Board 8 > Biden | 81,659,865 | 51.16% | Trump | 74,549,050 | 46.71% [Ng's Final Results!]

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yikes, what a heart-pounding Election Night that was! I hope all Biden supporters kept my Viewing Guide in mind and didn't get overly hopeful when Joe got out to unrealistically good starts in Florida, Ohio, and Texas (the "blue mirage" where mail ins were counted early). Likewise I hope all Trump supporters remembered the Guide and didn't mistakenly think it was time to declare victory after the unrealistically good starts in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (the "red mirage" where mails ins would be counted last).

Regardless, I've gone ahead and taken my Early Vote numbers and combined them with the hard count we've seen so far plus the best estimates of what votes are still out there. The result is the official (okay, estimated, but I think it'll be close)...

[also keep in mind it will take two weeks before we reach these numbers; just got to slowly Count. Every. Vote.]

Ngamer 2020 Presidential Election Final Result

* 159,612,329 total votes cast

• former record was 136.7 million (Trump '16), that's now been smashed by 22.9 million
• this means 67% of all eligible Americans headed to the polls in 2020, our best turnout rate in 120 years.hoorah for democracy!

* 81,659,865 votes cast for Joe Biden

• former record was 65.9 million (Obama '08), that's now been bested by 15.8 million

* 74,549,050 votes cast for Donald Trump

• he collected 62.9 million in 2016, so this is an improvement of 11.5 million

* 7,110,814 vote margin of victory

• that's an improvement of 4.24 million over Hillary's 2016 margin (2.87 million)
• it's also a larger win than Bush '88 (7.0), Clinton '92 (5.8), Obama '12 (5.0), and Bush '04 (3.0)

* 4.46% margin of victory

• that's an improvement of +2.37% over Hillary's 2016 margin (2.1%)
• it's also a larger win than Carter '76 (2.1%), Bush '04 (2.5%), and Obama '12 (3.86%)

* 51.16% final total for Joe Biden

• that's an improvement of +2.96% over Hillary's 2016 total (48.2%)
• it's also a larger percentage than Clinton '96 (49.2%), Carter '76 (50.1%), Bush '04 (50.7%), Reagan '80 (50.8%), and Obama '12 (51.1%)

* 46.71% final total for Donald Trump

• he collected 46.1% of the vote in 2016, so this is an improvement of +0.61%

---

Now unfortunately the last thread hit 500 before I was able to post the final Early Vote results, so here they are!

Final Update (November 2nd overnight vote)
New Votes Cast 2,411,914
Biden Votes (estimated) 2,108,830
Trump Votes (estimated) 2,013,242

Not a bad update for Trump, all things considered. He fell only 95,589 votes farther behind and cut Biden's lead by 0.28%. This goes to show how the Mail In ballots that arrived in the final couple days were significantly more kind to Trump than those that arrived earlier (which is reflected in what we're seeing play out in Arizona right now), because Republicans were scrambling to catch up to the Democrats in Returned Ballot %.

That gave us a final Early Vote Total of

101,214,494 Total Early Votes Cast
(73.4% of 2016's total vote!)

57,230,444 Biden Votes (estimated)
41,497,482 Trump Votes (estimated)
15,732,963 Current Lead (estimated)

56.54% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
41.00% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
15.54% Current Lead (estimated)

If we throw out the Early In-Person Vote and focus on ONLY the Mail In Ballots, Biden pulled down 62.25% of them nationwide. This explains why Joe is not only piling up huge numbers over the last two days out of Milwaukee and Detroit and Atlanta, but is even making small gains as the mail ballots are tallied from rural Pennsylvania counties that favored Trump in person.

At the end of the last topic I said Trump was going to need to win 66.3% of the Election Day vote to pull even with Biden, but that was based on my original estimate of only 150 million votes cast. When expanded out to the actual total of 159.6 million, he needed only 63.6%... which is obviously still a tall order! Trump put together an amazing run and did manage to dominate the Election Day vote, but could only push the final result as high as 57.5%.

Election Day ONLY Results
58,397,835 Votes Cast on Election Day

33,051,569 ED Trump Votes
24,429,420 ED Biden Votes
8,622,148 Size of ED Trump Win
---

That was fun. Now all that's left is the little matter of where the final Electoral College tallies land!

---

Hi ngamer

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Let's go through it state by state and I'll give you my thoughts!

Alaska

• 51k lead for Trump
• ~194k mail in votes yet to be counted

Biden would need to earn 63% of the remaining vote. I do think the mail ins will be more kind to him than the in person voting was, but let's be real, this is Alaska- even the mail in voters aren't going to go all California on us.
Ngamer Sez: Trump takes these 3 electoral college votes

Arizona

• 47k lead for Trump
• ~315k mail in votes yet to be counted

Trump would need to earn 57% of the remaining vote. Over the last two days he's averaged... 56.6%. Holy smokes, what a nailbiter! The majority of what remains is from a county that's been very kind to Trump in the last 36 hours, HOWEVER election insiders are predicting the final batch of mail ins are going to be more friendly for Biden (because they're from Democrats who turned them in by hand on Tuesday).
Ngamer Sez: Biden takes these 11 electoral college votes, but this is a tight 51/49 kind of proposition

Georgia

• 1.8k lead for Trump
• ~10k mail in votes yet to be counted

Biden would need 58% of the remaining vote. He's collected 66% of the mail in vote over the last 48 hours, so that's promising. Better yet for him, all the remaining areas should be super friendly, and indeed he's been spiking out high 70% and 80% mini-batches all evening.
Ngamer Sez: Biden takes these 16 electoral college votes, but it's going to take weeks to see if the provisional ballots and military mail in votes flip the result (I don't think they will)

North Carolina

• 77k lead for Trump
• ~191k mail in votes yet to be counted

Biden would need 70% of the remaining vote. He's averaging 50% of the mail in vote over the last 48 hours... however very very little has been coming in, so that's not a reliable sample. This comeback is certainly possible (the votes are from most of Biden's most favored areas), but it's a long shot... and also it's going to take forever to complete.
Ngamer Sez: Trump takes these 15 electoral college votes

Nevada

• 11k lead for Biden
• ~147k mail in votes yet to be counted

Trump needs 54% of the remaining vote. That sounds doable enough, but the only batch we've seen in the last two days went only 50/50, and most of the outstanding ballots will be coming from the Vegas area which is generally favorable for Democrats. This should be close, but I'm confident in my pick.
Ngamer Sez: Biden takes these 6 electoral college votes

Pennsylvania

• 26k lead for Trump
• ~292k mail in votes yet to be counted

Biden needs 55% of the remaining vote. He's averaging 78% of the mail in vote over the last 48 hours. Some of Biden's best areas like Philly are now mostly depleted... but it doesn't matter, the mail vote was SO overwhelmingly Democratic across the whole state that Biden keeps making huge cuts no matter what counties have been reporting their totals (as I talked about in the opening post). His last few batches have been 67%, 79%, 87%, and the hits just keep coming! This one is donezo, and two days from now it won't even be close.
Ngamer Sez: Biden takes these 20 electoral college votes

Final Tally
Biden - 307
Trump - 231


---

Ngamer64 posted...

* 81,659,865 votes cast for Joe Biden

former record was 65.9 million (Obama '08), that's now been bested by 15.8 million

* 74,549,050 votes cast for Donald Trump

he collected 62.9 million in 2016, so this is an improvement of 11.5 million

* 7,110,814 vote margin of victory

that's an improvement of 4.24 million over Hillary's 2016 margin (2.87 million)

Er, is this a projection or is the site I'm looking at way way way behind on totals?

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Those are estimates.
---

That's the tallied votes you're seeing on your website plus my projections on the rest of the outstanding mail in ballots. I'm confident your website will show numbers very close to that, but not for three weeks.


---

PA 2016 - Trump by 44k

PA 2020 - Biden by 60k

...is where it looks like we're going to end up.

10 updates in the last six hours, all between 62% and 87% for Biden, have lowered the average needed the rest of the way to only 53%.

There have also been 7 Georgia updates in the last six hours, those were all between 66% and 91% and have lowered the average needed the rest of the way to 57%.

---

For Pennsylvania, if you are using the estimated remaining votes on the tracker someone made, that's either not accurate or it includes provisional ballots in addition to mail vote. The PA secretary of state's site has the number of mail votes left to be counted at only 164k as of nearly 2 and a half hours ago.

There are reportedly 92,500 provisional ballots across 44 counties, and the SOS hasn't yet had a report on the number from the other 23 counties. In previous elections, Pennsylvania has had a partial acceptance (meaning votes are accepted for some races, but not geography-dependent races for which a voter was not entitled to vote) rate of about 60%.

Now the interesting thing is that 3 counties have submitted counts for accepted provisional ballots already, and so far Trump is winning them 81/19! Of course, these are 3 very small, deep red, counties. But I would expect him to win the provisionals, as he won the election day vote 65-34 in PA. Probably not enough to make a comeback but I think Biden will end under a 20k advantage.

---

Ngamer64 posted...

Final Tally
Biden - 307
Trump - 231

306, you added wrong.

All I know is the mail in vote system seems pretty lousy

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Fun fact: assuming the states do break as Ngamer predicts (which seems quite likely at the moment), Biden will will with the same electoral vote total that Trump had in 2016

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I based my number on

But although Biden will easily win Maine, it appears one of their 4 EC votes is still undecided (at least CNN hasn't called it). I assume Trump's the favorite for that one when all the votes are tallied so fair enough, I'll update my pred to Biden 306.

---

Ngamer64 posted...

I based my number on

But although Biden will easily win Maine, it appears one of their 4 EC votes is still undecided (at least CNN hasn't called it). I assume Trump's the favorite for that one when all the votes are tallied so fair enough, I'll update my pred to Biden 306.

...Wait, is the electoral college in 2020 going to end up the exact same but opposite 2016?


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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

...Wait, is the electoral college in 2020 going to end up the exact same but opposite 2016?

Yep

Unless Biden manages to pull off NC

---

Just for fun I'll repost the predictions from the old topic before it purges

---Presidential---

Maps

xp: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ype8k
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz
Dancedreamer: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28
Xeybozn: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV
Suprak: https://www.270towin.com/maps/NJKy6
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e
red sox: https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm
charmander: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Lkv9k
Chris: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJzBp
fuming: https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXObO
Ashethan: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ne1dY
Luster: https://www.270towin.com/maps/E0Prx
Inviso: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ32W
Crossfiyah: https://www.270towin.com/maps/vpzmw
Tony: https://www.270towin.com/maps/P0yX9
Moogle: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ2Jm
azuarc: https://www.270towin.com/maps/m2XOY
Pyro: https://www.270towin.com/maps/rnA3J
MikeTavish: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Wv0rg
ESY16: https://www.270towin.com/maps/e263n
ZeldaTPLink: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJjv3
neonreaper: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJkA3
masterplum: https://www.270towin.com/maps/m24Jv
Ulti: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJk2D
foolmo: https://www.270towin.com/maps/9J8ml
hockeydude: https://www.270towin.com/maps/YOZLo
changmas: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XplKz
sniperdog: https://www.270towin.com/maps/E0Prx
PrinceKaro: https://www.270towin.com/maps/j2Wke
meche: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJkA3
gravy: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZvyB0

~~~

By Margin

Biden

LotM: 413-125
MikeTavish: 395-143
masterplum: 388-150
foolmo: 368-170
Chris: 360-178
Crossfiyah: 360-178
PrinceKaro: 360-178
xp: 351-187
Pyro: 351-187
Xeybozn: 344-194
gravy: 336-202
ESY16: 335-203
hockeydude: 335-203
ZeldaTPLink: 321-217
Luster: 308-230
sniperdog: 308-230
Inviso: 305-233
azuarc: 299-239
Corrik: 290-248
Ashethan: 288-250
Tony: 281-257
Dancedreamer: 279-259
changmas: 274-264
charmander: 272-266
Suprak: 271-267
Moogle: 270-268
Ulti: 270-268
---
fuming: 269-269
---
neonreaper: 258-280
meche: 258-280
red sox: 252-286

Trump

~~~

Swing States/Districts (Ordered from most people picking Biden at the top to least. Only states where we had splits included. Hopefully I caught all the errors here!)

MN
Biden (30): xp, LotM, Dancerdreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy
Trump (1): Ulti

WI
Biden (29): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy
Trump (2): fuming, Tony

NV
Biden (28): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy
Trump (3): red sox, charmander, azuarc

PA
Biden (24): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Corrik, charmander, Chris, fuming, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (7): Suprak, red sox, Ashethan, Moogle, neonreaper, changmas, meche

AZ
Biden (23): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, foolmo, hockeydude, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (8): Dancedreamer, red sox, charmander, fuming, neonreaper, Ulti, changmas, meche

NE-2
Biden (21): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Crossfiyah, Tony, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (10): red sox, charmander, Luster, Inviso, Moogle, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, sniperdog, meche

ME-2
Biden (21): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Chris, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (10): Dancedreamer, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, azuarc, neonreaper, changmas, meche

NC
Biden (15): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Chris, Inviso, Crossfiyah, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, foolmo, changmas, PrinceKaro
Trump (16): Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Tony, Moogle, neonreaper, Ulti, hockeydude, sniperdog, meche, gravy

GA
Biden (10): xp, LotM, Chris, Crossfiyah, Pyro, MikeTavish, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (21): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, ESY16, neonreaper, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, meche

TX
Biden (9): LotM, Xeybozn, Chris, Crossfiyah, MikeTavish, masterplum, foolmo, hockeydude, PrinceKaro
Trump (22): xp, Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, Ulti, changmas, sniperdog, meche, gravy

FL
Biden (7): xp, LotM, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, masterplum, gravy
Trump (24): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche

OH
Biden (5): LotM, Ashethan, Luster, foolmo, sniperdog
Trump (26): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, Ulti, hockeydude, changmas, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy

IA
Biden (4): LotM, MikeTavish, foolmo, hockeydude
Trump (27): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, Ulti, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy

~~~

Senate

xp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/qyYBRq [50-48-2 runoffs]
Suprak: +3 net for Dems (-AL, +CO, AZ, ME, NC) [50-50]
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5nQ22M [54-46]
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5XL9L5 [50-50; Clarified that WV for Dems was an error]

Yeah, my thinking was 2018 was an insane wave and we likely wouldn't replicate that. Trump has strength at the top of the ticket, and considering how close I thought the race would be overall I didn't think we'd hold on to everything.

Of course it went worse than even I was expecting!

---

It was finally explained to me why Arizona is different

They have a system where you can sign up as a permanent absentee voter, and mostly Republicans use it

But fox and ap assumed arizona was like every other state, which sees mail in votes coming in as overwhelmingly democratic

---

I didn't post my map but it ended up being pretty solid- called 48 out of 50 states correctly (plus the right split in Nebraska and Maine), if the current results hold. My EC number was way off though.

I took Montana for Biden as a long shot based on their excellent early vote numbers, and also picked Texas to turn blue for the same reason.

---

Suprak the Stud posted...

Of course it went worse than even I was expecting!

Did it? The expected EV total for Biden is well above your guess.

Edit: Oh, your Senate/House maps. NVM

---

Ngamer64 posted...

I didn't post my map but it ended up being pretty solid- called 48 out of 50 states correctly (plus the right split in Nebraska and Maine), if the current results hold. My EC number was way off though.

Almost the same here. I'd be at 48/50 as well if results hold as expected (Florida - which I had felt increasingly bad about in the 36 or so hours after I first posted my prediction over in the Containment topic, but didn't want to make any last minute changes. And North Carolina which at least was pretty close.)

I also missed ME-2, but in my defense, in the annotated version of my prediction in Containment I specifically mentioned that if Trump performed better than my map that I felt ME-2 would be the first place to go his way.

Still would add up to being 45 EVs off though. >_>

---

I was very off, but I was still surprised that no one outflanked me on the optimistic side when my map was only a ~1.5 point polling error in Biden's favor! Somebody definitely could have been more optimistic and added like Montana or something based on the polls.

---

I wasn't too far off. I gave Arizona, NC, and PA to Biden; should have been Arizona, GA, and PA....oh, except I apparently left Nevada out. Never mind.

---

Ngamer's post election analysis

---

I'm going to end up at either 47/50 or 46/50 depending on if Trump can pull off the comeback in Arizona. I think Georgia is pretty much over with that latest drop of votes from Fulton. Nevada will be my only miss over 0.5%.

On the popular vote side, I predicted Biden +3 and he is currently at +2.8. Of course this will probably end at +4 given the glacial pace of counting in California. I guess missing by 1 point isn't bad, but I should have stuck with my initial prediction from last Saturday, which was Biden +4 and would have been perfect.

---

pjbasis posted...

Ngamer's post election analysis

---

I've got a million thoughts on the subject. Hopefully I get time for a full analysis tonight!

---

I'm here hoping NC still flips to Biden so I get a perfect (in delegate score) bracket!

Only other matches I've gotten wrong are the two 1-point districts.

I've gotten 2 of the 1-point districts wrong, plus Georgia (if it holds) and Ohio. I knew Ohio was probably more of a longshot prediction, but it was the state that I tried picking for an upset special. Georgia was more unexpected because I had always considered Georgia to be a more Republican state than Florida, so picking Florida to go Republican means you generally have to pick Georgia to go the same way.
---

LusterSoldier posted...

I've gotten 2 of the 1-point districts wrong, plus Georgia (if it holds) and Ohio. I knew Ohio was probably more of a longshot prediction, but it was the state that I tried picking for an upset special. Georgia was more unexpected because I had always considered Georgia to be a more Republican state than Florida, so picking Florida to go Republican means you generally have to pick Georgia to go the same way.

Never try to fit Florida in any pattern.

Ngamer64 posted...

I've got a million thoughts on the subject. Hopefully I get time for a full analysis tonight!

Narrator: He didnt
---

But perhaps tonight...


---

Nope still no time, but I do want to say how proud of America I am! Or more correctly, how proud I am so far.

That was a confusing, frustrating four days, with lots of misinformation flying every which way- and yet there were no mobs on the streets, no one setting fire to buildings where mail in votes were being stored, all the protesting at the counting centers was peaceful. Here's hoping we'll be okay now that we've gotten through the most potentially dangerous week.


---

What is your take on the warnings and long term problems presented in this article:

http://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020-presidential-election/2020/11/7/21554114/trump-election-2020-voter-fraud-challenge-recount-biden

---

xp1337 posted...

No promises I'll do a more in-depth wrap-up when these races get officially called but I'd like to do that so uhhh... stay tuned?

Looks like the various news outlets have gotten there so let's do this.

I also went and made up a map of the "Board 8 cookie." Here it is: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AVXvm

The cookie was close. It was Biden 291-247 with misses in only GA and ME-2. Both of which were in the Top 4 most divided picks (NC - the most split state for the board; called correctly by a margin of a single user, and NE-2 which was tied with ME-2.)

Final result: Biden wins 306-232

Board 8 Overall metrics:
Average EV result: 315-223
Median EV result: 308-230

Congrats to Inviso for coming the closest being off of the final result by only 1 electoral vote. With honorable mentions to Luster and sniperdog for being off by only 2, as well as actual guru winner azuarc who rounds out the "off by only single-digits club" with a miss of 7 EVs.

By margin (calculated by the absolute value of distance from Biden's EV):

1. Inviso: Off by 1 (305-233)
T-2. Luster: Off by 2 (308-230)
T-2. sniperdog: Off by 2 (308-230)
4. azuarc: Off by 7 (299-239)
*Board 8 Cookie: Off by 15 (291-247)
5. ZeldaTPLink: Off by 15 (321-217)
6. Corrik: Off by 16 (290-248)
7. Ashethan: Off by 18 (288-250)
8. Tony: Off by 25 (281-257)
9. Dancedreamer: Off by 27 (279-259)
T-10. ESY16: Off by 29 (335-203)
T-10. hockeydude: Off by 29 (335-203)
12. gravy: Off by 30 (336-202)
13. changmas: Off by 32 (274-264)
14. charmander: Off by 34 (272-266)
15. Suprak: Off by 35 (271-267)
16. Moogle: Off by 36 (270-268)
17. Ulti: Off by 36 (270-268)
18. fuming: Off by 37 (269-269)
19. Xeybozn: Off by 38 (344-194)
T-20. xp: Off by 45 (351-187)
T-20. Pyro: Off by 45 (351-187)
T-22. neonreaper: Off by 48 (258-280)
T-22. meche: Off by 48 (258-280)
T-24. Chris: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. Crossfiyah: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. PrinceKaro: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. red sox: Off by 54 (252-286)
28. foolmo: Off by 62 (368-170)
29. masterplum: Off by 82 (388-150)
30. MikeTavish: Off by 89 (395-143)
31. LotM: Off by 107 (413-125)

~~~

By correctly called states/districts. I go by state first, districts called correctly make up something of a tiebreaker within. I considered counting them equally as states but I don't know if that felt right. Hopefully I caught the errors I made here but I am not 100% confident, by the end of this I kind of felt my eyes glazing over as I checked it against everyone's calls.

Congrats to Corrik, gravy, and ZeldaTPLink for being the 3 users to get 49/50 states correct and in particular Corrik for being the only one of the trio to get the correct congressional district split (and thus the only one to outright beat the cookie.) Only 6 of us got the correct congressional district split overall: Corrik, Dancedreamer, fuming, Ashethan, azuarc, and changmas.

On average Board 8 called 47.35 states correctly. (And exactly 1 of the congressional districts. The 6 who called the split correctly being offset by the 6 who missed both.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

49/50 (3 users + Board 8 Cookie)

2/2 Districts
Corrik (Missed GA)

1/2 Districts
*Board 8 Cookie (Missed GA, ME-2)
gravy (Missed: FL, ME-2)

0/2 Districts
ZeldaTPLink (Missed: NC, NE-2, ME-2)

-------------------
48/50 (12 users)

2/2 Districts
Dancedreamer (Missed: AZ, GA)

1/2 Districts
xp (Missed: NC, FL, ME-2)
Suprak (Missed: PA, GA, ME-2)
Chris (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)
Crossfiyah (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)
Tony (Missed: WI, GA, ME-2)
Pyro (Missed: NC, FL, ME-2)
PrinceKaro (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)

0/2 Districts
Luster (Missed: GA, OH, NE-2, ME-2)
Inviso (Missed: NC, GA, NE-2, ME-2)
Moogle (Missed: PA, GA, NE-2, ME-2)
sniperdog (Missed: GA, OH, NE-2, ME-2)

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47/50 (11 users)

2/2 Districts
fuming (Missed: WI, AZ, GA)
Ashethan (Missed: PA, GA, OH)
azuarc (Missed: NV, NC, GA)

1/2 Districts
Xeybozn (Missed: NC, GA, TX, ME-2)
charmander (Missed: NV, AZ, GA, NE-2)
ESY16 (Missed: NC, GA, FL, ME-2)
neonreaper (Missed: PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)
Ulti (Missed: MN, AZ, GA, ME-2)
hockeydude (Missed: GA, TX, IA, ME-2)
meche (Missed: PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)

0/2 Districts
masterplum (NC, TX, FL, NE-2, ME-2)

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46/50 (3 users)

2/2 Districts
changmas (Missed: PA, AZ, NC, GA)

1/2 Districts
red sox (Missed: NV, PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)
MikeTavish (Missed: NC, TX, FL, IA, ME-2)

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45/50 (2 users)

1/2 Districts
LotM (Missed: NC, TX, FL, OH, IA, ME-2)
foolmo (Missed: NC, GA, TX, OH, IA, ME-2)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I only started this for fun and distraction in the lead-up to the election in the Containment topic and didn't expect it to become as big as it got here but I hope you found it worthwhile.

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Thanks for running that mini contest xp, and congrats to Inviso

Despite my last place finish, I still think my map was a smart pick since it would have gotten first in like a third of the possible outcomes per 538...!

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hey sometimes you gotta go big or go home

i wanted to believe in the dream too

If polling didn't have... whatever error it had... it was a pretty good pick IMO! I'm interested in the post-mortem of that because in some places it seems to have held up okay but in others it's like wtf even happened whereas in 2016 not only were the polls not as off as they're made out to be, but the problem seemed to be an across the board underestimation of non-college educated white turnout and when polls re-calibrated in 2018 they were dead-on.

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If only I had picked Nevada correctly. Still did well.

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xp1337 posted...

If polling didn't have... whatever error it had... it was a pretty good pick IMO! I'm interested in the post-mortem of that because in some places it seems to have held up okay but in others it's like wtf even happened whereas in 2016 not only were the polls not as off as they're made out to be, but the problem seemed to be an across the board underestimation of non-college educated white turnout and when polls re-calibrated in 2018 they were dead-on.

I've read a few pollsters speculating and offering up some theories (in particular Nate Cohn had some interesting stuff to say). One thing we apparently do know though is that a big problem was with the data itself rather than just the likely voter models etc (if pollsters had used 2016 methodology they would have been off by even more).

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I've read a few pollsters speculating and offering up some theories (in particular Nate Cohn had some interesting stuff to say). One thing we apparently do know though is that a big problem was with the data itself rather than just the likely voter models etc (if pollsters had used 2016 methodology they would have been off by even more).

Trafalgar said this before the election and I think their polling ended up pretty accurate as well.

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Wow I did better in this contest than in any of the real gurus I've played in so far!

Who wins when you take out all those dominion votes

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Bump

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Up

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Ngamer64 posted...

I've got a million thoughts on the subject. Hopefully I get time for a full analysis tonight!

Have you gotten around to doing an analysis yet?
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Just keep scrolling up

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Post Electoral College Bump

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Merry Christmas!

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New Year, New President

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Wait, this topic was still alive? It's a Christmas Miracle!

Well if you're still checking it then you'd probably be happy to hear that another Ng Deep Dive Into The Numbers has been posted, this time regarding today's Georgia special election.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/79219630

Basically, people have been predicting good things for the future of the Republican Party based on how well they did across the board in November (despite their presidential candidate suffering a 7 million vote defeat). I however am of the opinion that their future is bleak, if not outright disastrous, because Donald Trump will never be on another ballot in his lifetime. Their winning sauce in 2020 was the 10% of the country that's always been politically disengaged in the past but showed up for Trump in droves, and those people are never coming back to support any other candidate.

I think we're going to see that in Georgia today, and then again (and in a HUGE way) in 2022.

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I wouldn't be too sure Trump never shows up on another ballot!

(also I'd wager the opposite happened too and a large swath of voters showed up specifically to anti-vote Trump so I think they'll mostly cancel each other out)

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