Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 201: A Caravan Down By the River

(+) Yeah! (+)

Inviso posted...

As I've said, I cannot ignore MWC for at LEAST another month. All the others though, yeah, they don't contribute anything of value.

It would be nice if hed post them

lol, antisemitic dude was put in purgatory again.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/community/sohottahere

good job admins.
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https://twitter.com/philip_elliott/status/1054451713992806401?s=21

President Trump just told reporters that he will lower middle-class taxes by 10% before the election. This is not possible. Congress is gone and will not be coming back before Election Day.

Bold strategy
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/philip_elliott/status/1054451713992806401?s=21

President Trump just told reporters that he will lower middle-class taxes by 10% before the election. This is not possible. Congress is gone and will not be coming back before Election Day.

Bold strategy

Trump himself said there will be no tax cut before the midterms.

https://www.theindychannel.com/news/national/trump-concedes-there-will-be-no-new-tax-cut-ahead-of-midterms
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Like, if I was going to be as pessimistic as possible, look at the Florida 26th.

If you go to Wikipedia and rank all their house districts by their Cook Partisan Voting Index, you can actually organize the table from most liberal to conservative districts:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

Go through and then find the most democratic districts currently represented by a republican. The first three are all PA, and those three are 100% democratic pickups. These districts were redrawn after a court ordered them to because they were originally gerrymandered for political reasons. The first on the list that isn't completely changed from 2016 is FL-26.

It is D +6 and represented by Carlos Curbelo. Curbelo is the sort of "great concern over this rhetoric kind of Republican", but he's voted with Trump 82% of the time so he isn't really a liberal Republican. And, if you were imaging a democratic wave kind of year, this should be one of the first casualties since he is in the most democratic district to be represented by a republican in the entire country.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/florida/26/

The two polls of the race this month both have him up 1.

Now, there are reasons for that and, sure, just because he wins it wouldn't mean that every republican in a more conservative district is necessarily safe. But it probably isn't a good time to put on your rose colored glasses just yet. Go out and vote. Make sure your friends vote. Don't be complacent. And don't be too surprised if things don't go the way you're expecting.

I think there are 14 change over seats they said are 100% Dems and every after that is going to be toss ups. And they need 19 or something to guarantee or flip. Numbers might be off but in either case, they have a very good shot to, but it is going to come down to individual races. Republicans obviously are going to pool their money where it needs to be and cede the ones that don't matter.

Before the fundraising I think Republicans had something like 50 million in their warchest to like 1 million for Dems so the money is there to use.

We were laughing at the Scott Wagner ad tonight. They are like in the dude to a mob boss. Not sure if Wagner is Dem or Republican but it was a funny ad. He is "strongarming" money out of taxpayers over their trash. Lol
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LetsGoMewtwo150 posted...

Are you comparing voting in a general election which is the LITERAL court of public opinion to any thing else?

I can believe you are a swamp monster or not like your shoes and not vote for you if I wanted.

For a crime they would have needed actual proof on Moore.

Hes icky probably is more than enough to not vote for him however

yeah you're probably right, "he's icky" should definitely be enough of a reason to not vote for someone
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Corrik posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/philip_elliott/status/1054451713992806401?s=21

President Trump just told reporters that he will lower middle-class taxes by 10% before the election. This is not possible. Congress is gone and will not be coming back before Election Day.

Bold strategy

Trump himself said there will be no tax cut before the midterms.

https://www.theindychannel.com/news/national/trump-concedes-there-will-be-no-new-tax-cut-ahead-of-midterms

Only had to be given 5 tries to get there.
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lordloki12 posted...

Corrik posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/philip_elliott/status/1054451713992806401?s=21

President Trump just told reporters that he will lower middle-class taxes by 10% before the election. This is not possible. Congress is gone and will not be coming back before Election Day.

Bold strategy

Trump himself said there will be no tax cut before the midterms.

https://www.theindychannel.com/news/national/trump-concedes-there-will-be-no-new-tax-cut-ahead-of-midterms

Only had to be given 5 tries to get there.

The first two replies to the tweet linked here make it clear. Not sure what the issue is here.
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Yeah its pretty clear he lied, got called out on it, flailed around trying to fix the lie, and then ended up back where he began.

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1054503698334969863

So I guess the issue would be the lie.
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lordloki12 posted...

Yeah its pretty clear he lied, got called out on it, flailed around trying to fix the lie, and then ended up back where he began.

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1054503698334969863

So I guess the issue would be the lie.

I want the tax cuts by November 1st.

We will be putting the resolution in a few weeks from now (he likely means the tax plan details and likely meant this above also).

We don't have the time to vote now. The vote itself won't be until after the actual midterms.

I mean I could be wrong, but that's what I see there.

He never says it will be voted in before the midterms. He just says he wants it by November 1st and says the resolution.

The whole point is to argue that voting Dem will cost you your tax cuts and vote Republican will give you them.

The tax cuts wouldn't really benefit me much if I think they would be how I think they mean to implement them.
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Nobody in Congress had any idea what he was talking about either

He totally made up the tax cut plan

(Also another huge tax cut when deficits are already projected to reach over $1T during full employment is complete insanity, but thats a separate issue)
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Taxes are going to be mess next year for the people that rely on them the most. Exemptions have been gutted across the board in favor of a larger standard deduction. Which is great for some people, but for people with extra dependents who can't itemize or don't have enough to justify itemization it's going to be a nightmare.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

Taxes are going to be mess next year for the people that rely on them the most. Exemptions have been gutted across the board in favor of a larger standard deduction. Which is great for some people, but for people with extra dependents who can't itemize or don't have enough to justify itemization it's going to be a nightmare.

Basically everyone is getting a significant amount back unless you itemize significantly.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Nobody in Congress had any idea what he was talking about either

He totally made up the tax cut plan

(Also another huge tax cut when deficits are already projected to reach over $1T during full employment is complete insanity, but thats a separate issue)

From what I understand he wants to drop the 22% tax bracket to 12%. But I am not entirely sure.
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Fuck it, might as well set a record deficit while were at it. MAGA
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https://twitter.com/ENBrown/status/1054503815548936192
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Corrik posted...

lordloki12 posted...

Yeah its pretty clear he lied, got called out on it, flailed around trying to fix the lie, and then ended up back where he began.

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1054503698334969863

So I guess the issue would be the lie.

I want the tax cuts by November 1st.

We will be putting the resolution in a few weeks from now (he likely means the tax plan details and likely meant this above also).

We don't have the time to vote now. The vote itself won't be until after the actual midterms.

I mean I could be wrong, but that's what I see there.

He never says it will be voted in before the midterms. He just says he wants it by November 1st and says the resolution.

The whole point is to argue that voting Dem will cost you your tax cuts and vote Republican will give you them.

The tax cuts wouldn't really benefit me much if I think they would be how I think they mean to implement them.

That's because you are ignoring the sequence and jumping straight to the end. He said a thing that was impossible and when told by the reporter that it was impossible he doubled down and gave the timeline of a week, week and a half, or two weeks. Still impossible and has to be reminded again that it can't happen in that time frame. If he had been telling the truth the correction comes the first time he is told that congress won't be in session. Of course the whole point was to get headlines saying he wants to give you a tax cut. That doesnt make what he said true and I'm just trying to help you recognize the lie. You should also question anything he claims will happen in two weeks.
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Not_an_Owl posted...

https://twitter.com/ENBrown/status/1054503815548936192

I hope he provided the props himself
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Not_an_Owl posted...

https://twitter.com/ENBrown/status/1054503815548936192

"After a back and forth they were not able to determine who was smarter so Alex stormed off."

is the greatest reply
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Not_an_Owl posted...

https://twitter.com/ENBrown/status/1054503815548936192

why is this so fucking funny
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I think Republican politicians are just terrified because for the first time ever cutting taxes isn't going to be rewarded at the ballot box and that's their entire playbook
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Kenri posted...

Not_an_Owl posted...

https://twitter.com/ENBrown/status/1054503815548936192

why is this so fucking funny

lmao is that legit his ex-wife commenting on that

god Alex Jones' life is so strange and sad
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lordloki12 posted...

Corrik posted...

lordloki12 posted...

Yeah its pretty clear he lied, got called out on it, flailed around trying to fix the lie, and then ended up back where he began.

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1054503698334969863

So I guess the issue would be the lie.

I want the tax cuts by November 1st.

We will be putting the resolution in a few weeks from now (he likely means the tax plan details and likely meant this above also).

We don't have the time to vote now. The vote itself won't be until after the actual midterms.

I mean I could be wrong, but that's what I see there.

He never says it will be voted in before the midterms. He just says he wants it by November 1st and says the resolution.

The whole point is to argue that voting Dem will cost you your tax cuts and vote Republican will give you them.

The tax cuts wouldn't really benefit me much if I think they would be how I think they mean to implement them.

That's because you are ignoring the sequence and jumping straight to the end. He said a thing that was impossible and when told by the reporter that it was impossible he doubled down and gave the timeline of a week, week and a half, or two weeks. Still impossible and has to be reminded again that it can't happen in that time frame. If he had been telling the truth the correction comes the first time he is told that congress won't be in session. Of course the whole point was to get headlines saying he wants to give you a tax cut. That doesnt make what he said true and I'm just trying to help you recognize the lie. You should also question anything he claims will happen in two weeks.

It is possible.
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No it isn't and that's the whole point.
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lordloki12 posted...

No it isn't and that's the whole point.

Okay. Then it isn't possible you could be correct. I will stop wasting my time with someone who is literally asking for someone to acknowledge they could be right. Saying it is possible they are right. And still arguing about it.

Like talk about arguing to argue.

If we don't see a tax cut proposal in a few weeks, then you were right. Otherwise, you were wrong. Time will tell. I mean... Duh.
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Corrik posted...

lordloki12 posted...

No it isn't and that's the whole point.

Okay. Then it isn't possible you could be correct. I will stop wasting my time with someone who is literally asking for someone to acknowledge they could be right. Saying it is possible they are right. And still arguing about it.

Like talk about arguing to argue.

If we don't see a tax cut proposal in a few weeks, then you were right. Otherwise, you were wrong. Time will tell. I mean... Duh.

You should have been more clear with your response then. Responding to a post telling you something is impossible by just saying it is possible doesnt convey the meaning you seem to think it does.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

Says itself that Republicans do generally outpace in this. But, I would be interested in whether the splits are higher than normal or not.
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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an interview with The New York Times on Sunday that he had been actively working on a plan with Brady, that would be unveiled "shortly."

"This is specifically focused on the middle class and not beyond that," Mnuchin said in the interview.

He did not offer any further details of what such a tax plan would entail or how it would be paid for.

Mnuchin noted that any plan in the works would be "different" than a bill that passed the House in September to make individual tax cuts permanent.
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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/01/economy/china-soybeans-trade-war/index.html
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Attempted terrorist attack at the home of George Soros.

I wonder what could have possibly inspired something like that
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Gee no clue
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Meanwhile, Trump continues trying really really hard to tick all of the dictionary definition "I'm a fascist" boxes with his "I'm a nationalist" bit at a rally yesterday.

Definition of fascism

1 often capitalized : a political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fascism

Perhaps someone angry that they have not been paid?!?!?

I have yet to talk to a single person who has gotten paid by Soros, despite all the internet promises!

>_> <_<
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Interesting 538 article that is actually relevant to our discussion yesterday:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-some-competitive-races-have-little-to-no-polling-thats-a-problem/

Not only are some races really underpolled (and overpolled) but some competitive races have little to no polling and that could prove to be an issue for their model.
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counterpoint: it's almost worth polling VA-10 for comic relief given the amount of money the Republicans continue to dump on that race

I mean, yeah, obviously more polling would be ideal but =/

Also, the article does ignore some issues there like how hard a place is to poll. That's true for North Dakota - which is somewhere the article implores people to poll. (Though it's also true IIRC with Nevada which has less of a problem given that table)

If your point is that 538's model shouldn't be taken as a hard fact - well, sure. But it's not meant to, it's probability. If your point is that we should doubt it... I'm not sure I'm willing to follow you there, at least not much past the inherent uncertainty reflected by the fact that it is, again, probability.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/dow-set-for-triple-digit-losses-at-the-open-amid-rising-global-tensions.html

Trade wars are comfy and easy to win amirite?

The usual idiots will continue to defend this shit, though.

Also, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-22/ford-says-trump-tariffs-makes-u-s-steel-costliest-in-the-world

I can't wait until people start torching their F-150s in protest.
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Here's a fun poll: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/412552-majority-of-republicans-say-the-support-medicare-for-all-poll

(caveat: yes, this is only one poll and does not necessarily represent the real distribution)
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The Georgia GOP candidate for governor (who is currently secretary of state, i.e. the person in charge of overseeing elections) is upset that Georgians are exercising their right to vote:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/brian-kemp-leaked-audio-georgia-voting-745711/
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Not_an_Owl posted...

The Georgia GOP candidate for governor (who is currently secretary of state, i.e. the person in charge of overseeing elections) is upset that Georgians are exercising their right to vote:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/brian-kemp-leaked-audio-georgia-voting-745711/

Same guy that oversaw the wiping of Georgia's central elections server and all backups after a lawsuit was filed and the contents of the server were subpoenaed btw

Reg posted...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/dow-set-for-triple-digit-losses-at-the-open-amid-rising-global-tensions.html

Trade wars are comfy and easy to win amirite?

The usual idiots will continue to defend this shit, though.

Also, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-22/ford-says-trump-tariffs-makes-u-s-steel-costliest-in-the-world

Oh no. The Dow index lost 100 points in a day. Circle the wagons! LMFAO. Do you even know how the stock market works? Hahaha
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Not_an_Owl posted...

Here's a fun poll: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/412552-majority-of-republicans-say-the-support-medicare-for-all-poll

(caveat: yes, this is only one poll and does not necessarily represent the real distribution)

I thought it was widely known that both parties support single payer medical.

Problem is no one knows how to pay for it.
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Maybe dont make tax cuts, overspend on the military, allow corporations to dodge taxes....

Hmm
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pxlated posted...

Maybe dont make tax cuts, overspend on the military, allow corporations to dodge taxes....

Hmm

I don't think you understand just how much it would cost. America's health Care system is basically the highest priced on the planet. You would have to eliminate so much of the budget that it would be insane.

The health Care system would need sweeping changes that might be impossiblento even implement to get there.

And, yes, I support a single payer system also. Just dunno how you can do it
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No, i have a pretty decent understanding of how fucked up and inflated the american health care system is. That should absolutely be massively reformed to coincide with universal health care.

The two things aren't mutually exclusive
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pxlated posted...

No, i have a pretty decent understanding of how fucked up and inflated the american health care system is. That should absolutely be massively reformed to coincide with universal health care.

The two things aren't mutually exclusive

How do you reform it without the government literally just seizing the industry. And medical wages dropping significantly. And without seizing drug companies and their development of drugs and so on.

I mean, there are some very massive implications to be had by it to get where we need to be to do it.
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yes, massive overhaul and goverment intervention/regulation is absolutely required. Prices are far inflated past the point they need to be to maintain their production and the livelihoods of the companies that produce them. Healthcare should not be a capitalist race to make the most money possible.

Do i know specifics of how to reform it? No. I don't need to. I'm not a politician. But i don't need to know specifics of how to reform something to know it needs to be reformed
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Corrik posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

Nobody in Congress had any idea what he was talking about either

He totally made up the tax cut plan

(Also another huge tax cut when deficits are already projected to reach over $1T during full employment is complete insanity, but thats a separate issue)

From what I understand he wants to drop the 22% tax bracket to 12%. But I am not entirely sure.

That would be amazing. Is there a way to do this other than using the nuclear option on the filibuster?
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Also if Trump wanted he could just fire the whole IRS and instruct the people to stop paying taxes because there will be no more enforcement. Or create DATE - Deferred Action on Tax Enforcement, based on DACA, which defers enforcement of tax law until Trump is out of office.
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As for the deficit, come on now, look at Trump's business record. We know the endgame he has used repeatedly to great effect. Bankruptcy. He can't talk about it, but we all know what the plan is.
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