Board 8 > College Football Ladder Contest Bowl Season

(+) Yeah! (+)

Oh not this again. Well, I know that kev directly copied my picks, and I believe it was jcgamer who got just about everything wrong, and Para missed the level entirely... Ah, right, and I knew that someone would end up on Level 8 regardless of which way the final game went, so that means 5tar must've been the one in opposition to the rest of us.

Rules:

There will be 6 groups of 7 games each. For each group of 7, you will pick all games against the spread. If you have more wins than losses (i.e if two of the games push, you only need to go 3-2 on the other five, but if one pushes, you need to go 4-2 on the other 6), you move up a level. All picks are locked in when the first game of a group kicks off, with the exception of the National Championship Game since I'm fairly certain that at least one of the semifinals will be in the same group and as such that pick cannot be completely made right away. Late picks will be accepted but with an auto-loss for any game that has already started when the pick is made.

Level 8:
kevwaffles
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 7:
5tarscream
Paratroopa1

Level 6:

Level 5:
KCF0107

Level 4:
jcgamer107

Round 1:
Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T -9.5 vs. Grambling State
New Orleans Bowl: North Texas +6 vs. Troy
Cure Bowl: Georgia State +6.5 vs. Western Kentucky
Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon -7 vs. Boise State
New Mexico Bowl: Marshall +5.5 vs. Colorado State
Camellia Bowl: Middle Tennessee State +3.5 vs. Arkansas State
Boca Raton Bowl: Akron +22.5 @ Florida Atlantic

No, that's not a mistake. FAU gets to play a bowl game on their home field.
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Hmm... these are not easy picks to make.

Celebration Bowl: Grambling State +9.5
New Orleans Bowl: Troy -6
Cure Bowl: Western Kentucky -6.5
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State +7
New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State -5.5
Camellia Bowl: Middle Tennessee State +3.5
Boca Raton Bowl: Akron +22.5
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Tag
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Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T -9.5
New Orleans Bowl: North Texas +6
Cure Bowl: Georgia State +6.5
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State +7
New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State +5.5
Camellia Bowl: Middle Arkansas State -3.5
Boca Raton Bowl: Florida Atlantic -22.5
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Celebration Bowl: Grambling State +9.5
New Orleans Bowl: North Texas +6
Cure Bowl: Georgia State +6.5
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State +7
New Mexico Bowl: Marshall +5.5
Camellia Bowl: Middle Tennessee State +3.5
Boca Raton Bowl: Akron +22.5

All underdogs because whatever.
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5tarscream posted...

New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State +5.5

Incorrect, they're the favored team.
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Then -5.5
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Grambling State +9.5
Troy -6
Georgia State +6.5
Boise State +7
Marshall +5.5
Middle Tennessee State +3.5
Florida Atlantic -22.5

All right, well.

I don't care enough about FCS teams to really take anyone's word for it that NCA&T is better by 9.5 points. Give me Grambling.

I think Troy is better than North Texas and the price is right. I'll take it.

Western Kentucky is being hilariously overrated here for some reason. Georgia State will be hungry.

Royce Freeman isn't playing, so I don't understand why Oregon is favored by 7 points. Yeah, Justin Herbert's good but... ugh.

I picked Colorado State to win outright but I kinda think Marshall might be able to hang. Really on the fence here but I think I'll take the points.

MTSU/Arkansas State is also right on the fence. I have no opinion on this game and I don't feel right assuming Arkansas State is going to win by more than a FG. Betting against MTSU feels bad in my gut.

Florida Atlantic is going to take Akron to the fucking woodshed. Lane Kiffin is not going to take his foot off the gas. He wants to prove something.

Grambling State (+9.5)
North Texas (+6)
Western Kentucky (-6.5)
Boise State (+7)
Marshall (+5.5)
Arkansas State (-3.5)
Akron (+22.5)
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5tarscream posted...

Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T -9.5
New Orleans Bowl: North Texas +6
Cure Bowl: Georgia State +6.5
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State +7
New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State +5.5
Camellia Bowl: Middle Arkansas State -3.5
Boca Raton Bowl: Florida Atlantic -22.5

Middle Arkansas State?

...Well, it's listed as -3.5, so I'll assume that's Arkansas State.
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5-0 so far. Why don't you make it 6-0 just for kicks, MTSU?

I'm sorta mad because I'd be 5-0 in my straight-ups too if I didn't switch to Colorado State. I originally clicked on Marshall but decided I didn't have enough confidence in them. Oops.

Well I completely missed this. Reading Para's picks after the fact though is pretty impressive.
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Para might be impressive, but I've advanced twice in a row through pure laziness!
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lol Middle Arkansas St
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whoo

Go FAU, make it a perfect week!

Well, I've got Akron anyway, but once you've advanced, it's not always the most beneficial to get your remaining picks right if getting them wrong would keep other players from advancing. And the only set of picks that's 3-3 right now would need an FAU cover to advance.

Though overall record in your picks is the tiebreaker, so it works both ways.
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I know, I don't care. I want to get every pick right.

Well, I am 3-3 and need Akron to cover
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Round 2:

Frisco Bowl: Louisiana Tech +5 vs. SMU
Gasparilla Bowl: Temple -7 vs. Florida International
Bahamas Bowl: UAB +8 vs. Ohio
Potato Bowl Central Michigan +3 vs. Wyoming
Birmingham Bowl: Texas Tech +2.5 vs. South Florida
Armed Forces Bowl: Army +6.5 vs. San Diego State
Dollar General Bowl: Appalachian State +8 vs. Toledo

These are just the lines; I want to sleep on it a bit before picking. Or maybe just sleep.
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KCF0107 posted...

Well, I am 3-3 and need Akron to cover

Oh, I missed that. Very well then, seeing as how the line has a half-point, it seems that either KCF or 5tarscream will be joining kev, Para, and me for advancement.
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ESPN app currently showing me Wyoming is favored by -110. Lol.
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I'll take Central Michigan +110 :)
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Round 2:

Frisco Bowl: SMU -5
Gasparilla Bowl: Florida International +7
Bahamas Bowl: UAB +8
Potato Bowl: Wyoming -3
Birmingham Bowl: South Florida -2.5
Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State -6.5
Dollar General Bowl: Toledo -8
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SMU -5
Florida International +7
Ohio -8
Wyoming -3
South Florida -2.5
San Diego State -6.5
Appalachian State +8

Louisiana Tech doesn't impress me that much, I like the price for taking SMU here.

Temple is being comically overrated and I have absolutely no idea why. This should be nearly a pick-em. FIU +7 is robbery.

UAB is a really nice story, but I've heard that Ohio is one of the actually-not-to-be-fucked-with G5 teams this year and I'm sort of taking it on faith that they're superior here. I'll go with it anyway.

Gut feeling tells me we'll all be talking about how awesome Josh Allen is in a few days.

South Florida is not getting nearly enough respect here and I don't really know why. USF's going to prove that they can play. Texas Tech isn't really anything.

Army/San Diego State's probably the one I did the most thinking on. I respect both team's resumes a lot but something tells me that a SDSU team that went 2-0 against the Pac-12 shouldn't be bet against.

Toledo's good. They're real good. But I think Appalachian State deserves a fair shake.

lol

Louisiana Tech (+5)
Florida International (+7)
UAB (+8)
Wyoming (-3)
South Florida (-2.5)
San Diego State (-6.5)
Toledo (-8)
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I'll post this later when I get to a computer, but I'm going with the favored teams except FIU.
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Round 2:

SMU -5
Florida International +7
Ohio -8
Wyoming -3
South Florida -2.5
San Diego State -6.5
Toledo -8
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Frisco Bowl: SMU -5
Gasparilla Bowl: Florida International +7
Bahamas Bowl: Ohio -8
Potato Bowl Wyoming -3
Birmingham Bowl: South Florida -2.5
Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State -6.5
Dollar General Bowl: Toledo -8
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Holy crap I just checked the score.
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wow I missed it AGAIN ahhhhhhhhhhhhh. probably would've gone with SMU anyway, though.

Gasparilla Bowl: Florida International +7
Bahamas Bowl: UAB +8
Potato Bowl Central Michigan +3
Birmingham Bowl: Texas Tech +2.5
Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State -6.5
Dollar General Bowl: Toledo -8

Temple being favored by a touchdown is confusing to me. I'd pick FIU straight-up. I like Ohio to win but 8's a little high, plus the game probably means more to UAB. Central's shown they have the potential to be one of the better MAC teams, having beaten Northern Illinois and Ohio, and Wyoming just lost to San Jose St. South Florida is overrated enough to lose I think, haven't beaten anybody all year. San Diego St might actually be the best team in the Mountain West and has way better wins than Army. I could see App St keeping it close-ish but I'll bank on Toledo pulling away, they're at least a touchdown better.

Also, found out I got a free ticket to the Quick Lane Bowl wOOoooooo
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Paratroopa1 posted...

Grambling State +9.5
Troy -6
Georgia State +6.5
Boise State +7
Marshall +5.5
Middle Tennessee State +3.5
Florida Atlantic -22.5

All right, well.

I don't care enough about FCS teams to really take anyone's word for it that NCA&T is better by 9.5 points. Give me Grambling.

I think Troy is better than North Texas and the price is right. I'll take it.

Western Kentucky is being hilariously overrated here for some reason. Georgia State will be hungry.

Royce Freeman isn't playing, so I don't understand why Oregon is favored by 7 points. Yeah, Justin Herbert's good but... ugh.

I picked Colorado State to win outright but I kinda think Marshall might be able to hang. Really on the fence here but I think I'll take the points.

MTSU/Arkansas State is also right on the fence. I have no opinion on this game and I don't feel right assuming Arkansas State is going to win by more than a FG. Betting against MTSU feels bad in my gut.

Florida Atlantic is going to take Akron to the fucking woodshed. Lane Kiffin is not going to take his foot off the gas. He wants to prove something.

get this framed lul
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Yeah not only did I go 7-0 but the stuff I said about the games was on the money too - the only thing I said wrong was that I thought Colorado State would win outright (but the game was close at least)

Oh crap I didn't even see that the LT/SMU game was today and... uh, wow. RIP my perfect predictions? What the FUCK was that

I am always skeptical about teams whose head coaches left and would not coach them in the bowl. I was right to pick LT straight up.
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Oh, shit, I didn't even know SMU's coach left. Why the hell were they favored by 5 then? -5 is what the line should have looked like if the coach STAYED

Oh, and to make matters worse, the person who coached SMU in the game was someone they hired maybe 10 days ago and not an incumbent assistant who knew the players and everything. I'm sure that has happened before, but I can't imagine that said coaches have a good track record in those debuts.
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Yeah if I had known that I would have gone with LT. I was enough on the fence about SMU as it was. Guess I should actually read this stuff.

Yeah, definitely would have picked differently too.
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Alright well I couldn't have been more dead wrong about Temple.

REGRESSION TO THE MEAN

Back on track.

Round 3:

Hawai'i Bowl: Houston -2.5 vs. Fresno State
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Utah -6.5 vs. West Virginia
Quick Lane Bowl: Duke -5 vs. Northern Illinois
Cactus Bowl: Kansas State -2.5 vs. UCLA
Independence Bowl: Southern Miss +16.5 vs. Florida State
Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa -2.5 vs. Boston College
Foster Farms Bowl: Arizona -3.5 vs. Purdue

It's a good thing you don't have to know which level you're on to make your next pick, because the kickoff times for the Foster Farms and Texas Bowls are literally only half an hour apart. Anyone who goes 3-3 on the first six games of round 3 will definitely not know if they've passed it when Round 4 locks in.
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My Round 3 picks:

Fresno State +2.5
West Virginia +6.5
Duke -5
Kansas State -2.5
Southern Miss +16.5
Iowa -2.5
Arizona -3.5
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Crap, Army will go for 2 and I lose it regardless.

Then again so does everyone else, but this would've been my fourth for the round.
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Fresno State +2.5
West Virginia +6.5
Northern Illinois +5
Kansas State -2.5
Southern Miss +16.5
Boston College +2.5
Arizona -3.5

CUPCAKE ALERT. I see no particular reason for Houston to be favored so I'll take Fresno.

Surprised that Utah's favored by so much here. As much as I want to be a Pac-12 fanboy, I don't really think it makes a lot of sense. WVU's underrated. I can't justify Utah -6.5 here, ever.

Duke kinda beat the shit out of Northwestern but otherwise they're not that great? (Maybe Big Ten not all that great either? something to consider) I kinda have this game as a tossup so I'll just take the points.

UCLA's trash.

I actually have Southern Miss upsetting Florida State outright, because I like spicy upsets. This is a classic case of a game where one team won't give a shit and one team will give all the shits. I'm not even convinced that Florida State is the better team to begin with. Florida State should only be favored by a touchdown at most, not by... this.

Boston College has been one of my pet teams all year. Yeah, it's really easy to write them off, but if you actually followed them this year it got less and less surprising when they had good results. I actually expected Iowa to be favored by a little more (maybe around 5) so I'm kind of disappointed that I'm only getting 2.5 here, but I took them to win outright, so yeah let's do it.

I really believe in Arizona. I'm super glad we didn't have to play them this year.

time to be wrong some more

Hawai'i Bowl: Fresno State (+2.5)
Heart of Dallas Bowl: West Virginia (+6.5)
Quick Lane Bowl: Northern Illinois (+5)
Cactus Bowl: Kansas State (-2.5)
Independence Bowl: Southern Miss (+16.5)
Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa (-2.5)
Foster Farms Bowl: Arizona (-3.5)

Paratroopa1 posted...

I actually have Southern Miss upsetting Florida State outright, because I like spicy upsets.

Alright, this one I'm gonna call out and say, no way. 16.5 might be too many points to give them but Florida St's gonna win. I don't even feel all that confident about So Miss beating the spread. I agree with most the rest of your takes (Iowa is jekyll and hyde so it depends which one shows up).
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Well, so far Appalachian State is well on their way to giving me another advancement (although I do have Toledo winning straight-up, oh well, we'll see how this goes).

Fresno State (+2.5)
West Virginia (+6.5)
Northern Illinois (+5)
Kansas State (-2.5)
Southern Miss +16.5
Boston College (+2.5)
Arizona (-3.5)
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Wow, I'm the only one who advanced out of round 2

I'm so sorry jcgamer

this year's been a trainwreck for me so it's only fitting i go 0-fer
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