Board 8 > ~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 12 feat. Red Dead Redemption 2 (-56)/Portal 2 (-34)

(+) Yeah! (+)

You can sign-up now or anytime during the contest. Regardless, you will be given $1000 to bet on matches as you see fit. If at any time you fall below $1000, you can bet up to $1000 but beware you can enter the negatives. The user with the most money at the end will be crowned the winner and receive a game of their choice (within reason) courtesy of your host (unless I win, then the prize will go to the runner-up).

Basically this works like sports betting with spreads, if you're familiar with that. Here's an example line:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (-40) vs The Outer Worlds

If you bet on BotW, it would have to beat TOW by 40%, meaning it would have to get at least 70% of the vote (70-30 = 40). If you bet on TOW (+40) it needs to score at least 30.01% of the vote (69.99 - 30.01 = 39.98) to keep the difference in percentage, or spread, within 40 points.

So someone with $1000 bets $500 on BotW

BotW 73.12%
TOW 26.88%

BotW covers! The bet is doubled and returned for a profit of $500 and the player is now at $1500

ALTERNATE UNIVERSE

BotW 63.1%
TOW 36.9%

TOW covers! All BotW bets are lost and said player is now at $500. Even though BotW won, it didn't win by enough.

Back for this contest is 4-match days, meaning parlays are back too! For those unfamiliar, you can earn more by combining your bets, but if one is wrong you lose the whole thing. So let's say

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (-40) vs The Outer Worlds
Halo: Reach (-10) vs Life Is Strange

If you bet $100 on each of these individually and win, you earn a $100 profit on each, for a total of $200. However, if you parlay and both win you will get x3, meaning you win a $300 profit. However, if either match is wrong you lose the entire bet. 3 and 4 match parlays will give higher payouts, but you risk losing it all if any match in the parlay is wrong.

2-Match Parlay: 3 to 1 ($100 bet = $300 profit)
3-Match Parlay: 7 to 1 ($100 bet = $700 profit)
4-Match Parlay: 15 to 1 ($100 bet = $1500 profit)

You can choose any combination of parlays and single bets you want.

Today's Matches
Portal 2 (-34) vs. Tomb Raider (Portal 2 with 67%)
Kingdom Hearts III (-38) vs. Disco Elysium (Kingdom Hearts 3 with 69%)
Animal Crossing: New Leaf (-30) vs. Street Fighter V (AC:NL with 65%)
Red Dead Redemption 2 (-56) vs. Dying Light (RDR2 with 78%)

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Sorry for the late post today guys, I totally thought I made the topic earlier!

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Hmm, tough day except for

MAX on New Leaf

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No worries. We all appreciate the effort you make for doing this.

1000 parlay Kingdom Hearts and Animal Crossing, please.

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MAX parlay on Portal 2, Kingdom Hearts, and Animal Crossing.

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If results hold:

$510,000 on Animal Crossing

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Man, these spreads are pretty good and I need to make up some ground.

MAX parlay on Disco Elysium and Animal Crossing

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HALF on Tomb Raider
HALF on Red Dead Redemption 2

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MAX on disco elysium and animal crossing

50% on Animal Crossing

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20K on RDR2/AC parlay
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MAX on KH3, AC & RDR2

HALF parlay on Kingdom Hearts III and Animal Crossing: New Leaf

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HALF parlay on Portal 2, Animal Crossing, Kingdom Hearts 3 and Red Dead Redemption 2

Reasoning:

Portal 2: Portal games did pretty well in 2015 - 32% on Melee and >45% on Sonic 2 is no joke. Back in GOTD I remember Portal hilariously crushing FFXII in a debated match. Portal's never really had a huge blowout win, but Tomb Raider has looked very soft in most of its polls over the last decade and I'm really not convinced this site is going to care about it much - Uncharted is pitched more squarely at this site's audience and it's never been very strong. Not much to go on but I feel good about Portal 2 doubling TR.

Animal Crossing: New Leaf got a tripling off SMW in a SFF match. SFV got 1.8% in one of those ridiculous 9 way polls - you can say they're worthless, but still 1.8%! Another poll it was in saw it get 2.5%. Maybe it can avoid the doubling off franchise value, but I think modern fighters not named Smash are just not getting a hearing here, while AC has a recent release going for it (certainly didn't hurt Nioh or Ori).

Kingdom Hearts III: There's some danger here, but DE is probably too niche to capitalise on the weak reception for KH3. Doubling Baba Is You is one thing, but it went and let an anti-vote magnet like GTA hit 80%. The only post-release KH3's ever been in saw it beat DMC5 - which did none too bad against Donkey Kong Country, so I'm encouraged.

RDR2: Nothing obvious to stop it from joining the 80%+ like so many other big names in this contest when put up against ultra fodder.


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MAX parlay on Tomb Raider, Animal Crossing, Red Dead Redemption 2

$200,000 parlay on Tomb Raider and Animal Crossing

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Kotetsu534 posted...

Portal 2: Portal games did pretty well in 2015 - 32% on Melee and >45% on Sonic 2 is no joke.

Portal is largely considered to have underperformed in the 2015 contest.

25% on Tomb Raider (+34)
25% on Disco Elysium (+38)
25% on Street Fighter V (+30)
25% on Red Dead Redemption 2 (-56)

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$3500 parlay on Tomb Raider and ACNL

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Assuming my bets yesterday cover, $175,000 on a parlay on Tomb Raider and Red Dead Redemption 2.

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5% on Tomb Raider
15% on Kingdom Hearts III
20% on Animal Crossing NL
20% on Red Dead Redemption 2


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$1250 parlay on Tomb Raider/Animal Crossing/Red Dead Redemption 2
$500 on Disco Elysium

90% parlay on Animal Crossing, Red Dead

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$1000 on Portal/KH3/SFV/RDR2 parlay


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$15,000 parlay on Tomb Raider, KH3, AC:NL

30% on Portal, RDR2 parlay

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4000 on Animal Crossing: A New Leaf
4000 on Kingdom Hearts III

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CHANGE

30% on KH3, RDR2 parlay

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$3M parlay on Tomb Raider/SFV

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Eh, these look nasty. No parlay for today.

MAX on RDR2

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Ah, there goes bankroll.

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Nintendogs posted...

Portal is largely considered to have underperformed in the 2015 contest.

Hmm, let's see... it did about 13 points worse than KHII on Melee?! I can see why people thought that then. I remembered KHII as being worth 41-43% on that level of near elite at its peak, but I guess it went up.

Need some KH day vote magic to pull this spread off, and Portal to rise a bit (possible!).

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