Due to the overwhelming amount of games available to choose from, I'm not going to be posting lines from every game available. You will find and use lines on your own from whatever legitimate source you choose. We will be using a limited honor system here. You post the line you find, and I'll cross-check it with the source I use. I'll allow you a 2-point window in either direction. In other words, if your line is within two points of mine, I'll accept your line. If it's more than two points away, I'll let you know, and you can either change your pick or use my line. If a neutral party (neither myself nor the original picker) wishes to challenge my line, we can work it out over an AIM chat or something. Please note, the window is NOT there for the purpose of allowing you to pad your lines or anything. Be honest about the lines you fine. Honor system applies here.
However, since some of you probably won't want to do exhaustive research, I will post around five "spotlight games" each week. For the spotlight games, my lines must be used.
You may submit your picks at any time prior to the first game you are picking. All games must be picked in one post, meaning, if you want to pick a Thursday game and two Saturday games, you must pick all three games prior to the first game starting. Once any of your games have started, you may not change any of your picks. If you are going to change picks, DELETE AND REPOST. Do not edit your post. Any edited posts will not count.
Unless otherwise noted, every game picked must meet the following criteria: At least ONE of the teams involved must either be a member of a BCS conference, or ranked in the Top 25. BOTH teams must be members of Division 1-A, bowl division, whatever the hell it's called these days. For levels involving player-specific props, the spread of the game you are picking must be under 20.
The "week" will run Thursday - Monday. No games played on Tuesday or Wednesday are eligible for prediction until Championship Week. I'm thinking of including Bowl Season in this contest and doing something totally different for it, but haven't worked out the details yet. Keep this in mind so you don't accuse me of "changing the rules midway through." I'm warning you that such a change is coming now.
ATS = against the spread. OU = over/under. SU = straight up. If you don't know what these things mean, learn. We'll be using them frequently.
I will be participating myself. If anyone has any objections or thinks I'm doing anything unfairly, feel free to call me out and we'll sort it out. There's no prize here, it's all in good fun, fair competition among fans is encouraged!
Level 6: Variety Parlay - Pick three games. One favorite ATS, one dog ATS, and one game O/U. All three must be correct. No pushes.
Level 5: Winners, winners, winners - Pick one winner (SU) from each of the six BCS conferences. At least two of your picks must be favored by single digits or less. All six must win.
Level 4: Pick one game ATS. You must pick a road team who is favored.
Level 3: The Jakyl Tier - Three game teaser (pick three games ATS, add six points in your favor to each spread, all games must win, you may advance with ONE push)
Level 2: Pick three games OU. Must get two or more correct to advance.
Level 1: Pick one game ATS.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/gadsdenflaggifda.gif
Eh. I could've gone with Wisconsin over Michigan State instead which I didn't see at first (and I thought the line would be higher than 10 anyway) but it'll be a lot funnier to have something riding on the Cougs beating the Beavs.
ACC: Boston College @ Virginia Tech Big East: West Virginia @ Syracuse Big Ten: Penn State (-4) @ Northwestern Big XII: Oklahoma State (-7) @ Missouri Pac-12: Oregon @ Colorado SEC: Tennessee @ Alabama
But the moment the line moves under 10 points for Vanderbilt or Kansas State, I want one of those (if it's Vandy, then replace Oklahoma State with Oklahoma for the Big XII pick. The line seems to be moving in the wrong direction for K-State anyway, but if Vandy and K-State both drop below 10-point favorites, I want Vandy and Oklahoma, not Alabama and K-State)
Putting that out there preemptively, just in case they decide to wait until Saturday morning to move the line that low (because West Virginia is a Friday game and I would be locked in by then.)
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Indiana Hoosiers (+24) @ Iowa Hawkeyes Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan St. Spartans (+8.5) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-25.5) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Going all Big Ten this week and yes. If Purdue can stomp all over Minnesota then surely Nebraska can. Also, I don't care how bad Indiana is, I do not trust Iowa's offense
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"Anybody interested in grabbing a couple of burgers and hittin' the cemetery?" -Royal "Oh sure, walk to the sun"- Guybrush
Note to self: Be more alert where these picks are concerned. Actually seeing that the line on the one I really wanted for one of my single-digit spreads did open as a single-digit spread and moved. Still, I guess there's hope--the open for Kansas State-Kansas was 15 points, and it's down to like 11, even though I'd first seen it even lower at 10.5.
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SmartMuffin posted... For Level 6, can I pick the same game for a spread and o/u or do I need to pick three different games?
Just to keep things interesting, I'm gonna go ahead and say no. You gotta pick three different games.
Oh, I don't know, I think it could be interesting if you pick the same one for spread and o/u. Hell, if you picked the under, you could end up eliminating yourself before the over even hits because maintaining the under would prevent you from hitting the spread!
For example, say you had...wait, let me just find one where a defensive struggle sounds logical...okay, got it, let's say you have a lot of faith in Florida State's defense, but not so much faith in their offense, so you picked both Maryland +16.5 and under 55. Only it turns out that that defense of theirs is too good, and by the end of the first half they already have three interception-return touchdowns and upon getting a touchdown on the opening drive of the second half lead 38-7. You're still 10 points below the over/under line, but Maryland needs 15 more points to cover the spread, so you can't win. Interesting!
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Spotlight games: Auburn +21.5 at LSU (47) Wisconsin -7 at Michigan State (49) Washington +21 at Stanford (62.5) Georgia Tech +2.5 at Miami (62) Oklahoma State -7 at Missouri (69.5)
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/gadsdenflaggifda.gif
Well, Washington has had absolutely no problem moving the ball on any defense they've faced so far, so they'll get their points, and they're only getting better as Price is getting healthier. Their defense has been crappy but their worst two games were the first two of the season, and the points they've given up in their Pac-12 games so far (23, 14, 24) don't look so bad. They've been good on the road so far.
On the other hand, their pass defense is awful and they're up against Andrew Luck. I would take Washington +21 personally but you do so at your own risk.
Holy s*** I wish I picked Arizona right now. I've been stubbornly insistent all year that Arizona's better than UCLA but it's only now finally playing out that way.
I'm not one to listen to pundits predicting upsets, but finding out that Penn State will be minus their top receiver is kind of scary. Also, looking at who Purdue got their three wins against--and more importantly, who dealt them their first loss--you could easily make a case for Purdue being the #10 team in the Big Ten. (Indiana and Minnesota are obviously #11 and #12, though I'm not sure in what order.)
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Goddamn interceptions. At least they managed to force a 3-and-out, actually get the ball back before the half. Maybe they can at least get a field goal to cut it to 21-12 before the half.
nvm, not enough time.
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LOL Syracuse, celebrating when they didn't actually get the stop.
Then again, when the ball's inside the 1 yard line and it's fourth down, it's an easy assumption to make that keeping them out of the end zone=getting the stop.
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Okay, I'm not going to lie. I knew West Virginia was overrated as hell. Their ranking made no sense, they had done nothing to earn it, and being in the Big East only hurts my opinion of them. There was no way they were the #11 team or whatever.
But I could never have seen a near 3 TD loss to Syracuse coming. Not in a million years.
God, I hate the Big East. Take the damn AQ status away from this conference already, it's embarrassing.
From: Paratroopa1 | #037 Okay, I'm not going to lie. I knew West Virginia was overrated as hell. Their ranking made no sense, they had done nothing to earn it, and being in the Big East only hurts my opinion of them. There was no way they were the #11 team or whatever.
But I could never have seen a near 3 TD loss to Syracuse coming. Not in a million years.
God, I hate the Big East. Take the damn AQ status away from this conference already, it's embarrassing.
I did :D
Don't look at the rutgers score >_> but at least it makes sense of why in a round where I had to pick someone favored that I picked a dog
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yE frE me Kweku Ananse Papa me:http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/1508/masterplumgm3.jpg
Well, I'm not shocked that WV lost, but I am a bit shocked that they got the friggin' doors blown off of them. There was no good pick in the Big East, really - the Big East alone is making level 6 way harder than it would be otherwise, because it's an ugly combination of no good teams + very few matchups + I don't know s*** about any of them.
Paratroopa1 posted... Well, I'm not shocked that WV lost, but I am a bit shocked that they got the friggin' doors blown off of them. There was no good pick in the Big East, really - the Big East alone is making level 6 way harder than it would be otherwise, because it's an ugly combination of no good teams + very few matchups + I don't know s*** about any of them.
Well, I'm from NJ, so Big East is my territory...and I should've known better than to pick a favorite, because my rule of thumb when picking Big East games is to think about what would make sense and then predict that the opposite will happen.
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Badgers want revenge from last year's loss, MSU is riding high after beating Michigan four years straight, and MSU is overrated because they scraped one out against the previously overrated Michigan.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://img.imgcake.com/Icon/Punkjpguh.jpg
Okay, guess it's time to start thinking about Week 9 picks for level 5.
ACC: Florida State Big East: Louisville Big XII: Texas Pac-12: Arizona State SEC: ...Auburn, I guess. Only other one that seems safe is Arkansas, but especially in the SEC, I'm reluctant to take a road team.
Holding off on making a pick for the Big Ten until I actually see lines--and results from tonight's late games, for that matter. Curious to see how Penn State does, because they're a possibility, and who wins the Wisconsin-MSU game will probably affect which is more likely to get a small enough line to be one of the two favored by less than 10. Louisville, obviously, is the other one--I fully expect the Cardinals to be a home underdog because they're facing Syracuse, who will be vastly overestimated after their win over West Virginia. Take a look at their first six games: Overtime win over Wake Forest (a decent team this year, but not a powerhouse--and OT wins are never impressive), 7-point win over Rhode Island, 21-point loss to USC, OT win over Toledo which would have been a regulation loss if not for an atrociously botched call (upon scoring a touchdown to take a 29-27 lead, the ensuing extra point attempt went wide, but was called good--and was then reviewed and still called good; Toledo kicked a game-tying field goal that should've given them a 30-29 lead.), double-OT loss to Rutgers, 3-point win over Tulane. Very small margins of victory over poor teams, and decidedly mediocre overall disguised by that win they didn't deserve. Last night was really their first good game all year.
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