Board 8 > The Return of Would You Take a 1% Chance of Death for a Million Dollars?

(+) Yeah! (+)

99% of the time you get a million dollars. 1% of the time you get a bullet to the brain. You can use the million dollars in any way you'd like, and it's all tax-free.

Do you take the offer?

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Eh, prolly

Sure.

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Nope.

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Probably not.

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darkx [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
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I suppose.

At least the death is quick and I'd assume painless.

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No, 1 million isn't enough. Though with more I still might not do it despite thinking that it'd probably be rational.

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90s games > 00s games

Definately.

Would probably do it for less too.

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absolutely not...inflation is a ***** right now anyway but I would probably consider 10 million.

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Yup. The f*** else do I have to live for? Let's do it right now.

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Kiwi

No.

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Hell yeah

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Last time I said I would take it at a 10% chance, I think. I would increase it to 25% now.

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No.

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Yup

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For 25%, you are probably seriously undervaluing your own life. Even if you care nothing for your relationships, enjoyment of life, etc. and valued your life solely for your earnings potential, to take this at 25% means you must value your earnings potential at less than 3 million.

If you make 100k for 40 years, that's 4 million right there, a lot more with good investments. With 3% annual real GDP growth and 3% inflation, in 40 years someone who makes 100k now will be making 1 million. Or, someone making 10k now will be making 100k. Now, granted, the nice thing about taking the million is that you've got the money now instead of later so you can start investing it immediately, but even so, I think you are seriously selling yourself short at 25%.

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90s games > 00s games

I would not do this for any amount of money, by the way. I think you guys are vastly overestimating the extent to which happiness is correlated to wealth (extremely weakly once you get past poverty levels).

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With a million dollars, I could buy the best camera there is, buy some friends and a girl, and be welcomed into the film industry. All I need is money.

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Kiwi

LordoftheMorons posted...
I would not do this for any amount of money, by the way. I think you guys are vastly overestimating the extent to which happiness is correlated to wealth (extremely weakly once you get past poverty levels).

I think you severely underestimate how much a large sum of money being dropped on you out of the blue can change your life.

There's a difference between going from 50k a year to 60k a year and being in college/highschool and suddenly having a million dollars.

Either way.

yes, 1%.

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Yeah yeah yeah, happiness doesn't rise much once you can cover all your needs, debts, and expenses, whatever.

Gimme money.

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Pretty_Odd posted...
With a million dollars, I could buy the best camera there is, buy some friends and a girl, and be welcomed into the film industry. All I need is money.

Buy some friends?
...are you serious?

Anyway, look at lottery winners; a year later, most of them are no better off than when they started.

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From: LordoftheMorons | #021
Pretty_Odd posted...
With a million dollars, I could buy the best camera there is, buy some friends and a girl, and be welcomed into the film industry. All I need is money.

Buy some friends?
...are you serious?

Anyway, look at lottery winners; a year later, most of them are no better off than when they started.

That's because people who play the lottery are idiots.

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No. I mean it would substantially improve my quality of life sure but that's not worth the risk (however small) of you know... not having life at all.

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-Merc

I would do it if I was signed up for cryonics and could precommit to donating to the most efficient charity I can find.

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No.

10 Million and yes.

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Chrono1219

From: LordoftheMorons | #021
Pretty_Odd posted...
With a million dollars, I could buy the best camera there is, buy some friends and a girl, and be welcomed into the film industry. All I need is money.

Buy some friends?
...are you serious?

Anyway, look at lottery winners; a year later, most of them are no better off than when they started.

Yes. People are gold diggers. If I had a lot of money and bought them things, they would suddenly start liking me. Yes, I'm sad.

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Kiwi

Yep

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11.11.11

You can't buy that much for a million these days. It's not what it used to be. It's not enough to retire on, much less start buying friends. And remember, if you're just saving that money, you start off losing about 40k per year to inflation.

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90s games > 00s games

1%?
Yes.

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Ni!

I think it's worth it just once.

It's pretty much guaranteed, and it's not like the chances of you surviving to making your next million naturally is 100 percent.
Having it all at once could really jumpstart your moneymaking schemes.

I would take that offer.

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no u

From an expected value point of view, yeah, at 1% taking it is probably a positive expected value decision unless you already have a lot of capital or earnings. You do have to worry about inflation, but you can more or less beat inflation by investing in stocks.

But there are other considerations, namely that your life is worth a lot even if you were going to have 0 earnings the rest of your life. I wouldn't fault someone for taking it at the 1% level, but 10% is probably short selling oneself substantially, for someone who's gone to college or is in college.

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90s games > 00s games

Yes, easily. Would probably agree to it up to 25%, don't really care about all the arguments pointing out how stupid that is.

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"We like to think the past doesn't have any effect on us, but ignorance of the past can be as dangerous as a ticking bomb."

1 million is reeeeaaaally on the edge for what I'd consider at the 1% level. 10 million I'd be somewhat more inclined to take it... 100 million and it's a no brainer.

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Yeah.

Let's see how lucky I am.

http://www.random.org/
Result: 22

If you consider "1" to be death.

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Okay, I rolled a 14. What's that mean? Hsu
That you're a cheater. This is a 12-sided die. Chan

This is one of those wacky things, I believe according to the statistics anytime I get in my car I'm taking way higher than 1% chance of dying, and nobody's paying me.

So in this hypothetical situation, yes I would take the money. Not to say I laugh in the face of death, but 1% is amazingly low, and we do so many more risky things for no money.

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No, I presume you've been in a car much more than 100 times in your life, and will many more thousands of times. Your chance from dying from a car accident may reach 1% after a few decades or at least years, but it's far far lower than that for 1 car trip.

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90s games > 00s games

Just googled it, and apparently by being my age and by driving an SUV my odds are extra bad too. =O

Gimme some money folks.

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You do realize you are getting a huge benefit from being able to drive, right? Which would you take, a million dollars or the ability to drive for the rest of your life?

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90s games > 00s games

You do realize that if you had even a 1% chance of dying in any given chance of a car ride that you'd only have a 36.6% chance of surviving a mere 100 car rides right.

I guess you don't drive much.

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No problem!
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Well I don't know about him but my point is that you have no grasp of basic probability if you think your chances of dying in a typical car ride is anywhere near 1%

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Not sure what your point is, I'm not complaining saying I feel in danger by driving. I'm pointing out that there are risks everywhere, and 99% are nice odds to have on your side.

Also, not saying I'm hitting this magic money button every day, it's a one time thing, insanely low risk. Also never said that any one car ride has higher 1% or more of me dieing. So it wouldn't be that I don't drive much, the more often I drive the higher that chance of death would be.

I'll only accept the million dollars and never drive again if I have a really hot wife who drives for me.

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I'd like it if you also offered me some money Lopen, maybe for not using a microwave? I'll take the cash.

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One Piece: Pirates with style!
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I'll offer you money to take a probability class instead?

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I never said what you're saying I said, when I say "anytime I get in my car" it's not a literal statement of "every time I get in a car I take precisely 1% chance of dying".

I challenge you to take a giving me money class instead.

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Yeah, I probably would take this.

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Have you ever tried succeeding at something with 1% odds? *spins the Russian Roulette wheel* 17. I'm safe.

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If you "didn't say what I'm saying you said" perhaps we should start with an English class then.

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Ornery fella.

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Yes


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