Current Events > Ukraine War Topic Part VII

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html

basically prigozhin gets to go to belarus, all charges against him are dropped and he gets to keep his private army. lol putin got bent over big time and this kind of deal just telegraphs to the world and to everyone in russia that putin is incredibly weak and vulnerable. no chance russia can hold territory in ukraine and i will be shocked if putin is still the dictator at this time in '24

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


it's sounding like prigozhin got most everything he wanted. putin is basically saying if you rise up and threaten to depose him he will give into most of your demands and let you walk. shows how weak his position is. you love to see it

Paper tiger Putin.

Putin and Pregoschin probably both realised that they would both come out of that fight as a loser.

This is so stupid

andel posted...

it's sounding like prigozhin got most everything he wanted. putin is basically saying if you rise up and threaten to depose him he will give into most of your demands and let you walk. shows how weak his position is. you love to see it

What did he get really, a promise of safety? There is no way that Putin can allow a person as dangerous as Pringo to live, so it is a promise that will never be kept. Plus the deal will put a large amount of Pringo's army under the ministry of defense, thereby eliminating any way to keep said promise. I would say the agreement is a stay of execution more than anything

https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1672714551119294468

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/4/7/6/AADYzzAAEmTk.jpg

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1672648758893395968

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672716909463195649

Humble_Novice posted...

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672716909463195649

Natural reaction. It's baffling for us outsiders, but imagine how it is for them who are believing and following their favorite war criminals.

This went from "march against corruption, for justice, for russia" on one side, and "they are all stupid traitors and should rot in hell" on the other end, to "that's all folks, see ya later!" in a few hours.

They shoot down each other including helicopters, Moscow did some really desperate "defensive manouvers" like using trucks as if they were some covid protesters and destroying the road.

Just to end it like this?

All of them went out for blood, claiming "justice", and now nothing happend?

I'm really curious how the Kremlin / RT and Wagner are going to spin this in the next few days, and how they sell this to the russian people.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14i44qt/commander_of_the_3rd_assault_brigade_andriy/

Sad it's over (for now at least), but at least Ukraine made some progress

Honestly, probably better that Prigo didn't actually do anything successful. I really don't want to imagine a world where one of the largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons (working or not) falls into the control of a guy who runs a PMC.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html
Prigo is basically exiled to Belarus now.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1672708373194653699

DragonClaw01 posted...

What did he get really, a promise of safety? There is no way that Putin can allow a person as dangerous as Pringo to live, so it is a promise that will never be kept. Plus the deal will put a large amount of Pringo's army under the ministry of defense, thereby eliminating any way to keep said promise. I would say the agreement is a stay of execution more than anything

putin is openly losing face by proclaiming in front of russia and the world that wagner and prigozhin are pardoned. also, only the wagner troops that didn't participate in the uprising are getting rolled into the armed forces, the ones rhar participated all get a pardon and will presumably be going with prigozhin to belarus.

i agree that putin has to try to neutralize prigozhin, but the fact he openly caved to him shows how incredibly weak putins position is. prigozhin also is able to freely move with his army that is more elite than any of the official russian forces. prigozhin is a monster but he isn't dumb, he will surround himself with wagner troops so putin will need to turn some of them or will have to fight a battle to take him out.

Well it's unfortunate it ended so fast but hey. I think Russia lost it's best fighting force and their moral must be even lower to keep fighting now.
People of Russia got a little fear of what war at home would feel like.

though, when has Putin ever stuck to a deal he's made in the past?
like every single ceasefire since the conflict started in 2014 has been broken by Russia

one of the Minsk agreements, after making it, they openly said "this doesn't actually apply to our side" and cointinued the fight
and the new years ceasefire that Russia very loudly proclaimed was broken a few minutes in and was one of the heaviest rocket attacks of the time

so, i don't understand why anyone trusts anyone to hold to any agreement at all here

this was all pretty obvious. i think there are two obvious moves after this. dude stays in the spotlight, then they'll just continue to make him look and sound like a fool. or dude goes quiet and they find a way to kill him. either way, he'll be turned into a villain of some sort and he'll be seen as the weak attempt. this was all planned when they ordered them to join the military. again, they're better at cornering themselves in politics than they are at actual war.

internally, i think they have a strong enough grip on their media and authority to make this all wash away. the real question is whether this actually helped ukraine at all. if they're moving the mercenaries north just to strike from belarus, this isn't necessarily a good thing at all.

also the seeds have been sown for open rebellion in russia. in many ways the russia of today is a great parallel to 1917. you have a really dumb war that is openly going terrible for russia, you have open rebellion breaking out in various parts of the nation, you have financial hardship for the common people, you have elites rapidly losing power and money, you have a visibly weakened state apparatus that is unable to project powrt domestically.

the situation isn't yet as dire as it was in 1917 but today's russia is showing shades of the earlier 191x's when the seeds were being nurtured and growing. there is no way russia can continue to conscript the soldiers they need to hold in ukraine now and they just lost their most elite fighters as a unit. the ultimate end for the putin regime will likely come when enough people in key positions in the armed forces and government turn, but that process will continue to accelerate as long as more and more domestic drama unfolds and the leadership continues to look more and more impotent

GuerrillaSoldier posted...

this was all pretty obvious. i think there are two obvious moves after this. dude stays in the spotlight, then they'll just continue to make him look and sound like a fool. or dude goes quiet and they find a way to kill him. either way, he'll be turned into a villain of some sort and he'll be seen as the weak attempt. this was all planned when they ordered them to join the military. again, they're better at cornering themselves in politics than they are at actual war.

internally, i think they have a strong enough grip on their media and authority to make this all wash away. the real question is whether this actually helped ukraine at all. if they're moving the mercenaries north just to strike from belarus, this isn't necessarily a good thing at all.

what kind of russian cope is this lmao

they can't strike from belarus, they already tried that with a surprise attack and got rofflestomped. now that border is heavily mined and there is no path for russia to create another front via belarus

this is incredibly good for ukraine. obv a prolonged civil war would have been better but this ended with putin projecting incredible weakness and even more of russian society being openly antagonistic towards his regime. ukraine is making progress in all directions of its offensive and russia is without its most elite troops and they can't conscript more soldiers with the domestic situation being so precarious. ukraine has been winning for a while but this is a huge victory for them while there is no real path for russia to rebound anytime soon.

what makes you think they're getting rid of the group? they're only "getting rid" of the man who spoke to the media. this is what russia does. all of those other 50k soldiers are going to be signed into the military, and they're all going to be moved. if they move with their figurehead, that means they're all going to belarus. the same place where they're saying they're going to move nukes, and the president of belarus is becoming more and more of a known player by the day.

striking from the north and also striking again from the east/south forces ukraine to protect both side of their country, and also weakens them on the east where they need to maintain their foothold. i'm not saying russia will actually make any progress, but this attack sounds like a better idea than just hitting from the east constantly.

i wish there was enough for an uprising internally but i just don't see it. especially not after this spectacle.

Flaming_Fire619 posted...

Honestly, probably better that Prigo didn't actually do anything successful. I really don't want to imagine a world where one of the largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons (working or not) falls into the control of a guy who runs a PMC.

Would've been nice if Wagner took(and extracted) heavy casulties before fleeing/coming to an agreement though.

GuerrillaSoldier posted...

what makes you think they're getting rid of the group? they're only "getting rid" of the man who spoke to the media. this is what russia does. all of those other 50k soldiers are going to be signed into the military, and they're all going to be moved. if they move with their figurehead, that means they're all going to belarus. the same place where they're saying they're going to move nukes, and the president of belarus is becoming more and more of a known player by the day.

striking from the north and also striking again from the east/south forces ukraine to protect both side of their country, and also weakens them on the east where they need to maintain their foothold. i'm not saying russia will actually make any progress, but this attack sounds like a better idea than just hitting from the east constantly.

i wish there was enough for an uprising internally but i just don't see it. especially not after this spectacle.

russia can't attack from belarus as previously mentioned, the border is heavily mined and any demining efforts would take weeks and would telegraph any attack. when russia had the element of surprise and still had elite troops and fresh legs they got routed trying to invade from belarus. now they are much weaker and wouldn't have the element of surprise.

prigozhin is no fool, he is currently traveling with his 25k strong army and won't agree to be separated from them. russia is too weak to forcibly take away his army via force and both sides have something to gain by letting it appear to be settled while prigozhin takes his forces to belarus or wherever else he wants to go since putin and russia are too weak to stop him.

andel posted...

russia can't attack from belarus as previously mentioned, the border is heavily mined and any demining efforts would take weeks and would telegraph any attack. when russia had the element of surprise and still had elite troops and fresh legs they got routed trying to invade from belarus. now they are much weaker and wouldn't have the element of surprise.

prigozhin is no fool, he is currently traveling with his 25k strong army and won't agree to be separated from them. russia is too weak to forcibly take away his army via force and both sides have something to gain by letting it appear to be settled while prigozhin takes his forces to belarus or wherever else he wants to go since putin and russia are too weak to stop him.

Yeah. Stopping him with force would've required diverting many resources from the frontlines.

The War in Ukraine would've effectively ended there(Crimea might be held but the rest? Very doubtful) and if enough soldiers joined him/refused to fight could've toppled the regime or sparked other revolutions or massive anti war protests.

Unsuprised_Pika posted...

Yeah. Stopping him with force would've required diverting many resources from the frontlines.

The War in Ukraine would've effectively ended there(Crimea might be held but the rest? Very doubtful) and if enough soldiers joined him/refused to fight could've toppled the regime or sparked other revolutions or massive anti war protests.

yeah, the fact putin is openly agreeing to not criminally go after prigozhin or wagner shows just how weak his position is. could you imagine an armed insurgency in the states whose stated goal is the execution of the military brass and trials for the civilian leadership being let go with their army and no charges? especially after killing military personnel and occupying major cities? it would never happen here and that would normally doubly be true in a strongman dictatorship if they had the resources to resolve it any other way.

So, now what, Prigozhin and his troops are just gonna sit in Belarus and chill for the rest of the war?

ROBANN_88 posted...

So, now what, Prigozhin and his troops are just gonna sit in Belarus and chill for the rest of the war?

that's the billion dollar question imo. i could see him doing a few things. they may fuck off to belarus and recruit more people and try and build up a base of power there to make moves in the future or he could go to africa where he already has a base of power and tons of gold/diamon/mineral rights and be a kingmaker on that continent. or he could get assassinated by putin if the intelligence services can get inside his circle somehow.

andel posted...

yeah, the fact putin is openly agreeing to not criminally go after prigozhin or wagner shows just how weak his position is. could you imagine an armed insurgency in the states whose stated goal is the execution of the military brass and trials for the civilian leadership being let go with their army and no charges? especially after killing military personnel and occupying major cities? it would never happen here and that would normally doubly be true in a strongman dictatorship if they had the resources to resolve it any other way.

I could totally imagine Trump violently trying to take over America by force and never being punished for it.

Unsuprised_Pika posted...

Would've been nice if Wagner took(and extracted) heavy casulties before fleeing/coming to an agreement though.

They said that the ones who didnt join him can sign military contracts with the MOD, but I read that 25,000 of them were with him. That leaves about 25k minus however many were killed in the missile strike. So if this is correct, then he should have to take 25k mercenaries with him.

UnfairRepresent posted...

I could totally imagine Trump violently trying to take over America by force and never being punished for it.

no chance. they are finally punishing him for crimes less serious than that. if anyone openly says they are taking dc while occupying cities and murder us military personnel they would be in leavenworth forever

andel posted...

that's the billion dollar question imo. i could see him doing a few things. they may fuck off to belarus and recruit more people and try and build up a base of power there to make moves in the future or he could go to africa where he already has a base of power and tons of gold/diamon/mineral rights and be a kingmaker on that continent. or he could get assassinated by putin if the intelligence services can get inside his circle somehow.

There's that for sure.
But i was mainly thinking about the soldiers.

Soldiers who just sit on their asses are gonna get bored, and bored soldiers can get undisciplined.
And Russian undisciplined soldiers get drunk and that can be a danger to the surrounding Belarus population

While it's disappointing that this didn't go on longer, it's important to take the positive out of all of this. 25k of some of Russia's best troops out of the fight as well as the damage they did and the gains that Ukraine made all in a span of 24 hours. That's probably a couple months of work done in a day.

andel posted...

yeah, the fact putin is openly agreeing to not criminally go after prigozhin or wagner shows just how weak his position is. could you imagine an armed insurgency in the states whose stated goal is the execution of the military brass and trials for the civilian leadership being let go with their army and no charges? especially after killing military personnel and occupying major cities? it would never happen here and that would normally doubly be true in a strongman dictatorship if they had the resources to resolve it any other way.

Yeah, in any half-decently run dictatorship people like that would be executed for treason without hesitation.

ROBANN_88 posted...

There's that for sure.
But i was mainly thinking about the soldiers.

Soldiers who just sit on their asses are gonna get bored, and bored soldiers can get undisciplined.
And Russian undisciplined soldiers get drunk and that can be a danger to the surrounding Belarus population

yeah, that's definitely true, probably moreso with wagner since these guys are all already hardened soldiers and many are criminals and human rights abusers. it wouldn't shock me if prigozhin decided to take over belarus as a consolation prize since the belarusian military is really weak and almost nonexistent as they rely on putins patronage. you would think lukashenko would think of that before inviting them to come over but who knows.

Wedge_Antilles posted...

While it's disappointing that this didn't go on longer, it's important to take the positive out of all of this. 25k of some of Russia's best troops out of the fight as well as the damage they did and the gains that Ukraine made all in a span of 24 hours. That's probably a couple months of work done in a day.

for sure. would be great if it lasted months or more but it's still great for ukraine regardless.

Chev427BB posted...

Yeah, in any half-decently run dictatorship people like that would be executed for treason without hesitation.

yeah, two years ago putin would have shut that shit down with extreme prejudice. the fact that isn't happening should signal to everyone foreign and domestic how weak he is

andel posted...

yeah, two years ago putin would have shut that shit down with extreme prejudice. the fact that isn't happening should signal to everyone foreign and domestic how weak he is

I wonder if it's not just an overly-elaborate plan to get rid of Shoigu, and double down leverage on Lukashenko.
Nobody's even considered that Prigo and Putin may be working together here.

Questionmarktarius posted...

I wonder if it's not just an overly-elaborate plan to get rid of Shoigu, and double down leverage on Lukashenko.
Nobody's even considered that Prigo and Putin may be working together here.

no chance of that imo because a strongman leader like putin would never willingly allow himself to look so weak at home. if he wants to sack shoigu he would do it, plenty of the hardliners have been calling for that anyway. he is keeping shoigu so he has a fall guy to take the blame when it continues to go bad

Questionmarktarius posted...

I wonder if it's not just an overly-elaborate plan to get rid of Shoigu, and double down leverage on Lukashenko.
Nobody's even considered that Prigo and Putin may be working together here.

Shoigu would just come down with a bad case of the stairs. There's no reason to blow up a fuel depot and several Russian attack helicopters to do this.

RIP Belarus independence movement. Now Prigo and his troops are there full time to crush any rebellion.

ROBANN_88 posted...

though, when has Putin ever stuck to a deal he's made in the past?
like every single ceasefire since the conflict started in 2014 has been broken by Russia

Attacking Ukraine in the first place broke a deal.
Ukraine gave up their nukes in exchange for peace w/ Russia and the U.S.

Damn got so used to 20 posts every hour I thought topic hit 500. Eaten good last 24 hours.

Irrelevant posted...

Damn got so used to 20 posts every hour I thought topic hit 500. Eaten good last 24 hours.

the coup fizzled because lukashenko said "pls stop" so there's nothing new to report.

I find it hard to believe Wagner actually has 50k troops. This time last year they had less than 10k? Start a war then actively recruit over 5x as many people and supply them, and get whatever equipment they specialize in (tanks, mortars, etc) all within a year. Assuming they are all prior military and need minimal training, is a logistical miracle.

Blackwater/Constellis heavily recruited from prior special forces/units and they still did a heavy entry training program.

Point being, if Wagner really is the elite PMC group of Russia, they are either hiding something about their size, or there is a fuckton of non-elite troops populating their ranks.

Just a random thought I had that holds no value.

bladegash posted...

I find it hard to believe Wagner actually has 50k troops. This time last year they had less than 10k? Start a war then actively recruit over 5x as many people and supply them, and get whatever equipment they specialize in (tanks, mortars, etc) all within a year. Assuming they are all prior military and need minimal training, is a logistical miracle.

Blackwater/Constellis heavily recruited from prior special forces/units and they still did a heavy entry training program.

Point being, if Wagner really is the elite PMC group of Russia, they are either hiding something about their size, or there is a fuckton of non-elite troops populating their ranks.

Just a random thought I had that holds no value.

I don't know the accuracy of their numbers but they were literally recruiting prisoners. They are not all elite or trained at all.

specialkid8 posted...

I don't know the accuracy of their numbers but they were literally recruiting prisoners. They are not all elite or trained at all.

Oh

Very well then lol

Slava Ukraine