Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1354

(+) Yeah! (+)

does anyone know how the second chance contest is going to work?

there are only 15 matches left, and some 32,000 possible outcomes. there are going to be multiple perfects for sure, so it'll all come down to the tiebreaker?

even in the last contest with the crazy losers bracket, the winner ended up missing only like 3 of the last 40 matches, which is insane.

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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Feels like that "What is the best Smash game" poll.

So yeah it maybe does.

i would love to see that poll

i would LOVE to see Brawl get absolutely destroyed and come last

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GSC is the only game I have actually won a nuzlocke at, though. So it's one of my favs in the series.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

GSC is the only game I have actually won a nuzlocke at, though. So it's one of my favs in the series.

its my fav too. I prefer gold to RBY always have as a game. Pokemon in RBY are better though. But GSC were just more fun. 16 gyms fighting red and it had better structure

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Mario Kart 8 vs. MGSV who ya got

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Leonhart4 posted...

Mario Kart 8 vs. MGSV who ya got

MK8, quite easily.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Mario Kart 8 vs. MGSV who ya got

MK8 with a solid win.
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It wouldnt surprise me if MGSV was closer to Uncharted 4 than MK8

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Yuri_LowelI posted...

to be fair. They arent idiots. Theyre platinum fans that want to play his game in 1080p

They're idiots when they continually bugged him about it despite his repeated statements at the time that it wasn't up to him, it was up to Nintendo.

Just wanting to play it in 1080p is fine, harassing the dude who can't even do anything about it isn't.

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Let's go with a better question.

Leon, I have a new dumbest question ever.

What does FFXV need on FFXIV for BotW to double Skyrim?

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Let's go with a better question.

Leon, I have a new dumbest question ever.

What does FFXV need on FFXIV for BotW to double Skyrim?

I will have to look into this when I can get on my laptop!

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Let's go with a better question.

Leon, I have a new dumbest question ever.

What does FFXV need on FFXIV for BotW to double Skyrim?

46.69% right now.

Edit: Sorry, should be 46.22%
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nobody rallying for pokemon?

Team Rocket Elite posted...

46.69% right now.

Edit: Sorry, should be 46.22%

Okay so BotW doubles Skyrim easily, what does it need for the tripling?

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Okay so BotW doubles Skyrim easily, what does it need for the tripling?

61.60%

Keep in mind Skyrim is might still go up a lot from here.
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Did we have any rallies for yesterday's matches? I saw TLOU finally rose to a more reasonable 55%+, but Dark Souls dropped from 65 to 63%.

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Let's go with a better question.

Leon, I have a new dumbest question ever.

What does FFXV need on FFXIV for BotW to double Skyrim?

If my math is right, XIV needs to get 53.79% on XV.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Okay so BotW doubles Skyrim easily, what does it need for the tripling?

You think XIV beats XV? I can't see that happening!

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Oh someone was faster

Leonhart4 posted...

You think XIV beats XV? I can't see that happening!

The math means the opposite.
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Advokaiser posted...

Did we have any rallies for yesterday's matches? I saw TLOU finally rose to a more reasonable 55%+, but Dark Souls dropped from 65 to 63%.

I think we normally wait for Luster Soldier's analysis for this but I get the impression that he's been pretty busy lately so it might be a while before he posts it.
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Mac Arrowny posted...

The math means the opposite.

The number goes down as Skyrim rises but I don't know that it'll rise enough for it to be a clear FFXV win like it would need to be.

Oh wait, yeah, I'm reading that wrong. Derp. Yeah, the higher XV goes, the more above the doubling BotW goes, right, right.

I'd be curious to run those numbers against Witcher 3 and Dark Souls, too.

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So you're saying you think FF15 is stronger than FF14 but it won't be a clear win for FF15?

Edit: I just saw you said you misread.
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Yeah, I think XV would beat XIV with room to spare. I wonder how close it would get to MK8, even, which would make Skyrim look even worse here.

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If BotW gets 75% on Skyrim, MK8 gets 51.21% on FF15.
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Also, I need to think of some X-Stat thought experiments to run during the break to kill some time!

If anyone has any hypothetical scenarios you want me to run the numbers against, just let me know!

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Dark Souls vs. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
Registered Vote Result:
Dark Souls - 5501 (63.87%)
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 3112 (36.13%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Dark Souls - 4437 (61.91%)
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 2730 (38.09%)

Batman: Arkham City vs. The Last of Us
Registered Vote Result:
Batman: Arkham City - 3851 (44.71%)
The Last of Us - 4762 (55.29%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Batman: Arkham City - 3217 (44.88%)
The Last of Us - 3951 (55.12%)

Dark Souls did about 2% better with registered users, while Batman/TLoU had very similar results from both registered and anonymous users.

The vote totals in both of these matches were the lowest we've seen in all of round 3 (so far), while the percentage of registered users is the highest for all of round 3. Division 7 has consistently gotten lower vote totals than any other division, so I feel very confident that rallies had no impact on these 2 matches. I suspect TLoU's rise above 55% was the result of natural trends than rallies.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
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Leonhart4 posted...

Also, I need to think of some X-Stat thought experiments to run during the break to kill some time!

If anyone has any hypothetical scenarios you want me to run the numbers against, just let me know!

What's your best guess based on the numbers we have, what will be the last place finisher?

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Was hoping Mario Kart 8 would do better than this to be honest. Oh well, my prediction was that it would be a 40-60 split at worst which is still holding true. Glad to see it's at least not going out like a chump.

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BOTW isnt doubling Even this weak Skyrim. 63 max

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Heropon_Riki posted...

Was hoping Mario Kart 8 would do better than this to be honest. Oh well, my prediction was that it would be a 40-60 split at worst which is still holding true. Glad to see it's at least not going out like a chump.

mk8 is a wii u game. Its doing better than any mk could that was released past 2000

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What would BotW need to be in contention for top 10 all time?

Or at least top 10 in 2015

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Jeez Pokemon having a lot of trouble actually putting Nier away

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Pokemon got under 100 votes in the last 3 updates, which is the main reason why it lost those updates to Nier. In the last update, Nier also got a spike in votes which was more of a contributing factor in that huge cut.
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.

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pjbasis posted...

What would BotW need to be in contention for top 10 all time?

Or at least top 10 in 2015

Assuming a constant Life is Strange, Breath of the Wild is only behind Chrono Trigger in 2015's adjusted stats, and marginally above Ocarina of Time. Of course, that's a shaky assumption, but LiS is the only game in BotW's path so far to have made a 2015 appearance.

Assuming a constant Walking Dead (another questionable assumption of course), Breath of the Wild needs about 69.6% or more against Dragon Quest XI to break into 2015's adjusted top 10.

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Nier still in comeback range interesting

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It's funny that I'm a big fan of 2B AND her design but I still haven't gone there yet.

I think the maid robot angle just doesn't do anything for me.

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Random vote map question: what does Ireland have against Heart Gold? NieR has nearly 91% of the vote there, meanwhile UK has a 60-40 in favor of Pokemon.

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Looking up some EU trends from earlier matches and I notice that Rayman Legends managed to beat Pokemon in France! Don't say you aren't loved by your countrymen, Michel Ansel!

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Random vote map question: what does Ireland have against Heart Gold? NieR has nearly 91% of the vote there, meanwhile UK has a 60-40 in favor of Pokemon.

It's the middle of the night over here - there are probably barely double digit votes from Ireland (much lower population than UK, which is also probably going to move a lot in 4 hours time).

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Honestly Breath of the Wild's performances so far have convinced me it's a top 10 game at minimum.

It has the power of Zelda and doesn't seem to be getting ANY remotely decent anti-voting.

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Division 7 X-Stats:

Dark Souls 50.00%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 36.71%
Yakuza 0 31.39%
Rocket League 22.66%
Dragon Ball FighterZ 21.91%
Dead Cells 20.18%
Hotline Miami 17.01%
The Witness 14.19%

The Last of Us 50.00%
Batman: Arkham City 44.76%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 40.77%
Diablo III 36.72%
BioShock Infinite 35.97%
Terraria 23.26%
Zero Escape: Virtues Last Reward 22.76%
Crusader Kings II 18.15%

so who's picking Diablo III > BioShock Infinite pre-contest
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LeonhartFour posted...

so who's picking Diablo III > BioShock Infinite pre-contest

I probably wouldn't in a first impression, but I'd be up for a decent argument for it, considering Diablo III eventually became a good game, while Infinite's status cratered into the ground.

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Trend charts:

Time | Souls | MGSV | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 64.54% | 35.46% | 471 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 64.91% | 35.09% | 3192 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 64.28% | 35.72% | 8206 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 62.62% | 37.38% | 3384 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 61.16% | 38.84% | 4856 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 63.13% | 36.87% | 4719 | (17:00-24:00)

MGSV does best during the European timeframe.

Time | Batman | TLOU | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 51.81% | 48.19% | 469 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 46.96% | 53.04% | 3194 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 45.16% | 54.84% | 8204 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 43.50% | 56.50% | 3384 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 43.50% | 56.50% | 4857 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 44.78% | 55.22% | 4719 | (17:00-24:00)

What a strange early vote.
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So I am noticing that the front page now says Thanks for Voting! Next Battle in 21 hours. I'm going to guess that's a bit of an oversight, right @SBAllen ?

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Maybe we are getting bonus matches during the break.
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5 minute X-Stats (two hours late):

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 50.00%
Mario Kart 8 46.95%
Uncharted 4: A Thiefs End 38.64%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn 37.22%
Journey 25.02%
Crypt of the NecroDancer 21.19%
Fate/Grand Order 16.91%
Subnautica 16.00%

Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version 50.00%
NieR: Automata 46.95%
Bayonetta 2 29.66%
Divinity: Original Sin II 29.36%
Rayman Legends 28.03%
Celeste 27.78%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 18.08%
Night in the Woods 18.04%

Hearthstone might not even end up being the weakest game in its own eightpack!
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Diablo III > Bioshock Infinite is one of the most shocking developments of this contest for me

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LeonhartFour posted...

Bayonetta 2 29.66%
Divinity: Original Sin II 29.36%
Rayman Legends 28.03%
Celeste 27.78%

Imagine this being a fourpack that catches people off guard. Yeah, I know Bayo 2 is probably a bit better than the pack here...

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