Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 363: SEC Speed

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Suprak the Stud
02/02/21 8:15:18 PM
#102:


And yeah the house is a major concern if the democrats don't do good things that they can campaign on in these next two years. It is already hard enough in a midterm, and that gap is crazy narrow.

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LordoftheMorons
02/02/21 8:15:26 PM
#103:


I think 2022 is a neutral map at best. Last I looked at it I wanna say there were like three Dems that seemed to me to be vulnerable (and I don't remember if that was counting Warnock's seat or not) and maybe four winnable seats (though I think most of those would be uphill). Combine that with the incumbent's party usually losing ground in the midterms and having no margin for error and it's gonna be tough.

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LordoftheMorons
02/02/21 8:16:34 PM
#104:


Suprak the Stud posted...
It would be a "fine" map if not for the fact it was a midterm election and the democrats hold the presidency. Historically that tends to suck. Although I thought the same thing about Georgia so I'll just keep reverse jinxing the democrats with my pessimism at this point!

Toomey is retiring and there is one more seat in a Biden won state with zero states up for democrats in states that Biden lost. I think the biggest concerns for dems are NH and NV. Particularly with how close NV was in 2020.
The Dem seat most in danger is definitely Warnock's, but yeah NV, NH, and AZ are also all potential R pickups

(I guess that answers my question as to whether or not my three counted Georgia... unfortunately not!)

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TheRock1525
02/02/21 8:16:52 PM
#105:


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-all-those-gop-retirements-mean-for-the-2022-senate-map/

Basically unlike the 2018 and 2020 maps, this one is in favor of the Dems.

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Suprak the Stud
02/02/21 8:18:33 PM
#106:


Oh Warnock. Duh.

Georgia is at least trending blue while NV has been trending red. But yeah, I definitely agree with your assessment of him being the most vulnerable for sure.

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Moops?
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ChaosTonyV4
02/02/21 8:18:43 PM
#107:


https://twitter.com/newsweek/status/1356364137803075589?s=21

This is very funny.

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Paratroopa1
02/02/21 8:19:35 PM
#108:


I don't know why people keep saying 2022 is a favorable senate map for democrats when it's a favorable senate map for republicans
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xp1337
02/02/21 8:20:24 PM
#109:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
...this seems to contradict basically everything I've seen anywhere regarding the 2022 map.
No, the 2022 Senate map is the "good" one for Dems. Minimal defense with a few targets.

2022 (Class 3 Senators; 2010, 2016)
Dems at risk: NH, AZ (Kelly), NV, GA (Warnock)
Dem pickup targets: PA, WI, NC, FL

2024 (Class 1 Senators; 2012, 2018)
Dems at risk: MT, NV, AZ (Sinema), WI, MI, PA, WV, OH, ME
Dem pickup targets: FL, TX (Cruz) Seriously. GOP only have 10 seats to defend on this map and those are the best chances lol.

2026 (Class 2 Senators; 2014, 2020)
Dems at risk: GA (Ossoff), MI, MN
Dem pickup targets: ME (Collins), NC

Like maybe the Class 2 map is better now but only because it didn't go as great as hoped in 2020 so there's not much more losses that can be taken there. =/

class 1 map a nightmare tho

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Paratroopa1
02/02/21 8:22:23 PM
#110:


I think perhaps my disagreement with the assessment of the 2022 map comes from people considering Florida a pickup target. Florida's not a pickup target, give it up
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xp1337
02/02/21 8:22:41 PM
#111:


Basically, you have to look at the 3 Class maps relative to each other. None are great because the Senate is a bullshit institution that perverts democracy but the Class 3 map may well be least bad and has the most pickup targets left as elections continue to become more and more nationalized and states are locking in across the board.

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Suprak the Stud
02/02/21 8:23:41 PM
#112:


Youre also missing Montana from that Class 1 map.

So up the brutal factor another notch!

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Moops?
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xp1337
02/02/21 8:24:01 PM
#113:


Paratroopa1 posted...
I think perhaps my disagreement with the assessment of the 2022 map comes from people considering Florida a pickup target. Florida's not a pickup target, give it up
I mean, it isn't really. But I was giving a leeway on both ends. There are at risk seats on both sides there I don't personally agree with but I listed there to represent a broad picture so everyone could make up their own minds.

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xp1337
02/02/21 8:24:35 PM
#114:


Suprak the Stud posted...
Youre also missing Montana from that Class 1 map.

So up the brutal factor another notch!
fuck

you're right

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fuming
02/02/21 8:25:45 PM
#115:


I would have some hope that the mid term turnout being generally depressed could be somewhat mitigated in a key state like AZ because they do mail in voting. I haven't seen any data on that but my guess would be that it would help.
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masterplum
02/02/21 8:26:15 PM
#116:


Class 1 falling on a presidential election is a huge boon to democrats given that old people are the ones who vote in off years

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Paratroopa1
02/02/21 8:27:26 PM
#117:


masterplum posted...
Class 1 falling on a presidential election is a huge boon to democrats given that old people are the ones who vote in off years
This is a good point actually, it's extremely fortunate that 2024 happens in a presidential year - the 2024 senate will be tied at the hip with Biden's popularity
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xp1337
02/02/21 8:28:54 PM
#118:


masterplum posted...
Class 1 falling on a presidential election is a huge boon to democrats given that old people are the ones who vote in off years
I actually almost made a comment literally stating "thank god class 1 is on a presidential cycle this time" with that post but I mean who knows wtf will happen there. I mean, better that than a midterm but still.

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masterplum
02/02/21 8:32:06 PM
#119:


xp1337 posted...
I actually almost made a comment literally stating "thank god class 1 is on a presidential cycle this time" with that post but I mean who knows wtf will happen there. I mean, better that than a midterm but still.

If Biden completely falls apart it's going to be terrible for democrats, but honestly if Biden completely falls apart and a Republican beats him in 2024 we already are in questionable territory given the current state of the Republican party.

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Jakyl25
02/02/21 8:50:13 PM
#120:


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fuming
02/02/21 9:35:03 PM
#121:


Jakyl25 posted...
https://twitter.com/actbrigitte/status/1356729705349709824?s=21

I cant not laugh at the Space Force

I think a lot of people don't take the space force seriously because the goofy name and the fact that the game show president created it, but it was a long term plan originally envisioned by Rumsfeld in the Bush administration.

https://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/Arming-outer-space-2511659.php
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Corrik7
02/02/21 9:42:35 PM
#122:


I'm sure in 500 years they will laugh about the Inter-Galactic Defense Force also.

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kevwaffles
02/02/21 9:47:44 PM
#123:


Long term plan is one thing, but until they have enough responsibilities that weren't just already easily covered by the Air Force, they're a joke.

Also I am beyond sure that the long term plans of Rumsfeld weren't even known by Trump when he made this decision, let alone them being an influence.
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UshiromiyaEva
02/02/21 10:11:14 PM
#124:


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LinkMarioSamus
02/03/21 8:07:41 AM
#125:


No we need a space force in case Santa Claus is kidnaped by Martians.

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LordoftheMorons
02/03/21 8:38:52 AM
#126:


Jesus

https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/1356861792622903301?s=21

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Corrik7
02/03/21 8:41:03 AM
#127:


kevwaffles posted...
Long term plan is one thing, but until they have enough responsibilities that weren't just already easily covered by the Air Force, they're a joke.

Also I am beyond sure that the long term plans of Rumsfeld weren't even known by Trump when he made this decision, let alone them being an influence.
They already explained why it doesn't work well as just as the air force because it pulls from all different forces and can be a logistics nightmare due to that.

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Jakyl25
02/03/21 9:14:53 AM
#128:


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LordoftheMorons
02/03/21 9:37:43 AM
#129:


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xp1337
02/03/21 9:46:39 AM
#130:


I have to say that all these reports where Biden is saying he doesn't want to repeat the Obama-era mistakes is really encouraging to me.

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1356961966435229703

thread also has manchin playing the game to the point where i'm more worried about sinema tbqh

Also in "fucking finally" news: https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/1356969852964118530

Though Sanders had been under the impression this was going to get done yesterday so until it actually, actually happens this occupies a fair deal of space in my head because it is so absurd.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/03/21 10:09:35 AM
#131:


Jakyl25 posted...
https://twitter.com/ethangach/status/1356967776062214145?s=21

Neither party can function without an enemy

LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/james7holland/status/1356751758316474368?s=21

These two posts back to back is just...*chef's kiss*

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Phantom Dust.
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ChaosTonyV4
02/03/21 10:11:57 AM
#132:


(Not that I think Putin is a good guy or anything, but we've got more than enough going on to worry about corruption in other countries. I'm not interested in any foreign conflicts, except ending the ones we started.)

Anyway:

https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1356848559677730821?s=20

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Phantom Dust.
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HeroDelTiempo17
02/03/21 11:09:28 AM
#133:


https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1356961966435229703?s=19

Ok so Biden was pretending to be a moron to get votes but behind closed doors seems to be actually aware of what's going on.

I know that is the optimal play but god damn our political climate is so stupid

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TheRock1525
02/03/21 11:59:33 AM
#134:


Biden was doing what literally every president does when elected: a call for unity.

Even Trump did it.

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Suprak the Stud
02/03/21 4:03:07 PM
#135:


Well I think it was fair to be worried about Biden paying that more than lip service considering how he was always considered a reach across the aisle kind of guy. I dont think it was unreasonable for people to think he might get nothing done because he was committed to this idea of bipartisanship.

Again, I will gladly admit to being wrong if he actually learned his lessons from the Obama administration and winds up being a more successful president because of that. Thats something Id loved to be wrong about and at least the early returns are much more promising than I thought.

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Moops?
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StartTheMachine
02/03/21 5:05:28 PM
#136:


https://youtu.be/nqGHxdVu4vw

This is hands down one of the funniest news clips I've ever seen. Maybe the new GOAT.

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xp1337
02/03/21 5:08:08 PM
#137:


Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders is now officially a reality.

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1357086687348854784

Organizing resolution passes through unanimous consent.

now we can finally schedule hearings for Attorney General Merrick Garland

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UshiromiyaEva
02/03/21 6:19:36 PM
#138:


Do they need majority or two thirds vote in the house tomorrow to oust MTG?

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xp1337
02/03/21 6:24:08 PM
#139:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Do they need majority or two thirds vote in the house tomorrow to oust MTG?
The vote tomorrow is to remove her from being on House committees and my understanding is that it can be done with a simple majority vote.

Actual expulsion from the House would require two-thirds but that isn't what is at issue I think.

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red sox 777
02/03/21 6:24:28 PM
#140:


Probably just majority if it's to remove her from committees.

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Xeybozn
02/03/21 6:25:37 PM
#141:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Do they need majority or two thirds vote in the house tomorrow to oust MTG?

Two-thirds. Could you imagine what a trainwreck Congress would be if they could kick members out by simple majority?

Edit: Oh, apparently tomorrow's vote is only about committee memberships. That can be done by simple majority.
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red sox 777
02/03/21 6:27:21 PM
#142:


It's 2/3 to expel a member from the House, but I didn't think it was the same for committees.

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UshiromiyaEva
02/03/21 6:37:25 PM
#143:


Lol sorry yeah, I was aware they weren't voting to kick her out. Hopefully they can eventually get those numbers one day, but considering over half the Republican house are traitors I don't think it'll happen.

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LordoftheMorons
02/03/21 6:52:29 PM
#144:


https://twitter.com/DRoseTV/status/1357070052646912009

Very cool

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Peace___Frog
02/03/21 6:54:10 PM
#145:


Shocked

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LordoftheMorons
02/03/21 7:30:28 PM
#146:


In case it was somehow not already clear that the House GOP is beyond saving

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1357116355988910080

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UshiromiyaEva
02/03/21 8:03:36 PM
#147:


Some OK stuff today at least.

Justice Department dropped the Trump lawsuit against Yale about how it wasn't admitting enough white people.

Canada has officially recognized the Proud Boys as a terrorist group by law.

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UshiromiyaEva
02/03/21 9:03:17 PM
#148:


Liz Cheney keeps her position.

Seeing people wishing this wasn't a secret ballot, but I'm glad it was. We now have a definitive count of how many Republican house members actually believe their bullshit and how many are doing it for show.

https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1357142468106604544?s=19

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Corrik7
02/03/21 9:15:30 PM
#149:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/DRoseTV/status/1357070052646912009

Very cool
Lol

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Reg
02/03/21 10:00:45 PM
#150:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Seeing people wishing this wasn't a secret ballot, but I'm glad it was. We now have a definitive count of how many Republican house members actually believe their bullshit and how many are doing it for show.
On one hand, yes. On the other, the fact that ~80 reps are elevating and amplifying the bullshit for show might actually be more infuriating than if they actually believed in it lmao
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Jakyl25
02/03/21 10:36:48 PM
#151:


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