Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 236: The Obama's new house is half baked

(+) Yeah! (+)

Jakyl25 posted...

Saw my first 2020 bumper sticker on an actual car today driving home

it was for Tulsi

even Jakyl is now censoring and un-personing TULSI from the internet!

you trying to get a job at Google or something?
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I'm sure everyone recognizes that it's just a single datapoint, but it is one to blow your eyes wide open

here's to getting more like it!
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GuessMyUserName posted...

LotM should try 'n get a Delaney bumper sticker before it's too late

Could be a collectors item! Sadly, I dont have car

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xp1337 posted...

Monmouth is an A+ rated pollster but I'll be the one to pump the brakes here. It's still a single data point. Let's all chill and wait to see if more polling reflects that/a trend in that direction.

Biden falling is a thing, but that's one heck of a collapse all at once there with a -13!

Also worth noting that the pollster ratings just reflect how well they deal with systematic errors. Nothing you can do to reduce sampling errors besides polling more people.

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GuessMyUserName posted...

I'm sure everyone recognizes that it's just a single datapoint, but it is one to blow your eyes wide open

Maybe it's just me but there's a point where it blows your eyes too open and you go from excited to thinking "outlier"!

I think the trend it shows of Biden falling and Warren/Sanders filling the vacuum is real, but it feels more like a poll taken 3 months from now or something on that trendline lol.
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It is just a single data point, but this poll last Wednesday: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u4gcv1suy6/econTabReport.pdf

Had Biden only up three. So we may be seeing some sort of trend here!
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The two polls combined point to a likely trend of each of those three being statistically tied at around a fifth of voters. And nobody else has solidly double digits.

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It's official, Dave Chappelle has officially inherited the mantle from George Carlin of "guy who speaks ACTUAL truth to ACTUAL power"
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GuessMyUserName posted...

LotM should try 'n get a Delaney bumper sticker before it's too late

a friend of mine has a Cruz-Fiorina mug and I am very jealous

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SmartMuffin posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Saw my first 2020 bumper sticker on an actual car today driving home

it was for Tulsi

even Jakyl is now censoring and un-personing TULSI from the internet!

you trying to get a job at Google or something?

Are you like making fun of yourself at this point? I'm not even sure anymore.
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Muffin just does drive-by nonsequiters at this point.
he needs his Ron Paul topic back

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Rudy Giuliani sharing Seth Rich conspiracy theories:

https://twitter.com/rudygiuliani/status/1165848920456597504?s=21
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it is so fucked up and downright evil that stuff like this is allowed to happen:

https://twitter.com/matt_cam/status/1166161730914988033

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And since we posted the other poll, new Morning Consult with Biden +13 over Sanders/+18 over Warren:

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1166169559440797696?s=21

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Biden is going to lead until more of the fodder gets out.

People will always be mostly uninformed and the more clutter on the airwaves the less likely it is people focus in on politics.

LordoftheMorons posted...

it is so fucked up and downright evil that stuff like this is allowed to happen:

https://twitter.com/matt_cam/status/1166161730914988033

The key tweet from this thread

https://twitter.com/matt_cam/status/1166182008051179520?s=21

For everyone asking how someone truly in fear for their life could be denied asylum:

Ask Jeff Sessions.

He did his part with this very bad precedent (among others), issued specifically to try to ensure that our work would be that much harder and cases like mind would be denied

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EC8cWV-W4AAE9YE?format=jpg&name=medium


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Pretty good Andrew Yang interview earlier going over his climate change plan which I'm loving for actually addressing some terrible realities we need to face.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/2020-hopeful-andrew-yang-on-plan-to-combat-climate-change-67471429979

to catch in some listeners favourably let me point out he does give a nice shout-out to Bernie in there as another candidate like himself found to be able to reach Trump voters

definitely glad Yang's still in even if he's not gonna win since at least he's got substance to bring to the debates unlike most of the bigger names
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https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/susan-collins-sara-gideon-2020-maine-election-1472411

Have I lost some votes because of my decision to support Justice Kavanaugh? Yes, I have. And Im sad about that because I explained in great depth my decision-making,

No, Susan, you ranted like a lunatic for half an hour.
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GuessMyUserName posted...

Pretty good Andrew Yang interview earlier going over his climate change plan which I'm loving for actually addressing some terrible realities we need to face.

Yang's climate plan is complete trash, I'm sorry. The major reason is that he makes no mention of the 2030 50% global emissions deadline. You have to understand that this is immediately disqualifying. This is huge, this is what the scientific consensus says we need to reach this number to prevent worst-case-scenario outcomes and snowball effects. If you skip this, the 2050 goal (which appears to be Yang's only target) becomes harder to reach AND the damage that will be done is worse. In 2030 Yang's plan appears to be...making sure new cars are zero emissions after having just started to build nuclear plants in 2027. Completely laughable. He wouldn't even be in office for most of this.

The OTHER thing wrong with Yang's climate plan is his doom and gloom argument about how the worst is already here. He's trying to paint himself as the only one who REALLY understand how boned we are. And then he...proposes the least ambitious climate plan of any candidate so far? This shows a complete lack of understanding that radical change is the only option to work here. His solution to the coast problem appears to literally be "use YangBux to move inland." I know you were shitting on Bernie's plan for being too idealist, but this is the exact opposite - a plan so pragmatist that it does nothing to address the real problem.

This is part of why I cannot stand Yang as a serious candidate. He likes to present himself as this smart, data-driven dude, he appeals to pop science (nuclear! geoengineering!) in this and other plans, but he is dramatically misinformed on this issue and pretty lackluster outside of his core issues as well.
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

GuessMyUserName posted...

Pretty good Andrew Yang interview earlier going over his climate change plan which I'm loving for actually addressing some terrible realities we need to face.

Yang's climate plan is complete trash, I'm sorry. The major reason is that he makes no mention of the 2030 50% global emissions deadline. You have to understand thst this is immediately disqualifying. This is huge, this is what the scientific consensus says we need to reach this number to prevent worst-case-scenario outcomes and snowball effects. If you skip this, the 2050 goal (which appears to be Yang's only target) becomes harder to reach AND the damage that will be done is worse. In 2030 Yang's plan appears to be...making sure new cars are zero emissions after having just started to build nuclear plants in 2027. Completely laughable. He wouldn't even be in office for most of this.

The OTHER thing wrong with Yang's climate plan is his doom and gloom argument about how the worst is already here. He's trying to paint himself as the only one who REALLY understand how boned we are. And then he...proposes the least ambitious climate plan of any candidate so far? This shows a complete lack of understanding that radical change is the only option to work here. His solution to the coast problem appears to literally be "use YangBux to move inland." I know you were shitting on Bernie's plan for being too idealist, but this is the exact opposite - a plan so pragmatist that it does nothing to address the real problem.

This is part of why I cannot stand Yang as a serious candidate. He likes to present himself as this smart, data-driven dude, he appeals to pop science (nuclear! geoengineering!) in this and other plans, but he is dramatically misinformed on this issue and pretty lackluster outside of his core issues as well.

What's this 2030 deadline? Cut carbon emissions by 50% by 2030? TBH, we'd be very lucky if we don't increase carbon emissions by 50% by 2030. Have we ever cut carbon emissions in a single year ever?

Even a target of keeping emissions in 2030 at their 2019 levels is incredibly optimistic.

If we are going to solve this problem, we are going to need major alternatives, and fast. And I mean stuff like collecting and burying carbon dioxide, space mirrors, giant white tarps over the tropical oceans, etc. We've tried cutting emissions for the last 30 years and we have completely and utterly failed. It's like excavating Pompeii with a toothpick.
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He's embracing nuclear as a way to transition to carbon neutral. Many other candidates are taking nuclear in any capacity off the table which seems flawed and plays into the false "it's dangerous energy" stereotype.

It's not the most aggressive Dem climate plan, but it's hardly the least.
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why does he wait until 2027 to start building nuclear?
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I hardly even said anything on Bernie's plan, saying I "shit on it" is nonsense. It's just that if you take issue with any singular one thing with Bernie it's instant backlash of omg you hate Bernie that completely narrows the conversation.

Saying his plan is we're boned lets move is also nonsense, admitting that some people very much *are* screwed isn't defeatist doom and gloom about the future, it's what people are already suffering from, rebuilding and repeating costs of homes in regular flooding but they cannot escape because they do not have the means. The fact that think his solution is "give em YangBux" makes me question if you even saw the policy which talks of subsidies and grants to help with people move out of the devastating situations they're trapped in.

Same with Bernie I did not say that I 100% endorse Yang's plan, what I *did* say is that I'm glad he's in the debates because he actually brings points to the conversation - which yes Bernie's plan does as well and I haven't at all said Bernie shouldn't be here, his plan absolutely is progress. Like I said about Yang, it's not even a question for him that he's not getting elected and he is not even who I favour in the primaries, but he's talking about issues that need to be in the conversation - as is Bernie.

People gotta stop pushing false dichotomies that you have to be 100% of whatever a candidate ever says, that if you take issue with some specific issue in a plan you're automatically a hater. For fuck's sake there's no shortage of Bernie advocates in here so forgive me for not feeling a need to chime in on the same positives mentioned before me, and for bringing up a big plan nobody else has.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

He's embracing nuclear as a way to transition to carbon neutral. Many other candidates are taking nuclear in any capacity off the table which seems flawed and plays into the false "it's dangerous energy" stereotype.

It's not the most aggressive Dem climate plan, but it's hardly the least.

Biden's plan includes nuclear. Beto's doesn't explicitly, but also doesn't rule it out, meaning that he's leaving the door open.

Crucially, both of these plans also include the 2030 deadline, because they understand the problem. Yang does not, and so designs an answer for an incorrect question.
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GuessMyUserName posted...

People gotta stop pushing false dichotomies that you have to be 100% of whatever a candidate ever says, that if you take issue with some specific issue in a plan you're automatically a hater. For fuck's sake there's no shortage of Bernie advocates in here so forgive me for not feeling a need to chime in on the same positives mentioned before me, and for bringing up a big plan nobody else has.

I'm not trying to be Bernie defense force but it was an easy comparison to make because these are the two extremes of the climate plans and his drew some (understandable) criticisms. Sorry if it came across that way.

My main point is that what drew you to Yang's plan - "addressing the terrible realities" - is my issue because Yang's plan does not sufficiently do that. In addition, helping low-income people who are affected by climate change now and in the immediate future is a key part of most other climate plans (it's usually called "environmental justice" or something to that effect) so he isn't even unique on that front.
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As the usual suspect when it comes to Bernie Defense Force (BDF), I didn't see GMUN as shitting on Bernie at all.
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Any solution that talks about goals for cutting carbon emissions without providing any feasible means of doing it is the height of unrealistic thinking.
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Kasich is visiting New Hampshire

speculation has begun as to whether he might run.

his betting odds to win the GOP primary are still tiny, but he has leapfrogged Pence for 2nd!

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

As the usual suspect when it comes to Bernie Defense Force (BDF), I didn't see GMUN as shitting on Bernie at all.

I mean I thought it was a little harsher than usual but maybe I just use the term "shitting on" more loosely.

Definitely shitting on Yang right now but that's my intent.
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Appreciated! Bernie is my #2 after all, with most of the other candidates being buried in a ditch far below him, so it just gets a bit annoying to often get pushed as his opposition. If Bernie weren't around we'd certainly be buried further under the weight of Biden so I absolutely am much happier with him in this race!

diverting to the topic a bit, Harris dropping before Bernie is definitely the path for Warren supporters to cheer for in the first place! Bernie/Warren is more of a team-up supporting each other right now than a direct competition taking away

The reason I specifically linked to the interview rather than posting Yang's plan in the first place though is because of the way he speaks on specific issues as flooding that do get complained as "doom and gloom" so I really appreciate the honesty for how dire the situation is. Like I mentioned, Yang ain't winning the presidency so being able to give a specific voice is exactly the role I like from him. Like Inslee focusing his dead campaign on climate change giving greater attention to the issue to begin with, I feel Yang does the same thing for climate change on sub-topics.
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https://twitter.com/jamilsmith/status/1166326975331536896?s=21

what the fuck

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my conflict for debate attendance grows

i wanna trim the crowd... but then i also want more time to actually speak in the debates.... but the only chance of another candidate is tom fucking steyer

... and while 2 debates = more time... 2 debates means another chance of Biden dodging Warren's day *again*.... but 2 split days could also give Bernie more time/focus against Biden than he had in debate 1!

augh
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Ideal scenario is 5/6 person stage with Biden and Warren on the same day so thats what Im rooting for.

Honestly though even if they arent on the same day, it gives Warren more of a chance to introduce herself people that arent familiar with her yet and gives Biden less of a chance to hide.

More time for them to talk I think is best.
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Two more new polls today with Biden +7 and Biden +13. That plus seven looks close-ish to the other close polls we saw earlier this week, but we could also be settling in a Biden around +10 in the polling average. Which, while not great, is still better than it was a couple of months ago.

(Also in the general matchup we see polling for Biden +8 and Sanders +4, which is around what they usually run at. Everyone else is either tied with Trump or trailing him.)
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I found this interesting the other day:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joe-biden-has-an-iowa-problem-not-an-enthusiasm-problem/

tl;dr going through the polling, Biden's supporters are both enthusiastic and engaged in the process, at least as much as any other candidate. The good news (well, bad news for Biden), is that this is not true in Iowa, where polling shows his supporters are much less enthusiastic that for other top tier candidates. And if Biden falters in Iowa, someone like Warren has an actual chance to break through.
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Yeah Iowa and NH are not great for Biden demographically (though if he comes close his huge advantage in SC could help him recover).

Random question: how do we as a society decide whether to refer to a candidate by their first or last name? My current working theory is that the rule is to prioritize whichever name starts with a 'B' if applicable.

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ulsi is a literal seraph, an emissary of God
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... that could be it, since there's no other real explaining why we go with Buttigieg over Pete

though I guess how much everyone was having fun with how to pronounce his name early kinda contributed
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"The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 16 to 20, 2019 with 800 adults in the United States. Results in this release are based on 298 registered voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, which has a +/- 5.7 percentage point sampling margin of error. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ."

I figured as much that this was likely Dems they were polling. States with open primaries Biden is gonna smash. He is appealing to independents and moderate Republicans probably moreso than liberals at this point. He is basically wooing the middle while taking the left for granted.

The far left are more likely to support Bernie or Warren than Biden. This is why Biden always crushes the Trump theoretical matchup polls vs them. He isn't wooing the same voters. He knows those are for granted vs Trump.

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Corrik7 posted...

"The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 16 to 20, 2019 with 800 adults in the United States. Results in this release are based on 298 registered voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, which has a +/- 5.7 percentage point sampling margin of error. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ."

I figured as much that this was likely Dems they were polling. States with open primaries Biden is gonna smash. He is appealing to independents and moderate Republicans probably moreso than liberals at this point. He is basically wooing the middle while taking the left for granted.

The far left are more likely to support Bernie or Warren than Biden. This is why Biden always crushes the Trump theoretical matchup polls vs them. He isn't wooing the same voters. He knows those are for granted vs Trump.

People say stuff like this all the time, but remember the primaries Bernie actually won were all open primaries and he got buried in the closed ones.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Yeah Iowa and NH are not great for Biden demographically (though if he comes close his huge advantage in SC could help him recover).

Random question: how do we as a society decide whether to refer to a candidate by their first or last name? My current working theory is that the rule is to prioritize whichever name starts with a 'B' if applicable.

Basically however they brand themselves

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Random question: how do we as a society decide whether to refer to a candidate by their first or last name? My current working theory is that the rule is to prioritize whichever name starts with a 'B' if applicable.

I dunno about society, but I use last name 99% of the time. Beto is the exception just because he seems to prefer going by that? I dunno, I feel like using first names is too personal, like, I don't know these people personally! Though I think I used "Hillary" like once or twice in the past year or two here instead of "Clinton" like I usually do, probably to clarify which one I was referring to, but still!

I think last name is standard in society for a similar reason unless a nickname takes over or the person heavily encourages using their first name.
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Samurai7 posted...

Corrik7 posted...

"The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 16 to 20, 2019 with 800 adults in the United States. Results in this release are based on 298 registered voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, which has a +/- 5.7 percentage point sampling margin of error. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ."

I figured as much that this was likely Dems they were polling. States with open primaries Biden is gonna smash. He is appealing to independents and moderate Republicans probably moreso than liberals at this point. He is basically wooing the middle while taking the left for granted.

The far left are more likely to support Bernie or Warren than Biden. This is why Biden always crushes the Trump theoretical matchup polls vs them. He isn't wooing the same voters. He knows those are for granted vs Trump.

People say stuff like this all the time, but remember the primaries Bernie actually won were all open primaries and he got buried in the closed ones.

As nrr and I keep pointing out, Bernie polls the best among Republicans.
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I mean, Monmouth has used that polling method (looking at the democratic subset for the primary) the whole time. Biden had a -13 drop controlled for that, it's not something they did for lolz for a shocking result. Last time they polled was before the debates plus Biden's nonstop trip to gaffe city.
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And it's important to point out that Bernie has walked the walk on the single #1 most important issue for Republicans for decades - opposing the Democratic Party. Frankly, all the other stuff just pales in importance to this most important of all issues.
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oh man EVERYONE IS HERE

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/1166346019958906880

Martin O'Malley back in Iowa... to campaign for Beto
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xp1337 posted...

oh man EVERYONE IS HERE

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/1166346019958906880

Martin O'Malley back in Iowa... to campaign for Beto

are you feeling the o'magic
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Hillary will be the next to announce...
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Ivanka Trump 2024!
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