Current Events > Ukraine War Topic Part VIII

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://twitter.com/liz_cookman/status/1672616404078534657
https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1672760264972959745
https://twitter.com/Wolfe321/status/1672591334245556225

Humble_Novice posted...

https://twitter.com/liz_cookman/status/1672616404078534657
https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1672760264972959745
https://twitter.com/Wolfe321/status/1672591334245556225

Nice.

Great.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14i93ek/ukrinform_defense_forces_launch_offensive_in/
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14iefbw/ukrainian_demining_team_remove_100_mines_in_one/
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14holyv/ukrainian_air_defense_destroys_41_russian/

https://twitter.com/region776/status/1669670409678249987

So I guess Prigozhin is going to spend the rest of his lifetime worrying about polonium in his tea.

dunno none of all that yesterday made any sense.

Seems like the whole thing being some ploy between Russia, Wagner and Belarus seems about as likely as it being a real conflict.

ALIEN_WORK2HOP posted...

dunno none of all that yesterday made any sense.

Seems like the whole thing being some ploy between Russia, Wagner and Belarus seems about as likely as it being a real conflict.

You could be right. Prigozhin exiled in Belarus could just be a trick, so that he can regroup there and attack Kyiv and Lwiw with his mercenaries and troops of Russian/Belarus soldiers from there.

The events yesterday were definitely kinda odd.

Could he have chosen to exile to Belarus to get his hands on the new nukes there?

He was probably hours from taking nukes if he really wanted some.

Wagner shot down a transport aircraft with 10 persons inside yesterday.
Prigozjin has agreed to pay 50 million rubels to their families.

I think that was just Prigo's way out of a hopeless situation. He didn't want to legitimately take over Russia (now), but he had to actually threaten Moscow to have leverage to negotiate his way out of there. That's why they were relatively nonviolent.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Yeah, I was gonna say this. Best case scenario, they move some dudes to a Belarus and nothing happens, while basically looking like fools. Worst case scenario...well, Ukraine advanced pretty damn far in a single day so I guess this was the worst case scenario.

There was no benefit to this.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

They would also need to explain how Russia would be able to pull off a ruse on this scale without it getting leaked given how incompetent their military has shown itself to be so far.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

It also ignited a spark in the population.

Thanks for the topic.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Does he? Because it looks a lot to me like he threw his entire organization under the bus for some promises of safety made by people who have never upheld a promise of safety in their lives

Did the Ukraine counterattack really stall? The guys discuss @16:00 mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJQmCFTYCh8

UnholyMudcrab posted...

Does he? Because it looks a lot to me like he threw his entire organization under the bus for some promises of safety made by people who have never upheld a promise of safety in their lives

Neither of them comes out looking very good honestly.

prigozhin probably needed someone high up in the regime to side with him for a successful coup. he doesn't have nearly enough soldiers to hold moscow or any large city without significant elements of the government siding with him. he probably didn't get the assurances he needed so had to cut some kind of deal. obviously putin couldn't let a mercenary group run wild for days and potentially take key points in moscow even if they couldn't hold them. putin was forced to give prigozhin some of what he wanted probably with the hopes of assassinating him later. prigozhin will probably keep his wagner loyalists close and try to establish a base of power wherever he goes, presumably belarus at the moment. he also has an established power base on the african continent.

Links like this show that Russia really might be on the verge of collapse. https://twitter.com/jftaveira1993/status/1673042424703205377

Necronmon posted...

Links like this show that Russia really might be on the verge of collapse. https://twitter.com/jftaveira1993/status/1673042424703205377

ohshit, it's Kasparov.

It's really scary that the country with the second highest number of nuclear weapons might collapse, those nukes may end up in the hands of people who want to use them for nefarious schemes.

BadKarma_JT posted...

Did the Ukraine counterattack really stall? The guys discuss @16:00 mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJQmCFTYCh8

Things are in motion and have even picked up since the start of Prigozhin's little temper tantrum.

We're not seeing much besides a trickle of information here and there that's safe to release (due to the fact that it's an ongoing offensive they have to be very careful about opsec) but things are happening.

Full_Pokedex posted...

It's really scary that the country with the second highest number of nuclear weapons might collapse,

meanwhile, in 1991, and again in 1993...

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


No one serious thinks this was a 3d chess move by putin.

It was prig trying to get something from putin... and he got it. Then backed off.

Anyone saying this was a positive for putin is just spinning out some russophile propaganda.

Notti posted...

No one serious thinks this was a 3d chess move by putin.

There's something fucky going on.

If Prigo's rebellion can be quelled by a handful of money and a free pass to Belarus, you gotta look at who benefits. If Putin's not behind this, then Lukashenko is, and Prigozhin just got a free ticket out of Bakhmut.
Also Belarus has decent army of raving lunatics now, when Russia starts looking that way.

This may be the first step in a Lukashenko-Putin divorce.

Reminds me of the 4th July Plot during ww2.
They need to make a movie about this whole Wagner fiasco starring Tom Cruise as Prigozhin

Questionmarktarius posted...

There's something fucky going on.

If Prigo's rebellion can be quelled by a handful of money and a free pass to Belarus, you gotta look at who benefits. If Putin's not behind this, then Lukashenko is, and Prigozhin just got a free ticket out of Bakhmut.
Also Belarus has decent army of raving lunatics now, when Russia starts looking that way.

This may be the first step in a Lukashenko-Putin divorce.

definitely not. lukashenko is close to prigozhin but then again so was putin. wagner are the most elite troops currently among the russian armed forces but their actual numbers don't pose a threat to a vast nation like russia. the only way prigozhin's gambit could have worked is if he had institutional support within the russian government. either he didn't have that or thought he did and someone balked. he would never have been able to hold rostov for long with 25k men, much less take and hold moscow unless the russian army mass defected to him or a group of powerful individuals backed him.

putin had to cave to him because he couldn't have a prolonged rebellion within his borders ongoing for weeks. prigozhin was never going to take moscow with 25k troops, much less hold it. he probably saw his position was marginalized and shoigu won the battle for putins favor between them and made his move to improve his lot and give himself a chance of not getting window'd. 25k veteran fighters could cause a ton of trouble for a dictator who has personnel and equipment issues. they would have been dislodged and eradicated eventually but putin's position could have become untenable long before then

Something doesn't smell right, but I don't know what I'm smelling.

Questionmarktarius posted...

Something doesn't smell right, but I don't know what I'm smelling.

The Rock?

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1672909517171093504

InjusticeReborn posted...

Could he have chosen to exile to Belarus to get his hands on the new nukes there?

Maybe this is some kind of plan to create Chernobyl 2.0. Either Putin intentionally wants Prigo to rebel so he can have an excuse to use nukes whether be in Belarus to get rid of Prigo and make it look like an accident/sabotage or use Prigo as a scapegoat if those nukes hit Ukraine.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/27/putin-russia-nuclear-weapons-ukraine
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3937285-why-do-we-think-putin-wont-use-the-bomb/amp/

Why in the world would Putin use nuclear weapons and risk NATO getting involved to kill one man? That seems extremely short sighted and a waste of resources.

Maybe Prigo thought Putin would fold and run, and when that didn't happen... Prigo decided to cut his loss before suffering any major damage to his troops/supplies?

Can't think of any other explanation for how quickly Prigo ended his revolt.

Requiem posted...

Maybe Prigo thought Putin would fold and run, and when that didn't happen... Prigo decided to cut his loss before suffering any major damage to his troops/supplies?

Can't think of any other explanation for how quickly Prigo ended his revolt.

I mean he got everything he wanted and now doesn't have to fight in some shitty war so...

Oof: https://twitter.com/maria_ranta/status/1672924718129635329

Humble_Novice posted...

Oof: https://twitter.com/maria_ranta/status/1672924718129635329

okay, that's clever

The Kremlin remains silent on the matter of the Chefs actions. I know that not every Russian supports Putin. For example, Putins predecessors has nothing nice to say about him. Both of them criticized Putin. One of them supported the annexation of certain territories but hated the invasion of Ukraine. Maybe what happened really wasnt part of Putins plan and the Kremlin is shooked.
https://apple.news/Afkowb5rdS6C8nZj4kDQ0aQ

Karma for the Russian invaders: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14imewq/the_russians_dropped_a_prohibited_asphyxiating/

Humble_Novice posted...

Karma for the Russian invaders: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14imewq/the_russians_dropped_a_prohibited_asphyxiating/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QuGNa3osg4

Shoigus ministry has released a video that has Sergei Shoigu visiting soliders involved with the war in Ukraine. It isnt dated specifically nor does it answer any questions about Sergei Shoigu, Vladimir Putin, and Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna91084

Requiem posted...

Maybe Prigo thought Putin would fold and run, and when that didn't happen... Prigo decided to cut his loss before suffering any major damage to his troops/supplies?

Can't think of any other explanation for how quickly Prigo ended his revolt.

When everything first kicked off Russian troops seized control of Wagner's HQ in St. Petersburg. They seized personnel files, and 38 million dollars that belonged to Prigo. It's likely that was a good chunk of the money he was using to fund it, then the FSB started grabbing the family members of Wagner soldier's families.

Prigo was widely believed to have backers for his coup in various Kremlin departments. I'm guessing some of them blinked when the time to commit came. So with the roundups happening, the loss of his funds, and his support in the government backing out, he decided it was a lost cause. Or at least less than the sure bet it was when he started and took a deal while he was still in a position of power.

I think he was wrong and this will end with both him and his troops (and likely their families) dead regardless of whatever assurances he was given.

Bump for layer

ScazarMeltex posted...

Prigo was widely believed to have backers for his coup in various Kremlin departments. I'm guessing some of them blinked when the time to commit came. So with the roundups happening, the loss of his funds, and his support in the government backing out, he decided it was a lost cause. Or at least less than the sure bet it was when he started and took a deal while he was still in a position of power.

May still have, given the resolution was "that never happened".

Good see Ukraine taking grounds back.

still surprised Putin hasnt been put down yet by insiders. But based that failed coup, it might be coming either way.