Board 8 > MLB Stats and Discussion Topic #7: Ain't Baseball Great?

(+) Yeah! (+)

That's ok, soon Fielder will realize he wont get 30 mil a year from the big markets and have to take some disappointing deal with the Cubs or Blue Jays or...Marlins?

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Cubs, probably.

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Rangers could use a 1B

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Fire Todd Haley

shucks, no more LoMo for the season.

Go Brewers!

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1.) Tigers
2.) D'Backs
3.) Rays
4.) Brewers
5.) Rangers
6.) Yankees
7.) Phillies
8.) Cardinals

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aaaaaaaa
uuuuuuuu
gggggggg
hhhhhhhh

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playoff predictions made in ten minutes that will probably be completely wrong

Yankees > Tigers in 4
Rangers > Rays in 5
Phillies > Cardinals in 4
Brewers > Diamondbacks in 3

Yankees > Rangers in 6
Phillies > Brewers in 6

Yankees > Phillies in 7

can't wait to see how wrong I am

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Yankees > Tigers in 4
Rangers > Rays in 4
Phillies > Cardinals in 3
Diamondbacks > Brewers in 5

Yankees > Rangers in 5
Diamondbacks > Phillies in 6

Diamondbacks > Yankees in 7

Ian Kennedy WSMVP :D

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So to make last night's win more epicn remember some stats too. Boston blew a 99.6 chance. The sox were 76 and 0 all season at losing games when leading after 8, the yankees haven't blown a 7 run lead after leading for 7 innings in about 60 years, the rays had a .06 percent chance to win the wild card, and a guy who was in the minors earlier tied the game for them. Said guy was .103 after 83 at bats.

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The playoffs are a total crapshoot and I have about zero chance of being right, but eh, it'll be fun if I'm almost right.

Yankees > Tigers in 5
Rangers > Rays in 4
Phillies > Cardinals in 5
Brewers > Diamondbacks in 5

Yankees > Rangers in 7
Phillies > Brewers in 5

Phillies > Yankees in 6

What boring picks. Pretty sure I just picked the team with the better record to win every series. Also pretty sure that would be the first time since the introduction of the wildcard that ever happened.

Also did anyone happen to catch this last night?



That kid was actually crying in the stands during the broadcast. I felt sorta bad for him. Not that there weren't kids in St. Louis ready to cry if the Cardinals hadn't made it, I'm sure.

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Guys, this is amazing


http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7033950/a-running-diary-game-162

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My rankings:

1. Phillies
2. Rangers
3. Rays
4. Diamondbacks
5. Tigers
6. Brewers
7. Cardinals
8. Yankees

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masterplum posted...
Guys, this is amazing


http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7033950/a-running-diary-game-162

I might be slowly dying of schadenfreude.

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Playoff predictions:

Tigers > Yankees in 5. I find this to be most likely, followed by Yankees > Tigers in 4 and then Tigers > Yankees in 3. Sabathia, as good as he is, is not Justin Verlander, so I see the Tigers taking Game 1. Sabathia has a proven track record of being able to come back on short rest and perform well, and the Yankees' rotation has plenty of question marks, so I figure that regardless of the situation, CC would come back for Game 4, whereas if they were up 2 games to 1 after three, the Tigers might try to close it out with Porcello knowing that they could just pitch Verlander in Game 5 if needed (since if I'm not mistaken, the Game 4 starter would have to go on short rest again if you wanted to use him in Game 1 of the ALCS). So Game 4 probably belongs to the Yankees, and Game 5 if it gets that far probably belongs to the Tigers. It's Games 2 and 3 that could go either way, so if they split those two, I figure it'll be Detroit in 5, and if one or the other takes both...it would be Yankees in 4 or Tigers in 3.

Rangers-Rays: Wait, now they're listing Shields as the Game 1 starter? I could've sworn they had said they were going with Niemann! Okay, so even though Big Game James will be going on short rest, the Rays are somehow managing to actually get their rotation semi-close to set. The Rays have also recently shown a flare for the dramatic, and Texas's bullpen isn't terribly good. Uh...let's go with Rays > Rangers in 4.

Phillies > Cardinals in 3. The Cards have been extremely hot lately, but it's hard to argue with that rotation of Phillies. Hmm...well, okay, after last night's performance, I'll be willing to give the Cards Game 3 at home with Carpenter on the mound. So maybe Phillies in 4.

Brewers-Diamondbacks: You want me to predict this? I don't follow the NL as closely, and it's hard for me to root against either of these teams. I think the Brewers are the better team, but I just want this series to go the full five games. So I'll say Brewers in 5.

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so we got a nice little day off today, cool. Gonna relax and wait for tomorrow.

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*~Swift~*

From: masterplum | #061
Guys, this is amazing


http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7033950/a-running-diary-game-162

lol I love the misery of red sox fans.

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yea it's deserved really

annoying fans that think they deserve all this magic after a couple of years of success

So Theo Epstein pulls his best Brian Cashman only for it to blow up in his face.

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*~Swift~*

Some more links I find amusing.

Handy Timeline of Events from Last Night: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7033428/breakdown-wednesday-games

Another Liveblog (from an impartial source, and therefore devoid of schadenfreude I'm afraid): http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/28/live-analysis-baseballs-pennant-race/

AL Wildcard Odds Throughout the Night: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reliving-the-final-day-in-the-al-visually

Dave Cameron's (head writer at fangraphs) Terrible 2011 Predictions: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/more-predictions-that-will-be-wrong/

I would feel bad for him if he didn't have an amazing ability to combine smugness and wrongness (not in that particular article).

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Those looking for Red Sox tears... (warning, huge pages)

Game Thread Part 1: http://www.overthemonster.com/2011/9/28/2456606/game-162-win-or-likely-go-home#comments

Game Thread Part 2: http://www.overthemonster.com/2011/9/28/2457048/the-did-that-really-just-happen-overflow-thread#comments

Seriously worth skimming through the roughly two thousand comments to see the whining once everything went south. There was a similar scene on the Braves sites, but I think people will appreciate this more.

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Yeah, largest September lead ever blown, but that's just an arbitrary division of time on a calendar. The Cardinals were 10 games out on August 27. The last time the Rays were 10 games out of a playoff spot? August 7--although they were 10 games behind the Red Sox as recently as August 10, while the Sox were still division leaders.

Did the Red Sox have one of the biggest collapses of all time? Definitely. But there's no way to call it definitively the biggest collapse of all time. There's the Braves' collapse this year, in which a slightly larger margin was made up in a slightly longer period of time. There's the '07 Mets, who didn't lose as big a lead but did so in a much shorter period of time. There's the '64 Phillies, who managed to lose a 6.5-game lead with less than two weeks left in the season. And then there's the oddity of 1914.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=1914-07-04

Those are the standings on the 4th of July. (Yes, this was during the brief period in which there was a third league, the Federal League. Ignore that.) Take a look at the National League standings in particular. See that team in last place? They won the World Series that year. Granted, the season started later back then and there was no All-Star Break, so the midpoint of the season wasn't actually until about mid-July.

Actually, that one can't be pawned off as anyone "collapsing". When a team that's only trailing one or two teams (or three; the Yankees were in fourth place when they started their run from 14 back in 1978) comes through, it could be called a collapse, but it's very hard for a team to come back from being that far buried without doing some amazing stuff in their own right. After starting 26-40, the 1914 Braves finished on a 68-19 run--a .782 winning percentage. More recently...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/date/20070915

Fourth in their own division, fourth in the wild card race, run off an 11-game winning streak to get to the final series of the year with the division leader, knowing that a sweep will guarantee them at least...actually, the only guarantee at the start of that D-Backs-Rockies series was that if the Rockies swept, the Diamondbacks wouldn't be in the postseason. Even then, the Rockies were merely tied for second in the wild-card race and were third in their division. If the Rockies, Mets, Phillies, and Padres were all to sweep their final series, there would've been one-game playoffs, first between the Mets and Phillies and then between the loser of that series and the Rockies. The Rox lost the first game, guaranteeing the D-Backs a postseason spot thanks to the Mets losing as well, but then with an elimination number of 1, the Rockies started another run, taking the last two to force a playoff with San Diego, winning in dramatic fashion, and sweeping the first two rounds of the playoffs. That's what a team of destiny looks like, even if they were stopped cold in the World Series.

Who really stands out as a team of destiny this year? Tough to tell. The Rays certainly made a nice comeback to get a playoff spot, but they were aided by Boston choking--I'd consider the Cardinals to be closer to those Rockies. Detroit, Arizona, and Milwaukee all had big runs late in the season...I think I like Detroit the best here. Remember how they were saying that Boston hadn't won consecutive games since late August? Detroit hasn't lost consecutive games since late August. None of the other seven playoff teams can say that.

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I like Detroit's chances against anybody in the first 2 rounds. They won the season series against the New York, Texas and Tampa Bay. New York especially is impressive because that was way before all the trade deadline deals that transformed them from a mediocre team to a playoff team.

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I know I'm a little late to the party


but HOLY **** you can't make last night up!

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The Resurrection

Rad Link 5 posted...
Some more links I find amusing.

Handy Timeline of Events from Last Night: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7033428/breakdown-wednesday-games

Eh, it's more exciting when they actually do that on TV. Oh, wait, that's MLB Network, not ESPN.

Another Liveblog (from an impartial source, and therefore devoid of schadenfreude I'm afraid): http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/28/live-analysis-baseballs-pennant-race/

Nice. And yeah, that reminds me of the other thing I'd been thinking about this season: Haven't the Red Sox been doing the same thing with Aceves that the Yankees have been accused of doing to so many pitchers (including Scott Proctor) in the Joe Torre era? It seems like Aceves is out there every night. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he isn't as effective next year; he's been overworked.

AL Wildcard Odds Throughout the Night: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reliving-the-final-day-in-the-al-visually

Interesting that the graph itself shows Boston with a nearly 90% chance at one point, but the accompanying text gives them only about an 81% chance. And looking at the play log, I'm inclined to believe the graph--when the Yanks had runners at first and third with none out, Tampa's win % is listed at 18.2%. The Red Sox' win percentage was at 95.3% following the first two outs with nobody on, so if those moments really did sync up...

Percentage chance of Red Sox winning and Rays losing: .953 * .818 = .779554 = 78% (since they're rounding to tenths of a percent)
Percentage chance of both teams winning: .953 * .182 = .173446 = 17.3%
Percentage chance of both teams losing: .047 * .818 = .038446 = 3.8%
Percentage chance of Rays winning and Red Sox losing: .047 * .182 = .008554 = 0.9%

So 78% that Red Sox win outright, 21.1% that it goes to a one-game playoff (which they're considering a 50-50 proposition), and 0.9% chance that Rays win outright. Splitting the 21.1...yeah, that's about an 89% chance that the Red Sox win it at that point. Assuming that those percentages really mean anything, anyway.

Dave Cameron's (head writer at fangraphs) Terrible 2011 Predictions: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/more-predictions-that-will-be-wrong/

I would feel bad for him if he didn't have an amazing ability to combine smugness and wrongness (not in that particular article).

Ooh. Yeah, that's painful. A Boston-Atlanta series, after the way things ended...and LOL at the Crawford prediction.

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Just noticed Cabrera won the AL Batting Title

nice rebound from the drunk driving incident to begin spring training!

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From: Swifticuffs | #067
yea it's deserved really

annoying fans that think they deserve all this magic after a couple of years of success

So Theo Epstein pulls his best Brian Cashman only for it to blow up in his face.

The difference is that Cashman knows what he is doing when he puts together a team generally. He doesn't (usually) get guys who are going to flounder and screw up the season or get hurt and disappear (except Pavano but I don't know the story behind that, and Kevin Brown but that was a while ago).

Coming from someone who hates BoSox and Yankees equally, the BoSox fans are more irritating and their front office just doesn't have whatever it is that Cashman has.

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Fly Eagles Fly, On the Road to Victory!
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nah cashman is terrible at signing pitching really

sans prospects really his acquisitions for pitching are CC

Colon for a bit.... Garcia for a bit...


and years and years of lol. good for bullpen though.

Anyway I'm probably missing game 2 of my ALDS (yanks) as I fly back from Cali to NYC. OMFG I think I may die on the plane from torment. If there is no internet on this flight except for first class i will UPGRADE. Yanks mean that much to me, my dad was already pissed learning he had to pick me up during the game if it's a night game or during the end if it's a mid afternoon game.

God I love my family haha

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*~Swift~*

Well, I'm going to take consolation knowing that we probably would have lost in the ALDS anyway. I don't think we've won a series since August, so no reason we could have started now when we can't even win against the Orioles.

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90s games > 00s games

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 9/29/2011 1:16:22 PM | #077
Well, I'm going to take consolation knowing that we probably would have lost in the ALDS anyway. I don't think we've won a series since August, so no reason we could have started now when we can't even win against the Orioles.

didn't you just say before you guys would beat the Yankees in a 7 game set by outscoring us?

Sorry, but XMFD

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*~Swift~*

Predix:

Rays > Rangers 3-1
Yankees > Tigers 3-1
Phillies > Cardinals 3-0
Brewers > Diamondbacks 3-2

Rays > Yankees 4-3
Phillies > Brewers 4-2

Phillies > Rays 4-3

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90s games > 00s games

didn't you just say before you guys would beat the Yankees in a 7 game set by outscoring us?

I had no confidence in them beating any team except the Yankees.

Also, in the scenario that they did somehow win the ALDS, that would mean that something must have turned around simply by virtue of them winning that series.

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90s games > 00s games

From: Swifticuffs | #076
nah cashman is terrible at signing pitching really

sans prospects really his acquisitions for pitching are CC

Colon for a bit.... Garcia for a bit...

that is just not true. he took Mike Mussina away from my Orioles in 2001, and don't forget El Duque.

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From: Kirby Driver Reborn | Posted: 9/29/2011 1:32:40 PM | #081
that is just not true. he took Mike Mussina away from my Orioles in 2001, and don't forget El Duque.

muss never won the big game for us, see 2004, but did it in 2003 so maybe you're right on ONE account. Scouting on Duq also but he has had far more pitching blunders. Sans Burnett's 2009, there's a flop. Kevin Brown, Vasquez, Pavano, etc etc

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*~Swift~*

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 9/29/2011 1:21:14 PM | #080
didn't you just say before you guys would beat the Yankees in a 7 game set by outscoring us?

I had no confidence in them beating any team except the Yankees.

Also, in the scenario that they did somehow win the ALDS, that would mean that something must have turned around simply by virtue of them winning that series.

how? there was no "curse" over us. You started dynamite versus us and then we slapped you around for 2 series in a row. You'd never beat us, sorry.

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*~Swift~*

From: Swifticuffs | #082
muss never won the big game for us, see 2004, but did it in 2003 so maybe you're right on ONE account. Scouting on Duq also but he has had far more pitching blunders. Sans Burnett's 2009, there's a flop. Kevin Brown, Vasquez, Pavano, etc etc

yeah definitely. he's had a lot of mistakes but hey at least he didn't sign Daisuke right? lmao.

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he had a signing like daisuke. kei igawa.

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*~Swift~*

From: Swifticuffs | #082
muss never won the big game for us, see 2004, but did it in 2003 so maybe you're right on ONE account. Scouting on Duq also but he has had far more pitching blunders. Sans Burnett's 2009, there's a flop. Kevin Brown, Vasquez, Pavano, etc etc

Cashman just has an annoying habit of signing NL pitchers that cannot or can no longer handle AL lineups.

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From: Articuno2001 | Posted: 9/29/2011 1:45:40 PM | #086
Cashman just has an annoying habit of signing NL pitchers that cannot or can no longer handle AL lineups.

true true

btw to kirby I believe you're the one who mentioned ian kennedy mvp and dbacks over yanks in 7 with a dumb smile lol

That three way trade benefited all 3 teams. Kennedy couldn't handle AL East NYC pressure, Granderson is perfect for us, a rookie like Jackson strikes out too much for a NY lineup and got his chance in detroit where he's prospered, and kennedy has no major league lineups to pitch to on average and a quiet area where fans don't show up

perfect trade, yanks won't regret it and wish kennedy the best.

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*~Swift~*

From: Swifticuffs | #085
he had a signing like daisuke. kei igawa.

Igawa was terrible, but he didn't get paid like Daisuke did, did he? Jeff Weaver was pretty bad too.

Granderson worked out wonderfully, he might be the MVP of the AL, I just find it funny the Yankees have all these pitching issues and gave away Kennedy who might win the NL Cy Young.

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From: Kirby Driver Reborn | Posted: 9/29/2011 2:01:06 PM | #088
Igawa was terrible, but he didn't get paid like Daisuke did, did he? Jeff Weaver was pretty bad too.

Granderson worked out wonderfully, he might be the MVP of the AL, I just find it funny the Yankees have all these pitching issues and gave away Kennedy who might win the NL Cy Young.

he got paid pretty good

and the yanks had hughes, nova, and kennedy

chance they gave away the wrong one?

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*~Swift~*

i mean nova is amazing... hughes was their #1 prospect ironically... kennedy/nova? sick.

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*~Swift~*

Nova + Betances + Brackman should provide a nice future for the Yankees.

side note: Betances is a very big man haha. I didn't expect that from a kid just up from the minors.

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For people who are picking the Rays seemingly just because of the momentum they have

http://www.dougstats.com/2011ATeamsLF.html

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Fire Todd Haley

Nova is going to be an animal in the postseason

Dude is cool as a cucumber

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They moved Rangers Game 2 to TNT

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Fire Todd Haley

my co-worker who's a huge red sox fan called in sick today.

what a dick.

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ND

hahahaha dave

also yea football your team is all hitting and nothing else

if you don't have cliff lee you lose the series to the yanks last year

that said unsure why you're so confident. Sure the Rays have no hitting, but their team was *this close* to beating you last year. Cliff Lee bailed your pathetic team out

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*~Swift~*

If you want to continue to think that our pitching is still awful then go ahead.

I'll take the team with the best Road ERA in the majors

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Fire Todd Haley

You can have that road ERA. Yanks did a number on you guys this year Albeit it was early on, but I'm confident we can beat you again. Without two guaranteed cliff lee wins I ain't worried about you.

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*~Swift~*

I never said anything about a potential ALCS!

And Cliff Lee only got to pitch once against you last year!

All I'm saying is I don't think the Rays are as good as us, and we are hotter than them right now

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Fire Todd Haley

From: Dr_Football | Posted: 9/29/2011 4:45:28 PM | #099
I never said anything about a potential ALCS!

And Cliff Lee only got to pitch once against you last year!

All I'm saying is I don't think the Rays are as good as us, and we are hotter than them right now

if we win that game where pettite gave his soul it's a 2-1 yankee series lead. changes EVERYTHING. we go back to ur place 3-2

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*~Swift~*