Board 8 > Leonhart Analyzes the Bracket!

(+) Yeah! (+)

STElNER posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

also I kind of expect Nintendo to be on an upswing in general because of the Switch's positive reception here

I think Nintendo was kind of down the last few contests because this site soured on the Wii and never got on board with the Wii U.

good point, i wonder what character stands to gain the most from this

Enough with the useless posts already.

DAMN bro that's KING steiner you're talking to
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Im not impressed.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Also I'm sticking with DK > Tidus, just to keep DK's record of upsets and Tidus's record of first-round losses intact. I understand Leon loves FFX so he'll back Tidus out of favoritism alone if all else fails.

do you actually read what other people write or have you paid attention to DK's track record in these things

DK beating Lightning is only impressive because Falco was in the poll (and because of DK's own historic reputation for choking because most people expected him to fold) but that speaks more to her weakness than his strength. Tidus would beat Lightning easily, too.

STElNER posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

also I kind of expect Nintendo to be on an upswing in general because of the Switch's positive reception here

I think Nintendo was kind of down the last few contests because this site soured on the Wii and never got on board with the Wii U.

good point, i wonder what character stands to gain the most from this

the answer is Link
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Division 5

(1) Squall Leonhart
(4) Zelda

Listen, don't be dumb like LMS and not pay attention to anything I say, assuming I'm only picking Squall out of fanboyism here. Squall has looked stronger than Zelda in just about every single contest, plain and simple. If you're picking Zelda, you're banking on Squall dropping like FFVII (which we've not seen much evidence of as yet) or you're betting on some Breath of the Wild and/or general Nintendo boost. Zelda was good in Breath of the Wild, I ain't gonna lie. I might actually vote for her in a contest now (not this year though, because she's facing a bunch of good characters). So I'm not saying Zelda can't win (and I'll be afraid of this match until it happens because I always worry about Squall losing a match like this), but it would be an upset, ZeldaFAQs or not. They've not been on even footing in years past.

Winner: Squall
Odds: 65%

(11) Fox McCloud
(15) Aerith Gainsborough

Man, I don't know what to think of this match because there's no telling who will actually be here. I think Fox, Jill, Aerith, and even Waluigi can be solid midcarders. Again, this part of the bracket is pretty important because there are multiple legitimate winners, and I don't necessarily know how to analyze it. CBIX just muddled so much. I think 2013 Shepard beats all these guys, personally, so I guess I'd lean toward Aerith, but if FFVII is still in decline and Nintendo rises up, I think I'd give Fox the second best odds. I don't know though. Just trust your gut and roll with it here. I'd almost advise against thinking about this too much. Just pick a winner and then don't think about it ever again.

Winner: Aerith
Odds: 25%

Division 6

(8) Ryu Hayabusa
(4) Bayonetta

Whoever advances from the first fourpack probably beats whoever advances from the second fourpack...unless Hayabusa's here and it's the sprite round because that Ninja Gaiden sprite is bad for him. I'd give Geralt and Sans outside shots here because they're unknowns and also have rally potential, but I don't see someone like Pac-Man or Riku getting beyond this round. Bayonetta could if being top tier in Smash 4 and being on a Nintendo console in general has given her a nice boost, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Winner: Ryu Hayabusa
Odds: 30%

(3) Auron
(10) Sub-Zero

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2546-time-division-round-2-auron-vs-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3290-division-8-round-2-sonic-sandbag-auron-sub-zero

We've seen this match twice, so we already know how it goes. I think Auron's the clear favorite in this half of the division. The only thing that can really stop him is if Vincent reclaims his strength.

Winner: Auron
Odds: 70%
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The vast majority of competitive Smash players and a lot of people that watch competitive Smash dislike Bayonetta because of a combination of how good she is and how boring and oppressive she is to fight against or to watch.

I'm not convinced that means anything in terms of how she will perform in these contests since I don't know how much overlap there is between that fanbase and the GameFAQ's userbase, but I figured I'd mention it.
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Well, Meta Knight seems decently strong despite his Brawl dominance, but it was also worth more than Smash 4, I'd guess.
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Bayonetta is hated in a way that Meta Knight really wasn't. I don't really have a logical explanation for why, but that is what I've observed to be the case. My best guesses as to why are either that it's because she was DLC rather than being included in the base game and was perceived as having ruined a good thing, or because Bayonetta (unlike Brawl Meta Knight) has 0-to-death combos that could be executed with some consistency that were also relatively safe to attempt.

Again, I'm still not sure this actually means much for the Character Battle itself either way.
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Division 7

(1) Luigi
(4) Nathan Drake

Like Kirby, Luigi has a pretty smooth path to the division finals. No one in this part of the bracket other than Master Chief has ever been at Luigi's current level, and, well, LOL Master Chief.

Winner: Luigi
Odds: 95%

(3) Tifa Lockhart
(2) Mega Man X

This is a good match because both of them have shown near elite strength in the past. Mega Man X is the safe pick to hedge your bets since you know he's going to be here, and we're not sure if it'll be Tifa or Mewtwo here against him. All three of these characters have something to prove, so this part of the bracket is fantastic. I think more highly of Tifa than most, and I think Mega Man X is a little overrated, as I've said before. I think she's a good value pick here because she's being overlooked, and she absolutely can win. Not sure she should be considered the favorite, but I'm going with her.

Winner: Tifa
Odds: 25%

Division 8

(1) Sephiroth
(5) Amaterasu

Amaterasu always looks respectable and gets 40%+ in defeat. She'll probably do that again here and give people hope that Sephiroth will get upset next round. That's just what she does. Sephy has fallen, but he hasn't fallen nearly enough to lose this one.

Winner: Sephiroth
Odds: 100%

(3) Ryu
(10) KOS-MOS

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1743-chaos-division-round-1-kos-mos-vs-ryu

Fun Fact: SC2K4 winner Balrog0 nearly got a perfect bracket. This was the only match he missed. Don't be like Balrog0. Pick Ryu.

Winner: Ryu
Odds: 65%
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Yeah, I feel like maybe I'm the only one here that feels like Undertale has actually lived up to the hype? It feels like Undertale is still every bit as well-loved as it was when it first came out. And you've noted that the best way to squelch a rallied character is to feed it to something strong right away. Sans probably beats Pac-Man just on natural strength, and Bayonetta/Riku doesn't exactly instill confidence in me for stopping Sans in R2...and Geralt/Rosalina/Ryu H/Simon even less so in R3. I never know what to expect of recent, western games, so I have no read on Geralt, and apparently Simon's in Smash Ultimate now so he actually might stand a chance against Ryu H even though he's been pathetic in every match he's ever been in? I don't know; I just assumed that Rosalina would come out of that 4-pack because Nintendo keeps shoving her into every Mario spinoff and I figure she must have made it into Smash by now (I honestly haven't even been keeping up with recent news). If Geralt or Simon turn out to actually be legit, then maybe that stops the Sans train, but if I'm right and Rosalina really does triumph on sheer recognizability, she's definitely not stopping Sans.

Which leads us all the way to Round 4. Do I have confidence in Square to stop Sans? No, of course not; 3D Square is a huge anti-vote magnet due to the fact that it hasn't been good for quite some time and the perception that "Final Fantasy always wins" even when it rarely does. Honestly, out of the Auron/Vincent/Magus trio, Magus might actually stand the best chance against Sans, because Undertale is probably aimed more at the SNES demographic than the PS1/2 demographic. But Magus won't make it past Auron, if he even gets past Vincent, and even though I feel like Auron should beat Vincent as well if Vincent gets past Magus, I'm never confident taking FF-not-7 > FF7. And Auron probably does stand a good chance against Sans if Sans is still working primarily off of natural strength rather than rallies, I won't give Vincent that benefit.

So let's say that Sans actually does beat Auron. Suddenly he's in the double-elimination portion, and by now the rallies will definitely be there, but a strong enough opponent might still be able to stop him. Who does the Division 6 winner face? Sonic? Uh yeah Sans has that one. Luckily, Snake is up next, and that might actually be what's needed to stop him, but by that point, rallies might make it tough.

I almost feel weird having Sans go as deep as I have him and not taking him to win it all, because I know that he'll pick up steam as the rounds progress, but I do have him winning Division 6 and beating Sonic (twice, because lol at how Allen set up the double-elimination phase), but failing to win it all. And really, it's largely because I think he's been given a path to build up a run on. The top half of Division 6 is nothing but unproven commodities and washed-up has-beens.
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Yeah quite honestly I take Sans to get to R3 even in the complete absence of rallies, and the only reason I don't take him to R4 is because I evidently have significantly higher expectations of Rosalina than most people do.
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pyresword posted...

Bayonetta is hated in a way that Meta Knight really wasn't. I don't really have a logical explanation for why, but that is what I've observed to be the case. My best guesses as to why are either that it's because she was DLC rather than being included in the base game and was perceived as having ruined a good thing, or because Bayonetta (unlike Brawl Meta Knight) has 0-to-death combos that could be executed with some consistency that were also relatively safe to attempt.

Again, I'm still not sure this actually means much for the Character Battle itself either way.

You're right, it probably doesn't mean anything for the character battle.

pyresword posted...

Yeah quite honestly I take Sans to get to R3 even in the complete absence of rallies, and the only reason I don't take him to R4 is because I evidently have significantly higher expectations of Rosalina than most people do.

I've got Rosalina in R3 as well. My biggest concern is that she's getting "Wolverine Publicity" (that is to say, people are starting to feel like she's being forced into too much), but on the other hand, even people who aren't familiar with her will see her and realize "oh, must be a newer Mario character". And being part of one of Nintendo's major franchises is worth quite a bit.

But I'm sure there'll be lots of people spamming Sans quotes, because he's quite quotable.
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yeah I still don't know why people think Rosalina will be good
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LeonhartFour posted...

yeah I still don't know why people think Rosalina will be good

nintendo boobs
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she's not even well endowed though
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not according to all that hentai
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fortunately she won't be getting hentai in the match pics unless you manage to slip one past Allen again
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LeonhartFour posted...

fortunately she won't be getting hentai in the match pics unless you manage to slip one past Allen again

LeonhartFour posted...

again

Wait a minute am I interpreting this right
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well it wasn't hentai but it was absolutely fan art that gave Rikku much larger breasts than she actually has
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pyresword posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

fortunately she won't be getting hentai in the match pics unless you manage to slip one past Allen again

LeonhartFour posted...

again

Wait a minute am I interpreting this right

one of these things is not like the others
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oh right I forgot about that one too

yeah that Katherine pic actually was hentai wasn't it
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I think that Katherine pic was the alt Japanese boxart
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LeonhartFour posted...

well it wasn't hentai but it was absolutely fan art that gave Rikku much larger breasts than she actually has

i have the full version of this! i found it on my imgur account



it took literally an hour and a half to render this. the hair and ribbons were killer

worth it
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GranzonEx posted...

I think that Katherine pic was the alt Japanese boxart

is it?? i've had people telling me for YEARS it was hentai. i honestly do not remember. i just believed them. seems like something i'd do.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/xbox360/605301-catherine/images

I derped it's actually the 360 version of the cover lol, I remember seeing it in Japanese and assume that was the cover for them
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i've been exonerated of my crimes, thank you friend

leon now you can only kind of call me out instead of completely call me out
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I'm gonna go out on a limb and be a fanboy and say KH has risen a lot since 2013.

Not just because KH3, but I think the HD remixes were pretty instrumental in roping a lot of people back in (and probably new fans, but that's not as relevant here).

Well I'll probably sit on it for a week or two but that's one theory.
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Uh, she's not biting her finger or blushing, and she's not winking in the boxart.
So it's not the exact source
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those don't look like the same image since she has a finger in her mouth and a different expression in the match pic

is there actually an alternate cover

uh i have the image that is in the match pic and it is definitely hentai

G
U
l
L
T
Y
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ZenOfThunder posted...

i've been exonerated of my crimes, thank you friend

leon now you can only kind of call me out instead of completely call me out

don't worry Zen you're doing God's work
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well to be precise, the actual image that is cropped in the match pic is more like lewd fanart/ecchi but there is an alternate version of that image where it would be referred to as 'hentai'

I suppose Undertale getting ported to PS4 and Switch since the last contest would help it here.
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welp guess i'm back off the wagon

thanks guys

can't wait to see what the Metal Sonic Army is going to make me turn into match pics
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guffguy89 posted...

God of War reboot could boost Kratos enough to challenge Pikachu.

no no no no no no no no no

So why do people think Sans without rallying (sans rallying?) is worth, like, anything? His game might be well-respected in general but I dont think gamefaqs ever really took to it and theres a sizable contingent on this site that, somewhat jokingly maybe, hates it to this day because of 2015. Even that aside, a 2016 poll had 3/4ths of the site disliking it or not being interested.

Pac-man might be getting underestimated a little here? Hes has close matches over the years with Ocelot, Nathan drake, and old school lettuce kefka. Not great opponents but Id never consider Sans over any of them unless I expected a rally.

And available or not, it doesnt look like many here actually got the game on ps4/switch.
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Yeah, Pac-Man is always decent (unless he's facing an icon and then he just folds), but if you feel like the character is worth anything, you should probably take them to beat Pac-Man.
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what is Pac-Man's ceiling? Revolver Ocelot? That isn't much, even post-Smash boost (if Smash boost even means anything anymore, there's like 70 of those guys)
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I've said for a while that Pac-Man should just be the fodder line. If you can't beat him, you suck.
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I agree Undertale isn't exactly this site's typical game, but there's a certain threshold beyond which that stops mattering. Among the general gaming population I suspect Undertale is significantly more popular now that it was even during the 2015 contest.

For reference if you give this same bracket to a generic gaming community I would predict Sans to make it out of this division with relative ease. Me instead predicting him to barely scrape by until losing to Rosalina or Auron or whatever is already accounting for Undertale not being a game which GameFAQ's takes to.
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Leon, where are your hourly charts? it looks like sc2k5's kinda dead
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I could buy that being Rikku with an Al-Bhed wonderbra.
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LeonhartFour posted...

the answer is Link

it was meant to be obvious but thanks

transience posted...

Leon, where are your hourly charts? it looks like sc2k5's kinda dead

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NZSFYa6CpacbjZf5jK6orhE7Xtn42ksEFFQEUfzYIj0/edit#gid=1468623839

I've actually been updating them because I realized for some reason I never included CBIX's on there.

SC2K5 had something weird happen recently. The data hasn't been lost. If you have the right link, you can still get to it, but all of the links on the site itself are broken. I guess we can get cn to fix it once he comes back for the contest.
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STElNER posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

the answer is Link

it was meant to be obvious but thanks

I mean you could've meant any number of characters...!
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AxemRedRanger posted...

So why do people think Sans without rallying (sans rallying?) is worth, like, anything? His game might be well-respected in general but I dont think gamefaqs ever really took to it and theres a sizable contingent on this site that, somewhat jokingly maybe, hates it to this day because of 2015. Even that aside, a 2016 poll had 3/4ths of the site disliking it or not being interested.

Pac-man might be getting underestimated a little here? Hes has close matches over the years with Ocelot, Nathan drake, and old school lettuce kefka. Not great opponents but Id never consider Sans over any of them unless I expected a rally.

And available or not, it doesnt look like many here actually got the game on ps4/switch.

Sans is a legitimately popular from a popular game, and even Smash fans think of Pac-Man as "oh, he's there I guess". During Smash 4 prerelease, once it was revealed Namco was the developer, people just assumed Pac was in the game, and he was, not much hyped at all. They even put Palutena in the E3 presentation instead of him! He's just not that popular from what will likely be his biggest support base.

Also, Sans is a Smash meme, for what that's worth.
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thanks. it's crazy how long it's been since a 1v1 character battle. it's been as long from now to then, as from then to 2002
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transience posted...

thanks. it's crazy how long it's been since a 1v1 character battle. it's been as long from now to then, as from then to 2002

wow I hadn't thought of it like that until you said that

man it really has been a long time
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For what it's worth, I'm not sure Undertale's fanbase is strong enough to pull what it did in 2015. Almost 2 years of no content will do that, with only the small bits provided in the PS4/Switch ports as fandom input isn't enough to keep the fanbase from running at that high speeds. Of course, it's still popular, but I don't think it could beat RBY in 2018. (Well, maybe it could due to LGPE anger. Still though, wouldn't beat Melee.) For the same reason, I doubt Monika will have the flame to pull a rally.

Now Bowser on the other hand...
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