Current Events > Ukraine War Topic Part VII

(+) Yeah! (+)

havean776 posted...

I mean they wouldn't go ahead unless they felt they could win. They are also much more competent than Putin's army.

That might be the case but if there are only 25k of them (assuming that number is correct) and they dont have air support or all the backend support and logistics (Im assuming this and dont really know) their window to make an impact is small, they are still hundreds of miles from the capital, and may be opposed with greater firepower and shear numbers.

Maybe they can grow support and enter a longer drawn out conflict. I dont know. But history has shown that marching on Moscow isnt too easy.

ROBANN_88 posted...

The second Russian revolution, but without the communism bits

You know, Lenin & CO missed the first revolution so they staged a second one.

Foppe posted...

You know, Lenin & CO missed the first revolution so they staged a second one.

The first one was unsuccessful, so i consider that more of a prologue chapter to the real thing

Large explosion in Rustov.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1672559598237278209?cxt=HHwWgoDT6fmFkLYuAAAA

I really hope Ukraine can capitalize on this confusion and make good land gains.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/14hpph0/ua_pov_the_ukrainian_military_is_closely/

Looks like Prigozhin's spectacular rebellion wasn't a decision born out of impulse, but instead he had been hoarding ammo and supplies and been patiently waiting for the right moment (and excuse) to turn his guns on Putin.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541393263161344

ROBANN_88 posted...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/14hpph0/ua_pov_the_ukrainian_military_is_closely/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/0/8/2/AAdZpjAAEmNa.jpg

Thompson posted...

Looks like Prigozhin's spectacular rebellion wasn't a decision born out of impulse, but instead he had been hoarding ammo and supplies and been patiently waiting for the right moment (and excuse) to turn his guns on Putin.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541393263161344

I wasn't sure whether this was a hurried "Cornered Rat" type deal or planned decently in advance.

Looking like it was planned.

Thompson posted...

Looks like Prigozhin's spectacular rebellion wasn't a decision born out of impulse, but instead he had been hoarding ammo and supplies and been patiently waiting for the right moment (and excuse) to turn his guns on Putin.

Makes sense. It's possible his claims about Russia striking his forces were a ruse - or at least wildly exaggerated- as well.

Yeah, that does explain why Russia wasn't sending more ammo. They had sent enough.

DarkChozoGhost posted...

Yeah, that does explain why Russia wasn't sending more ammo. They had sent enough.

It is probably somewhere between.
Wagner requested more ammo than what they spent, Russia sent less than requested, Wagner hoarded and complained.

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1672523999425994752

The rats are fleeing the sinking ship.

Chev427BB posted...

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1672523999425994752

The rats are fleeing the sinking ship.

Ideally they all get shot down.

There is a reason they chose Turkey.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2022/05/03/why-turkey-could-become-the-next-haven-for-russian-oligarchs-fleeing-sanctions/

Foppe posted...

There is a reason they chose Turkey.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2022/05/03/why-turkey-could-become-the-next-haven-for-russian-oligarchs-fleeing-sanctions/

I feel like it's a bit of an Open Secret that Turkey is basically third in line behind Russia and China in terms of wannabe dictators. Everyone just quietly pretends they're not like that because they're NATO member, but it's only a matter of time before they try to make some kind of power play and end up in the same situation as Russia is now.

Erdogan is cut from the same cloth as Putin.

Honestly, everyone fleeing makes me more concerned of Putin doing something stupid. At this point it's do or die for him so what does he have to lose? Before you could at least push for a propagandic victory of liberating Ukraine from Nazis. Now when your own people are fighting back...

Flaming_Fire619 posted...

Honestly, everyone fleeing makes me more concerned of Putin doing something stupid. At this point it's do or die for him so what does he have to lose? Before you could at least push for a propagandic victory of liberating Ukraine from Nazis. Now when your own people are fighting back...

If he is as depressed as reported, he might as well just think "fuck it" and blow his brain out.

Thompson posted...

Looks like Prigozhin's spectacular rebellion wasn't a decision born out of impulse, but instead he had been hoarding ammo and supplies and been patiently waiting for the right moment (and excuse) to turn his guns on Putin.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541393263161344

Unsuprised_Pika posted...

I wasn't sure whether this was a hurried "Cornered Rat" type deal or planned decently in advance.

Looking like it was planned.

It can easily be both. Prigo is a smart dude and probably the most experienced field officer there. Hording ammo and supplies is an age old game because you never know when things are gonna go tits up logistically. So you horde it but keep saying you don't have any.

As I said earlier, I feel like Wagner's turn was inevitable from the point where things got really bad in Bakhmut and Wagner was told to just stick their dick deeper into the meat grinder and Prigo started shit talking about the war and the MoD's handling of it. Then the July 1st deadline to register for service with MoD just sealed the deal.

Prigo, and anyone paying attention, has to know that this will get him killed, so he starts planning for what he'll do when the Russians try. If it happens, he's prepared, if it doesn't, then he's out nothing.

Prigo and Wagner are mercs at their core. They want to get fucking paid. Plus the contracts that they can take and how much they can make off of them are tied to how many troops they can field. Which means Russia making them grind their way through Bakhmut is bad for the ability to get paid.

There are tons of factors in play here so you can't think linearly about it. The important thing is this though, now that Wagner has made this move, regardless of how they got there, they have to see it through. There is no turning back for them. They either see this through or they are dead. It is very similar to the Julius Caesar returning from Gaul and marching on Rome

Snakethief posted...

Just got up. Any news?

What was the last you heard?
Wagner wants to take the power and marches towards Moscow.

ScazarMeltex posted...

It is very similar to the Julius Caesar returning from Gaul and marching on Rome

You're the first person I've actually seen make the Caesar comparison. I'm expecting to see it brought up a lot more, but I was chatting yesterday with a friend of mine who teaches classics and we were both in agreement that it's closest historical comparison to what we're seeing happen right now.

It also reinforces Caesar's age old wisdom that the most important thing for a leader is to make his soldiers loyal to him, not the state. Putin has been shoving conscripts into a meat grinder without the slightest concern for their life. Meanwhile, prigo seems to be treating them like some sort of war family, calling them his boys and fighting on the front lines with them. If the Russian military turns on the government and sides with wagner, it will be precisely because they know who is going to treat them well and who will keep abusing them.

Snakethief posted...

That was pretty much where i left off. Putin dead yet?

Some reports said that his helicopter flied towards his bunker.
Lots of private jets are leaving Moscow.

Zelensky: "I need ammo, not a ride."
RatPutin: https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672590045495148544

Foppe posted...

Some reports said that his helicopter flied towards his bunker.
Lots of private jets are leaving Moscow.

Don't forget Lukashenko's jet leaving Belarus and going to Turkey.

All this talk about Ceasar reminds me of panem et circenses.

ScazarMeltex posted...

Don't forget Lukashenko's jet leaving Belarus and going to Turkey.

Oh yeah, I joked that Turkey would lobby Belarus to join NATO before Sweden.

Oh, and Putin asked for help from CSTO, the Russian NATO, and they said nope!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/1/1/8/AAe-oZAAEmN-.jpg

tankies and vatniks have been VERY quiet about all this lol

Lobinde posted...

tankies and vatniks have been VERY quiet about all this lol

The response will be very predictable.

After spending 1.5 years denying that Russia is sending nazis into Ukraine to murder innocent people they will very suddenly discover that Wagner is a nazi group. Then they will yell at us saying we support nazis and Wagner is a CIA backed coup.

Lobinde posted...

tankies and vatniks have been VERY quiet about all this lol

"It's all part of glorious leader Putin master plan. "
Chuds

Honestly I still expect this to end in failure. But even if it does losing 25k of the most competent fighters is a hell of a blow. Not including the morale and anyone who has switched sides.

Flaming_Fire619 posted...

Honestly I still expect this to end in failure. But even if it does losing 25k of the most competent fighters is a hell of a blow. Not including the morale and anyone who has switched sides.

Plus it it exposes a whole lot of weaknesses. Like, how are they able to get that far? What is Putin going to do about all the towns and villages that gave him a warm welcome? How is the propaganda team going to handle the reality of the war in Ukraine blowing wide open? How about the fact that none of Putin's supposed allies came to his assistance, or the fact that all the wealthy elites immediately fled to Turkey as soon as things were looking dangerous?

Flaming_Fire619 posted...

Honestly I still expect this to end in failure. But even if it does losing 25k of the most competent fighters is a hell of a blow. Not including the morale and anyone who has switched sides.

Every helicopter they destroy, every tank they disable, every soldier they stop is one less for Ukraine to worry about.

The U.S. and NATO need to carefully track every flight out of Russia to other countries, then get "boots on the ground" to track where these nazis flee from there and hunt them down for trial at the Hague (or end them if they try to resist).
I don't want another "nazis lounging in South America for decades" situation. Putin especially, he already is proven to have body doubles and will undoubtedly try to use them to obscure his true destination.

For Ukraine, I hope Putin pulls back his troops and gives them a huge opportunity to take back land easily. I'm honestly disappointed that Prigo's basically had the red carpet rolled out for him and Kremlin cronies are already fleeing rather than fighting. Shockingly real risk that emperor Putler will be fully replaced in less than a week by an equally evil shit bag, with little to no change in Russian troop strength or positioning.

Oops I posted in the news topic. Came to say: well Russian shills should be happy because there's a conflict with Russians on both sides so a side they root for wins!

s0nicfan posted...

Plus it it exposes a whole lot of weaknesses. Like, how are they able to get that far? What is Putin going to do about all the towns and villages that gave him a warm welcome? How is the propaganda team going to handle the reality of the war in Ukraine blowing wide open? How about the fact that none of Putin's supposed allies came to his assistance, or the fact that all the wealthy elites immediately fled to Turkey as soon as things were looking dangerous?

Also, what will happen to the Nuclear Weapons?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/25/russias-nuclear-arsenal-how-big-is-it-and-who-controls-it#
https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna90114

Foppe posted...

Lots of private jets are leaving Moscow.

That's what I'm here for.

Lets hope some of the regions/states of Russa decide to use this declare independence from Russia.

Russia can't fight Ukraine, Wagner and seccesionists at the same time.

anyone think Moscow is gonna be another Bahkmut or are they just gonna roll on through?

ROBANN_88 posted...

anyone think Moscow is gonna be another Bahkmut or are they just gonna roll on through?

Maybe both? They roll on in and Putin recalls some soldiers from Ukraine to "liberate" Moscow?

I wonder if the People of Russia will force an end to the war after this.

Literally an army of mercenaries and criminals is about to seize the capitol as a result of the war and their leaders are fleeing. On top of all the violent put downs unjust arrests, sweeping new laws, unpopular conscripting, mass casulities and the war was starting to spill into Russia more even before this.

Now even internally its impossible for Putin to retain a aura of Competence and strength.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/1/4/AAA5FdAAEmPe.jpg

https://twitter.com/realGollumTrump/status/1672612563157151746

https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1672589699280519168

The popcorn memes are welcome hilarity in an uncertain and tense time.

Mondelez sells popcorn.