Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1307

(+) Yeah! (+)

Something's gotten us cranky all of a sudden. Haven't seen this place this toxic since the Undertale and Draven rallies. And the reason? Because a close match from 2005 isn't flipping when we all thought it would. *SMH*

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

I say "we", but I've got Bowser in my bracket...oh, wait, that's actually the Guru Cookie! Albeit by a narrow plurality.

Now shut up and drink your goddamn contest.
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Imagine if Alucard does the impossible and bests Cloud Strife.

My god that would be glorious.
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Edit in the contest discussion flair please
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UltimaterializerX posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

we all thought it would

"We"?

There was literally zero reason for Kirby to close that gap. Zero.

You and I are in agreement on that one! I think I ended up following the herd and taking Kirby in Oracle but that could've just been wishful thinking because I'm a big Kirby fan. Already planning to rally for a Kirby game next time we have a Games Contest because the series is literally only 0-1 all-time (Super Star made the '09 bracket and got fed to SM64, not that it would've beaten 2nd-place finisher SotN 1v1 anyway.)

I'm assuming given how infrequent Games Contests are that our next one will be 2020's "GotD 2010-2019" so the current plan is Return to Dreamland, but if we get an open one I'll gladly switch over to Crystal Shards!
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I thought it was weird people thinking too much on stats (especially on untested 2B, and blowouts on Phoenix, Gordon, and Isaac who are all weak and/or SFFd) which was their logic on Kirby beatin Bowser (AND with ease)

Using rSFF to hopefully justify their facts is odd when their original hopes were based on a few SFF matches to being with, along with the OG poll in 2005 and the fact that Bowser has been in more relevant games/memes than Kirby has in the last 10+ years

But whatever keep crunching those numbers
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Also this is where I finally fell off the leaderboard. Man I thought Kirby was strong or something! But anyways I was like 12 which is the higher I ever got in these things so that is fine.
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What is up with all those people being arrogant about getting Bowser right?

Like, don't act like your bracket isn't a complete turd too because everyone's is.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

What is up with all those people being arrogant about getting Bowser right?

It's just Ulti being very loud
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I also thought Bowser would take it, but then checked my bracket and have Kirby. Whaaa
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I know why Bowser is winning
This is all thanks to Bowser Inside Story 3DS Remake hype, surely!
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Chill out everyone, we're all in like our mid-thirties now and still getting angry about video game popularity contests, if we get unlucky we'll all get heart attacks and die and miss out on the hentai subreddit deciding this year's contest winner.
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I had Bowser and picked him in Battle Challenge, but I sure did consider banking.
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So do you all think Link will SFF the Dorf worse than he did in 2004? Blowouts are more difficult with the lower votals and all (unless you're facing Draven), but Link also has a hell of a lot more reason to boost while the Dorf doesn't really factor into Link Between Worlds and Breath of the Wild.
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Not_Wylvane posted...

Chill out everyone, we're all in like our mid-thirties now and still getting angry about video game popularity contests, if we get unlucky we'll all get heart attacks and die and miss out on the hentai subreddit deciding this year's contest winner.

I know this is sad, but it's a lot more fun to act like a child when you are a grown ass man and not just a teenager.
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Is Alucard the overachiever of the contest so far?

Who else contends for this title?

Vivi, Tifa, Zelda?

Going off of 2010, Alucard is not actually overperforming that much, only about 2%. Of course Red is likely stronger than he appeared in 2010 too.

Zelda's overperformance is gigantic. She beat Squall by 4% more than post Brawl announcement Snake, the same Snake that beat Sonic and Mega Man and got 47% on Samus. Vivi actually underperformed 2013 as expected, though he did look great. However, DK made up percentage on him which means that DK must have overperformed by more than Vivi did. Tifa is about where she has been. She looks good because the vast majority of FF has weakened a good deal.

Overperformance wise:

Zelda>Alucard>DK>Tifa>Vivi, and there are others who likely belong in that ranking like Bowser. He certainly looked better than Vivi.
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I'm so fucked. RIP X and Kirby
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Man Zelda will beat Aerith with more than 75%.
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Safer_777 posted...

Man Zelda will beat Aerith with more than 75%.

Yeah zelda has looked like an absolute beast.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Wow Bowser is hanging on. What an INSANE result!

I know you're probably joking but I had hope for kirby... or well my bracket sadly did. Oh well !
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OFool posted...

Is Alucard the overachiever of the contest so far?

Who else contends for this title?

Vivi, Tifa, Zelda?

Definitely Alucard. It's been such a pleasant surprise
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Aeris will beat Squall's percentage, thus proving that waifu factor is real.

OFool posted...

Is Alucard the overachiever of the contest so far?

Who else contends for this title?

Vivi, Tifa, Zelda?

Top 5 overachievers
1. Alucard
2. 2B
3. Zelda
4. DK
5. Tifa
HM: Chun Li, Tails

Top 5 underachievers
1. Draven
2. Sora
3. Squall
4. Mewtwo
5. Shepard
HM: Red, Big Boss
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So for next round.
Link will score at least 85% on Ganon.
MM at least 53% on Pika.
Cloud at least 55% on Alucard.
Crono at least 52% on Bowser.

Well at least I think so. If anything different happens I will be suprised.
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There has to be one massive surprise in the championship bracket
Samus > mario
Crono losing to a non N9?
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Wreath posted...

There has to be one massive surprise in the championship bracket
Samus > mario
Crono losing to a non N9?

It will be Ganon > Link with 88%. About time dude gets his revenge.
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squexa posted...

OFool posted...

Is Alucard the overachiever of the contest so far?

Who else contends for this title?

Vivi, Tifa, Zelda?

Top 5 overachievers
1. Alucard
2. 2B
3. Zelda
4. DK
5. Tifa
HM: Chun Li, Tails

Top 5 underachievers
1. Draven
2. Sora
3. Squall
4. Mewtwo
5. Shepard
HM: Red, Big Boss

Vivi not even an honourable mention?

He had a bloody good run and did well in his losing effort.

Monika I think didnt live up to the rally hype, and is worth considering, but I know thats not quite what we are talking about here

OFool posted...

Vivi not even an honourable mention?

He had a bloody good run and did well in his losing effort.

Monika I think didnt live up to the rally hype, and is worth considering, but I know thats not quite what we are talking about here

Just feel like the others deserved it more. Chun Li did so well on Ganon that people thought he sucks now, before his match with Dante redeemed him. And few expected Tails to even win round 1, much less 2. Only 11% of Gurus took Tails to round 3.

Vivi had a good run that legitimized his 2013 performance, but most people pegged Vivi pretty much where he ended pre-contest and in the oracle. Of course, if he actually beat Ganondorf, he'd be HM at least.
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squexa posted...

OFool posted...

Is Alucard the overachiever of the contest so far?

Who else contends for this title?

Vivi, Tifa, Zelda?

Top 5 overachievers
1. Alucard
2. 2B
3. Zelda
4. DK
5. Tifa
HM: Chun Li, Tails

Top 5 underachievers
1. Draven
2. Sora
3. Squall
4. Mewtwo
5. Shepard
HM: Red, Big Boss

Tifa basically being noble nine status is easily the most ridiculous result of the contest so far, and possibly ever.

And Squall is so far in front of the other underachievers that it's not even worth mentioning them.
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Should Draven be the #1 underachiever? Yes he got crushed worse than we thought, but no one really expected him to have much strength.
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It is difficult to define true underacheivers because so many who are often suggested ran into overacheivers. This is why Shepard is my #1. I basically agree with the overacheiver list but would add Bowser.

As for underacheivers:

#1 Shepard
#2 Vincent
#3 Fox
#4 L-Block
#5 Gordon
HMs: Draven, Dragonborn, Squall
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Vincent is fine. Yeah he lost to Auron but it was as expected. According to the stats he would barely beat Sub zero which is okay I guess.
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@Lopen from the last topic.

Thats not an irrelevant hypothetical - that is literally your claim. Just worded in a more pragmatic manner, to show how totally out there your claim is.

Id say youre the one whos gone down the rabbit hole of speculation with this Samus boosted stuff ;)

And I would say 2k4 being 60-40 just like 2k5 was is significantly more likely than Samus winning if I had to choose one.

2K4 Mario does not get 59.79% in 2K4 Samus, it just doesnt happen. He was too weak. Not a good year for him.

I didnt say Mario/Samus 2K4 was a toss up. Its something thats quite fuzzy to me.

Mario/Samus was one year apart. Bowser/Kirby is 13 years apart. The latter situation has way more moving parts. And we have radically less confidence about their indirect strengths in both those years to begin with, so we dont even know if theres any SFF/rSFF in Bowser/Kirby at all.

Its conceivable a boost in strength over a year wouldnt increase your SFF/rSFF abilities - but this seems incredibly implausible, and at least it shouldnt hurt them.

Its *conveivable* you could boost in strength but lose SFF ability against a particular opponent, but for me to buy it there would to be some Kingdom Hearts factor type reason. Even then, it seems unlikely that your SFF powers would outright diminish, because the boosting character should be the one gaining exposure. It simply doesnt make logical sense that in just a year you boost a lot in strength relative to an opponent, but lose SFF/rSFF powers. It makes perfect sense that youd gain them.

A different voter base would certainly affect SFF levels - but...they should realistically only make SFF powers of the boosted character greater. A new voter base that has an even greater preference for one character, but less of an SFF effect, seems highly unlikely. You could probably find some mathematical model where it works, I just dont believe its realistic in real life.

There're just too many underachievers that it's hard to rank. Could give a giant turd to:

- Modern Western characters in general (other maybe than Geralt)
- Men of Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts
- Metal Gear Solid
- Resident Evil
- Non-rat Pokemon
- Joke characters
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PoIl6177 posted...

squexa posted...

OFool posted...

Is Alucard the overachiever of the contest so far?

Who else contends for this title?

Vivi, Tifa, Zelda?

Top 5 overachievers
1. Alucard
2. 2B
3. Zelda
4. DK
5. Tifa
HM: Chun Li, Tails

Top 5 underachievers
1. Draven
2. Sora
3. Squall
4. Mewtwo
5. Shepard
HM: Red, Big Boss

Tifa basically being noble nine status is easily the most ridiculous result of the contest so far, and possibly ever.

And Squall is so far in front of the other underachievers that it's not even worth mentioning them.

Maybe Zelda will show Squall isnt as bad as we think. I think Squall will still look bad, but we dont know that for sure yet.

As for Zelda overachieving more than Alucard as someone suggested, Id say Alucard is more surprising, because Zelda boosting makes sense. Plus Nintendo doing well is old hat in these contests by now.

I think Zelda vs Squall was a mix of both a big Zelda boost and a big Squall fall. Squall still did worse on Garrus than Ryu did on Shepard. Ryu didn't seem to get a big boost so Squall looks really bad there.
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I mean, Ryu did get Smash. He should have gotten at least a little boost.
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I guess we all agree Alucard's boost is from Smash Ultimate?
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Just checked the contest standings.

More people had Pikachu winning the division than Ganondorf? Interesting

Hoping Geralt can look good against Auron at least. Definitely gonna be his toughest opponent yet. I really dont want to vote in the other match at all though....

TooTooP3 posted...

Just checked the contest standings.

More people had Pikachu winning the division than Ganondorf? Interesting

Not exactly, those numbers are essentially how many people took a character from the top half of the division over the bottom half.
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Man, Kirby losing today is probably the saddest result in the contest for me.

And I almost voted for Bowser. I really like Bowser. But I was so hype for Kirby being #10.

TooTooP3 posted...

Just checked the contest standings.

More people had Pikachu winning the division than Ganondorf? Interesting

Doesn't surprise me. Pikachu had a softer division, or at least one that would be perceived as such. I vaguely seem to remember Zero being one who's often underestimated, and that's the legitimate biggest threat to Pikachu.

Ganondorf, on the other hand, was in the same division as someone who literally beat him just last contest. Yes, it was in an SFF situation and had rallies fueling an overperformance, but still.

If you look at it round by round, Ganondorf had a higher prediction percentage in Round 1 (not surprising since Pikachu actually drew a midcarder in R1--though Ganondorf had the highest prediction percentage of the round, which might be mildly surprising because Neku's not a newcomer, he's Square, and this was a 4-13 match. Though maybe being a proven loser was why Neku had less support than the likes of Primrose and Hat Kid!), and he still had a higher prediction percentage in Round 2. But Pikachu takes a slight lead over Ganondorf in R3 prediction percentage, suggesting that Dante > Ganondorf was considered a more likely upset than Yoshi > Pikachu, and that's extended here in Round 4, suggesting that Vivi or even Leon were considered better chances than Zero. Which, again, makes sense because the common wisdom is that Mega Man is pseudo-Nintendo.

TL;DR Ganondorf was in a division with multiple non-Nintendo midcarders, while every midcarder in Pikachu's division was Nintendo or pseudo-Nintendo.
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So it used to be a clear cut Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi

What do we think it is today?
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Bowser > Luigi > Yoshi sounds right
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Janus5k posted...

Bowser > Luigi > Yoshi sounds right

This
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Nanis23 posted...

Janus5k posted...

Bowser > Luigi > Yoshi sounds right

This

Yeah, probably. Yoshi is definitely the weakest of the three; Luigi-Bowser is a tougher call.
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Am I crazy for thinking Alucard probably hasn't boosted much and only looks so good because everyone else in the division sucks? Sora/Red/Big Boss/Kefka all being weaker than we expected pre-contest isn't as weird as Peach and Crash suddenly becoming strong midcarders in my opinion.
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