Board 8 > Stock Topic 21

(+) Yeah! (+)

HOLD UP FOLKS

How the hell did I miss that TN is on the list of 7 states without state income taxes!? That's where I am! :O I know every year I do my taxes, I've never had to fill out my state taxes but I thought that was just because I never made enough for it to matter or something lol

Does this mean I pay 0% on all income from stocks!? Or do I still pay capital gains rates at the federal level? If I pay absolutely nothing in taxes from my gains I think I'm gonna cry

---

StartTheMachine posted...

HOLD UP FOLKS

How the hell did I miss that TN is on the list of 7 states without state income taxes!? That's where I am! :O I know every year I do my taxes, I've never had to fill out my state taxes but I thought that was just because I never made enough for it to matter or something lol

Does this mean I pay 0% on all income from stocks!? Or do I still pay capital gains rates at the federal level? If I pay absolutely nothing in taxes from my gains I think I'm gonna cry

You still pay federal taxes. But not paying state taxes is big savings.

---

You still gotta pay federal taxes like everyone else. I feel bad bursting your bubble, but that's simply how it goes.

---

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html

This article confirms what I was thinking. It turns out that historically virtually all of the gains in the stock market occur overnight. The S&P 500 was actually slightly down over 25 years from 1993 to 2018 if you only count movement during market hours!

I think it makes sense because there are day traders who fear holding overnight, so they will sell shortly before close so that they don't have to hold overnight....driving down the prices at close.

---

That's what I figured so no bubble busted! I'm still stoked.

---

So based on that data from the NYT, it looks like the "time in market" that really matters is the time you are invested when the market is closed. If you think about it from the point of view of risk premium, it makes perfect sense. During market hours, you can immediately close a position if you want, so the risk is lower than overnight when you can't close the position until morning and it may gap down a lot at open. I was always puzzled by the statistic that a really high percentage of daytraders lose money, but this would be another good reason why! They're not actually earning the risk premium if they aren't holding overnight.

On a different note, I checked the account someone else is managing for me today. Happy to see they are also up a nice percentage over the past few months (although not as high as mine), and we don't currently have any of the same stocks. I am a little surprised at there being no overlap given that we each have around 15 stocks. Some of the trades have included stocks I would never choose if I were making the decisions. But, that's the point of independently running these accounts - it's an additional layer of diversification.


---

But how much GameStop did he buy you

---

masterplum posted...

But how much GameStop did he buy you

None.

---

Im not surprised by that. Not at all. Thats when earnings are released, after all, though thats only part of the reason.

Buy these big BTC/ETH dips?
---

Jakyl25 posted...

Buy these big BTC/ETH dips?

Go for it. I don't think either are going to get significantly lower than this in the near future.

Jakyl25 posted...

Buy these big BTC/ETH dips?

you already know my answer here!

---

SPCE announced they are delaying the test flight to perform additional checks. Well, glad I sold off a bunch of shares yesterday instead of waiting for today. Not too worried about my remaining shares that I intend to hold through the launch - whether the launch happens sooner or later, the timing ultimately matters little. The result matters a lot. Unless you bought short-term calls, in which case, uh, too bad for you.

GME volume has fallen off the face of the earth - just 12 million yesterday. So far today we are under 5 million.

---

SQ and CRWD proving that buying the hype > buying the report.

I have a hectic day at work but will try sniping some month-out earning report companies for everyone.

oh ya go my LNK

If this gets to $50 this year I will be mightily pleased

Hey how long are we holding ATNF

---

Can someone familiar with Coinbase explain to me that the percentages here are indicating? Is it daily increase/decrease? Or since the crypto never closes, is it by 24 hours?

Crypto is tradeable 24 hours a day so that means when it shows you the +% it's a moving target. So even if a coin is down 10% in the last hour it might show a green +% because at this time yesterday it was down even further so relative to exactly 24 hours ago it's actually up.

The one thing I like about Coinbase is actually being able to sort by "change in past 1 hour" and I can use that to suss out coins that took a dramatic enough dip that I can expect to pick up a couple % when they correct to their moving average. But by default it should be showing you the 24 hour change.

---

CCIV came through for me

---

neonreaper posted...

Hey how long are we holding ATNF

I never bought more than a tiny bit, still hoping for a little bit of a pullback since I was originally looking at it in the 3s. But when I buy more, I plan to hold until it at least goes above pre-Covid levels again.

---

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pokemon-happy-meals-ebay-online-resellers-154355358.html

@DoomTheGyarados

Already on it. Though I don't do quick flips like that. I get stuff graded and collect.

---

Chris what's your most valuable card?

Apparently Coinbase is doing a direct listing. Hopefully this will get rid of the ridiculous first day surge.


---

GameStonk posted...

Chris what's your most valuable card?

Hrm.

Probably one of my psa 10 skyridge cards. Or maybe my black label hidden fates charizard. I mostly stay out of super high end stuff for singles. We are talking 4-7k range

---

red sox 777 posted...

Apparently Coinbase is doing a direct listing. Hopefully this will get rid of the ridiculous first day surge.

Sweet. Definitely gonna get in if thats the case.

So today I have been looking at old screenshots I took during my stock market days back then in later 2019/early 2020
I used to take a screen of every buy/sell interaction and sometimes I took a screenshot of various things like how the indices performed in that day etc
Anyway I have 3 points I want to address -

1.Almost every non-meme stock doubled itself. Some even tripled. Long term (when you know which stocks to pick) is such the way to go
2.I looked at some screenshots from the Coronavirus market crash, and i'll be honest - my body shivered for a second. Like some sort of PTSD or something, I legit took a slight shiver when I saw them.
It's been 11 months since the market crash ended so I assume most of us forgot what fear is, but guys - it's real and it's scary. major indices being down 8-10% per day. Good stocks going down 20% per day. Almost everything is red so even if you have a diverse portfolio you will lose a lot of money. And remember, if a stock goes down not only you don't earn money from it, buy you lose money from it.

3.I had plenty of "more luck than skill", "first one is free", "beginners luck" kind of situations, until the time I got burned
I bring this up because of Moonroof trying to gamble earnings
This is in Hebrew, but look at this shit-

I bought 154 shares of Spotify in the pre market, after they Published their earnings. Yes, I was insane enough to go in with $20k (nowadays I don't even gamble 2k on earnings...)
That was a pre market when the stock was up 13% already IIRC and I still went in
I didn't even look at it for 90 minutes! then I checked and saw I had 7% profit and sold.

Nowadays I am fully aware of how pre-market can be misleading. I have seen so many times that a stock was up big in pre market but then when the market opened it lost all of it's gains and sometimes even turned red.
Now I know this, but back then I didn't. I just think of how much money I could have lost because I was inexperienced and stupid. But you know, beginners luck! probably.
And the most impressive thing about it? is how many times it worked well for me. Went in blind into a stock with a lot of cash, profit, happy, continue on
Then one time it bit me in the ass and it was painful

---

red sox 777 posted...

Apparently Coinbase is doing a direct listing. Hopefully this will get rid of the ridiculous first day surge.

We are in this together

Moonroof:

<img src="//:0"><img src="//:0">

---

Gains are gains!

Nanis, what you are describing (buying stocks blindly after earnings) sounds like pure gambling. Moonroof's strategy of choosing stocks to hold through earnings has better reasoning.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13090/w13090.pdf

Per this research paper, there historically has been (keep in mind their data ends in 2004) a small premium to buying stocks and holding through earnings. They calculated the advantage at around 0.6% for holding for a month around earnings (vs. holding a stock not declaring earnings that month). That works out to about 7.4% per year if you repeat this 12 times with compounding. They don't have data for holding for one single day across the earnings announcement though.

That said, this paper is from 2007 and I'd be shocked if a lot of banks/hedge funds/quants hadn't discovered the earnings premium ages ago, which would reduce it. Although, the authors of the paper believe that it is mostly retail traders driving the earnings premium.

So I am considering setting aside like 5-10% of my portfolio to try this strategy of plunging the money into earnings, repeatedly and sequentially, day after day with a different company announcing earnings that day. The downside would be that that money is not being invested in companies I actually believe in, since it's constantly being cycled through companies announcing earnings. Another downside is that this feels like a ton of work for probably not very much reward.

---

BTC to 50k lets go

---

My strategy wasnt bad. It just wasnt good. I picked high-performing stocks knowing Id be able to hold them in the event their earnings disappointed. We will see how long I have to hold NET.

If you have to hold companies that go down, this probably loses a lot of its power. I think the way to play it is to sell no matter what the day after earnings and reinvest into another company before earnings. But yeah, I'm skeptical this would do better than just buying and holding companies you really like long term.

---

I searched and didnt see any other ones Id like. So I dont mind holding for now. Plus I still think its a good company.

I really miss the days where @sballen @SBAllen would have a throwaway Character Battle in the beginning of the year - instead I get my kicks of reading a topic about stocks on a gaming message board. Sigh.

red sox 777 posted...

Nanis, what you are describing (buying stocks blindly after earnings) sounds like pure gambling. Moonroof's strategy of choosing stocks to hold through earnings has better reasoning.

I know, which is why I am not doing this anymore. I just wanted to give an example of my beginners luck

My best gain (ever) was Teva after earnings in January 2020. I went in before the earnings with a whooping $30k. Teva killed it, and went from 9.17 to 10.54...in two days. Yes, I held $30k over two days.
Total gain was 10% and it was..nice

That day was my peak lmao. Everything after that sucked and the next time I tried was 10 days after that and I lost 20% doing the same thing
Then a few days later a market crash happened

I want to say "I learned from my mistakes" but is getting traumatized considered learning?

---

Risking $30k to make $3k (minus 35% after taxes) is pretty idiotic. That is like sports betting on a heavy favorite every week.

My advice would be to stop doing that and start picking companies you want to hold for an extended period of time.

Nanis23 posted...

I know, which is why I am not doing this anymore. I just wanted to give an example of my beginners luck

My best gain (ever) was Teva after earnings in January 2020. I went in before the earnings with a whooping $30k. Teva killed it, and went from 9.17 to 10.54...in two days. Yes, I held $30k over two days.
Total gain was 10% and it was..nice

That day was my peak lmao. Everything after that sucked and the next time I tried was 10 days after that and I lost 20% doing the same thing
Then a few days later a market crash happened

I want to say "I learned from my mistakes" but is getting traumatized considered learning?

That depends on what you're learning. A lot of people lost a lot of money in the 1929 crash and what they learned from that was to never invest in stocks again, which cost them a lot of money over the next few decades as they missed out on big gains. It sounds a lot like the same may happened to you with the Feb-March 2020 crash.

---

GameStonk posted...

Risking $30k to make $3k (minus 35% after taxes) is pretty idiotic. That is like sports betting on a heavy favorite every week.

My advice would be to stop doing that and start picking companies you want to hold for an extended period of time.

I disagree. Hes not risking $30k at all because its not going to stop to $0. In fact, he gained 10% on two days which is very good. We get spoiled with meme stocks but putting those aside, this was a great gain. Obviously, it could have gone south (and by that I mean a loss of like 10% max) but Im assuming Nanis picked a company he researched at least a little bit.

Sunroof posted...

I disagree. Hes not risking $30k at all because its not going to stop to $0. In fact, he gained 10% on two days which is very good. We get spoiled with meme stocks but putting those aside, this was a great gain. Obviously, it could have gone south (and by that I mean a loss of like 10% max) but Im assuming Nanis picked a company he researched at least a little bit.

Do this 100 times in a year and you'll be lucky to make a 10% net gain at the end, whereas invest wisely 5 times and you can double your money. If he wants that day trading high then he should become an i-banker and play with institutional money instead.

If he did research on the company first than that was a wise investment. Just because it happened to get 10% after earnings doesnt mean it was a bad investment.

Sunroof posted...

I disagree. Hes not risking $30k at all because its not going to stop to $0. In fact, he gained 10% on two days which is very good. We get spoiled with meme stocks but putting those aside, this was a great gain. Obviously, it could have gone south (and by that I mean a loss of like 10% max) but Im assuming Nanis picked a company he researched at least a little bit.

LOL Teva is like one of the most dangerous stocks ever
It's in a debt that will take them 10 years to pay off and under plenty of lawsuits
But it IS the best momentum stock I have ever seen, like whenever it somehow gains a momentum, I jump on it and it almost always pay off. Probably the most predictable stock ever.

It was dumb but I also agree that it was worth it. It isn't that I put $30k in TLRY or GME (the day it dropped 65%). It could go south but it would super surpise me if it was more than 10% loss (which would be $3k and it's a lot of money but not something that would bankrupt me)

---

The thing about doing this 100 times, is that you're probably eventually going to hit a company like LK that doesn't release earnings, and instead announces they've committed fraud. Then it gaps down 80% at open the next day. Absolutely it can go down much more than 10%. I agree that this strategy is probably profitable but it is absolutely not low risk.

---

Yeah instead of investing 30k on something that can make 3k 10x invest 3k on something that can make 6k 100x

You will make a lot more money

---

Just wait for a 10% dip and go all in on ARKK
Easy money kthx bye

(No not really)

---

British Oil is apparently up 5% on the London Stock Exchange

AMC about to be humbled by this play. I can't wait.

---

Looks like I owe around $2900 in federal taxes for 2020. Much less than I was expecting considering I gained $22k in stocks.

that crypto crash last night was tasty. I missed out on buying the very bottom of the dip but I did load up on some cheaper ETH and ADA

---