfect instead. The top tiers overwhelmingly favoured Squall winning the match so only a handful of brackets within 5 points of perfect got the match wrong.

6 people fell off the Top 50. MegatokyoED, hylianknight3, Zicore, _Regaro_, MarvelousGerbil and INCEPTlON did not have Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy winning the match.

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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 12/13/2011 12:09:38 AM | #358
No one will take Trainers>Mario, because speaking candidly, the Trainers cannot possibly win that.

They still got this.

No one?

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Khali Speak:
http://www.rot13.com/

Conker vs. The Great Mighty Poo – 15.85%
Katherine vs. Catherine – 15.82%
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh – 15.61%
Earthworm Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt – 14.64%
Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow – 13.39%
Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck – 11.17%

lol

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 77/96 Today: Mario/Bowser

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4566&region=PH

the best country

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http://www.megaupload.com/?d=77WDL08B

Also, I think it's sad that the most pleasure I derive from this contest now is seeing how bad SFF is wrecking these X-Stats.

Ike vs. Black Knight is literally in the upper half of the first quarter stats.

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http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg

Squall just won a close match, cheer up!

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

From: red sox 777 | #369
Squall just won a close match, cheer up!

Last good moment of the contest is now behind us!

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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg

The best is yet to come (Cloud > Link baby)

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

Ike vs. Black Knight is literally in the upper half of the first quarter stats.

As they should be and they got SFF too.

Top tier pair.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 77/96 Today: Mario/Bowser

Is there any reason to think that Mario SFFed Sonic more than MMX?

From: TheOneAboveAll | #373
Is there any reason to think that Mario SFFed Sonic more than MMX?

It would make sense.

X/Zero beating Sonic/Robotnik also makes sense, so it's hard to say.

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http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif

Yes, MMX has always appeared to resist Nintendo SFF pretty well. He's had a bunch of matches with Mario and Link, and never gotten himself embarrassed yet.

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

It could be, but MMX/Zero > Sonic/Robotnik too.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 77/96 Today: Mario/Bowser

From: PartOfYourWorld | #350
If zero went with Sora, I'm guessing zero go with Samus.

Not so BOLD PREDICTION: We keep all 61 perfects through this entire quarterfinal round.

Samus is a far more "debatable" match and she at least has the whole noble nine aura, or at least she used to. I can see at least two or three people picking Samus there.

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*is XIII_rocks*

I definitely think Sonic's match had more SFF, based on Link's matches with both last year. That makes more sense to me, even if it means Sonic/Robotnik beating X/Zero.

Yeah despite it being close the general feeling prematch was that Squall had it.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 77/96 Today: Mario/Bowser

Oh hey, 1 person actually picked Sora/Riku in the Oracle yesterday.

Sora/Riku winning would've almost been a mini-Knux > Magus

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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Huh I swore I picked Squall/Seifer with 50.00%

Turns out my Analysis Crew cynicism spread into there too. Whoops!

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Link and Samus are having tea at Hyrule Castle.

Link: So, Samus, what is the news from abroad?
Samus: Sir, Mario is duplicating your victories from last year. Last round he defeated Sonic copying your strategy from last year, and our latest reports are that he is dismantling Megaman X using your ingenius method from last year.
Link: .........indeed? How fast is he pulling off these victories?
Samus: He's clocking in at just about the same speed you showed last year. Of course, sir, you were showing off and toying with your opponents, I know that.
Link: .........the same speed as me........very well, Samus, I've got work to do. This tea is over.

~A deserted parking lot in the worst slums of Midgar at night~

Red: I really don't think we should be here at night.
Blue: He'll show up, don't worry.
Red: What if he kidnaps us, or kills us?

Green: I am arrived.
Blue: Do you have the secret weapon?
Green: Yes, I do. Keep it inside this platinum pokeball until it is time. Do you understand?
Red: Yes.
Green: Good.

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

bah, Mario/Bowser are just dying, now

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http://i42.tinypic.com/11jol1t.gif
Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 11th ~Today's prediction: Mario / Bowser - 68.78%

Wow, this contest doesn't even lend itself towards Red Sox writing good fanfic. Bad contest indeed...

Nothing to write about

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

MK > Sonic

lololol, thanks Mario

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:>

I know. Not blaming you at all for that. It was a valiant effort...

So if we assume X/Zero=Ryu/Ken roughly, and there is no SFF here, then Mario/Bowser should get mid to upper 50's on the Trainers. Assuming no Trainers bandwagon.

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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

From: Team Rocket Elite | #364
MegatokyoED, hylianknight3, Zicore, _Regaro_, MarvelousGerbil and INCEPTlON did not have Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy winning the match.

...I was on the leaderboard with that bracket too?

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http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png

SFF in this match and a bandwagon next round both seem fairly likely to me. This will be the farthest Pokemon has ever gotten in a contest.

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

Yesterday's chart:

Time | Squalfer | Soriku | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 50.07% | 49.93% | 729 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 49.38% | 50.62% | 4992 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 52.98% | 47.02% | 10240 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 53.78% | 46.22% | 5621 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 52.28% | 47.72% | 11948 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 47.51% | 52.49% | 15619 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 49.47% | 50.53% | 3000 | (22:00-24:00)

Finally, a chart that's actually interesting.

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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Also, congrats to Squall for two straight contests of winning a match despite losing in the U.S.

Not an easy feat!

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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

Interesting, the DSV now has higher average vote intake than the ASV (using the time periods defined in the chart). My guess is using an ASV of 3-8 PM, it would probably still be higher than the DSV, but not by much. And in another year, that may be gone too.

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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2

That would explain why the ASV seems more diluted this year.

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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Damn, if Sora/Riku had pulled it off I'd be coming first in the battle challenge =/

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"I am riding the Poke-wave, using the metaphorical Surf and hopping on my Blastoise, all the way to Mario vs Bowser." - RPGLord

Mario/Bowser finish the hour 0.01% off from where they were at the freeze.

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http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png
http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png

At the time of our last age poll, we still had about 17% of the site under 18 at the time. I'll be willing to bet that falls to below 10% within the next 3 years.

Though I wonder how much better the ASV would have been today if we still had a 3:00 AM start time.

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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!

KamikazePotato posted...
the Trainers.

They still got this.

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"I am riding the Poke-wave, using the metaphorical Surf and hopping on my Blastoise, all the way to Mario vs Bowser." - RPGLord

...I was on the leaderboard with that bracket too?

Yep, you did. You entered the leader in 34th place after Alucard/Dracula beat Frog/Magus and stayed in 34th until you fell off.

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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place

Awesome X back on the leaderboard!

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http://img.imgcake.com/alec1pngus.png

Side note: How good were GameFAQs anti-cheating measures in the early days?

I was remembering Bacon's topic about how Crono fans tried to cheat more than Missingno fans. Is it possible that a significant part of his decline over the years is due to the improved ability to prevent cheating?

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http://i41.tinypic.com/xq0ro.png -XIIIiscool's Advent Calendar